All posts by Joe Duffy

Friday Sampler

Alliancehandicapping.com http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/
gives you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest
rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the
Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost.

Fridays are a huge day for the 3 day pass.

Every period you
can come up with, weeks, months or years, having the power of 620 sports
service behind every selections is hitting better than
60-65 percent. POWERFUL is the only way to describe having
direct access to all the nation’s premier sports services.

This is your top sports service report for Friday, April 07, 2006

·
EXCLUSIVE: Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the
famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years
has over the last two months taken over the North American sports scene. All the rage now among Americans, we have two NBA and a MLB for Friday

·
Luther Wade is 8-2 in MLB this year, No. 1 so
far in the industry as with several dogs he’s +9.6 units in 10 games. Stats are
out of 620 services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on
ONE unit per play Wade has two more MLB
for Friday

·
Staff Purchase Play, this
is when we pay a major sports service to release a major play before the sports
service itself does. Staff Purchase
plays are now 16-2 including the Lakers last night. Sports service out of Las Vegas has their TNT Parlay of the Year
Dallas-San Antonio, Lakers-Suns.
They will release it sometime after 5:00 EST, charging their clients $100.

We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from
the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost. REDUCED PRICES FOR ALL PLAYERS:
Today’s full menu is $12, a week $67, and monthly $200.

Purchase now at http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/premium.html

Alliancehandicapping.com http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/
is proud to be featured daily on the Handicapper’s Sampler http://www.joeduffy.net/blog/todays_top_sports_service_information/

Friday, April 07, 2006

 

It’s the first weekend of baseball and team tendencies are
starting to develop, so get at least the three day pass.  We have the NL Cheap Lay of the Week as a Wise Guy among four MLB and
NBA Winners.
The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
    

We want to extend belated and
sincere thank you to the many who signed up for the full year special.  Our jaw dropping renewal rate is the envy of
the industry as gamblers become more and more educated consumers.  Our work ethic, quality information and long
term ROI is the Industry Standard.

 

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4-07-06

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Friday, April 07, 2006

 

It’s the first weekend of baseball and team tendencies are
starting to develop, so get at least the three day pass. We have the NL Cheap Lay of the Week as a Wise Guy among four MLB and
NBA Winners.
The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.

We want to extend belated and sincere thank you to the
many who signed up for the full year special.
Our jaw dropping renewal rate is the envy of the industry as gamblers
become more and more educated consumers.
Our work ethic, quality information and long term ROI is the Industry Standard.

Since Thanksgiving Day 2004, the demarcation point from
where our mastery of modern technology made the gap between us and the rest of
the industry insurmountable.

Advanced Pitcher’s Report Card Info For Friday

Our advanced news and notes are brought to you by the
Greek Sportsbook as they release lines before anyone else. Click here to sign up now.
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MLB

·       
In 43 lifetime starts to St.
Louis
, Greg Maddux has a 2.92 ERA but just an 18-18
personal record

·       
In eight lifetime starts to Pittsburgh,
Eric Milton is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA

·       
Florida
is 16-6 to Steve Trachsel

·       
Houston
is 1-4 to Tony Armas, whose ERA is 3.18 lifetime to
them

·       
In seven lifetime starts to Baltimore,
Matt Clement is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA

·       
Texas
is 4-0 to Mike Maroth whose ERA is 10.35 to them

·       
Jon Garland has a 4-0 personal record to KC

Braves-Giants Winner

Thursday, April 6, 2006

Start out your four-day pass with a 3:00 EST baseball winner. 
However the big story is Godspicks has a Wise Guy play on Detroit-Miami
NBA national TV. We also have a nighttime surprise in MLB.

We have yet another winning day Wednesday.  How did you do? The ENTIRE card is
just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
    

MLB

ATLANTA (SOSA +105) San
Francisco
(Lowry)

We know Noah Lowry finished last season strong, but what
we affectionately refer to the Pat Rapp Syndrome, history is full of pitchers
who had a great last month or so only to enter permanent mediocrity.

Truthfully Jorge Sosa showed more.  Last year he he
went 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA. The 27-year-old righthander’s
.813 winning percentage led the National League.  The Braves have beaten Lowry both times they
faced him.

Sampler For Thursday

Alliancehandicapping.com http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/
gives you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their
highest rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from
the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost.

Every period you
can come up with, weeks, months or years, having the power of 620 sports
service behind every selections is hitting better than
60-65 percent.
Your top sports service plays wins again
yesterday.  It’s now 14-4 the last three
days and 570-215 over the last 21 months.  
POWERFUL is the only way to describe having
direct access to all the nation’s premier sports services.

