Please keep all our information free and allow us to EXPAND IT by supporting our sponsors.
All sponsorship revenue is re-invested back into the site. Most importantly we thoroughly check out all sportsbooks before they go on our site. We consult the legitimate watchdogs and use them ourselves.
Please also support the JoeDuffy.net store as we continue to add products of interest to you. Remember it keeps our information FREE
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
The Center of the Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com wins again on Monday. We go 3-2 and despite the brief bump we had in the road, the long-term windfall since the Demarcation Point continued with last night’s 3-2. Since Thanksgiving Day 2004, the demarcation point from where our mastery of modern technology made the gap between us and the rest of the industry insurmountable.
Tonight we have a 5-0 sweep led by a Wise Guy. The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck. Also we now have yearly and other packages available via Western Union. Every play, every sport for a year is $2,450. Email us at godspicks@bellsouth.net to make arrangements or for Neteller payments.
NBA
Sonics-Bucks
News Tribune
Sonics forward Rashard Lewis is expected to play after missing Sunday’s game with a right quadriceps contusion. If he can’t go, he will be replaced by Damien Wilkins, who has averaged 23.5 points the past two games. Coach Bob Hill said he briefly considered playing Lewis at the power forward spot and Wilkins at small forward, but he was not a big fan of Lewis at power forward. The Sonics have lost five of their past six games. They have two games left before the All-Star break. The Bucks are coached by former Sonics assistant Terry Stotts. The Bucks have had two in-flight incidents in the past week in which mechanical problems forced their flights to land.
CBB
Princeton-Penn
Press Notes
The Tigers’ four-game winning streak is their longest since early last season. Penn (14-6, 6-0 Ivy) has not only won four in a row but also eight of its last nine and 11 of its last 13. The Tigers have been shooting well themselves throughout their winning streak, connecting on better than 42% of their three-point shots in that time. The Quakers have won seven of the last eight games in the series. Only twice in the last 15 seasons has there been a split in the season series (1998-99 and 2003-04). Princeton is shooting 38 for 90 from three-point range (42%) and 42 for 52 from the foul line (80.8%) during its current four-game winning streak. The Tigers have shot 40% or better from the field in five straight games after doing that just five times in their first 14 games. Princeton won at The Palestra two years ago and led Penn by 18 points with 7:35 left at The Palestra last season before the Quakers made a late-game comeback and won in overtime. Each of the last two Princeton-Penn games at the Palestra has gone to overtime.
St. Joseph’s-Temple
Press Notes
After back-to-back losses to Top 10 teams, Saint Joseph’s will look to get back on the winning track when it visits crosstown rival Temple. The Hawks have won seven consecutive games against the Owls, including a 59-57 win on January 8. Dave Mallon returned to the starting lineup against GW after missing two games with a sprained ankle. Despite being limited to 19 minutes, Mallon scored 12 points on 6-for-8 shooting, and played aggressively on both ends of the floor. For those who bet halftime lines: The Hawks are coming off consecutive games in which Top 10 teams (Villanova, GW) made double-digit runs in the second half. But they weren’t the only games this year in which that’s happened. Against Xavier, the Hawks held a 29-22 halftime lead but saw XU go on a 15-5 run to eventually take the edge and the 62-58 win. In another home game against Charlotte, SJU led 31-24 at the break, but the 49ers outscored the Hawks, 17-7, to earn the 57-50 win.
Michigan State-Iowa
Press Notes
Iowa (19-6, 8-3) plays its second and final February home game Tuesday, Feb. 14, hosting Michigan State (18-6, 6-4). Iowa is ninth in the RPI Index and 18th in the Sagarin Ratings. Iowa’s strength of schedule is 22nd in the RPI Index and 18th by Sagarin. Iowa has played 11 games against top 50 teams in the RPI Index and the six teams that have defeated Iowa hold a combined record of 98-38 (.721). Iowa joins Duke, Connecticut and West Virginia as one of four Division I teams with 11 games against top 50 teams, with only Duke and Connecticut (10 each) having more wins against top 50 teams. Iowa has posted a 7-3 record against teams in the top 25 rankings at the time of the game, including a 2-1 mark against top 10 teams. For the only time in its basketball history, Iowa has posted 14 consecutive home wins in a single season.
Loyola-Sienna
Press Notes
Siena will play Loyola at Pepsi Arena Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. The Saints currently sit in a fifth place tie with Niagara at 7-8 in MAAC play, one game ahead of the Greyhounds. Siena defeated Loyola 89-83 in Baltimore February 2.
