All posts by Joe Duffy

Monday News and Notes

Monday, June 19, 2006

 

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MLB

·       
R Johnson has an 8-2 personal and 10-5 team
record to Philadelphia

·       
Arroyo 8-3 personal record, 10-4 team and a 2.51
ERA

·       
J Johnson (Clev) 3-7
personal, 4-9 team record, 6.00 ERA

·       
NYY over 10-5 with R
Johnson

·       
Detroit
under 9-4 with Bonderman

·       
Milwaukee
10-5 with Davis

 

World Cup

Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com private
clipboard.  They are compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases.

Togo-Switzerland

Aljazeera.net

There has been drama ahead of the match, as has been the
case with Togo
throughout the tournament, with the Africans threatening to boycott the match
over ongoing pay disputes. FIFA has since stepped in
and Togo will
play at the Westfalenstadion in Dortmund,
but their preparation has been disrupted due to missing their scheduled flight.

With coach Otto Pfister walking
out on the squad three days before their first match against South
Korea
only to return on the eve of the game,
you would think the worst was behind Togo.
Apoel defender Jean-Paul Abalo
will miss the match through suspension, with the Sparrow Hawks again set to
rely on big games from Arsenal forward Emmanuel Adebayor
and first match goal scorer Mohamed Kader. Switzerland
played out a 0-0 draw with former World Champions France in their opening match
with the defensive aspect of their team looking very much on song.

Saudi Arabia-Ukraine

Monstersandcritics.com

Though before the tournament began the East Europeans were
a Group H co-favourite, the Ukrainians go into the
game against Saudi Arabia
damaged, coming off a 4-0 drubbing by Spain
last week, and coach Oleg Blokhin
facing with tough roster problems, especially in the defence.
The Saudis in contrast are healthy and playing some of their best football ever
in an international tournament, although the side must still be regretting its Wednesday draw to Tunisia,
losing the game’s lead in the final minutes. Saudi
Arabia
coach Marcos Paqueta
singled out weather as a critical factor in the upcoming tie, expressing fears
falling temperatures in Hamburg
could cut into the performance of his team. ‘I like the rain but I don’t want
to play in the rain,’ Paqueta said. ‘Playing in rain
is very dangerous for us. I need the sun to come out for us.’ Germany’s
heat wave fell off as the week end approached, to be replaced by cool temperatures
and intermittent rain. Saudi players preparing for the Ukraine
match on Friday were wearing clothes suitable for the Middle Eastern winter,
including sweat shirts, jackets, long trousers and even ski caps. The
Ukrainians ran aground against Spain
last week, in part, after players and staff abandoned the side’s traditional
high-energy pressing tactics because of fears of exhaustion in face of 30
degree temperatures prevailing at the time.

Spain-Tunisia

NZHerald.com

Spain
are out to prove that their scintillating start to the
World Cup was no fluke when they play Tunisia
in their second Group H match. Luis Aragones’ side
dismantled much-fancied Ukraine
4-0 on Friday, raising hopes that, after half a century of World Cup
underachievement, 2006 could be their year. The comprehensive nature of Spain’s
victory, which extended their unbeaten run to 23 games, means Aragones is unlikely to make any changes to the starting
XI. Tunisia, who needed a last-gasp goal from defender Radhi
Jaidi to snatch a 2-2 draw against Saudi Arabia in
their opening game, are confident they can produce a much-improved performance
against the group leaders.  

Once more Tunisia
will have to do without injured leading striker Francileudo
dos Santos. The Brazilian-born
player, who has scored 18 goals in 28 matches, is out with a shin injury. Their
French coach, Roger Lemerre, believes qualification
will rest on his side’s final match against Ukraine
and has hinted that he may rest some players.  

Now at their fourth World Cup finals, Tunisia
have won just one of their previous 10 games (when
they beat Mexico
3-1 in their debut in Argentina
in 1978).

Father’s Day Sports Service Rundown

Sunday, June 18, 2006

The roll continues. 
America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com wins yet
again Saturday led by Wise Guy on Oakland.
The latest run has The Center of the Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com at 16-5 with eight
dog winners of 125 or more.
 

Going back even further, Wise Guy plays are 8-1 the last
nine.  We have NBA and MLB Wise Guy plays
among seven winners. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 
Early Bird Special for football season is up now for
a SAVINGS $1,695.
Details
are at JoeDuffy.net

Don’t forget our three-day pass for $45 or our four-day
package at a huge discount of $55.  You can always pre-buy our plays.  That way the plays are emailed to you the
split second we are done or you can just use your password which is activated
all day. Joe Duffy is the first and only person to earn the title of Master Handicapper. The Wise Guy moves
originate here.