This is your top sports service report for Thursday, April 06, 2006

·       
EXCLUSIVE:  Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the
famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years
has over the last two months taken over the North American sports scene. They
gave you Seattle in the NBA Sunday
and swept baseball with San Diego
and the Mets in baseball on Monday.   Tuesday it was the Braves-over, Wednesday it
was the Yankees and Hornets. You know it’s legit because you got EVERY ONE OF
THEM.  The Pan-Asian Syndicate continues
to overtake American sports with the
Tampa-Baltimore total and the Detroit-Texas side

·       
Luther Wade is 6-1 already in MLB including Atlanta
yesterday as released here.  Wade has another baseball dog

·       
Staff Purchase Play, this
is when we pay a major sports service to release a major play before the sports
service itself does.  The nation’s No. 1
late telephone service is advertising in several newspapers their Pay After You Win Game of the Year on TNT, Lakers versus Nuggets. Customers pay $500, but only after
the game wins.  However they are not
releasing the play until 6:00 EST.  We have the play now for about 1/14 of the
price they will charge thanks to the STAFF PURCHASE

 

Purchase now at http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/premium.html

Alliancehandicapping.com http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/
is proud to be featured daily on the Handicapper’s Sampler http://www.joeduffy.net/blog/todays_top_sports_service_information/

We search our database of more
than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number
late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources
and give you their top plays more times than not at a fraction of the cost. REDUCED
PRICES FOR ALL PLAYERS: Today’s full menu is $12, a week $67, and monthly $200.

 

Thanks
for our loyal customer Alan K who says of all the poker sites he’s tried “more
than 30” his favorite is Nine. 

 

Thursday, April 06,
2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com does it again winning on Wednesday led by our Wise Guy on the
Hawks-over.  Get at least the four-day pass and enjoy the first
weekend of the magic of baseball.

We win in both the NBA and MLB as we start out with mid
afternoon baseball, then have a nighttime NBA Wise Guy and night baseball
.
The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
    

Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high
rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play
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this every day.

Vincent Changes the Handicaping Landscape

Address for site: www.betonsports360.com

E-mail: SVincent@JoeDuffy.net

Website: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, August 15, 2007

“Revolutionary New Sports Handicapping Site”

PLAINVIEW, NY–A
revolutionary new website that experts say will change the landscape of sports
betting is now live: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com Stevie Vincent is the forefather of
“forensic handicapping” based on the principal of forensic economics.

Already considered the leading authority on probability
and statistics as it applies to sports gaming, Vincent took it a step
further. Captivated by a research paper
authored by a University of Pennsylvania professor who used forensic economics
to argue a significant percentage of college basketball games were fixed,
Vincent used data mining software and a web crawler unearthing consistent
patterns of when teams were likely to cover or fail to cover the spread.

However, Vincent does not believe the anomalies are
evidence of underworld influence, but proof that not only are there distinct
patters of when a team will peak and bottom out, but forensic handicapping
exploits when oddsmakers overuse recent data resulting in “overlays” or “underlays” (bad lines) by the oddsmakers. He also believes
some off lines are intentional in anticipation of predictably inaccurate public
perception.

Vincent’s research answers one of handicapping’s great
mysteries: how to weigh long term versus short term data. “It depends, but it
is now ascertainable how and when to evaluate the fluid variables” asserts
Vincent.

In short, forensic handicapping evaluates data and detects
the confluence of team, oddsmaker and public
tendencies producing an end product being the most scientifically valid sports
selections ever.

Vincent is former Executive Editor of the popular
scorephone “Tailgate Parties” and has been a consultant to several top
handicappers.

BetOnSports360.com takes sports betting into a new age with
“forensic handicapping” using ground-breaking techniques employed successfully
in other fields.


Trends, News and Notes For Thursday


Buy & Sell Baseball Tickets on StubHub.com!

Thursday, April 6,
2006

Start out your four-day pass with a 3:00 EST baseball winner.
However the big story is Godspicks has a Wise Guy play on Detroit-Miami
NBA national TV. We also have a nighttime surprise in MLB.

We have yet another winning day Wednesday. How did you do? The ENTIRE card is
just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.

NBA

All trends are ATS

·       
Charlotte
is on a 12-6 run

·       
Denver
is 31-13 at home last three years after scoring 105 or more points

 

Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com private
clipboard. They are compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. Get advanced news and
notes ready for opening lines at blog on our home
page.

