Betting news and notes for Saturday, October 15 from OffshoreInsiders.com

🔥Despite having the nation’s top defense, allowing just 8 points per game, Illinois is getting 6.5 at home

🔥Kansas likely will be without starting QB Jalen Davis 

🔥Alabama QB Bryce Young, many believe best in country, likely to return 

🔥FSU leading rusher Treshuan Ward is questionable. He has 72 carries for 488 yards

🔥Teams laying at least 4 points despite at least two more losses are 181-137-4. Favors Oklahoma, FAU

🔥Iowa State is young and off three straight losses by a mere combined 11 points

🔥Kentucky star QB and to NFL prospect Will Levis is expected to play, trying to break a two-game losing streak 

🔥UConn will be juiced looking for first three-game SU winning streak since 2015

🔥Auburn-Ole Miss series under four straight by an average of 15.9 points per game 

🔥James Madison top ATS team in record and spread margin going 5-0 by average of 14.5 points per game 

🔥Fresno State is 0-5 failing to cover by an average of -15.1 points per game 

🔥Ohio over 5-1 by 15 points per game 

 💰💰💰Top expert pick:  What a day it is off 3-1 overall including MLB dogs Indians, Padres. I am 5-1 in the playoffs and more coming today! Five Wise Guys among nine bets. ACC Total of the Year. Alert! All four MLB sides added for today. After today’s portfolio, I will be 9-1 in the postseason. Let that sink in! Get the picks now 

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Washington (P, 38)-Chicago

🏈Opened: Washington -1.5, 40.5

🏈Side: 61% of bets, 62% of cash on Commanders 

🏈OU: 60% of tickets, stunning 84% of money on UNDER

Temple-UCF (-23.5, 46)

🏈Opened: UCF -23.5, 58.5

🏈Side: 60% of bets, stunning 93% of money on Temple

🏈OU: 89% of tickets, but just 43% of handle on UNDER

Baylor (-3, 55)-West Virginia 

🏈Opened: Baylor -2.5, 62.5

🏈Side:67% of bets, 56% of money on Baylor 

🏈OU: 54% of tickets, 87% of cash on OVER 

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****Friday in college footsies it’s Friday Night Total of the Year. Another massive Saturday has ACC Total of the Year among seven winners, three Wise Guys. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. So get Bet it Trinity or Joe Duffy’s Picks (includes football only weekly) seven-day pick pack or longer.

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We always talk about the perennial parity in the NFL, and the exact opposite when it comes to college football. 

Well, the latest CFP Championship odds paint an ominous picture for the pigskin lovers who pine for parity.

SportsBetting  set odds on any other team besides Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia winning the title. Outlook…not good.

2023 CFP National Champion

Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State -1000

Field (Any Other Team) +550

The above odds equate to a 90.9% implied probability that one of the three top-ranked teams will take home the title, leaving less than a 10% chance any other team pulls off an upset.

One of these teams has won the CFP Championship in five of its eight years of existence. 

And the latest odds from the website show a fresh favorite as Ohio State slides into the top spot for the first time all season.

Outside of the “Big 3” no other team has odds better than 14-1. And every team not listed below has odds of 200-1 or worse.

2023 CFP National Champion

Ohio State                   2-1       (+200)

Georgia                       9-4       (+225)

Alabama                      5-2       (+250)

Clemson                      14-1     

Michigan                     14-1     

USC                             20-1     

Tennessee                   33-1     

Oklahoma State          55-1     

Oregon                        55-1     

Ole Miss                      66-1     

TCU                             75-1     

Texas                           75-1     

UCLA                           75-1     

Penn State                  100-1   

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Saturday, October 15 free winning picks to crush Bovada

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -13 Akron

Fade poor first half teams at home if they are off a high-scoring games is 593-427. Fade home underdogs with bad defenses is 191-124. Terrible road teams not big underdogs to a team at least .400 at home is 265-186. Road teams at least three games under .500 yet laying at last 13 are 16-5 ATS since 1988, 21-0 SU. 

TEXAS -16 Iowa State

Momentum angle that says to ride team off a dominant win is 550-415-29. 

SYRACUSE -3.5 NC State

Momentum angle that says to ride team off a dominant win is 550-415-29. 

Week 7 College Football Picks ATS

Joe Duffy is loaded for another winning weekend. Two Thursday CFB totals, NFL Thursday Night NFL Game of the Year! Friday in college footsies it’s Friday Night Total of the Year. Another massive Saturday has ACC Total of the Year among seven winners, three Wise Guys. Get the picks now 

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Week 5 NFL betting market report, line moves, weather, injuries from the clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: San Francisco 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Tampa -8 to -10

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Philadelphia; Baltimore UNDER, LA Rams UNDER 

🖥NFL both AFC and NFC Totals of the Year among nine NFL. Most go early, so buy now! We are a nice 9-6 this week including only NFL. Yeah, generally we beat the line moves, but some of you did even better if you didn’t get down too early on TCU total. Get the picks now 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

Weather:

Chargers-Browns winds 15 mph 

Steelers-Bills winds 18 mph 

Injuries:

🔥Fins Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle probable

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Saturday super sharp betting college football report! Line moves, who is the public betting on, contrarian intel!

