Handicappers Must Have a Threshold for Systematic Winning
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Amongst our permanent clients the single most common question we get revolves around the position of “That system you been using is great, but doesn’t it seem like the parameters should point to the opposite pick?” So often our systems would be the converse to “conventional logic”. In gambling, acknowledging that “conventional logic” is almost always an oxymoron will put one on the right path to winning. Thus going against the grain is more times than not a stupendous line of attack.
As a for instance, many of our systems involve bad offenses going over, good and hot teams being go against and bad and cold teams being ATS goldmines. There are two huge rationales why this is the case.
The first answer is in the “should it not be the opposite?” line of non-thinking. Lines are made very much to adjust to public perception. Handicapping can be loosely defined as the art of finding the undervalued and overvalued teams. The teams at the top of the standings, even if they are a Cinderella team won’t fly under the radar too long. The public fears betting bottom feeders. As we discussed in our article “It is Good to Pick Bad” we synthesize the science of handicapping public perception.
Somewhat related though is the importance of what we call analyzing whether a team will reach their “threshold” or not. Nothing affects the pre-adjusted line (meaning before injuries, public perception and other considerations) than the two teams’ performances to date.
If someone could look into the proverbial crystal ball and tell you that both teams in an NBA game will shoot 10 percent above their season average, would you bet the over or the under? Chances are that you would happily invest in the over. Of course I know we preach a preponderance of evidence in handicapping, but I am trying to simplify the illustration.
Comparably in another game you had the two worst shooting teams in the NBA playing each other. Such hypothetical would put each of their field goal percentages at approximately 41 percent. Each team would need to hit just more than half their shots to exceed the aforestated threshold by 10 percentage points. However if it involved the two top shooting teams, that would put each team around the 48 percent mark meaning each team would have to shoot 58 percent to reach the exact same threshold. So in that comparison 58 percent shooting by both teams in one game is the equivalent of 51 percent in the other game.
How appropriate it’s called handicapping, because a team’s performance to date much like a “handicap” in your neighborhood beer bowling league is what the pointspread is based on.
I know a big time square player whom I will call Sal. Sal likes picking college hoop totals and one of his built in chestnuts is regurgitating, “I love the over in this game because both teams love to shoot the three point shot.”
“What’s the total Sal?” cohort Leo Shafto and I time and time again ask the dunderhead. Sal stammers, “It doesn’t matter, both teams will shoot a lot of threes.” Sal the Simpleton is oblivious to the high total, unfazed once he sees it and totally unwitting to the fact that to go over both teams will not only likely have to shoot a bunch of three-point shots, but exceed the high zenith and make an inordinate number to win his bet. This is especially the case to win based on the reasons Sal gave.
Systems that “make sense” to the uneducated eye are the ones that raise a red flag to the learned. Knowing “conventional logic” is an even bigger oxymoron in handicapping because oddsmakers are aware of public perception and knowing it’s easier to exceed a low threshold than a high threshold is indispensable wisdom.
As always system plays are only part of handicapping. We don’t consider a system to be statistically significant unless it has a Z-score of 4.0 or higher (statisticians consider 2.0 to be statistically significant. Or systems must have an ROI of 80 or above. But it is almost as important to be aware why systems work.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

Good Handicappers Are In Midseason Form in the Preseason
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said that championships are won in the preseason. Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire preseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading Dallas to the Super Bowl. But I digress. The thrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason as well.
I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and percentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began handicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.
The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try to foretell preseason battles. The belief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many nameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be getting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs.
True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based on fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the contrary.
The reality is that smart players realize that such mentioned disadvantages actually apply to the oddsmaker and not the gambler. With the proliferation of offshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting advanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and more towards the player, well at least to the wise player.
Preseason lines are made now a week in advance. After the first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding contest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.
The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with a lot more uncertainty that the bettor does. Of course lines do adjust—sometimes over adjust based on this information and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still limited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed by line shoppers and “middle” players. “Bette Middlers” is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.
Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason football. Rarely is there a game in which coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key player rotations as well as injuries. It is not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that a team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or many analogous situations.
As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive schemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr. Rozelle, that’s what they are). But yet when teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players projected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts, blitzes, etc.
But because the purpose is for the players to learn a system and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost never kept secret. However rarely in preseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research uncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while the opponent is going to keep it straightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.
There are eternal issues that affects how critically each team approaches a particular preseason game, such as new systems on both or either side of the ball, the number of established veterans on each team who will only play some token downs merely for timing and getting in shape, the number of positions and roster spots up for grabs, individual coaches philosophies on how to approach a preseason game. The inventory really never ends.
But so often the coaches and key players own comments will give strong insight into whether or not there is an enormous dichotomy in how each team is approaching a forthcoming game. Inevitably a coach especially one of a young or perennially losing team will flat out state something to the effect, “We need to instill a winning attitude and habit early. We want to enter the regular season with some wins under our belt.” Not-so-uncommon annotations like that set off sirens at Godspicks.
The Dallas Cowboys for years were one of the great preseason go-against plays, especially during the “Triplets” era of Irvin, Smith and Aikman because most of the key starting positions were already etched in stone. Whether or not Jimmy Johnson or Barry Switzer was the coach, the Cowboys played future Arena Football players using the most basic schemes.
Read those newspapers and you will find that on any given preseason weekend, there will be several matchups in which one team will be play key members longer than their opponent or that one team because of injuries and precautions will be much more shorthanded at kickoff than their foe.
It is always important to keep a close eye on teams whose first and second string players were on one side of a dominating performance. So often such will effect how much work the key players will get the following week. If a veteran first unit outscored their foe 14-0 one week, there is a good chance that they be given little work the next week. But do not assume this to be the case. Hometown newspapers leave little to speculation by printing coaches’ answers to the obvious questions.
It is a pretty good general rule of thumb that teams off of humiliating losses will come out with vengeance the following week. But there is a reason that I qualified such statement with “pretty good” and “general”. Final scores can be deceptive in any and all sports but such is the case even more so in preseason football.
If a team loses 28-7 but the first and second teams were outscored 21-0, while the mop-up guys played evenly, it is a huge difference than if it were visa versa. The third and fourth stringers if totally outplayed are digging ditches and contacting the Barcelona Dragons. But if it were the primary players who were humiliated, they are the ones who have a fire lit under them.
It is much more important to look at how the respective top two units played than the actual final score. However one must very much take into account all the extenuating factors involved entering the game, as illustrated above. Perhaps a teams top two units were shorthanded against an opponent who used complicated schemes breaking in new systems. But I do love betting on teams whose first and second units got a good ole fashioned no-excuses butt whipping to rebound accordingly.
One has to though find that fine line between going with all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly so with the public jumping on the same side that you are.
I honestly can not give a definitive scientific explanation of exactly how my handicapping has been complimented so well by line moves, other than to know that it defies any laws of probability. But somewhere there is a congruency amongst my handicapping techniques, the opening line and public perception that affects the line moves.
I can with full honesty say that in preseason just as I do during the regular season, I win a lot more than I lose. However so many times if early in the week I pencil side A as a play only to have the public bet side A so much that the line moves enough to scare me off of the game, only to have side B cover both ends of the line move. Somehow there is a complimentary congruency in my handicapping that increases my winning percentage even further.
But all factors equal, I very much like going against preseason line moves of 2’ or more points. When those moves are not justified by the factors outlined about, I often make selections based about 85% on unjustified line, moves. But line moves that I deem justified more times than not results in a no-play.
The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a talented handicapper realizes that, he has taken first step towards a nice regular season bankroll. But after that, it still takes research, research, research…
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio. His Wise Guy Plays are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

Good Handicappers Are In Midseason Form in the Preseason
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said that championships are won in the preseason. Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire preseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading Dallas to the Super Bowl. But I digress. The thrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason as well.
