All posts by Joe Duffy

Odds and Probability of Each Team Making Postseason

The 2021 MLB season is just over three weeks away so it’s time to take a look at which teams the number-crunchers are projecting to be contenders and pretenders. 

SportsBetting has set Yes/No postseason odds for all 30 MLB clubs. The Yankees top the board with the highest probability to advance to the playoffs while the Pirates come in with the worst chances. 

Odds and implied probabilities are included for every team below. Odds are provided by Colorado-based SportsBetting and current numbers can be found here:  

MLB Postseason Odds

Dodgers: Yes -2000 | No +1000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 95.2%

Yankees: Yes -1200 | No +650 | Implied probability of making postseason is 92.3%

Padres: Yes -600 | No +400 | Implied probability of making postseason is 85.7%

Braves: Yes -295 | No +230 | Implied probability of making postseason is 74.7%

White Sox: Yes -275 | No +220 | Implied probability of making postseason is 73.3%

Mets: Yes -240 | No +190 | Implied probability of making postseason is 70.6%

Twins: Yes -155 | No +125 | Implied probability of making postseason is 60.8%

Astros: Yes -130 | No +100 | Implied probability of making postseason is 56.5%

Athletics: -130 | No +100 | Implied probability of making postseason is 56.5%

Cardinals: Yes -130 | No +100 | Implied probability of making postseason is 56.5%

Blue Jays: Yes -130 | No +100 | Implied probability of making postseason is 56.5%

Rays: Yes +120 | No -150 | Implied probability of making postseason is 45.5%

Nationals: Yes +145 | No -175 | Implied probability of making postseason is 40.8%

Reds: Yes +155 | No -190 | Implied probability of making postseason is 39.2%

Brewers: Yes +160 | No -185 | Implied probability of making postseason is 38.5%

Angels: Yes +170 | No -210 | Implied probability of making postseason is 37.0%

Indians: Yes +250 | No -325 | Implied probability of making postseason is 28.6%

Red Sox: Yes +275 | No -345 | Implied probability of making postseason is 26.7%

Cubs: Yes +300 | No -400 | Implied probability of making postseason is 25.0%

Phillies: Yes +300 | No -400 | Implied probability of making postseason is 25.0%

Giants: Yes +800 | No -1600 | Implied probability of making postseason is 11.1%

Mariners: Yes +1000 | No -2000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 9.1%

Diamondbacks: Yes +1000 | No -2000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 9.1%

Royals: Yes +1000 | No -2000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 9.1%

Rangers: Yes +1000 | No -2000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 9.1%

Marlins: Yes +1200 | No -2500 | Implied probability of making postseason is 7.7%

Tigers: Yes +1400 | No -3300 | Implied probability of making postseason is 6.7%

Orioles: Yes +1800 | No -5000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 5.3%

Rockies: Yes +1800 | No -5000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 5.3%

Pirates: Yes +2000 | No -10000 | Implied probability of making postseason is 4.8%

Free Monday CBB Winner

Bombshell on steroids. Joe Duffy has a Wise Guy among two college basketball night winners. The Wise Guy is 9 ET or later. Why? Many simulators and very sharp action all pointing to the same side!  Get the picks now 

NORTHERN KENTUCKY -1.5 Oakland 

My top model has North Kentucky covering 70 percent. Haslam has Northern Kentucky as about 3.5 favorite. MasseyRatings has NKU winning by three, so slight edge. EDJS has NKU covering the two 52 percent of times, but Oakland just 44 with the rest pushes. At 1.5 even better. 

Conference Tournament Odds Men’s Basketball 2021 Released

Bovada has odds to win Mountain West, Big East, Pac-12, AAC, and every conference. OffshoreInsiders.comwill have the spread winners. 

Mountain West Conference

3/10/21

2:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

San Diego State EVEN

Utah State +260

Boise State +375

Colorado State +400

Nevada +1800

UNLV +4000

Wyoming +6000

Fresno State +10000

New Mexico  +30000

San Jose State +30000

Air Force  +50000

Big East Conference

3/10/21

3:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

Villanova +275

Creighton +175

Connecticut +190

Xavier +450

St. John’s +1800

Providence +3000

Marquette +5500

Georgetown +6000

Butler +5000

DePaul  +30000

PAC-12 Conference

3/10/21

4:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

USC +185

UCLA +500

Colorado +210

Oregon +265

Stanford +1500

Arizona State +2000

Utah U +3000

Washington State +6600

Oregon State +5500

California +20000

Washington +20000

Southeastern Conference

3/10/21

7:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

Alabama +230

Tennessee +450

Missouri +900

Arkansas +290

LSU +700

Kentucky +700

Florida +700

Mississippi +2200

Mississippi State +6000

South Carolina +17500

Vanderbilt +25000

Georgia +10000

Texas A&M +25000

American Athletic Conference

3/11/21

12:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

Houston -175

SMU +650

Memphis +400

Wichita State +300

South Florida +5500

Tulsa +7500

Cincinnati +5500

Central Florida +6000

East Carolina  +20000

Temple +20000

Tulane +20000

Horizon League Conference

3/8/21

6:30 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

Cleveland State +110

Northern Kentucky +180

Oakland  +450

Wisconsin Milwaukee +450

West Coast Conference

3/8/21

9:00 PM

Winner

BYU +500

Gonzaga -3000

Pepperdine  +5000

Saint Mary’s (CA) +1800

Atlantic Coast Conference

3/9/21

2:00 PM

Conference Tournament Winner

Florida State +225

Virginia +245

North Carolina +450

Louisville +700

Virginia Tech +700

Georgia Tech +1000

Duke +1600

Clemson +2000

Syracuse +5000

Pittsburgh  +6600

Notre Dame  +7500

NC State +8000

Miami (FL) +20000

Boston College +25000

Wake Forest +25000

2021 March madness Odds: Favorites, Long Shots, Dark horses to Win ACC Tournament

Bovada has posted odds to get an automatic bid to the Big Dance 2021. FSU edges out Virginia as the favorites. Will Duke make a miracle run? They are 16-1. GA Tech is peaking at the right time and is 10-1 to win it. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1.  OffshoreInsiders.com will have the game-by-game winners. 

