I’m Joe Duffy, CEO of picksdepot.com, uur brand new website, where we’re going to focus on the best US sports books and of course, the top handicappers in the country. 

Please follow me on Twitter at @PicksDepot and make sure if you do like our videos, which you certainly should please literally like them. 

Now before I get to the specific bets, I want to tell you a little bit about my strategy. 

First of all, when you’re talking about and in this report, it’s going to be about NFL over-unders in terms of wins. 

Strength of schedule can be a little bit dicey because you’re asking to look maybe 9 and 10 weeks into the schedule and then guess which teams are the biggest disappointments and the biggest busts and whether or not they’re going to have injuries. I weigh strength of schedule more lightly

than most people would, in part because strength of schedule is definitely taken into account when the odds are made. 

But I really think that is probably the least scientific part of really predicting whether a team is going to go over or under those wins. 

I always start with guys who touch the ball. Of course, you want to have great offensive lineman. Of course, you want to have a tremendous defense, but the key to winning? 

I’m sorry it does start with the quarterback and then the wide receivers tight end and running backs. And yeah, I know running backs aren’t nearly as important as when I first started handicapping back in 1988. The biggest disappointments and the biggest bust are usually the ones with the quarterbacks that either exceed their expectations or go below it. 

And then after that it’s guys who do touch the ball. It’s very rare that a quarterback lives up to performance and they still are disappointing. 

Surprising teams, although you could argue that the team closest to where I’m broadcasting this from, the Atlanta Falcons might be the exception to the rule. 

They do have one of the league’s premier quarterbacks, but haven’t really at least in recent years lived up to expectations. 

Also, disappointing teams from the previous season tend to be the ones that come into this season. Overvalued, and obviously, teams that exceeded expectations the previous season are often the ones that come into this season overvalued. We take that into consideration. So,  my first pick for the 2021-2022 NFL season when it comes to over unders in wins from picksdepot.com is the LA Rams to go under the ten wins. 

Matt Stafford, it’s no secret, I’ve always known that he was an overrated quarterback, and quite frankly, I’ve been right about that. Yeah, I do think there is a possibility of a honeymoon period and quite possibly even the best bet here would be to wait till the Rams get off to a decent start and maybe that total goes up. 

I think it’s going to be kind of similar to what Cam Newton was with the Patriots last year. Remember, he started out looking like he was going to be the answer and then there was a point of diminishing return. 

Matt Stafford is another one of these quarterbacks that has the tremendous arm, but he’s not a very good. 

The reason that his teams are always busts, Matt Stafford needs to look in the mirror. I saw this when he was in college. He made bad decisions when games were on the line, he was able to take defeat from the jaws of victory. And then he’s been doing that in the NFL. The Rams are overrated, they were heisted. 

In addition to that trade, they also lost a ton on defense. Again, I didn’t say that defense is irrelevant. I just said that defense is something that I’m not. 

In a way quite as heavily as I am going to be, the guys that touched the ball but they lost Johnson and Hill all the pressures on Matt Stafford and frankly, Stafford hasn’t handled the pressure. 

Now I don’t question his mental toughness and his physical toughness. I know he’s been through so much with his wife. I mean, I respect the man and I respect him as a family. I know he does take a beating. He’s in many respects like Jeff George. Physical toughness  is one thing, but as far as his ability to perform in big games, and as far as his production matching his talents now he does constantly make bad decisions. 

And Matt Stafford, by the way, as an aside, and this is really important. Stafford’s been a guy that if you know the truth is I don’t really do as much live betting. Maybe as I should. 

By the time the game starts, I like to going out to a sports bar with my friends or the last year with the plague, I watched everything from home. 

A lot of my software, my systems, my models are based on full games, but when I do mess around, Matt Stafford is one of these guys that I like to say is predictably unpredictable. 

If Stafford falls behind in a game, he’s a great bet on the live line. If he takes a big lead in a game, he’s a great bet to fade, because Stafford can look like an all-pro quarterback one quarter and then it could look like a second stringer the next quarter, so he’s one of those guys. 

Sean McVay, He’s typical of, you know, give me talent and I’ll coach him up. 