I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and percentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began handicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.
The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try to foretell preseason battles. The belief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many nameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be getting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs.
True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based on fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the contrary.
The reality is that smart players realize that such mentioned disadvantages actually apply to the oddsmaker and not the gambler. With the proliferation of offshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting advanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and more towards the player, well at least to the wise player.
Preseason lines are made now a week in advance. After the first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding contest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.
The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with a lot more uncertainty that the bettor does. Of course lines do adjust—sometimes over adjust based on this information and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still limited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed by line shoppers and “middle” players. “Bette Middlers” is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.
Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason football. Rarely is there a game in which coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key player rotations as well as injuries. It is not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that a team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or many analogous situations.
As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive schemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr. Rozelle, that’s what they are). But yet when teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players projected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts, blitzes, etc.
But because the purpose is for the players to learn a system and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost never kept secret. However rarely in preseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research uncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while the opponent is going to keep it straightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.
There are eternal issues that affects how critically each team approaches a particular preseason game, such as new systems on both or either side of the ball, the number of established veterans on each team who will only play some token downs merely for timing and getting in shape, the number of positions and roster spots up for grabs, individual coaches philosophies on how to approach a preseason game. The inventory really never ends.
But so often the coaches and key players own comments will give strong insight into whether or not there is an enormous dichotomy in how each team is approaching a forthcoming game. Inevitably a coach especially one of a young or perennially losing team will flat out state something to the effect, “We need to instill a winning attitude and habit early. We want to enter the regular season with some wins under our belt.” Not-so-uncommon annotations like that set off sirens at Godspicks.
The Dallas Cowboys for years were one of the great preseason go-against plays, especially during the “Triplets” era of Irvin, Smith and Aikman because most of the key starting positions were already etched in stone. Whether or not Jimmy Johnson or Barry Switzer was the coach, the Cowboys played future Arena Football players using the most basic schemes.
Read those newspapers and you will find that on any given preseason weekend, there will be several matchups in which one team will be play key members longer than their opponent or that one team because of injuries and precautions will be much more shorthanded at kickoff than their foe.
It is always important to keep a close eye on teams whose first and second string players were on one side of a dominating performance. So often such will effect how much work the key players will get the following week. If a veteran first unit outscored their foe 14-0 one week, there is a good chance that they be given little work the next week. But do not assume this to be the case. Hometown newspapers leave little to speculation by printing coaches’ answers to the obvious questions.
It is a pretty good general rule of thumb that teams off of humiliating losses will come out with vengeance the following week. But there is a reason that I qualified such statement with “pretty good” and “general”. Final scores can be deceptive in any and all sports but such is the case even more so in preseason football.
If a team loses 28-7 but the first and second teams were outscored 21-0, while the mop-up guys played evenly, it is a huge difference than if it were visa versa. The third and fourth stringers if totally outplayed are digging ditches and contacting the Barcelona Dragons. But if it were the primary players who were humiliated, they are the ones who have a fire lit under them.
It is much more important to look at how the respective top two units played than the actual final score. However one must very much take into account all the extenuating factors involved entering the game, as illustrated above. Perhaps a teams top two units were shorthanded against an opponent who used complicated schemes breaking in new systems. But I do love betting on teams whose first and second units got a good ole fashioned no-excuses butt whipping to rebound accordingly.
One has to though find that fine line between going with all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly so with the public jumping on the same side that you are.
I honestly can not give a definitive scientific explanation of exactly how my handicapping has been complimented so well by line moves, other than to know that it defies any laws of probability. But somewhere there is a congruency amongst my handicapping techniques, the opening line and public perception that affects the line moves.
I can with full honesty say that in preseason just as I do during the regular season, I win a lot more than I lose. However so many times if early in the week I pencil side A as a play only to have the public bet side A so much that the line moves enough to scare me off of the game, only to have side B cover both ends of the line move. Somehow there is a complimentary congruency in my handicapping that increases my winning percentage even further.