Bowling Green-Akron
Press Notes
BGSU leads the all-time series 23-13, but UA won the season’s first meeting 77-72 in overtime on Jan. 29 in Bowling Green. The Zips have won two-straight in the overall series, but the Falcons claimed the last meeting at Rhodes Arena (77-72/Jan. 14). The University of Akron men’s basketball team (18-5, 11-2 MAC) attempts to maintain its first-place standing in the Mid-American Conference East Division (tied with Kent State) and to extend its 15-game home win streak when it plays host to Bowling Green (9-14, 5-8) Tuesday. Akron, winners of two straight and five of its last six games, comes off a 77-72 victory at Eastern Michigan on Saturday. Bowling Green, which has dropped four of its last five games, looks to rebound from a 72-64 loss at Toledo on Saturday. UA leads the MAC in five categories – scoring (74.2 ppg), scoring margin (+9.9), assists (16.8), assist-turnover ratio (1.4) and 3-pointers made (8.3 per game). The Zips are second in the league in field goals (46 percent), 3-point field goals (38 percent) and turnover margin (+3.0).
Drake-Illinois State
Press Notes
Illinois State and Drake will meet for the second time in a week. The Redbirds are in the midst of a five-game losing skid, while Drake has dropped six of its last seven, with the lone win coming against Illinois State. The two teams could meet each other again at the Valley Tournament in the play-in game, as the Bulldogs need to win out and have Bradley drop its final three games to stay out of Thursday night’s game. Despite not having anyone on their roster over 6-foot-7, the Bulldogs rank second in the conference in rebounding margin (+5.7), first in rebounding defense (30.5) and first in offensive rebounds (14.08). In addition to having their sights on the school record for points allowed per game, the Redbirds are also in pursuit of the school record for defensive field goal percentage. Currently, ISU foes are shooting 40.1 percent from the field, while the school mark is 40.2 percent, which was set during the 1996-97 season. The Bulldogs rank last in the conference in three-point percentage defense at 38.4 percent. DU also ranks last in three-point field goals made with 5.08 treys per game.
Maryland-Clemson
Press Notes
Clemson starting point guard Vernon Hamilton was injured in the final moments of Clemson’s 67-61 loss at Boston College on Saturday, February 11. The junior from Richmond, VA suffered an elbow injury and a sprained thumb while diving for a loose ball. As a result, he is doubtful for the Maryland game on Tuesday. For the year, Hamilton is Clemson’s top scorer and assist maker and the team’s leader in steals and playing time. He has 65 steals to lead the conference and averages 31 minutes per game. He is ranked among the top 20 in the nation in steals.
All posts by Joe Duffy
God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 17
Please keep all our information free and allow us to EXPAND IT by supporting our sponsors.
All sponsorship revenue is re-invested back into the site. Most importantly we thoroughly check out all sportsbooks before they go on our site. We consult the legitimate watchdogs and use them ourselves.
God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 17
Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Boob Tube Not Always For Boobs
No pornographic intentions, but perhaps I did get your attention. I am a proud parent of three awesome young kids. A lot of what they watch actually can be educational, but there is also a bunch of garbage on TV. For the handicapper there is a certain double edge sword about games they watch, including of course in person. The sports packages now offered also on digital cable (except for the NFL) are an outstanding handicapping tool…or vice. The former should be relatively obvious—the more one scouts, the more knowledgeable one becomes.
However a precursor to a gambling deathblow is when I hear a gasbag tout a play because “I saw Sheboygan on TV the other night and they looked horrible.” Gamblers make too many conclusions based on one game they’ve seen. For whatever reason, my unscientific study indicates such hotdoggers more times than not go against a team that looked horrible rather than with a team that looked great. The sharp player realizes if said clunker was aberrational, it is more likely to be a wake-up call.
But the would-be hotshot apparently knows only what he saw and the shortsightedness won’t let him see anything else.
Using a grand total of one or two games to predict the future is outlandish, yet a common offense among coach potatoes. Want to win more? Some need to watch a lot more TV and others need to watch a lot less. Or maybe that’s where porn does come in. If you overreact to what you see on TV, watching nudity will get you in less trouble.
The Epicenter of Hypocrisy
We call our handicapping website, Godspicks.com the Center of the Handicapping Universe. It looks like my old stomping ground of south Jersey is ready to become the center of gambling self-righteousness as we find out that Phoenix Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet led a, oh no–hide the women a children, a gambling ring.
Yes it’s true that domestic sports gambling is illegal outside of Vegas. I don’t believe we can pick and choose which laws we obey based on whether we agree with them. But unless further details indicate these players and coaches involved bet on NHL games it’s a big non-story.
Just 10 miles down the road from where all hell broke loose is Camden, NJ- a city that two major publications dubbed “America’s Worst City” because of crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty and you name it.
Yet the boys in blue of the Garden State spend the tax dollars of my family and friends to bust a bunch of high profile people who committed the heinous crime of taking Villanova and St. Joseph’s under the total.