That’s why he’s overvalued, but people think that Sean McVay is a genius. But you know why? People thought Sean McVay was a genius because he was able to turn around, Jared Goff. Jared Goff had that rookie year where was a disappointment. 

Then McVey took over and all of a sudden Goff looked like he was one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Then he regressed under this alleged genius. So, I think people are expecting that this marriage between McVay and Stafford is going to be somehow magical. 

I don’t believe it. If he was that great of a coach, Jared Goff would still be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Again, because I do think there is going to be a honeymoon period, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams get off to a decent start, but I think they’re going to continue to drop down. 

But still my official bet for this report is the Rams to go under the ten wins. Also from picksdepo: Well, you could have predicted. This the Detroit Lions over the five wins. And yeah, it’s a little confusing. 

It’s a little bit tough for me to make this mental adjustment. I’m thinking Detroit Lions? That’s Matt Stafford, quarterback of the Detroit Lions, right? 

Well, now of course the Lions got the better part of this trade. They had five wins last year, but of course they have that extra game this season. Jared Goff, much like Matt Stafford mew life, and we saw what happened the last time, Jared had new life. He had a fantastic season where he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. You know, the guy that people loved McVay because of Jared Goff. Now he became Mcvay’s scapegoat. 

Anthony Lynn is the offensive coordinator. He loves going out of the shotgun, which is where Goff really excelled in college. 

And and also has to be a coaching upgrade here. Matt Patricia, another in a long line of these Bill Belichick assistants who were terrible as a head coach. 

This is addition by subtraction. The Detroit Lions no longer have Matt Patricia as a coach. I doubt if we’ll get another chance at a head coach. 

Well, he’s he’s young enough. He may, somewhere along the lines, but again, addition by subtraction. 

A new coach, new players. They’re going to have the element of surprise. Some new life. Definitely. Like Detroit over the five wins at PicksDepot. 

Again, follow me on Twitter @PicksDepot. 

Chicago Bears to go under the seven and a half wins. The Bears had six wins as underdogs last year. No other team had more than four, so they weren’t quite as good as the record last year. 

And that’s why I think they definitely come into here overvalued. Also, Andy Dalton is going to start the year as their starting quarterback. 

He’s one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Fields, who may take over before the year’s out, not totally sold on him. 

He kind of has that Sam Darnold ability when the game is on the line to throw big interceptions. Yes, he had the one fantastic game against Clemson his senior year, but also remember Clemson the previous year he made some big mistakes and then in the national championship game last season. Granted was against Alabama. 

He had some mistakes there, so I’m not completely sold on Justin Fields. He’s a work in progress. I do think that Andy Dalton is going to be their starter for most of the year. And like I said Andy Dalton is at best like the 25th, 26th, 27th best quarterback in the league.

He’s either a good backup or a terrible starter, so Chicago under the seven and a half. The Dallas Cowboys also from PicksDepot to go under the nine and a half wins. 

All right, this is going to be somewhat controversial, but don’t let your politics get in the way the facts. 

The Cowboys have a low vaccination rate, especially with this delta variant, and I think they’re going to have players that are going to miss a lot of time being in the COVID protocol franchise. Quarterback Dak Prescott, he’s returning from a brutal injury and remember, Prescott clearly won the job from Tony Romo when he took over for Romo’s injury. But the truth is at best Prescott’s been in a holding pattern since then. 

It looked like Dak Prescott was going to be the next one. Clearly was on his way to being a franchise quarterback, and he’s been kind of so-so since a Prescott hasn’t shown anything to me that he is ready to take that next step and become one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And again, that was a horrific injury. 

Those of you who watched it, I watched it live. This is really a tough injury to come from. So many quarterbacks have struggled to come back from injuries, and it may take him another year or so. 

So Dallas is to one of these teams that on paper, yeah, I know the wide receiving core is pretty impressive. 

A lot of people who I respect have them as the first, second, or third best receiving core in the NFL. They might be able to argue that they’re a little bit overrated still without question one of the elite receiving corps, but again coming back from an injury, a quarterback that really hasn’t progressed the way that we expect it in Dallas is perennially a major disappointment. They never seem to match their expectations and there might be a reason for that because they are. 

