My Lord, while VIP Club is bombarding you with texts and voicemails, the proven winners atOffshoreInsiders.com just roll along. Here is a free winner from Joe Duffy, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper.
College Football:
Western Kentucky-UTSA UNDER 72.5
Yeah, models have become en vogue in recent years. Some are worthless, but a pro gambler I’ve known for years gave me life-changing info when he told me which public ones are and are not worth a shizzle. The best power ratings have the UNDER as 8.6 percent edge and a power line of 66.7. That is a strong variance, especially this late in year. Our top simulator has it going under 62 percent of the time, with 68 points projected.
Despite the high total, UTSA does hold teams to .4 yards per rush below their normal average while WKU keeps opponents to .4 yards per rush, .3 yards per pass, and .2 yards per play below what they normally get. It’s never over until it’s under, so we may have to sweat it out. But it stays under.
Top expert pick: Six college football winners up for Friday and Saturday. This includes Wise Guy side and total on the SEC Championship Game, first time we have had a Wise Guy on both the side and total is this doozie. Four totals, two sides. Four NFL Wise Guys, one Major. Get the picks now
In the biggest SEC Championship Game in NCAAF history, Georgia plays Alabama in the 2021 contest. Georgia is laying -6.5 with a total of 50.5 at MyBookie after a world opener was posted at Betonline, the home of the opening line at -4 and 50.5. Early money poured in on the Bulldogs with 86 percent of bets and 83 percent of the money on the home-state squad. Both metrics lean towards the over with 52 percent of tickets and 66 percent of the handle on a high scoring game.
Georgia is playing in their home state but doesn’t have as much of a travel edge as some may assume. The Tide will travel 187 miles, compared to 61 for UGA. The Dogs are 8-4 ATS, including 6-0 away from home, while Alabama is 6-6 in the back pocket. UGA has gone under 7-of-12 games this year, the Tide under 6-5-1.
Georgia has a big edge on offense, especially in the running game, getting 1.1 more yards per rush, 2.2 yards per pass, and 1.4 more yards per play than their opponents normally allow. Bama gets .1 yards per carry less, but 2.0 yards per pass and 1.0 yards per play above what their foes normally permit.
The Dogs hold teams to a stunning 2.1 yards per rush, 2.1 yards per passing attempt, and 2.0 yards per play (includes special teams) below their normal production. Alabama is solid as well, as teams get 1.7 yards per rush, .6 yards per pass, and 1.2 yards per play below their normal average.
Going against favorites of more than a field goal, but 10 points or less after allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt is 64-41 if both teams average at least 8.3 yards per pass. This includes 34-11 more recently. This angle favors Alabama.
Spread betting trends. All records are ATS: Georgia is 5-0 if they held their previous opponent to under 275 total yards. They are 11-4 on neutral sites. Alabama is 5-0 if they were held to under 100 rushing yards last game, but 3-7 if they hold their last foe to under 100 rushing yards. The underdog has covered 6-of-7 in the series.
Over-under trends: Georgia under 7-1 neutral, under 28-12 after allowing less than 170 passing yards previous game. The Crimson Tide have gone over 12-3 if they held their last opponent to less than 275 total yards. The series has gone over 7-1-1.
Top expert pick: Six college football winners up for Friday and Saturday. This includes Wise Guy side and total on the SEC Championship Game, first time we have had a Wise Guy on both the side and total is this doozie. Four totals, two sides at OffshoreInsiders.com
Many scribes and talking heads in the media have crowned Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots as the favorites to win Super Bowl 56. They can get value if they put their money where their big mouths are as New England is No. 6 favorite to win it all at 10-1 according to Bovada
Super Bowl 56 Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Arizona Cardinals +750
Green Bay Packers +750
Buffalo Bills +800
New England Patriots +1000
Baltimore Ravens +1200
Dallas Cowboys +1200
Los Angeles Rams +1200
Tennessee Titans +2200
Cincinnati Bengals +3000
San Francisco 49ers +3000
Los Angeles Chargers +3500
Indianapolis Colts +4000
Cleveland Browns +6000
Minnesota Vikings +7500
Denver Broncos +8000
Las Vegas Raiders +8000
Philadelphia Eagles +8000
New Orleans Saints +15000
Pittsburgh Steelers +15000
Washington Football Team +20000
Seattle Seahawks +25000
Carolina Panthers +35000
Miami Dolphins +40000
Atlanta Falcons +50000
New York Giants +50000
Chicago Bears +75000
Detroit Lions +500000
Houston Texans +500000
Jacksonville Jaguars +500000
New York Jets +500000
Superstar Joe Duffy already with six winners for conference championship weekend. Beat the line moves and the bookies at OffshoreInsiders.com Gotten crushed by those telemarketers from VIP Club? Get bailed out with a real pro capper.