Like I’ve always said, they could actually tax what should be a legal activity and take the tariff revenue to fight things like crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty or build schools.
It seems to me law enforcement in Mount Holly would be better off keeping drugs out of kids hands or even stuffing their pieholes with cheesesteaks. Nah, let’s get those people who want to risk their own legally earned money on an over/under off the streets. It will make me feel secure the next time I go to Ponzio’s Diner and get some black and white cookies.
It’s much ado about nothing. What say you?
JoeDuffy.net has become the ultimate source for daily free gaming news and notes both daily and advanced, top sports service plays and more. America’s greatest sports service is OffshoreInsiders.com.
Early Steam Up for Tuesday Already
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com goes 3-2 on Monday. We already have three overnight plays for Tuesday including a Wise Guy. We are working on late steam, which is inclusive in every purchase and will be sent in the late morning.
The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck. Also we now have yearly and other packages available via Western Union. Every play, every sport for a year is $2,450. Email us at godspicks@bellsouth.net to make arrangements or for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and notes FREE at www.joeduffy.net
Advanced News and Notes in College Hoops
Please keep all our information free and allow us to EXPAND IT by supporting our sponsors.
All sponsorship revenue is re-invested back into the site. Most importantly we thoroughly check out all sportsbooks before they go on our site. We consult the legitimate watchdogs and use them ourselves.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
CBB
Princeton-Penn
Press Notes
The Tigers’ four-game winning streak is their longest since early last season. Penn (14-6, 6-0 Ivy) has not only won four in a row but also eight of its last nine and 11 of its last 13. The Tigers have been shooting well themselves throughout their winning streak, connecting on better than 42% of their three-point shots in that time. The Quakers have won seven of the last eight games in the series. Only twice in the last 15 seasons has there been a split in the season series (1998-99 and 2003-04). Princeton is shooting 38 for 90 from three-point range (42%) and 42 for 52 from the foul line (80.8%) during its current four-game winning streak. The Tigers have shot 40% or better from the field in five straight games after doing that just five times in their first 14 games. Princeton won at The Palestra two years ago and led Penn by 18 points with 7:35 left at The Palestra last season before the Quakers made a late-game comeback and won in overtime. Each of the last two Princeton-Penn games at the Palestra has gone to overtime.
St. Joseph’s-Temple
Press Notes
After back-to-back losses to Top 10 teams, Saint Joseph’s will look to get back on the winning track when it visits crosstown rival Temple. The Hawks have won seven consecutive games against the Owls, including a 59-57 win on January 8. Dave Mallon returned to the starting lineup against GW after missing two games with a sprained ankle. Despite being limited to 19 minutes, Mallon scored 12 points on 6-for-8 shooting, and played aggressively on both ends of the floor. For those who bet halftime lines: The Hawks are coming off consecutive games in which Top 10 teams (Villanova, GW) made double-digit runs in the second half. But they weren’t the only games this year in which that’s happened. Against Xavier, the Hawks held a 29-22 halftime lead but saw XU go on a 15-5 run to eventually take the edge and the 62-58 win. In another home game against Charlotte, SJU led 31-24 at the break, but the 49ers outscored the Hawks, 17-7, to earn the 57-50 win.
Michigan State-Iowa
Press Notes
Iowa (19-6, 8-3) plays its second and final February home game Tuesday, Feb. 14, hosting Michigan State (18-6, 6-4). Iowa is ninth in the RPI Index and 18th in the Sagarin Ratings. Iowa’s strength of schedule is 22nd in the RPI Index and 18th by Sagarin. Iowa has played 11 games against top 50 teams in the RPI Index and the six teams that have defeated Iowa hold a combined record of 98-38 (.721). Iowa joins Duke, Connecticut and West Virginia as one of four Division I teams with 11 games against top 50 teams, with only Duke and Connecticut (10 each) having more wins against top 50 teams. Iowa has posted a 7-3 record against teams in the top 25 rankings at the time of the game, including a 2-1 mark against top 10 teams. For the only time in its basketball history, Iowa has posted 14 consecutive home wins in a single season.
Loyola-Sienna
Press Notes
Siena will play Loyola at Pepsi Arena Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. The Saints currently sit in a fifth place tie with Niagara at 7-8 in MAAC play, one game ahead of the Greyhounds. Siena defeated Loyola 89-83 in Baltimore February 2.