They are America’s team, they’re generally going to be overvalued. So again, Dallas under the nine and a half. Remember also like the Chicago Bears under the seven and a half. These are win totals. Of course, Detroit to go over the number. 

I’ve got LA Rams to go under the ten. 

For the best picks, it’s PicksDepot.com we’re hoping to add a bunch of vetted US based sports books there. 

The handicappers that go back to the score phone days 1980. My pics have been public since 1988 on the score phone days, and most importantly, please like subscribe comment. 

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Joe Duffy’s free pick is on

Seattle-Oakland UNDER 7.5 (Montas-Kikuchi)

Starter with total less than any recent starts goes UNDER 3097-2347-245. 

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The number crunchers aren’t projecting a back-to-back MVP to be named following next season.

SportsBetting  released its 2021-22 MVP odds Thursday, and Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic are tied at the top of the 50-player list. 

The reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, ranks eighth on the odds board at 12/1.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid round out the Top 5.

Also, Antetokounmpo is now the favorite (+140) for the NBA Finals MVP. Chris Paul is a close second at +160 while Devin Booker has +210 odds.

2021-22 MVP Odds

Kevin Durant               4/1

Luka Doncic                 4/1

Giannis Antetokounmpo        7/1

Stephen Curry             8/1

Joel Embiid                  8/1

LeBron James              9/1

Damian Lillard             10/1

Nikola Jokic                 12/1

Trae Young                  14/1

Devin Booker              20/1

James Harden             20/1

Jason Tatum                25/1

Russell Westbrook      25/1

Anthony Davis             28/1

Donovan Mitchell                   33/1

Chris Paul                    40/1

Ja Morant                    40/1

Kawhi Leonard                        40/1

Kyrie Irving                  40/1

Paul George                40/1

Zion Williamson                      40/1

Bradley Beal                50/1

Jimmy Butler               60/1

Khris Middleton                      60/1

Jaylen Brown              66/1

Julius Randle               66/1

Karl-Anthony Towns   66/1

Klay Thompson                       66/1

Ben Simmons              80/1

Jamal Murray              80/1

Zach Lavine                 80/1

Anthony Edwards                   100/1

Bam Adebayo             100/1

Domantas Sabonis                  100/1

Brandon Ingram                      125/1

LaMelo Ball                 125/1

Cj McCollum                150/1

DeMar DeRozan                      150/1

Tobias Harris               150/1

Christian Wood                       200/1

DeAaron Fox               200/1

Deandre Ayton                       200/1

Fred VanFleet             200/1

Nikola Vucevic            200/1

John Wall                    250/1

Jrue Holiday                250/1

Kristaps Porzingis        250/1

Kyle Lowry                  250/1

Malcolm Brogdan                   250/1

Michael Porter Jr.       250/1

Last year, Stefon Diggs was a 50/1 longshot to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Heading into the 2021 season, Diggs’ name is at the top of the list. 

SportsBetting  released its odds for league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards, which you can find below. 