But all factors equal, I very much like going against preseason line moves of 2’ or more points. When those moves are not justified by the factors outlined about, I often make selections based about 85% on unjustified line, moves. But line moves that I deem justified more times than not results in a no-play.
The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a talented handicapper realizes that, he has taken first step towards a nice regular season bankroll. But after that, it still takes research, research, research…
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio. His Wise Guy Plays are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

Good Amateur Psychologists Make Great Handicappers
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Long-time clients know when I mention the name Yogi Berra in our game breakdown, we have a good likelihood of winning. We often quote his “90 percent of the game is half mental” malapropism. Very often teams are playing two opponents—the guys in the other uniform and a mental whammy.
Several illustrations have applied very recently. The most high profile would be the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs falling prey to billy goat and Bambino curses. Also Florida and Godspicks again cashed in against Georgia in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. Going with Michigan against John Cooper’s Ohio State teams was free money.
Regular clients know that this is not a case being a hindsight genius. There was no reservations that the Chicago Cubs should have been heavy favorites “on paper” in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS. They were playing at home with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior on the hill with the 3-2 lead.
With Pedro Martinez on the pitcher’s mound, the Red Sox “on paper” was justified in being a road favorite in Game 7.
One need not believe in Voodoo or witch doctors to subscribe to “jinxes”. But regardless of the origin of the alleged hex, one need only to acknowledge that the brain is the most forceful muscle in an athlete’s body.
Natalie Newton is a former athlete and well respected sports psychologist. She articulates, “What you have to realize is that any time you put two losses or errors or mistakes or any negative experiences back to back, then the anticipation turns into expecting a third loss,” Newton eloquently explains a theory that I subscribed to as a handicapper for years. “So if you’ve lost to a same team or same person or had a same similar error occur two times in a row, then the expectation is for it to occur the next time. Some people call it superstition. Whatever you want to call it, that is a natural human expectation.”
The more I hear and read about coaches and players denying a jinx or “curse”, the more I take into account that it becomes increasing inescapable for a team to not bear this mental weight.
Dr. Newtown fluently expresses why we think it is no coincidence that both the Cubs and Red Sox were five outs from a World Series birth before imploding or that Florida again beat a more talented Bulldog team on the last series of their 2003 football contest.
In times of pressure one team’s subconscious reminds them that history tells them they will win, the other team…well this is from a website Bambinocurse.com “If you look at voodoo or Santeria, psychologists will tell you that the curses work because the people truly believe in it. Neurology is full of cases demonstrating the power of our own minds, consciously or unconsciously, over our bodies.”
Sports psychologists and coaches will tell you if a player believes his lucky socks make him perform better, chances are they will. When I read that coaches have found something mechanical that a slumping player had been doing wrong, I realize believing there is a corrected flaw is every bit as effective as there actually being one.
The fact that professional and college teams have hired sports psychologists or that coaches believe in “bulletin board material” is beyond corroboration that elite handicappers have to recognize when black magic is one teams opponent of the psyche.
When foretelling the outcome of games, a team’s mindset is a terrible thing to waste. Those who pooh-pooh such will curse themselves.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.
His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com where daily sports handicapping information is available to crush the sportsbooks. Godspicks.com is the top source for NFL picks, college football winners and more.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 14
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
This is the latest in a serious of a Godgepodge of gambling strategy and thoughts.
Great Read
The best gambling related magazine I’ve seen is Highroller (www.highrollerlife.com). It covers ever aspect of gambling and is certainly a must read for all poker players. My understanding is it is very commonplace at newsstands. It gets the much sought after Godspicks seal of approval.
The next time you head out for some Doritos and brew, pick up a copy.
Bulletin Board Material
There is some value to handicapping the intangible of so-called “bulletin board material”. That is one team with a player calling out the other team. However sometimes it can benefit the trash talking team, other times a detriment. There is a certain physiological warfare and we find a veteran player questioning the big game capabilities of a key young player on another team is does rather a player when things are going well.