Bowling Green-Akron
Press Notes
BGSU leads the all-time series 23-13, but UA won the season’s first meeting 77-72 in overtime on Jan. 29 in Bowling Green. The Zips have won two-straight in the overall series, but the Falcons claimed the last meeting at Rhodes Arena (77-72/Jan. 14). The University of Akron men’s basketball team (18-5, 11-2 MAC) attempts to maintain its first-place standing in the Mid-American Conference East Division (tied with Kent State) and to extend its 15-game home win streak when it plays host to Bowling Green (9-14, 5-8) Tuesday. Akron, winners of two straight and five of its last six games, comes off a 77-72 victory at Eastern Michigan on Saturday. Bowling Green, which has dropped four of its last five games, looks to rebound from a 72-64 loss at Toledo on Saturday. UA leads the MAC in five categories – scoring (74.2 ppg), scoring margin (+9.9), assists (16.8), assist-turnover ratio (1.4) and 3-pointers made (8.3 per game). The Zips are second in the league in field goals (46 percent), 3-point field goals (38 percent) and turnover margin (+3.0).
Drake-Illinois State
Press Notes
Illinois State and Drake will meet for the second time in a week. The Redbirds are in the midst of a five-game losing skid, while Drake has dropped six of its last seven, with the lone win coming against Illinois State. The two teams could meet each other again at the Valley Tournament in the play-in game, as the Bulldogs need to win out and have Bradley drop its final three games to stay out of Thursday night’s game. Despite not having anyone on their roster over 6-foot-7, the Bulldogs rank second in the conference in rebounding margin (+5.7), first in rebounding defense (30.5) and first in offensive rebounds (14.08). In addition to having their sights on the school record for points allowed per game, the Redbirds are also in pursuit of the school record for defensive field goal percentage. Currently, ISU foes are shooting 40.1 percent from the field, while the school mark is 40.2 percent, which was set during the 1996-97 season. The Bulldogs rank last in the conference in three-point percentage defense at 38.4 percent. DU also ranks last in three-point field goals made with 5.08 treys per game.
Maryland-Clemson
Press Notes
Clemson starting point guard Vernon Hamilton was injured in the final moments of Clemson’s 67-61 loss at Boston College on Saturday, February 11. The junior from Richmond, VA suffered an elbow injury and a sprained thumb while diving for a loose ball. As a result, he is doubtful for the Maryland game on Tuesday. For the year, Hamilton is Clemson’s top scorer and assist maker and the team’s leader in steals and playing time. He has 65 steals to lead the conference and averages 31 minutes per game. He is ranked among the top 20 in the nation in steals.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com private clipboard. They are compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases.
CBB
Auburn-Tennessee
Press Notes
The Auburn game is the lone home game in a stretch where Tennessee plays four of five games on the road. In all, four of UT’s last seven regular season games are on the road.
UT leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally in scoring offense with an average of 82.4 points per game. In league play, Tennessee’s 80.1 points per game also lead the SEC.
Tennessee has won its last seven SEC contests, its longest conference winning streak since 1981-82. UT owns an SEC-best 14-game home winning streak that includes a 12-0 home record this season. Auburn dropped to 10-11 on the season and 2-8 in SEC action with a 64-84 loss at Arkansas Saturday.
St. Louis-Duquesne
Press Notes
Saint Louis dropped a gut-wrenching 46-44 loss at Dayton on Sat., Feb. 11, when Flyers guard Brian Roberts dropped in a fadeaway jumper with 3.6 seconds remaining. The Billikens had rallied from an 11-point second-half deficit to tie the game with 32 seconds remaining. Located in Pittsburgh, Duquesne (3-19, 1-10) had its potential for a successful season take a huge hit when an injury ended forward Kieron Achara’s season. The Billikens had their season-high three-game winning streak snapped at Dayton. Through games of Feb. 12, the Billikens’ 10 losses have been to teams with a 150-76 record and .664 winning percentage – George Washington (20-1), Gonzaga (20-3), Iowa (19-6), UW-Milwaukee (17-6), North Carolina (15-6), Ole Miss (13-10), Richmond (11-12), Hawaii (13-8), Dayton (12-13) and Saint Joseph’s (10-11).The RPI rates the Bills’ schedule strength as 47th-toughest in the country. Only Saint Joseph’s (third) has a more difficult schedule in the A-10.
Utah State-Idaho
Press Notes
Utah State is 5-0 on the year and 34-7 over the last seven years following a loss. Over that time period, USU has lost back-to-back games just seven times. Over the last seven years, Utah State is 39-19 (.672) on the road in league play and 40-26 (.606) all-time on the road under head coach Stew Morrill in conference games. USU’s overall road record under Morrill is 53-39 (.576). Utah State is 91-24 (.791) in league games over the last seven years and it has won 39 of its last 49 conference games dating back to the 2002-03 season. Utah State is 40-15 (.727) in the month of February under Morrill, which includes a 18-12 (.600) road record. Utah State ranks first in the WAC and second in the nation both field goal percentage (.509), and three-point field goal percentage (.432).