#

 

 

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HEADLINE: Yet another winning day on Alliance as the power of 620
handicappers goes 3-1.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

·       
EXCLUSIVE: 
Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of
the famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for
years has now taken over the North American sports scene. They went 2-0 yesterday with
Colorado-over and
Oakland over.  They have two
steam plays today

·       
Godspicks.com is far and away the No.
1 sports service all-time, all-sports combined total
net units won going back to their scorephone “Cadillac Club” 900 number roots. Stats
are out of 620 services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based
on ONE unit per play.  They have a Wise Guy baseball Dandy Dog

·       
Veteran handicapping consultant but
newcomer to his own service, Stevie Vincent of
KnockoutPicks.com has
already drawn comparisons to the all-time Vegas legends Pete Axthelm,
Joe Duffy, Bob Martin, Jimmy the Greek and Roxy Roxborough. We pass along his Level 5
plays.  Clearly he has established
himself as the No. 1 over/under handicapper but his game sides are elite as
well. 
He
has two Level 5 pro baseball Sunday

·       
Castlegate Sports is
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more than 1,000 documented plays.  They
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services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per
play.  We have their Postseason Parlay of the Decade Dallas/Miami
.   

  

 

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#

 

 

6-18-06

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Sunday Godspicks

Sunday, June 18, 2006

The roll continues. 
America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com wins yet
again Saturday led by Wise Guy on Oakland.
The latest run has The Center of the Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com at 16-5 with eight
dog winners of 125 or more.
 

Going back even further, Wise Guy plays are 8-1 the last
nine.  We have NBA and MLB Wise Guy plays among seven
winners.
Three are Dandy Dog winners. Dandy dogs are dogs of 140 or
more in MLB. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 
Early Bird Special for football season is up now for
a SAVINGS $1,695.
Details
are at JoeDuffy.net

MLB

WHITE SOX (GARLAND +115) Cincinnati
(Harang)

The Sox are an uncanny 21-3 this year to teams that allow
.35 or fewer stolen bases per game. The Reds have lost 7-of-8. The Sox are
34-16 the last two years as a road dog +27.2 units. Aaron Harang
has a 6.51 home ERA.

SUNDAY KNOCKOUTPICKS.COM

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6-18-06
SUNDAY SPECIAL: Purchase the weekly, monthly or three month packages and get an equivalent subscription to the online betting syndicate AllianceHandicapping.com FREE.
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Knockout Picks is a revolutionary new site using the science of forensic handicapping. Premium selections are rated Level 1 to Level 5. They are available for $25 per day, cheaper long term.
Your URL for the new revolution in handicapping is http://www.knockoutpicks.com/
YOU HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE OF HANDICAPPING ARRIVE. WE HAVE REACHED THE POINT WHERE EVERYONE WHO WANTS TO WIN NOW CAN THANKS TO KNOCKOUTPICKS.COM.
Remember the Great One has already clearly established himself as the top totals handicapper on the World Wide Web and baseball is perhaps his best sport knowing walks/hits per game is the most important statistic.
FORENSIC HANDICAPPER STEVIE VINCENT HAS BECOME THE TALK OF THE HANDICAPPING WORLD CHANGING THE COMPLEXION OF HANDICAPPING AS HE PROMISED.
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Knockout Picks is a revolutionary new site using the science of forensic handicapping. Premium selections are rated Level 1 to Level 5. They are available for $25 per day, cheaper long term.
>>>LEVEL 3 PLAY is on Baltimore/Mets OVER
Forensic team and pitching information on this game: last 3 appearances for each pitcher: Loewen 7.31 ERA, 18.00 walks/hits per game, Glavine 6.38 ERA, 15.13 walks/hits per game, Loewen for the year 8.71 road, 7.84 all

Sunday Trends



Sunday, June 18, 2006

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net.
 We start the week with advanced news and
notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com . Then on game day
(starting around midnight Friday and Saturday nights for the next day’s action)
it’s top computer trends from
forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com,
live weather radar, sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late
breaking injuries on game day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports
information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net 