Ironically the other extreme is that a well disciplined team can also be flustered. The famed guarantees of Mark Messier, Joe Namath, and Jimmy Johnson are examples of the consistent and superior teams being taken off their single-mindedness.
One of the best assertions I’ve heard is from someone who believes handicapping the effects of such can have great value in football. He believes practice preparation is much underrated—we do too as we’ve previously spoken of what great precursors “great week” or “poor week” of practices are. He believes “bulletin board material” increases focus and determination during the week more than having a direct affect after kickoff.
Contrary to popular belief, it’s worse to call out underachieving teams or players that need a wake-up call. Why light a fire under Randy Moss? It’s the old why wake up a sleeping dog syndrome.
Conversely a top shelf team didn’t become that good by waiting for some blowhard on the other team to provoke them. From a “face saving” standpoint, there are risks to calling out a much more exceptional opponent However in 1994 when the Cowboys Jimmy Johnson took his dog Pokes to Candlestick Park and proclaimed “put it in three-inch headlines. We will win” he proved correct. As Johnson correctly stated years later, he believes he got underneath the skin of the usually clearheaded collection of veteran future Hall-of-Famers as they engaged the Cowboys in a pre-game near brawl.
Thriving teams are more likely to be distracted by being on the giving or receiving end of calling out. Struggling teams are more likely to be awoken. In short, a big favorite does not need to have the boat rocked by a braggadocio on either team.
The Dictionary as a Handicapping Tool
With conference tournaments followed by the Big Dance upon us, it is imperative we warn you against yet another dunce assumption that gamblers make about neutral site games, be it in football and basketball. Neutral according to the dictionary means “Not aligned with, supporting, or favoring either side in a war, dispute, or contest.”
The dumb cluck investor overplays road statistics when weighing performance to date. This is a gross misapplication. A road game is a game on the opponent’s court. The oddsmakers absolutely are prepared for this common delusion. A neutral court is just that—it’s no more a road game than a home game.
Of course we consider if one team has to travel much further or is bringing along a much larger supporting section, but that’s part of the research. And under that circumstance one team’s neutral game is more like a home than a road battle.
But the presupposition that one should handicap each team’s road performance disproportionately is not based on any factual historical data or simple common sense. Wise men handicap neutral games like the dictionary defines them, not as if each team is playing a road contest.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 13
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Inconsistency is Your Friend
Here is another Golden Rule of handicapping. As Schneider from One Day at a Time used to say, “Always remember and never forget” what is bad for the oddsmakers is good for you. What is good for the oddsmakers is bad for you. The linesmakers and square players loathe uncertainty. That’s why books love the square player; they play to linesmakers’ strengths while the sharp player will exploit their weakness.
Games are circled or off-the-board because of ambiguous injury information to a key player, severe weather or sometimes pending motivation factors late in the year concerning playoff ramifications, coaches resting healthy key players, etc. Why? The sharp players use equivocal information as a resource not a liability.
I hear bush league punters (as they call them in Europe) all the time say something along the lines of, “I just can’t get a handle on that team. I avoid their games altogether.” I’ve spoken to most of the big name oddsmakers and sportsbook directors at one time or another and every one of them will bemoan that the haphazard teams are the ones they despise the most. “Predictably unpredictable” teams are very high percentage plays. Such teams are box of chocolates–you never know what you will get. That’s why taking a large pointspread number in a game in which the oddsmakers struggle to cipher is a good venture. There are many teams that will on a predictable basis follow up a great effort with a dud and visa versa. This is typical of young teams or those with erratic star players, and talented but poorly coached teams.
Hence contrary to what Joeybagodonuts thinks, it’s actually better to go against “predictably unpredictable” teams when playing well and with them when they are playing poorly. Combining the two, inconsistent big dogs are good percentage plays to bet on and inconsistent favorites playing well are go-against plays. In short the same teams that seem to loathe prosperity also are the most dangerous once essentially counted out. When it comes to bettors, winners are proactive, losers are reactive.