Cincinnati-Syracuse
Press Notes
Cincinnati, 16-9 overall, is in ninth place in the BIG EAST standings with a 5-6 record, following Sunday’s 89-69 loss to No. 13 Pittsburgh. The top 12 teams qualify for the tournament. Syracuse, 17-7 overall, is a notch ahead of the Bearcats in the league standings with a 5-5 ledger. The Orange defeated St. John’s, 75-60, on Sunday. Syracuse is 12-3 in the Carrier Dome this season and has an all-time record in the Dome of 356-69 (.838). What a difference a month makes. When Cincinnati and Syracuse met in Cincinnati on Jan. 14, the Bearcats were No. 25 in the Associated Press poll while Syracuse was No. 24 in the ESPN rankings. Wednesday’s game will feature two of the nation’s top shot-blocking teams. Syracuse was ranked No. 6 in the most recent NCAA statistics, averaging 7.0 rejections per outing Cincinnati is ranked 15th nationally in blocked shots (5.75). Cincinnati and Syracuse have played four common opponents. UC is 2-2 in games vs. those foes while Syracuse is 2-3.
Thursday, February 16, 2005
Arizona-California
Press Notes
Chris Rodgers was reinstated by Arizona coach Lute Olson on Monday after the senior guard was kicked off the team three weeks ago for undisclosed disciplinary reasons. Rodgers started 13 of the 16 games he played before being dismissed, averaging 10.8 points and 2.3 rebounds. Rodgers was expected to fill scoring void for Arizona this season left by Salim Stoudamire’s departure.
Handicapper’s Sampler For Monday
2-0 Sunday makes it 56-11 the last 67. You know it’s legit because you got every play at Sports-Handicapper.com!!!
This is your Sports-Handicapper.com Monday, February 13, 2006
Sports-Handicapper.com gives you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a fraction of the cost.
• No. 4 CBB service for 2005-06 stats are out of 620 services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per play hit their College Hoops Game of the Year for the seventh straight year with Cal Poly, a double digit dog winning outright Saturday. YOU GOT IT RIGHT HERE! Yesterday they nailed their SIDE AND TOTAL PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio State and the under. Now it’s their TWO TEAM CBB PARLAY OF THE YEAR from as hot of a sports service as we’ve seen ever.
REDUCED PRICES FOR ALL PLAYERS: Today’s full menu is $12, 3 day is $33, a week $75 and long term as little as $4.10 per day at Sports-Handicapper.com. Today’s late breaking information as game time approaches, and advanced news and notes as well as gaming articles are at www.joeduffy.net
***************************************
Monday, February 13, 2006
We are 6-1 this year with NBA Total of the Month or Game of the Month selections. We have your NBA Total of the Month for Monday among three Wise Guy plays and college and pro and two Majors. Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. This is just fact.
Go 5-0 tonight now. The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck. Also we now have yearly and other packages available via Western Union. Every play, every sport for a year is $2,450. Email us at godspicks@bellsouth.net to make arrangements or for Neteller payments.
Monday Godspicks Free Pick
JoeDuffy.net has researched the best sportsbooks for you and we choose the ones we use and think you should use for line shopping. BetUs has the best reload and sign up bonus UP TO 50 percent—and they pay on time.
Monday, February 13, 2006
We are 6-1 this year with NBA Total of the Month or Game of the Month selections. We have your NBA Total of the Month for Monday among three Wise Guy plays and college and pro and two Majors. Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. This is just fact.
Go 5-0 tonight now. The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck. Also we now have yearly and other packages available via Western Union. Every play, every sport for a year is $2,450. Email us at godspicks@bellsouth.net to make arrangements or for Neteller payments.
CBB
Georgia Southern-Charleston OVER 147’
Georgia Southern has exceeded 90 points in consecutive games and 80 points in 4-of-6. GSU allows more than 77 ppg on the road and that’s what Charleston scores at home. Each of these teams, the numbers point towards getting 80.
Updated News and Notes for Monday
Although we cater to US based sports, we have a huge European clientele and the book they tout the most is BetReduction
Our contacts in several continents rave about their reduced juice.
Monday, February 13, 2006
We are 6-1 this year with NBA Total of the Month or Game of the Month selections. We have your NBA Total of the Month for Monday among three Wise Guy plays and college and pro and two Majors. Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely accepted by high rollers, bookmakers, linesmakers, and fellow handicappers as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. This is just fact.