Bobcats-Nets

The Journal News

The Nets have won 13 straight. The Nets’ defense is
allowing 82 points a game during the streak on 40.6 percent shooting (417 for
1027). The Nets are now fifth and sixth in the league in both categories,
respectively.

Pistons-Heat

Detroit Free Press

The Pistons can lollygag to the regular-season finale,
with a No. 1 seed and home-court advantage secured through the Eastern finals. Miami,
meanwhile, is firmly entrenched at No. 2. Tonight, the Pistons will try to win,
of course. But they’ll also give the starters a little extra rest and test a
few unusual lineups. Facing Dwayne Wade means a long night for Richard
Hamilton, who took a shot in his sore hip after Tuesday’s win. Rasheed Wallace will rejoin the Pistons after serving his
one-game suspension for accumulating 16 technical fouls.

 

MLB

A personal record is the pitcher’s record in his
decisions. A team record is how the team
performed in a pitchers’ start, regardless if he was involved in the decision

·       
Jeff Francis is 5-0 lifetime to Arizona

·       
Detroit
is 0-3 to R.A. Dickey

·       
In the St. Louis-Philadelphia series all six
have gone over last three years in Phiilly and
10-of-12 overall

Big Offer From MVP Sportsbook


Alliance Handicapping, Jimmy Ashton, Cy McCormick, and Richard Roma

Contact Information: Cy McCormick

Address for site: http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website: 
Alliancehandicapping.com

 

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Thursday, April 6, 2006

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Alliancehandiapping.com gives
you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their
highest rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from
the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost.

 

 

 


Handicapper’s Sampler For Wednesday

Alliancehandicapping.com (http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/)
gives you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their
highest rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from
the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost.

Every period you
can come up with, weeks, months or years, having the power of 620 sports
service behind every selections is hitting better than
60-65 percent.
Your top sports service plays wins again
yesterday.  It’s now 10-1 the last three
days and 567-212 over the last 21 months.  
POWERFUL is the only way to describe having
direct access to all the nation’s premier sports services.

This is your top sports service report for Wednesday, April 05, 2006

·       
EXCLUSIVE:  Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the
famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years
has over the last two months taken over the North American sports scene. They
gave you Seattle in the NBA Sunday
and swept baseball with San Diego
and the Mets in baseball on Monday.   Tuesday
it was the Braves-over.  Get two baseball winners from the Pan-Asian
Syndicate for Wednesday and an NBA

·       
Bill Tanner is the No. 1 college and NBA
handicapper combined since 1995. Stats are out of 620 services monitored,
rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per play. He’s from the
basketball crazed state of Indiana
and his Platinum Plays in hoops hit around 62 percent.  He also hits above 60 percent in college
football with “Plats”.    He has another plat today

·       
Luther Wade is 5-0 already in MLB including Cleveland,
Florida
& the over yesterday.  Luther
Wade has two Wednesday MLB dogs

Purchase now at http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/premium.html

Alliancehandicapping.com (http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/)
is proud to be featured daily on the Handicapper’s Sampler (http://www.joeduffy.net/blog/todays_top_sports_service_information/)

We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from
the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900
number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays
more times than not at a fraction of the cost. REDUCED PRICES FOR ALL PLAYERS:
Today’s full menu is $12, a week $75,  and monthly $200.

Free winner: Silk
City
Sports has Portland-under
in the NBA

 

Wednesday, April 5,
2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com  has
five plays for Wednesday highlighted by two NBA Wise Guy plays and a MLB Wise Guy.  Today is the last day: Don’t fret college
coming to an end, because the news is getting better: Check out our phenomenal
offer for baseball season
, every play, every day, and
every
sport for $7.29 per day.

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
     

Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high
rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play
in the handicapping abyss. This is just fact.

Remember the second you buy a sports service play, you
will know if they did their homework. If they researched the games, they will
be happy to show it off in the analysis. America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com gives you winners like
this every day.

Wednesday Godspicks

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Last day: Don’t fret college coming to an end, because the
news is getting better: Check out our phenomenal offer for
baseball season
, every play, every day, and every
sport for $7.29 per day.

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com has five plays for Wednesday, two Majors and a three NBA and
MLB Wise Guy plays. Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high
rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play
in the handicapping abyss. This is just fact.

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
    

MLB

Detroit-Kansas City
UNDER 9

KC has a very weak line-up and we don’t expect much from
them. Both Bonderman and Mays are pitchers who are
capable of better than they showed late last year, so against weak bats and an
inflated total, we look for both underachievers to seize the opportunity
against weaker bats.