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Air Force, Duke, Michigan; Wyoming OVER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Air Force, Eastern Michigan; Northern Illinois UNDER, Vanderbilt UNDER 

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Kentucky -10.5 to -5.5, Buffalo +2.5 to -2, Miss State -6 to -9.5, Louisville -4.5 to -1.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Southern Miss

🖥 Trinity 3 day normally $152, massive sale for just $126! Despite wacko finish to Houston Cougars game, we are 2-1 in football for the week and just getting started. Four college football Wise Guys among 12 winners. Big 12 and MAC Totals of the Year, C-USA GOY lead the way for Joe Duffy’s Picks! Get the picks now 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Russell Wilson says he has to be “better” in order for the Broncos to be successful. 

But Wilson’s best may still not be enough to save the job of his head coach. 

Nathaniel Hackett is now the odds-on favorite to be fired first this season, according to SportsBetting 

On Wednesday, Matt Rhule was the favorite to be canned, but after Thursday night’s dismal performance, Hackett, who had 6-1 odds earlier this week, is the overwhelming leader in the clubhouse. 

First Coach Fired                                 

Nathaniel Hackett       1-2       (-200)

Matt Rhule                  2-1       

Frank Reich                 9-1       

Kliff Kingsbury             12-1     

Ron Rivera                   16-1     

Josh McDaniels           18-1     

Dan Campbell             20-1     

Dennis Allen                25-1     

Lovie Smith                 33-1     

Mike Tomlin                33-1     

Kevin Stefanski            40-1     

Mike Vrabel                40-1     

Matt Eberflus              50-1     

Mike McCarthy           50-1     

Robert Saleh               55-1     

Pete Carroll                 66-1     

Another sportsbook, Betonline set odds for Odell Beckham’s next team, and the injured wideout jokingly chimed in on the projections via Twitter: 

Buffalo, not the Chargers, have shifted to the favorite position for the current odds.

Odell Beckham Jr. Next Team                                   

Bills                 3-1       

Chargers          7-2       

Rams               4-1       

Giants              5-1       

Bucs                6-1       

Packers            6-1       

Chiefs              8-1      

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Thursday, October 6, 2022

Indianapolis-Denver (-3 -120, 42)

Obviously +3.5 can be had and should get at -120 or less

🏈Opened -3, 43.5

🏈Side: 64% of bets and 68% of money on Colts

🏈OU: 70% of bets and 87% of money on UNDER

🔥Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor is out, plus they have key injuries on defense 

🔥Denver QB Russell Wilson 29-14-4 off loss, 15-7-2 home in primetime, both records ATS

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Don Mattingly and Tony LaRussa stepped away from their respective managerial jobs in Miami and Chicago, and Mike Matheny was relieved of his duties in Kansas City yesterday.

SportsBetting has set odds on who will be named the next full-time managers for the Marlins, Royals and White Sox, which you can find below.

Bruce Bochy is favored to come out of retirement and man the talented White Sox.

Joe Maddon is the favorite to return to Florida while Carlos Beltran is at the top of the Royals list after starting his career in K.C.

White Sox Next Manager                  

Bruce Bochy                5-1

Sandy Alomar Jr.         6-1

Carlos Beltran             7-1

Matt Quatraro            15-2

Fredi Gonzalez            8-1

Joe Espada                  9-1

Miguel Cairo               10-1

Joe Girardi                   12-1

A.J. Pierzynski             14-1

George Lombard         16-1

Willie Harris                16-1

Joe Maddon                18-1

Ozzie Guillen               18-1

A.J. Hinch                    20-1

Curtis Granderson      20-1

Eduardo Perez            20-1

Jim Thome                  20-1

Mike Shildt                  20-1

Chris Getz                    25-1

Marlins Next Manager                       

Joe Maddon                4-1

Bruce Bochy                5-1

Miguel Cairo               6-1

Joe Espada                  7-1

Willie Harris                15-2

Raul Ibanez                 8-1

Joe Girardi                   9-1

Matt Quatraro            10-1

Fredi Gonzalez            12-1

Sandy Alomar Jr.         12-1

Jim Thome                  14-1

Curtis Granderson      16-1

George Lombard         16-1

Mike Shildt                  18-1

A.J. Hinch                    20-1

Royals Next Manager             

Carlos Beltran             4-1

Joe Espada                  5-1

George Lombard         6-1

Matt Quatraro            7-1

Mike Shildt                  15-2

Bruce Bochy                8-1

Walt Weiss                  10-1

Ozzie Guillen               11-1

Dusty Wathan             12-1

Miguel Cairo               16-1

Joe Girardi                   18-1

Joe Maddon                20-1

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LIV Golf Invitational Bangkok
October 7 – 9, 2022
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Purse $20,000,000

Cameron Smith +430
Dustin Johnson +460
Joaquin Niemann +460
Louis Ooshuizen +720
Talor Gooch +1450
Sergio Garcia +1575
Bryson Dechambeau +1975
Abraham Ancer +2100

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