That’s a Bowl of Crap
There are not many givens in gambling. One that’s almost etched in stone is the books make a windfall during the bowls. The square players come out of the woodwork for the bowls and March Madness. One of the biggest groupthink falsities is those who believe in betting the teams that enter bowl season the hottest. While we do find that true for March Madness, in both the conference tournaments and the Dance, not only is it not true for football’s postseason, actually more times than not it’s the opposite. But that’s why there are not many bookmakers in the breadline. Conventional illogical separates the fool from his money.
Which team needs 20-30 days off the most—the team playing their best football at the end of the year, or the one playing their worst? Rest can often take a team out of their rhythm, be it good or bad pulse. Three weeks is a lot of time for mentally and physically tired teams to regroup. Also it’s the perfect trap for a peaking team to lose their edge.
Be a Fan of Fan Attendance For Bowl Games
Not all widely held conventions are based on illogic, though in many cases there is still more that meets the eye and the pocket. A great example is most gamblers sharp and square realize if there is a huge difference in fan contingencies one team brings to a bowl game, there is without debate an advantage to the team that will have more partisans on a neutral field. But this advantage is exploitable when it’s actually a symptom of a greater truth. Especially when it comes to minor bowls, one of the biggest x-factors is analyzing which teams are truly interested and which are playing in a consolation game.
In that sense the fans and the players are congruent. If there is less fan interest, there is less player interest and visa versa. There’s a chicken/egg scenario in there somewhere. However if the dichotomy is better explained by one school being much physically closer to the site of the bowl or a larger school with more alumni then the advantage is lessened. However if one school is transporting a much larger contingent despite a geographical inconvenience, there we have an angle. That’s a strong indicator one team considers the bowl a major contest while the other is in the proverbial kissing-your-sister game.
Media reports and the teams’ and bowls press releases are sources for accurate information on which teams will have the bigger cheering sections.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 12
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Listen to the Oddsmakers
When I first got into the handicapping business years ago, I was a knowledge sponge. I’d seek out advice from tested, proven, battle-scarred high rollers. One nugget that applied decades ago and still does in the modern offshore line era is “the oddsmakers often tell you something”. We’ve discussed numerous examples of using the oddsmakers’ knowledge against them. A huge case in point is when a team has a long winless or undefeated streak and the posted line contradicts the donut. There have been three screaming examples this year of as Oscar Dooley likes to say “there has got to be a reason why”, two in consecutive days. Despite having the nation’s longest road losing streak at 24, Baylor was a road favorite. That would qualify as a major proclamation by the line chefs. Were you listening? Baylor wins by five and covers.
Michigan ranked No. 25 in the nation was a three-point road favorite to Northwestern ranked No. 21 at the time. They destroyed the higher ranked home dogs 33-17. It is very rare a lower ranked team is ever a road favorite to a higher ranked team, much less a field goal. Another statement by the books and we were all ears. Our worst non-pick of the year was the next day when the Houston Texans, the NFL’s last winless team was a favorite to Cleveland. They win and cover. We learned from our huge mistake. Bad handicappers whine how their losers were “right plays”. Good handicappers consider loses valuable lessons.
The big exception is teams as a favorite trying to snap a huge series slide, especially in college sports. We’ve discussed numerous times about teams having mental whammies over their foes and that supersedes the above theory. But an overwhelming majority of the time the oddsmakers tell you a drought or prosperity will end, chances are the almost always small favorite will cover.
To paraphrase an old commercial, when the oddsmakers talk, wiseguys listen.