In 18 starts to Detroit,
Joe Mays has a 1.124 WHIP and an ERA of 3.11. 
We expect six runs or less.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 18


Click Here For The Wall Street Journal

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 18

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Professor Wolfers’ Response

Our previous article “Bad Conclusions about Fixing Need to Get Fixed” took to task University of Pennsylvania professor Justin Wolfers’ contention about college basketball games having a shocking number of games involving point shaving.  Here on the Duffy Factor, we let the guests have the last word, so here is the good professor’s:

Thanks for sending me your article.  I must admit that I’m a bit puzzled by some of your criticisms – some are obviously fair, and some seem to me to be off the mark.  I’m not sure if you have read the underlying research paper, but if you do go and read it carefully, I think you will get a stronger sense of precisely what the argument is, and hence which of your criticisms are more and less valid. 

Specifically, the evidence about whether long favorites cover, is less relevant than the asymmetry – just covering versus just failing to cover.  And your interesting discussion about strong favorites being overbet is also explicitly discussed in the paper. The argument is essentially that if it is simply an artifact of the Duke’s of the world being overbet (thereby making 14 point favorites 16 point favorites), then one should expect 16 point favorites to win less often than one might expect for a team this heavily favorite. Figure 4 in the paper suggests that this isn’t true.

Professor Wolfers original paper: Point Shaving

Easier to be the Hunter than the Hunted

Our Wise Guy winner on Florida over George Mason in the 2006 Final 4 is far from the only example, but certainly as high profile as any, of a theory we’ve ridden for years. Teams that have the glass slipper for a variety of reasons will fall prey to the law of diminishing return and in fact reach a point of negative return.

When a team (or in baseball a pitcher as well) is playing above their head, chances are they will return to their level, but their value will be much higher on the betting line. Furthermore, they face the burden of high expectations.

Ironic, we just spoke of the University of Pennsylvania, because in 1979 they opened our eyes to this.  Once a team goes from dark horse to contender, we red flag them as possible go-against teams, pending other factors.

In college sports, a team that enters the Top 25 either for the first time ever or the first time in decades is the epitome of such team. The mid major college team that pulls off a few upsets in pre conference play (remember Gary Trent) is another commonplace occurrence.  Perhaps the archetype is the several-times-a-year-example of a MLB pitcher who comes out of nowhere to look like the second coming of Cy Young in his first four or five starts.

Handicappers should never forget the adage, “It’s easier to get to the top than to stay on top”.  

It’s Right for Some Stats to be Left Behind

In 2005, Cleveland was 42-20 on the road to right-handed starters but 8-12 to lefthanders. So they obviously were better against right handers. 

Or then again, no. At home they were .500 to righties and five games above to southpaws. The Cubs were much better on the road to lefties in 2005, but at home, significantly more successful to right handers. Washington was the exact same way.

In fact the number of teams that statistically were much better on the road to one type of pitcher and just the opposite at home greatly outnumbers those teams that showed a clear tendency both at home and on the road.

My point is that one of the most overrated stats in baseball handicapping is lefty/righty stats. First of all, most teams will face left handed starters roughly 38-52 times a year.  So with such an unbalanced number anyway, stats can get distorted and many other factors including random chance enter the equation when explaining right/left fluctuation.

By no means are we suggesting such stats should be ignored.  Lord knows there are many managers in the Hall-of-Fame that are so-called “situational” managers.  But then again that’s what they do—adjust to the situation and counteract any imbalance that existed in the starting line-up.

If for example one handicaps that the Cubs are much better against left-handed pitching and the team they are facing is starting a left-hander, what happens if the top three relief pitchers on the team they are facing happen to be right handed pitchers? Those stats go out the window in a tie game late once the other team goes to the bullpen and can make mid-course corrections.  In fact, the stats can then go polar opposite.

Randy Johnson has been facing top-heavy right handed line-ups his entire career. Here’s a secret: he mows them down too.  Need I say more?  Unless a team or pitcher both home and away has demonstrated beyond doubt to be significantly better to righties or lefties, let the handicapper beware.

Even if a true angle is uncovered, it’s the job of the “situation manager” to adjust.  We use such numbers, but do so with caution. It’s the “right” thing to do.

 

JoeDuffy.net has become the ultimate source for daily free gaming news and notes both daily and advanced, top sports service plays and more.  America’s greatest sports service is OffshoreInsiders.com.