Passing Yards Leader

Patrick Mahomes                    6/1

Josh Allen                    9/1

Tom Brady                  9/1

Dak Precott                 10/1

Justin Herbert             10/1

Matthew Stafford                   10/1

Aaron Rodgers            12/1

Matt Ryan                   12/1

Kirk Cousins                18/1

Ben Roethlisberger     20/1

Joe Burrow                  20/1

Russell Wilson             20/1

Baker Mayfield                        25/1

Derek Carr                   25/1

Deshaun Watson                    25/1

Kyler Murray               25/1

Lamar Jackson            25/1

Trevor Lawrence                     25/1

Ryan Tannehill            28/1

Jameis Winston                       33/1

Jared Goff                   33/1

Cam Newton               50/1

Carson Wentz             50/1

Drew Lock                   50/1

Sam Darnold               50/1

Tua Tagovailoa                        50/1

Zac Wilson                  50/1

Andy Dalton                66/1

Daniel Jones                66/1

Jimmy Garoppolo                   66/1

Ryan Fitzpatrick                      66/1

Jalen Hurts                  80/1

Justin Fields                100/1

Mac Jones                   100/1

Trey Lance                   100/1

Receiving Yards Leader

Stefon Diggs                8/1

Calvin Ridley               9/1

Tyreek Hill                   9/1

Davante Adams                      10/1

DeAndre Hopkins                    10/1

Travis Kelce                 11/1

AJ Brown                                 14/1

DK Metcalf                  14/1

Julio Jones                   14/1

Justin Jefferson                       14/1

Terry McLaurin                       14/1

Keenan Allen               16/1

Michael Thomas                     16/1

Allen Robinson                        20/1

Amari Cooper             20/1

Chris Godwin              20/1

DJ Moore                                20/1

Mike Evans                  20/1

Odell Beckham                        20/1

Adam Thielen              25/1

Tyler Lockett               25/1

Brandin Cooks             33/1

CeeDee Lamb              33/1

Kenny Golladay                       33/1

Ja’Marr Chase             40/1

Chase Claypool                       50/1

Courtland Sutton                    50/1

D.J. Chark Jr.               50/1

Diontae Johnson                     50/1

Robby Anderson                     50/1

Robert Woods             50/1

Antonio Brown                       66/1

Brandon Aiyuk            66/1

Cooper Kupp               66/1

DeVonta Smith                        66/1

Jarvis Landry               66/1

Jaylen Waddle            66/1

Jerry Jeudy                  66/1

JuJu Smith-Schuster    66/1

T.Y. Hilton                   66/1

Rushing Yards Leader

Derrick Henry              3/1

Dalvin Cook                 5/1

Nick Chubb                  7/1

Christian McCaffrey    8/1

Jonathan Taylor                      9/1

Saquon Barkley                       9/1

Cam Akers                   12/1

Ezekiel Elliott              12/1

Najee Harris                12/1

Joe Mixon                   16/1

Aaron Jones                20/1

Antonio Gibson                       25/1

Josh Jacobs                 25/1

Chris Carson                33/1

James Robinson                      33/1

Lamar Jackson            33/1

JK Dobbins                  40/1

Miles Sanders             40/1

Myles Gaskin               40/1

Alvin Kamara               50/1

Clyde Edwards-Helaire           50/1

David Montgomery                 50/1

Melvin Gordon                        50/1

The Men’s USA Basketball team has suffered back-to-back losses during international friendlies this week, but it is still the prohibitive favorite to walk away on top of the Summer Olympics.

SportsBetting  released gold medal odds for men’s basketball Tuesday, and the USA is a 1/6, or -600, favorite, meaning a bettor would have to wager $600 just to return $100.

Australia, which defeated the USA squad yesterday, is second on the board with 9/1 or +900 odds.

Nigeria, after beating Team USA as a 30-point underdog on Sunday, comes in with 33/1 odds.

The USA team is an 18.5-point favorite in their friendlies game against Argentina tonight.

Odds are subject to change and current numbers can be seen here: 

Olympics – Men’s Basketball

USA 1/6

Australia 9/1

Spain 10/1

France 20/1

Slovenia 20/1

Argentina 33/1

Nigeria 33/1

Italy 50/1

Czech Republic 80/1

Germany 80/1

Iran 500/1

Japan 500/1

Is Shohei Ohtani a lock for American League MVP? Can Jacob DeGrom double up and take home both MVP and Cy Young trophies?

SportsBetting  released its updated MLB player awards odds Tuesday, and you can find answers to the aforementioned questions below. 