Upside Down You Turn Me
Two magic buzzwords in handicapping are “upside” and “downside”. The deeper a team goes into the season, the more the odds are based on their performance to date. Teams that have underachieved are generally good spread teams for the remainder of the year. On the other hand, underachieving teams are by and large great fades. However this is merely a part of square one in handicapping and far from a lead pipe rule. In our popular essay, “It is Good to Pick Bad” we discuss how the public has a lot more comfort betting on good teams rather than poor teams. In addition to the reasons discussed in that article, simply put a team with a .800 winning percentage has a lot more downside; while a team with a .200 winning percentage has the upside. Again one must analyze each team individually, but these are very good rules of thumb.
As an example I am a big fan of running games in the NFL. I believe it sets up the pass more than visa versa, though the other is true. Furthermore a running game keeps the defense off the field. There is no question Jamal Lewis is a much better running back than he’s shown this year. Baltimore’s running game would be a perfect example of an upside.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. Today’s free winner, news, notes, articles, sportsbook bonuses and more are at http://betonsports.blogspot.com

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 11
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
This is the latest in a series of articles in which we give you a Godspodge of sports betting tips, strategies and more.
Fair and Balanced
We have touted Foxsheets as our favorite commercial statistical source. However they are far from perfect. Their update times are extremely inconsistent and always dead last of the major sources to bring up to date their database. This is especially detrimental in getting an early start in sports like the NBA and especially MLB when teams play in back-to-back days. It’s principally excruciating when there is day baseball or March Madness conference tourneys when there are afternoon games involving back-to-back action.
Also several systems are poorly written where some can be counted twice, especially when dealing with totals. For example if an NBA system reads, and we will essentially rewrite their confusing algorithmic language, “If a team is off a double-digit SU win as an underdog, it goes over at a 173-76 rate”.
Occasionally this system would apply to both teams. The problem being with Foxsheets, they count the system as 0-2 or 2-0.
Selling Plays and Advertising Sportsbooks
A popular FAQ is whether or not there is a conflict of interest in selling plays and accepting sportsbook advertising. Funny how long-term clients never ask that question.
While I don’t know of any scientific number comparisons, the number of clients who bet at sportsbooks is enormously higher than the number that purchase sports service selections. The biggest sportsbooks are looking for volume. They can adjust the line to ensure that there is enough square money to balance the sharp money. Ideally a sportsbook would love to have 50 percent action on each side in every game. Hence half the money wins every game. To be brutally honest, there are a lot more crap handicappers out there than good ones and the crap handicappers send clients to help sportsbooks get balanced action.
There is a famous radio host who likes to say, “I am equal time”. Not that we want to sound too braggadocios but we are balance to the commonplace sucker play.
We always urge line shopping, but we would only recommend a sportsbook that we personally place bets. Having a reliable sportsbook that pays, helps our business not hinders it.
Truthfully, the ethical reasons aside, I don’t think there are realistic benefits to putting out a lousy product and somehow trying to “win for losing”. We have the largest number of repeat clients in the industry. We are paid on referrals by sportsbooks and would never, ever accept a commission on losses. Those handicappers that do accept commission on losses arguably have crossed the line.
And finally if anyone really thinks a sports service is giving away ruse plays to benefit the books, just bet against the plays. It will be fool’s gold if you do it with Godspicks, but ultimately we are only responsible for the plays we release, not how you bet them.
Key Numbers in Football
We always stress the importance of line shopping, but this so much more true when it comes to key numbers. Key numbers are in short a disproportionate margin of victory falls on that number. In football, the top two key numbers are three and seven. Historically about 1-of-6 games in the NFL have a margin of victory of three points. Hence the difference between getting or laying three and 3.5 is much more significant from a line shopping standpoint then 3.5 and 5.5.
However the aforesaid latter move is important too as four is a minor key number. In college the margins can be larger, but any numerator of three, seven and ten are key numbers.
This is why sportsbooks prefer to adjust juice on a key number, especially three in the NFL rather than move the line. In other words if most of the money is on a favorite of three points, instead of moving the line to 3.5 the books an overwhelming majority of time will move it to -3 (-120) instead.
An NFL move off of three points, except in the case of injuries, is now almost unheard of.