MLB

·       
Fogg 1-8 personal, 1-9
team lifetime record to St. Louis

·       
Pettitte 8-3 team record to KC

·       
Sele 13-7 personal
record to Oakland

·       
St. Louis under 8-4 with Carpenter

·       
Toronto 11-2 with Halladay 2.75 ERA

·       
Florida under 8-4 with Johnson

·       
Mets 12-2 with Glavine

·       
Minnesota 10-4 with Santana

·       
Pittsburgh 2-11 with Perez

·       
Tampa 3-11 with McClung whose ERA is 6.54

·       
Philadelphia 8-2 with Madson

·       
Cleveland over 9-4 with Byrd

·       
Texas under 11-3 with Loe

·       
Rogers 9-3 personal record, starts under 10-3

·       
All six Sele starts
over despite his 2.32 ERA

 

Personal record is a pitcher’s record in his decisions
including relief appearances.  Team
record is how the team did in his starts whether or not he was involved in the
decision.

Who’s Hot and Who Has the Big Play Saturday?

Saturday, June 17,
2006

·       
ADDING STEAM: We now have eight MLB
winners including our first runline of the year!

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com wins yet
again Friday.

Ø      We are 10-1 our last 11.

Ø     
Five of the winners were dogs of 130, making it
the financial equivalent of nearly 14-1
in the NFL

We have eight
baseball winners including a Wise Guy dog. 
We also have the Game 6 Stanley Cup winner. We go to 16-1 (but better
according to your wallet) as all of our picks are small favorites or underdogs.

The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 
Early Bird Special for football season is up now for a SAVINGS $1,695. Details are at JoeDuffy.net  

Early Bird Special for football season is up now for
All Bet it Trinity sites featured at JoeDuffy.net: Godspicks.com, KnockoutPicks.com  and AllianceHandicapping.com

#

 

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Saturday, June 17, 2006

·       
Exclusive feature: We’ve developed data mining
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in the same side. When Bill Tanner,
KnockoutPicks.com and Castlegate
Sports
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software has found

·       
The Dutchman is a former professional tout who
in 1996 retired to a Hawaiian getaway. However the Dutchman still bets up to
$10,000 per game and in an EXCLUSIVE he must report by contractual agreement
every 10K personal real money best bet. He releases about 15 or so per year. He
has another today and it’s exclusively here his first 10 dime bet in four months

·       
EXCLUSIVE:  Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the
famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years
has over the last two months taken over the North American sports scene.  They have two steam plays today

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6-17-06

SATURDAY SPECIAL: Purchase
the weekly, monthly or three month packages and get an equivalent subscription
to the online betting syndicate AllianceHandicapping.com
FREE.

STEVIE HAS 2 LEVEL 5 PRO BASEBALL PLAYS FOR SATURDAY AND A
LEVEL 4 PLUS A 3,2, &1!
Level 5 plays just don’t ever lose anymore it seems.
Level 4 and Level 3 plays are each also above 65%.

Knockout
Picks
is a revolutionary new site using the science of forensic handicapping.  Premium selections are rated Level 1 to Level 5.  They are available for $25 per day, cheaper long term.
 

Your URL for the new revolution in handicapping is http://www.knockoutpicks.com/ 

Saturday Godspicks

Saturday, June 17,
2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com wins yet
again Friday.

Ø      We are 10-1 our last 11.

Ø     
Five of the winners were dogs of 130, making it
the financial equivalent of nearly 14-1
in the NFL

We have five baseball winners including a Wise Guy
dog.  We also have the Game 6 Stanley Cup
winner. We go to 16-1 (but better according to your wallet) as all of our picks
are small favorites or underdogs.

The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. 
Early Bird Special for football season is up now for a SAVINGS $1,695. Details are at JoeDuffy.net  

MLB

SEATTLE (MECHE +140) San Francisco
(Schmidt)

SPECIFY BOTH PITCHERS. In location comparison (home team’s
home stats, road team’s road stats) and location comparison (home pitcher’s
home stats, road pitcher’s road stats) Seattle
has the edge. Seattle is three
games above .500 at home, while San Francisco
is one game above.  True the advantage is
small but surprisingly they have a bit of an edge pitching in location
comparison too. Meche has a 2.25 home ERA with a
1.025 WHIP.

Seattle is
14-5 their last 19 at home. Going with underdogs of 125-175 with an offense
that strikes out six or fewer times per game and a defense that has gone 10
straight games without making more than one error is +86.7 units.