Odds are subject to change 

AL MVP

Shohei Ohtani             -350

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.              +225

Xander Bogaerts                     +4000

Aaron Judge                +5000

Carlos Correa              +5000

Marcus Semien                       +5000

Matt Olson                  +5000

Rafael Devers              +5000

NL MVP                       

Jacob deGrom             +100

Fernando Tatis Jr.                   +110

Max Muncy                 +2000

Nicholas Castellanos               +2000

Trea Turner                 +3300

Bryce Harper               +5000

Jesse Winker               +5000

Kris Bryant                  +5000

Kyle Schwarber                       +5000

Nolan Arenado                        +5000

AL Cy Young    

Gerrit Cole                  -110

Carlos Rodon              +200

Lance Lynn                  +450

Shane Bieber               +2200

Chris Bassitt                +2800

Kyle Gibson                 +2800

Nathan Eovaldi                       +2800

Aaron Civale                +5000

John Means                 +5000

Lucas Giolito               +5000

Sean Manaea              +5000

NL Cy Young    

Jacob Degrom             -1000

Brandon Woodruff                 +1400

Kevin Gausman                       +1400

Zack Wheeler              +1400

Corbin Burnes             +2200

Yu Darvish                   +2200

Max Scherzer              +3300

Trevor Bauer               +3300

Walker Buehler                       +3300

Freddy Peralta            +4000

Clayton Kershaw                     +5000

Jack Flaherty               +5000

Joe Musgrove             +5000

Trevor Rogers             +5000

Josh Hader                  +6600

AL ROY 

Adolis Garcia               +275

Randy Arozarena                    +300

Emmanuel Clase                     +550

Nick Madrigal              +700

Yermin Mercedes                   +700

James Kaprelian                      +1400

Ryan Mountcastle                   +1400

Andrew Vaughn                      +1600

Garrett Crochet                      +1800

Michael Kopech                      +2000

Casey Mize                  +2500

NL ROY 

Trevor Rogers             +175

Ke’Bryan Hayes                       +500

Dylan Carlson              +600

Ian Anderson              +650

Jazz Chisholm              +750

Jonathan India            +750

Patrick Wisdom                      +750

Ha-Seong Kim             +1800

Tyler Stephenson                    +2000

There are some massive movements when comparing MLB odds from the start of the 2021 season to the current odds at the All-Star break.

SportsBetting  released its latest World Series, pennant and division odds this morning, which you can find below.

Defying preseason expectations, the Giants and Red Sox have seen the largest decrease in their title odds. The opposite has happened to preseason favorites such as the Yankees and Braves.

Here are the Top 5 notable movements: 