Sharp shoppers and players must be responsive to the ramifications of a line move that crosses a key number. A pure steam move (no injury or extenuating circumstances moved the line) that puts a game on or off a key number will effect the probability factor of a game covering. For us it often turns a bet into a pass or passing on a game into a play. But always shop so you won’t have to drop.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.
When it comes to beating the NFL odds, college football odds and the sportsbooks in baseball, college basketball and the NBA, Godspicks.com is the nation’s premier sports service. Free spread winners daily are at Godspicks.com.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 9
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
This is the latest in a series, a Godgepodge of sports gambling discussion.
Another Tool in Home Field Advantage
We’ve said many times that home field/court advantage is far from equal. “Good starting point” is the term that always comes to mind with the power ratings discussed in a previous Tid-bet. But the ability to look outside the box is imperative in all facets of handicapping and analyzing the extent of HFA on a game by game basis is high on the list.
Rivals.com recently wrote an article with the not-so-original title from my favorite movie, “There is No Place Like Home”. Though the article is limited in scope, it’s one we’ve saved because it does have usefulness to the gambler in accurately saying which stadiums are the toughest to play in and most importantly why and under what circumstances.
They of course tout the popular theory about LSU’s home field advantage increasing at night because the fans love to tailgate and get more juiced, literally and figuratively by the time the sun goes down. The article brings attention to why the Wisconsin “Fifth Quarter” tradition keeps the fans into the game even in fourth quarter blowouts, something to consider in large pointspreads and betting 4th quarter lines.
We’ve always said there is no more important handicapping statistic in all sports than home/road dichotomy. The article brings into focus a perspective that goes beyond the useful but far from perfect power ratings and raw statistics.
Look-Ahead, Letdown and Sandwich Games
For the gambling newbie, the definitions of the above terms are fairly self explanatory. Look-ahead games are contests in which one opponent may not be totally focused on their current game because a bigger competition is on the horizon. Letdown games are when a team may not be emotionally ready after playing one of their biggest games of the year or perhaps following suffering a heartbreaking loss, stunning win or any circumstance that can have a team coming out flat.
Sandwich games are just that: a game that is in between a letdown game and a look-ahead contest. They are much more prevalent in college football and basketball at least percentage wise. However in the five-game-in-seven-nights drudge that can be the NBA, we’ve found under proper circumstances, pro basketball situations present themselves too. Most importantly because of the preponderance of games, those contests sneak under the radar, visible only the sharpest of players.
Far and away the most common parameter when an opportunity arises is a big favorite overlooking an inferior team. Sandwich games in college football are generally the games that most often hold true to expected form for the capper. A big favorite coming off a defining victory and facing a watershed game the following week is the exact set of circumstances that we exploit most often, pouncing on the live dog.
In college football, both winning and losing teams off of a multiple overtime game gets a long look from us as a possible go-against the following week in a letdown situation.
Stop Teasing
We often get questins about the viability of teasers. Teasers prey on the psychology of the square player who craves the (facade of) an extra security blanket. The only circumstance that sharp players consistently play teasers is 10-point teasers in the NFL. Thanks to so-called parity in the NFL, blowouts are rare and often it’s the dog that wins. So for example making a seven-point dog a 17 point pup is the one type situation that some sharp players have exploited on a consistent basis in the NFL.
We don’t like parlays either because—here’s a shock–the best handicappers don’t hit 100 percent. We simply win a lot more than we lose. But going 4-1 and losing in a parlay nullifies good handicapping. The lure of low risk/high return is yet another enticement the books create to help you lose money fast. Joey Bagodonuts pays Frankie at the office $10, picks four games and feels like he bet $100.
Do yourself a favor. Bet the traditional way to win money and have a totally separate entertainment bankroll of disposable income. Use that to bet $10-20 per week on office parlay cards to get that lottery ticket vicarious feeling, but stick to straight betting to experience the thrill of actually winning money.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.