Who have been the best teams to bet on in the 2021-22 NBA ranked by sweat barometer AKA margin of cover? The now-healthy and rebuilt Golden State Warriors top the list by a fairly large margin at books such as Bovada
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Golden State
15-4-1
7.7
Cleveland
13-5-2
5.2
Miami
13-7
3.5
Chicago
13-8
2.1
Not all the best teams to bet against based on margin of cover have losing ATS marks. However, proponents of sweat barometer would assert the Grizzlies have had good fortune and would be overvalued. Worst ATS teams:
Suffice to say, there have been a lot more under teams, though Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com notes that oddsmakers are adjusting and after dominating books with so many under bets, the Grandmaster’s computer software is now spitting out a lot more over bets as sharp computer moves. The top under teams:
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
LA Clippers
8-12
-10.1
Oklahoma City
6-13
-9.1
Denver
8-11
-7.3
Golden State
6-14
-6.6
Cleveland
7-13
-6.2
Minnesota
8-12
-6
Washington
7-13
-5
New Orleans
7-15
-4.7
Dallas
7-9-2
-4.1
Chicago
9-12
-4
Milwaukee
7-14
-3.8
Brooklyn
9-11
-3.4
Houston
7-12
-3.2
Stevie Vincent is widely accepted as the best NBA handicapper since Curt Thomas retired early in this century. His personal bets are posted exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com
While OffshoreInsiders.com is putting oddsamkers’ jobs in peril, the college football coaching carousel caught the nation off guard yesterday when USC announced it had hired Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma.
There will undoubtedly be more heads of programs roll this week and next, and many are speculating who will be hired to fill some of these jobs.
SportsBetting set odds for the LSU, Oklahoma and Washington vacancies on Monday morning, which you can find below.
Odds are highly subject to change. Current odds can be found on SportsBetting
One week after CJ Stroud was around a -200 favorite and Young was +160, the Heisman odds at SportsBetting have swung immensely.
At this point, barring a putrid performance in the SEC Championship against Georgia, where the Alabama is a 6.5-point underdog, the numbers suggest Young will take home the Heisman hardware.
Additionally, Michigan has moved into the No. 3 spot in terms of CFP odds, while Oklahoma State and Cincinnati are tied for the fourth-best odds.
Finally, here are the current betting lines for conference championship weekend:
Complete odds that will change throughout week based on betting from SportsBetting
Super sharp NFL betting for week 12 sees the usual love for away favorites, including already played Bills, which were the second strongest consensus of the week both in terms of percentage of bets and cash.
🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Atlanta. Pittsburgh is the biggest public underdog, followed by Minnesota.
🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Denver, Seattle (MNF)
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Green Bay -2.5 to +2, Miami -1 to +2, Seattle -2.5 to pick
Key NFL injuries:
Packers RB Aaron Jones game time decision. He has seen TDs, 541 yards rushing and 37 receptions.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley will play.
Strongest bets:
Joe Duffy’s Picks
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2 MONEY LINE UNDERDOGS AMONG4 PRO FOOTBALL WINNERS; 2 NCAAB TOO
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Following Ohio State’s loss and Alabama yet again struggling to defeat an opponent, Georgia is a prohibitive favorite to win the NCAA football national championship 2022. Non-Power 5 school Cincinnati is in the top 4 at 11-1. Odds are from Bovada
Luke Walton was the first NBA head coach to be handed walking papers this season. Who will be the next?
SportsBetting has made Pistons’ floor general Dwane Casey the favorite with 2-1 odds. However, these odds have shifted significantly since opening.
The sportsbook initially had Willie Green (2-1), Mike Budenholzer (3-1) and Rick Carlisle (4-1) the favorites, but now you can see the latest odds below.
Frank Vogel, who is now second the list to be canned, started with 20-1 odds, while Stephen Silas opened with 14-1 odds.
Additionally, there are odds for the next Kings head coach. Former Nets boss Kenny Atkinson is the favorite, but a current coach has the second-best odds.
Next Kings Head Coach
Kenny Atkinson 4-1
Terry Stotts 5-1
Becky Hammon 6-1
Alvin Gentry 7-1
Darvin Ham 8-1
Doug Christie 10-1
Mike D’Antoni 10-1
Bobby Jackson 12-1
Mark Jackson 12-1
Jeff Van Gundy 14-1
Stan Van Gundy 14-1
Charles Lee 16-1
Sam Cassell 16-1
Steve Clifford 16-1
Next Head Coach Fired
Dwane Casey 2-1
Frank Vogel 3-1
Stephen Silas 5-1
Willie Green 6-1
Mark Daigneault 10-1
Nick Nurse 11-1
Taylor Jenkins 12-1
Nate McMillan 18-1
Ime Udoka 20-1
Jamahl Mosley 20-1
Mike Budenholzer 20-1
Rick Carlisle 22-1
Chauncey Billups 28-1
Michael Malone 33-1
Chris Finch 40-1
Tyronn Lue 40-1
Doc Rivers 50-1
Tom Thibodeau 60-1
James Borrego 66-1
Jason Kidd 75-1
Steve Nash 80-1
JB Bickerstaff 125-1
Erik Spoelstra 150-1
Billy Donovan 200-1
Gregg Popovich 200-1
Wes Unseld Jr 200-1
Monty Williams 250-1
Quin Snyder 250-1
Steve Kerr 300-1
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