– Giants 100/1 to 12/1

– Red Sox 55/1 to 12/1

– Brewers 30/1 to 12/1

– Yankees 5/1 to 20/1

– Braves 10/1 to 35/1

World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers               +350

Houston Astros                       +650

Chicago White Sox                  +800

San Diego Padres                    +900

New York Mets                       +1000

Boston Red Sox                       +1200

Milwaukee Brewers                +1200

San Francisco Giants               +1200

Tampa Bay Rays                      +1200

New York Yankees                  +2000

Oakland Athletics                    +2200

Toronto Blue Jays                   +2500

Atlanta Braves            +3500

Cincinnati Reds                       +5000

Cleveland Indians                    +6000

Los Angeles Angels                 +6600

Philadelphia Phillies                +6600

Seattle Mariners                     +6600

St. Louis Cardinals                   +6600

Washington Nationals            +6600

Chicago Cubs              +8000

Miami Marlins            +25000

Minnesota Twins                    +30000

Detroit Tigers              +75000

Kansas City Royals                  +75000

Colorado Rockies                    +100000

Texas Rangers             +200000

Pittsburgh Pirates                   +300000

Baltimore Orioles                    +400000

Arizona Diamondbacks                       +500000

American League

Houston Astros                       +250

Chicago White Sox                  +350

Boston Red Sox                       +550

Tampa Bay Rays                      +600

New York Yankees                  +1000

Oakland Athletics                    +1100

Toronto Blue Jays                   +1200

Cleveland Indians                    +3300

Seattle Mariners                     +3300

Los Angeles Angels                 +3500

Minnesota Twins                    +15000

Detroit Tigers              +40000

Kansas City Royals                  +40000

Texas Rangers             +100000

Baltimore Orioles                    +200000

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers               +190

San Diego Padres                    +450

New York Mets                       +550

Milwaukee Brewers                +575

San Francisco Giants               +675

Atlanta Braves            +2000

Cincinnati Reds                       +2800

Philadelphia Phillies                +3500

St Louis Cardinals                    +3500

Washington Nationals            +3500

Chicago Cubs              +4500

Miami Marlins            +12500

Colorado Rockies                    +50000

Pittsburgh Pirates                   +150000

Arizona Diamondbacks                       +250000

AL East 

Boston Red Sox                       -110

Tampa Bay Rays                      +130

New York Yankees                  +1100

Toronto Blue Jays                   +1100

AL Central

Chicago White Sox                  -2500

Cleveland Indians                    +675

Minnesota Twins                    +6600

Detroit Tigers              +10000

Kansas City Royals                  +10000

AL West

Houston Astros                       -700

Oakland Athletics                    +450

Seattle Mariners                     +2200

Los Angeles Angels                 +3500

Texas Rangers             +200000

NL East 

New York Mets                       -210

Atlanta Braves            +450

Philadelphia Phillies                +650

Washington Nationals            +750

Miami Marlins            +5000

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers                -650

Cincinnati Reds                       +600

Chicago Cubs              +1600

St. Louis Cardinals                   +1600

Pittsburgh Pirates                   +150000

NL West          

Los Angeles Dodgers               -260

San Francisco Giants               +350

San Diego Padres                    +450

Colorado Rockies                    +200000

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Free pick:

HOUSTON (ODORIZZI -135) NY Yankees (Cortes) at Betonline, the home of the opening line 

The Yankees played yesterday in Seattle and make the trip to Houston, a team that last traveled on Independence Day. Nestor Cortes has nice numbers, but he is not pitching a lot of innings and his resume suggests regression is ready to come. My top model has Houston winning 72 percent of 10K simulations. AccuScore has Houston winning 63.5 percent. Jake Odorizzi has given up one run in his last four starts over 20 IP, allowing just 8 hits and walking four. 

he 2021 ESPYs ceremony takes place this Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, and the tight betting odds point toward some potential upsets.

SportsBetting  has set odds for a dozen ESPYs sports categories, which you can find below.

Half of the 12 categories don’t have an “odds-on favorite.” Best Female Athlete, Best College Male Athlete and Best Play are a few of the categories with very close odds at the top.

ESPYs odds are subject to change and current odds can be found here:

Best Game      

NCAA Men’s Final Four: Gonzaga vs UCLA                 -400

NFL Week 14: Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns                      +400

NCAA Women’s Basketball Final Stanford vs Arizona                        +450

NHL Playoff Game 4: Winnipeg vs Edmonton                        +750

Best Play

DK Metcalf Chasing Budda Baker                   +100

Kyler Murray Hail Mary                      +175

Jamil Roberts Goal                  +350

Simone Biles Vault                  +350

Best Record-Breaking Performance   

Phil Mickelson             -140

Russell Westbrook                  +275

DeVonta Smith                        +300

Tara VanDerveer                     +400

Best Team

Tampa Bay Buccaneers                       -140

Los Angeles Dodgers               +250

Alabama Crimson Tide                        +450

Baylor Bears                +800

Stanford Cardinal                    +1000

Oklahoma Sooners                 +1200

Seattle Storm              +1200

Best Female Athlete   

Naomi Osaka              +105

Simone Biles               +125

Amanda Nunes                       +325

Breanna Stewart                     +650

Best Female College Athlete   

Odicci Alexander                     +115

Oaige Bueckers                       +130

JAelin Howell              +375

Madison Lilley             +425

Best Male Athlete       

Tom Brady                  -600

Nikola Jokic                 +375

Connor McDavid                     +700

Lewis Hamilton                       +800

Best Male College Athlete      

Trevor Lawrence                     -130

DeVonta Smith                        +150

Luka Garza                  +350

Gloire Amanda                        +750

Best Breakthrough Athlete     

LaMelo Ball                 -150

Justin Herbert             +160

Chase Young               +375

Crystal Dangerfield                 +800

Best MMA Fighter       

Francis Ngannou                     +135

Khabib Nurmagomedov                     +155

Amanda Nunes                       +300

Rose Namajunas                     +325

Best Boxer

Canelo Alvarez            -175

Tyson Fury                  +275

Claressa Shields                      +400

Teofimo Lopez            +400

Best WWE Moment    

Edge                -200

Bianca Belair Royal Rumble                +180

Bianca Belair vs Sasha Banks              +500

Bad Bunny and Damian Priest WrestleMania            +750