Top 3 Sites With Early Bird Specials

Bet
It Trinity Sites Announce Early Bird Specials

Address for site: http://www.joeduffy.net/

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website:  Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com,
KnockoutPicks.com
  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Saturday, June 17,
2006

“Top 3 Handicapping Websites on the Web
Announce Joint and Individual Early Bird Specials”

PLAINVIEW, NY–The
Bet it Trinty sites
featured at JoeDuffy.net:
Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com, KnockoutPicks.com  have announced “Early Bird Special” prices for
football season.  This includes a Universal
Pass
: all three sites, starting with the Hall of Fame
game until the Super Bowl
for just $3,999.

All three sites and the Universal
Pass
will be:

v    
Activated Sunday, August 6 and run through the
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v    
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No one ever loses a day when renewing early for any Bet it Trinity site

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Include all sports: college and pro football,
college and pro basketball, baseball and hockey

Site

Daily Retail

Price

Early Bird

Price

Savings

Godspicks.com

$3,043

$1,348

$1,695

KnockoutPicks.com  

$4,475

$2,499

$1,976

AllianceHandicapping.com

$2,148

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$1,398

Universal Pass (all 3)

$9,666

$3,999

$5,667

 

As our credit card company limits us to $999 per
transaction, to get the package for Godspicks.com, please purchase BOTH the $999
and the $349 monthly and we will manually add you. AllianceHandicapping.com
can be purchased in one credit card transaction. KnockoutPicks.com
and the Universal pass must use alternate
forms of payment
as listed at JoeDuffy.net.
 This includes personal check, money order, cashier’s check made payable to AJA Enterprises, 3000 Old
Alabama Road, Suite 119
205, Alpharetta, GA 30022 

Alliancehandiapping.com gives you the highest rated plays from the
highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search our
database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones,
television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip
sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a
fraction of the cost.

Godspicks.com is America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. Joe
Duffy is the most published author on gaming strategy and is a true legend in
handicapping since his JD of the ACC scorephone days.  Partner Mike Godsey is without question the
top NFL handicapper.

KnockoutPicks.com
is led by forensic
handicapper
 Stevie Vincent. The Great One is the original Executive
Editor of the famed scorephone “Tailgate Party”

 


Saturday Knockoutpicks.com

6-17-06
SATURDAY SPECIAL: Purchase the weekly, monthly or three month packages and get an equivalent subscription to the online betting syndicate AllianceHandicapping.com FREE.
STEVIE HAS 2 LEVEL 5 PRO BASEBALL PLAYS FOR SATURDAY AND A LEVEL 4 PLUS A 3,2, &1!Level 5 plays just don’t ever lose anymore it seems. Level 4 and Level 3 plays are each also above 65%.
Knockout Picks is a revolutionary new site using the science of forensic handicapping. Premium selections are rated Level 1 to Level 5. They are available for $25 per day, cheaper long term.
Your URL for the new revolution in handicapping is http://www.knockoutpicks.com/
YOU HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE OF HANDICAPPING ARRIVE. WE HAVE REACHED THE POINT WHERE EVERYONE WHO WANTS TO WIN NOW CAN THANKS TO KNOCKOUTPICKS.COM.
Remember the Great One has already clearly established himself as the top totals handicapper on the World Wide Web and baseball is perhaps his best sport knowing walks/hits per game is the most important statistic.
FORENSIC HANDICAPPER STEVIE VINCENT HAS BECOME THE TALK OF THE HANDICAPPING WORLD CHANGING THE COMPLEXION OF HANDICAPPING AS HE PROMISED.
Get the Universal Pass: You can now purchase TOTAL ACCESS to the top three sites on the Net, the Bet It Trinity Stevie’s Vincent’s Knockout Picks, top sports service plays at Alliance Handicapping, and the world’s greatest sports service God’s Picks for more than 50 percent off the daily price. You get access to all three. Buy here or at any of the Bet It Trinity sites.
Knockout Picks is a revolutionary new site using the science of forensic handicapping. Premium selections are rated Level 1 to Level 5. They are available for $25 per day, cheaper long term.
>>>LEVEL 1 PLAY is on CINCINNATI over White Sox
Forensic team and pitching information on this game: last 3 appearances for each pitcher: Milton 2.08 ERA, 7.48 walks/hits per game, Contreras 13.55 walks/hits per game, 4.95 ERA

When To Specify Pitchers

When to Specify Pitchers in Betting Baseball

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a
baseball bet.  As a point of fact, injudiciously
many handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers.  Few articles we’ve ever written have gotten
as much response along the lines of “eye opening” in many cases even years
later, than our “Clichés
about Pitching and Defense are Offensive
” essay.