Go 5-0 tonight now. The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck. Also we now have yearly and other packages available via Western Union. Every play, every sport for a year is $2,450. Email us at godspicks@bellsouth.net to make arrangements or for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and notes FREE at www.joeduffy.net
CBB
Connecticut-Villanova
Press Notes
This marks the 19th time that Villanova has faced the No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll. In its previous 18 game, the Wildcats are 4-14 against No. 1 teams. The last time VU faced the nation’s top team was on Dec. 30, 1998, when UConn dealt it a 100-76 loss at the Hartford Civic Center. Its last win over a No. 1 squad also came against the Huskies, a 96-73 triumph at Gampel Pavilion on Feb. 18, 1995. With Saturday’s 61-51 victory over DePaul, Villanova has now won eight consecutive Big East games, bringing it to within two wins of its all-time record of ten consecutive league wins. The `Cats have also won 15 of their last 16 Big East games, with the only loss coming to West Virginia on Jan. 8 at the Pavilion. After a difficult week, much of it spent in the Villanova University Student Health Center, junior guard Mike Nardi hopes to be available for action on Monday night. Nardi began feeling symptoms of tonsillitis on Feb. 4, shortly after Villanova defeated Marquette 72-67. He did not practice in preparation for the `Cats game against Saint Joseph’s on Feb. 7 and watched that contest from the Health Center.
On Friday, he accompanied the team to Chicago but did not practice. He was in uniform against DePaul but Wright elected not to utilize him. Nardi averages 12.2 ppg.
Kansas-Oklahoma State
Press Notes
Kansas (17-6, 8-2) is looking for its eighth straight win at Oklahoma State (13-11, 3-7). The Jayhawks have won three straight road games and are 4-1 in true road contests this season. Oklahoma State (13-11, 3-7) has had some rough luck as of late. The Cowboys have lost two straight and six of their last seven games with five of those decided by two points. One of the hottest teams in the nation, Kansas (17-6, 8-2) is on a seven-game winning streak and has won 14 of its last 16 games dating back to Dec. 10. The Jayhawks are currently 8-2 in Big 12 play and sit one game behind league leader No. 5 Texas at 9-1. KU leads the nation in field goal percentage defense at 36.2 percent and the Big 12 in assists at 18.1 per game. Oklahoma State (13-11, 3-7) is looking to turn around a tailspin that includes two straight losses after a 46-44 defeat at Texas A&M Saturday. The Cowboys have lost six of their last seven with five of those games being decided by two points and two of those in overtime. The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent and free throw percentage at 73.5 percent. The Cowboys lost four starters and nine letterwinners from last season’s 26-7 team.
Hawaii-Fresno
Press Notes
Fresno State wraps up its conference series with Hawai’i on Mon., Feb. 13. The Bulldogs dropped the first meeting of the season in Honolulu as the Rainbow Warriors recorded a 73-65 victory on Jan. 21. Fresno State is making its second to last home appearance.
Butler-UW Green Bay
Press Notes
Butler (15-9, 8-4 HL) faces its second key Horizon League road test in 48-hours when it visits UW-Green Bay (13-13, 7-7 HL) on Monday, Feb. 13. The two teams will be meeting for the second time in 11 days. The Bulldogs are looking to bounce back from a double-overtime, 86-83, setback at Wright State on Saturday (Feb. 11). That was Butler’s longest game of the season, and it was quickly followed by the Bulldogs’ longest league road trip of the year to face a UW-Green Bay team that is 11-2 at home! Butler leads the Horizon League and ranks third in the NCAA Division I in fewest turnovers per game (9.2). Butler leads the Horizon League in field goal shooting (.466) and three-point field goal shooting (.392).
NBA
Blazers-Hornets
Scorephone.com
The Hornets Chris Paul missed his second consecutive game with a rib injury as the Hornets won for the third straight time. Paul could return tonight.
Grizzlies-Warriors
Mercury News
Memphis snapped a five-game losing streak Saturday by beating the Los Angeles Lakers. Memphis moved to 12 games over .500 on Jan. 13, but has lost 8 of 12 since then and is tied with New Orleans/Oklahoma City for the sixth-best record in the Western Conference. Things have really taken a downturn for the Grizzlies since they acquired point guard Chucky Atkins from Washington in a trade 11 games ago (three wins). He has started the past seven games. Memphis has scored 90 in just three of the seven and won just two. Warriors injuries: G Baron Davis (ankle) is out. F Troy Murphy (ankle), F Chris Taft (back) and F Zarko Cabarkapa (back) are questionable.
Road Court Advantage
JoeDuffy.net has researched the best sportsbooks for you and we choose the ones we use and think you should use for line shopping. BetUs has the best reload and sign up bonus UP TO 50 percent—and they pay on time.
There is no Place Like Home, Except Often the Road
Joe Duffy “www.godspicks.com)
If there is one consistent general theory or category/sub-category that applies to successful handicapping in every sport, it would be exploiting home/road anomalies. That is discovering select teams that play significantly better at home than on the road or in some cases visa versa. In baseball this is also true with pitchers. We feel the term “home/road anomalies” is more accurate than the commonly accepted HFA (home field advantage) that many handicappers use.
