I am tearing your bookie to shreds frankly! Last night, I nailed Denver UNDER as NBA TV Bet of the Year. Not the Game or Total of the Year, but the Bet of the Year and it was easy on the heels of NCAA Tournament GOY winner. Gonzaga a Wise Guy in a rout too.
Just lately, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is 21-10. Seven NBA winners led by two Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Get the picks now
NBA
BOSTON -1 Dallas
Dallas is 13-11 SU on the road, a notch better than their home record. Go against teams better on road now on road are 142-86-7. BetLabs system that measures tickets vs. money plus line moves favors Boston in a sharp versus square situation that is 406-324-5. NumberFire has Boston with 56.3 percent chance. J.J. Reddick likely out for Dallas. Even if he plays, expect small step back before taking two steps forward as he integrates into team.
Gonzaga will be a historic favorite when they tip off against UCLA in their Final Four matchup on Saturday.
The Zags have won every NCAA Tournament game by at least 16 points, which is a reason why oddsmakers have made them the largest favorite in Final Four history with a spread of -13.5 at SportsBetting
UCLA vs. Gonzaga (-13.5, 146)
Here are the prior three largest spreads in Final Four history (since 1985):
1999 – Duke (-11) vs. Michigan State 2013 – Louisville (-10) vs. Wichita State 2016 – North Carolina (-9.5) vs. Syracuse
(Odds and information provided by Colorado-based online sportsbook SportsBetting)
Gonzaga is also the odds-on favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Here are the championship odds heading into the Final Four:
In the all-Texas Final Four matchup, Baylor is a slight favorite over Houston.
Houston vs. Baylor (-4.5, 135.5)
Joe Duffy at OffshoreInsiders.com is destroying the books at 21-10 lately and 33 years of winning for you publicly. OffshoreInsiders.com is where to go for vetted sportsbooks and proven cappers.
Many other angles, some that would overlap, apply here. Many contain angry away favorites off a loss and/or fat and happy home underdogs off win. This has both.
Now some super sharp intel from NBA line moves, public betting patterns, contrarian betting data, where money is being bet, ATS trends, and more.
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Toronto, Indiana
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: LA Clippers, Toronto
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Boston -4.5 down to -2.5
Joe Duffy has hit 8-of-9 NBA and 11-5 overall. NCAA Tournament Game of the Year among two Big Dance winners. Eight NBA led by four Wise Guys. Yep, all the indicators point to one side in the Big Dance. Mr. March sweeps tonight. Get the picks now
NBA free pick from Joe Duffy on:
MEMPHIS -8 Houston
Many other angles, some that would overlap, apply here. Many contain angry away favorites off a loss and/or fat and happy home underdogs off win. This has both.
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Toronto, Indiana
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: LA Clippers, Toronto
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Boston -4.5 down to -2.5
This is what you get every day. Every day on Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com Baseball is just around the corner, so lock in long-term now. I’m not promising we go 9-2 every day. But I will say this is the what the best intel in the business looks like and why I have so many clients who have been with me for decades, several going back to 1988.
Wise Guy
HOUSTON -6 Syracuse
KenPom has this an eight-point win. Houston is stronger on both sides of the ball. They are great at getting second chance points and even if Orange zone causes some bad shots, Houston will clean up the boards. But they also move the ball very well and will get nice looks. Kelvin Sampson has a week to made adjustments and beat that zone. Buddy Boeheim will have a lot of athletes in his face and will likely have the worst game of the tournament for him.
Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has Houston as an excellent contrarian bet.
Major
ORAL ROBERTS +11 Arkansas
Accuscore has Oral covering 57.3 percent of the time. NumberFire has Bobs cashing the ticket 60.2. Oral stayed with Arkansas for most of the game when they previously met. The Backs pulled away at the end, but Oral is a much better team and clearly with confidence and knowledge they can hang for 40 minutes.
BAYLOR -7.5 Villanova
NumberFire has Baylor covering a stunning 64.2 percent. This is a huge stepup in class for Wildcats. They had great defensive numbers but Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague is a much better group of guards. Without injured point guard Collin Gillespie, Baylor will win by double-digits. Nova does not have a lot of steals and need to do that to have a chance.
Villanova-Baylor OVER 141.5
Sportsline model has this game going over 79 percent of the time. NumberFire has 60.5 percent going over. KenPom has 150 points scored.
NBA
Wise Guy
Philadelphia-LA Clippers OVER 223.5
Total compared to recent posted totals goes over 2292-1909-81 including 472-297-26 since 2015 and 43-13-1 this season.
Milwaukee-New York UNDER 222.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 879-587-40. When both apply, it goes under 532-313-18. Going back further, it goes under 738-469-26.
Sacramento-Cleveland UNDER 221.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 879-587-40. When both apply, it goes under 532-313-18. Going back further, it goes under 738-469-26.
Major
Minnesota-Houston OVER 227.5
Math total based on offensive numbers of each team is 409-279-25. The percentage is slightly higher if the total is not obnoxiously high, such as here.
San Antonio-Chicago OVER 223.5
Two cumulative under teams tend to go over at 811-589-27.
Boston-Oklahoma City UNDER 219.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76.
BOSTON -9 Oklahoma City
Scorephone clients will recall that angle that has to do with teams off a loss under certain situations that we have won with literally since our debut in 1988. It works regular and postseason and applies here. Many other angles, some that would overlap, apply here.