We document the truth that many would consider
sacrilegious—that so many gamblers overvalue pitching, oblivious to how much
the odds have starting pitching built in. Before your blood boils, if you never
read said column, go to the archives at JoeDuffy.net and read it
with an open mind.  Don’t judge right
away. Track the theories for a few months and even years, as many of our
converts have.  We look forward to your
feedback.

Remember though, the key in baseball betting is not
winning percentage.  Chalk addicts can
hit 60 percent of their plays and lose money, while dog specialists (ahem) can
hit 45 percent of their plays and win. 
Knowledge and proper management of probability/risk ratio is what
baseball handicapping is all about. 

A major danger in designating pitchers is if a great deal
of your handicapping has to do with the teams involved, you could get screwed
by a last minute scratch pitcher.  A
large percentage of changed hurlers involve a pitcher getting scratched in
warm-ups, where there is little time to change a bet.
A last minute pitching change may not change how you feel on the game, but it
screws you out of a play.

The 2006 NY Yankees have had their share of injuries.  Perhaps you are waiting on them to get 100
percent healthy among their starting eight and ride them during an anticipated
winning streak.  Or say the Pirates have
an on base percentage of .398 over their last seven games.  They face a Met team that is hitting .208
their last seven games with an on base percentage of just .252 and their
overused and injury riddled bullpen is struggling as well.

Furthermore the game is in Pittsburgh
where in location comparison (home team’s home stats, road team’s road stats)
the Pirates are excelling. Yet based on the fact Pedro Martinez is pitching for
the Mets, Pittsburgh (after the
juice) is a 160 dog.

The square player may actually believe this would be a
rare case in which not listing Martinez
would be a good play, because if he’s scratched, it would increase the Pirates
chance of winning.

Perhaps, but sharp players only wonder would it improve the
probability/risk ratio?

The probability/risk ratio says the Pirates would have to
have at least a 38 percent chance of winning (at plus-160) to make it a good
percentage play.  You handicap they have
a 52 percent for a +14 percent net.  Hence
it’s a good bet.

Your selection is in no way going against Martinez,
but since the odds and hence the probability/risk ratio is based on Martinez
pitching, this is a circumstance in which we would specify we are going against
Martinez.

Why?  Alay Soler becomes the Mets
pitcher and it increases our chances of winning only to 57 percent, because it
was offensive, momentum and bullpen factors behind our original play. But the
new pitching matchup makes Pittsburgh
a 145 favorite, which requires a 59.2 winning percentage.  You’ve only handicapped Pittsburgh
to have a 57 percent chance, so your probability/risk ratio is a negative 2.7
percent. Hence going with Pittsburgh
is a bad bet.

Most gamblers who don’t blindly always delineate pitchers
subscribe to what seem like obvious rules of thumb:

·       
If your bet is based predominately on going
against or for one pitcher, specify only that pitcher

·       
If your bet is based on a combination and
preponderance of going for one and against the other pitcher, specify both

·       
If your bet has minimal pitching advantage but
is based on one team having a huge edge, specify neither pitcher

 

But the flaw in that thinking is it overlooks our favorite
circumstance:

·       
Picking with a team despite having a pitching
disadvantage and hence disproportionately beneficial odds (example as above: betting
the hot, much better-at-home Pirates against the struggling Mets with Martinez)

 

Some may think that it’s a good idea to cover your assets
and always specify pitchers based on what we said.  Nope. 
Anytime we are picking team against team and it does not involve picking
against a star pitcher or picking with a stiff pitcher, a scratch is unlikely
to drastically change the probability/risk ratio, so we don’t specify starters.

A devil’s advocate may point out what if you are picking
with Braves who have beneficial odds thanks to Jorge Sosa pitching, but he is
scratched.  John Smoltz
is next in line and he starts.  The risk
is we go from picking a huge dog to a huge favorite by not specifying pitchers.
  

The reason we are more often willing to take that
particular risk is managers are much more cautious with their star pitchers and
an undisputed ace isn’t as likely to be thrown in on a moment’s notice.  But we still acknowledge that
probability/risk ratio potential pitfall. Hence, one has to strongly consider
the likely starters for each team in the event of a scratch pitcher.

Thankfully scratch pitchers are not extremely common and
over a long season specifying and not specifying pitchers is very doubtful to
make the difference in a winning and losing season.  However we accurately preach every small edge
adds up, so don’t underestimate the importance of when and when not to check
and uncheck one or both starters.

Overlooking the probability/risk ratio involved is a major
facet that keeps square players subsidizing the books for the rest of us.

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net We start the
week out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com , top computer trends from
forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar,
sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net