This holds to form much more so than any other variances such as rested/unrested in the NBA, lefty/righty stats in baseball, grass/turf in football and baseball, day/night etc. In the NBA in particular nothing jumps out at us more than a team that is a home dog despite a fairly significantly better home SU record than the road team’s away mark. We have explained in previous articles why so many systems and theories that hold up don’t Amake sense@ to the inexpert eye but make dollars to the trained eye.
Obviously in such situations the road team is the better overall team and hence the public still prefers betting the superior team even if closer scrutiny at the home/road anomalies nullifies the supremacy. Then again the notion of the general public actually being aware of the home/road anomalies is laughable anyway.
This is of course assuming there are no major roster changes via injury, trade etc that have changed one or both team’s dynamics.
If injuries or roster changes explain why there is a road favorite, said theory does not apply. Likewise one must still put the circumstances under inspection. In the NBA and NHL “remember them?) for example the schedule maker generally favors the home team. If there is a three game in four nights or five in seven nights versus a much more rested team, it is by and large a scenario that sees the home team benefiting. But sharpies must be aware of both the rule and the exception.
Be cognizant there are actually teams that play better on the road or more accurately from a handicapping standpoint their home/road variance is less than the norm. Thus especially when getting points they become of great value on the highway, but are also great go-against plays at home. The teams with disproportionately better play on the road will sneak under the oddsmaking radar much more than Jekyll & Hyde better-at-home teams.
Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Chicago are examples of sports cities that far and away have the most passionate fans. Passion is a double edged sword. There are no better fans and hence home field/court advantage when the home team is playing well, but conversely when a massive slump hits so often being host is a home field disadvantage.
Pittsburgh is one of the great football towns in the nation and even in the post Steele Curtain days the Steelers were pretty invincible at home. It’s unlikely anyone knowledgeable would dispute the fervor of the faithful intensified their HFA. But the easily rattled mega talented Kordell Stewart was a much better quarterback on the road throughout his career than at he was the confluence of the Allegheny, Ohio and Monongahela. The boo-birds became the 12th man for the wrong team. This is a prime example as circumstances changed there was also a colossal modulation in home/road variance.
Conversely the same can be true but for completely different reasons in Miami and Atlanta for example. Arguably the two worst pro sports towns in the USA the empty arena at Phillips Arena in Atlanta for the Hawks is no benefit but when things are going well the bandwagon fills up quickly. Ask the Heat. One pony towns like Portland and Sacramento had magnified eminence on their home courts because of fan enthusiasm and conversely were disproportionately overvalued on the road.
I have seen some worthy power ratings in my day. Most take into account individual HFA that is acknowledging that the extent of home field advantage is not across the board. However with only a few exceptions even the more accurate rankings are oblivious to the equally important piece of information that road disadvantage is also not global. Recognizing one and not the other can actually be counterproductive and be another example of the would-be handicapping kingpin outsmarting oneself.
Any time there are off-court or off-field distractions so often the road is a sanctuary. We see this often with college teams under investigation for the proverbial Apossible sanctions@. From a handicapping standpoint these teams become undervalued on the road but overvalued at home. This is why the Trail Blazers went from a great home court to the Jail Blazers struggling in Oregon.
Exploiting these deviations is a three-step process. First one must find the statistical irregularity. Then one must analyze why the anomalism exists. Finally one must accurately conclude whether the state of affairs that led up to the deviation has been altered. If so, one must disregard the anomaly. If there is no significant fluctuation in the then and now comparison, the sharp player has a winning angle to build towards the preponderance.
To paraphrase a famous movie line, when searching for your wallet’s desire look no further than a team’s own backyard.
Just don’t forget how the other team performs away from their house.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.
Spread Betting: Dichotomous ATS and SU Game
One of our successful angles is our “dichotomous ATS and SU game”. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.
We also speak of our “competitor consensus”. If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a “competitor consensus”.
Combining the two tools, we have one area which proves to be extremely nice to our client’s bankrolls.
In our endless brainstorming with other professional handicappers and VIP gamblers, we believe the “dichotomous angle” not only overlaps with some of their procedures but in trading intel with our outsourced contacts combines the best of all of our worlds.
A technique used with those who are crackerjacks in this approach is dissecting margin of cover. Notice we said margin of “cover”, not margin of victory. The patriarchs on this prescription have slightly different wrinkles on how exactly to apply it. However the baseborn premise is that if a team’s spread win-loss record is at a high percent, its handicapping value is verified or nullified by how close the spread wins and losses were.
As an illustration, let us say a team is 15-5 to the Vegas odds for the year. The mere trendmeister would say that is a team to bet with. Those who research margin of cover, the much brighter gambler in fact, scrutinizes much deeper.
If for example the five ATS setbacks were by a combined 43 points and the 15 wins were by a collective 38 points, the 15-5 trend is fool’s gold. However if the 15 covers were by an average of 10 points per game and the setbacks by 2.5 points per game the trend becomes an angle.