The Grandmaster has six NBA winners led by a Wise Guy backed a staggering stat that is 2292-1908-81. This includes 472-296-26 since 2015 and 43-12-1 this season. If you are not exploiting artificial intelligence to crush the books, then you are simply keeping bookies in business for those pros like us who are. You’ve chosen your side! Get the picks now
Free
UTAH -9.5 Memphis
Memphis is playing well winning three straight all by eight or more, yet a big dog. Fading big and hot underdogs is 282-185-9 under specific situations that apply in this game. Memphis 10-7 SU on road, yet 11-13 SU at home. This does not hold up. Go against teams better on road now on road is 140-85-7.
Sportsline model has us covering 58 percent of time. NBC SportsEdge gives us a nice advantage too.
The NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and there were more than a few impactful trades executed.
Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Norman Powell, Rajon Rondo, Evan Fournier and George Hill are seven of the most notable players dealt on Thursday.
Whether or not these new additions will lead to a championship remains unseen, but here’s how the oddsmakers adjusted their numbers following the trades (full list of before-and-after odds below).
Nuggets (Gordon trade) Championship Odds – 25/1 before to 20/1 after Western Odds – 12/1 before to 9/1 after
Bulls (Vucevic trade) Championship Odds – 250/1 before to 150/1 after Eastern Odds – 200/1 before to 80/1 after
Heat (Oladipo trade) Championship Odds – 35/1 before to 30/1 after Eastern Odds – 14/1 before to 12/1 after
Trail Blazers (Powell trade) Championship Odds – 66/1 before to 50/1 after Western Odds – 28/1 before to 25/1 after
Clippers (Rondo trade) Championship Odds – No change Western Odds – 3/1 before to 5/2 after
Celtics (Fornier trade) Championship Odds – 28/1 before to 30/1 after Eastern Odds – No change
76ers (Hill trade) Championship Odds – No change Eastern Odds – No change
———————————-
NBA Championship (before deadline) Brooklyn Nets 5/2 Los Angeles Lakers 3/1 Los Angeles Clippers 5/1 Utah Jazz 8/1 Milwaukee Bucks 8/1 Philadelphia 76ers 12/1 Denver Nuggets 25/1 Boston Celtics 28/1 Phoenix Suns 28/1 Miami Heat 35/1 Dallas Mavericks 50/1 Indiana Pacers 66/1 Portland Trail Blazers 66/1 Toronto Raptors 66/1 Atlanta Hawks 100/1 Golden State Warriors 100/1 San Antonio Spurs 125/1 New York Knicks 150/1 New Orleans Pelicans 175/1 Memphis Grizzlies 200/1 Charlotte Hornets 250/1 Chicago Bulls 250/1 Washington Wizards 300/1 Sacramento Kings 500/1 Orlando Magic 750/1 Cleveland Cavaliers 1000/1 Houston Rockets 1000/1 Oklahoma City Thunder 1500/1 Detroit Pistons 2000/1 Minnesota Timberwolves 2000/1
Eastern Conference (before deadline) Brooklyn Nets 1/1 Milwaukee Bucks 7/2 Philadelphia 76ers 5/1 Boston Celtics 14/1 Miami Heat 14/1 Toronto Raptors 22/1 Indiana Pacers 28/1 Atlanta Hawks 50/1 New York Knicks 80/1 Charlotte Hornets 100/1 Washington Wizards 150/1 Chicago Bulls 200/1 Cleveland Cavaliers 500/1 Orlando Magic 750/1 Detroit Pistons 1000/1
Western Conference (before deadline) Los Angeles Lakers 3/2 Los Angeles Clippers 3/1 Utah Jazz 7/2 Denver Nuggets 12/1 Phoenix Suns 14/1 Dallas Mavericks 25/1 Portland Trail Blazers 28/1 San Antonio Spurs 66/1 Golden State Warriors 70/1 Memphis Grizzlies 100/1 New Orleans Pelicans 100/1 Sacramento Kings 300/1 Houston Rockets 500/1 Oklahoma City Thunder 750/1 Minnesota Timberwolves 1000/1
Best sports betting picks are found at OffshoreInsiders.com, which traces its roots to scorephone days. Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.
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Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is off 3-2 and explodes tonight TNT Late Night Total of the Year among five winners. Four are totals, plus a side. Anyone who gives a you-know-what about sustained profit is already a client of ours. For those who just want to know about hot streaks, we have that also. Get the picks now
Free pick from Joe Duffy
PHILADELPHIA -5.5 LA Lakers
Angle that uses advanced metrics and spread to isolate off lines and says to fade overvalued home teams is 393-213-11. Yep, Lakers two best players are out and Sixers top player is out. That is factored in. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 533-397. A sub-system takes it a little higher.
Accuscore has Sixers covering 57.7 percent. TeamRankings gives us a modest edge.
Yeah, one of the great totals systems actually lost last night. But that means time to jump on board long term and ride this and so many great metrics. Five winners led by Wise Guy. The Wise Guy is led by that magical system that is 2292-1908-81. This includes 472-296-26 since 2015 and 43-12-1 this season, a brutal loss last night notwithstanding. When both apply, it is 475-299-21 progressively getting better since 2017. Get the picks now
TORONTO +3 Denver
At 14-8 SU, Denver is better SU on that road than at home. But fading such road teams under specific situations that apply in this game is 139-85-7. Teams on long losing streaks are good bets. When a team with a significantly inferior record is not a big underdog, go with the oddsmakers are telling you and bet on inferior team at 224-118-5. NumberFire has us covering 58.6 percent of the time.
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