Sure the 15-5 team would be the “better” spread team but I’ve yet to find a place in which you can bet retroactively. In foreseeing the future the fact their “margin of cover” was a negative seven tells us they are not a “strong” spread team and their record is not a symptom of being undervalued, just having had fortuitous covers.
We strengthen, weaken or cancel plays based on whether our information trafficking enhances or contradicts our own findings. Both the dichotomous and margin angles ensure that trends pass the litmus test of rising to being an “angle” before application.
Having an information trade treaty with other masterminds safeguards there will be systematic checks and balances.
And getting big checks with nice balances from offshore is what it’s all about.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks at OffshoreInsiders.com He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.
Take the Bookmaker Off of This Year’s Christmas Gift List
JoeDuffy.net is proud to announce after one year of personally experiencing perfect payouts and receiving many testimonials we can now recommend My Bookie to the elite list of books we use.
My Bookie has 5% vig Tuesdays, lay just -105. They also have free ½ point Fridays. They’ve been thoroughly checked by JoeDuffy.net and meet our approval.
Take the Bookmaker Off Of This Year’s Christmas Gift List
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Yes ’tis the season for giving, but why do you insist on helping your sports investment bookkeeper pay for that new Beamer every Christmas? Thanks to you he can buy one for his wife and girlfriend too. I hope you have a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing that you have stuffed the stockings of every one of your BM’s loved ones.
I have warned you before, but just like the Surgeon General’s warning, it just seems to go unnoticed. No bookie feels like Mr. Scrooge around the holidays because his phone rings from people who celebrate the season of the sucker bet.
Are you dreaming of a green Christmas just like the one that we Wise Guys know?
\There are many “sucker bets” to which the gambler becomes an all too voluntary participant, but none costs him more money than the ultimate trap-betting on teams in “must win” games especially versus teams that have no chance at making the playoffs.
The reasons that this costs gamblers millions a year are more plentiful than spiked eggnog on Christmas Eve, but let us count ways. The first is the outlandish belief that the team that has no chance at making the postseason has nothing to play for. As if a job is not something to want to save. One must realize the ramifications for an also ran tanking their final games or game. It can be fatal from a high six figure a year minimum career standpoint.
Let us use the San Francisco 49ers for example. Take a look at their roster and tell me how many guys you would lay the vig and bet they definitely have a job sewn up for next year. Furthermore, even for those players that you can safely assume will be on some NFL roster, how many current starters will you wager are insured of starting the following year?
Chances are not many. Most of the players who allegedly have no motivation to perform are merely fighting for their football lives. Did you ever hear the saying that fear is the best motivator? Kurt Warner may be the all-time feel good story about going from stocking shelves to stuffing pictures of dead Presidents in his fat wallet. But players on teams with two or three wins entering the final week or two of the year have to do whatever it takes from being the nameless guy who takes the reverse rout of Warner.
Not to mention, the chance to play spoiler in many cases versus a hated division rival is well, at the risk of using a cliché, that team’s personal playoff game. No team worth its weight in steroids will shrug off the thought of another team celebrating clinching a playoff birth at their expense. Knocking a team out of playoff contention and solidifying one’s job for the following season acts as enough to debunk that twisted thinking, but not so fast there is further reason why betting on teams in must win games is twisted.
There is an unfounded assumption that teams perform better when they have to win. Teams that perform their best under pressure are not in must win games at the end of the year. They are instead trying to pick up their 13th win. If a team is 8-6 for example heading into the final two weeks, are the pro “must win” people telling me the six losses were in non-pressure games?
Plus gamblers must know one of the Golden Rule’s (hey what happened to my cheesy Christmas references?). The oddsmakers are one-step, no two-steps; no make that a country mile ahead of you.
The little known fact is that Roxy and the linesmakers also factor betting pattern when making the line. Believe me they are more than aware of the convoluted traps that most gamblers fall into. If you insist on going with the “must win” team, get ready to lay at least three extra points bare minimum.
In addition to the twisted accepted wisdom there are other factors that lead a gambler down the path to arrears. The public of course loves betting favorites to begin with. But they essentially feel safer betting quality teams and despise investing with pathetic teams almost as if there is a subconscious belief that the oddsmakers have no idea of the talent discrepancies when posting the line. Somehow the physiological pain of four losses out of ten when betting on the Cowboys is worse than the six losses out of ten betting on the Rams.
I do not know how many times I have heard people say to the effect, “I would rather lose betting on the (superior team) than lose by betting on the (horrible team)” not knowing of the actuality that they are espousing a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Not that I should complain. As somebody who sells picks for a living I realize if it were not for people losing money on their own, I would not have many clients. But for those of you who do bet on your own put this article under the Christmas tree this year and your will have a Happy Betting New Year.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.