ACC Conference Tournament Winner

Florida State +225

Virginia +245

North Carolina +450

Louisville +700

Virginia Tech +700

Georgia Tech +1000

Duke +1600

Clemson +2000

Syracuse +5000

Pittsburgh  +6600

Notre Dame  +7500

NC State +8000

Miami (FL) +20000

Boston College +25000

Wake Forest +25000

New NBA MVP Fave! odds of Every Team to Make Playoffs, ROY, DPOY Too

LeBron James didn’t log many minutes in the All-Star Game, and Joel Embiid didn’t even get to play. But the latter recently dethroned the King in the latest MVP odds.

At the halfway point of the season, SportsBetting released updated probabilities to make the NBA Playoffs for all 30 teams, as well as the latest odds for MVP, ROY, DPOY and Sixth Man.

After a two-week run at the top of the MVP odds board, James was supplanted by Embiid last week.

LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert and Jordan Clarkson continue to be the odds-on favorites for Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. 

In terms of playoff numbers, only the Hornets and Wizards have seen their odds flipped, meaning they were favored to make the playoffs before the season started and now aren’t, or vice versa.

All odds are provided by SportsBetting 


NBA Playoffs 


Atlanta Hawks To Make Playoffs
Yes -130, No +100
(Odds imply a 56.5% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 54.6% chance.)


Boston Celtics To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes -2500, No +1200
(Odds imply a 96.2% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 93.6% chance.)


Brooklyn Nets To Make Playoffs
No +1500


Charlotte Hornets To Make Playoffs
Yes -200, No +160
(Odds imply a 66.7% chance team will make playoffs. Odds have flipped after started season with an 83.3% chance they wouldn’t make playoffs.)


Chicago Bulls To Make Playoffs
Yes +275, No -345
(Odds imply a 77.5% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with an 80.0% chance.)


Cleveland Cavaliers To Make Playoffs
Yes +2000


Dallas Mavericks To Make Playoffs
Yes -345, No +275
(Odds imply a 77.5% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with an 87.7% chance.)


Denver Nuggets To Make Playoffs
Yes -1660, No +800
(Odds imply a 94.3% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 90.9% chance.)


Detroit Pistons To Make Playoffs
Yes +2500


Golden State Warriors To Make Playoffs
Yes -115, No -115
(Odds imply a 50.0% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 66.7% chance they would make playoffs.)


Houston Rockets To Make Playoffs
Yes +1200


Indiana Pacers To Make Playoffs
Yes -200, No +160
(Odds imply a 66.7% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 63.0% chance.)


Los Angeles Clippers To Make Playoffs
No +1000


Los Angeles Lakers To Make Playoffs
No +1500


Memphis Grizzlies To Make Playoffs
Yes +190, No -240
(Odds imply a 70.6% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 66.7% chance.)


Miami Heat To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes -1250, No +650
(Odds imply a 92.6% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 92.6% chance.)


Milwaukee Bucks To Make Playoffs
No +1200


Minnesota Timberwolves To Make Playoffs
Yes +2500


New Orleans Pelicans To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes +220, No -275
(Odds imply a 73.3% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 65.5% chance.)


New York Knicks To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes +120, No -150
(Odds imply a 97.1% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a chance.)


Oklahoma City Thunder To Make Playoffs
Yes +1000


Orlando Magic To Make Playoffs
Yes +1200, No -2500
(Odds imply a 96.2% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 66.7% chance.)


Philadelphia 76ers To Make Playoffs
No +1500


Phoenix Suns To Make Playoffs
No +1200


Portland Trail Blazers To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes -285, No +225
(Odds imply a 74.0% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 64.3% chance.)


Sacramento Kings To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes +700, No -1250
(Odds imply a 92.6% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 88.5% chance.)


San Antonio Spurs To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes -110, No -120
(Odds imply a 54.6% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 85.5% chance the wouldn’t make playoffs.)


Toronto Raptors To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes -450, No +325
(Odds imply a 81.8% chance team will make playoffs. Started season with a 90.1% chance.)


Utah To Make Playoffs
No +2000


Washington Wizards To Make Playoffs
Make Playoffs: Yes +220, No -275
(Odds imply a 73.3% chance team won’t make playoffs. Started season with a 54.6% chance they would make playoffs.)


Player Awards 
(current odds: https://co.sportsbetting.com/competition/1822/basketball)

MVP
Joel Embiid +190
LeBron James +210
Nikola Jokic +375
Luka Doncic +1200
James Harden +1200
Damian Lillard +1400
Stephen Curry +1800
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1800
Kawhi Leonard +3300
Donovan Mitchell +4000
Jamal Murray +25000

ROY 
LaMelo Ball -715
Tyrese Haliburton +500
Anthony Edwards +1200
Immanuel Quickley +2000
James Wiseman +2800
Xavier Tillman +2800
Jae’Sean Tate +5000
Patrick Williams +5000
Tyrese Maxey +5000
Saddiq Bey +6600

DPOY 
Rudy Gobert -175
Ben Simmons +210
Myles Turner +575
Joel Embiid +1200
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1800
Anthony Davis +2500
Draymond Green +6600
Bam Adebayo +8000

Sixth Man 
Jordan Clarkson -400
Eric Gordon +1100
Terrence Ross +1600
Chris Boucher +1600
Montrezl Harrell +1800
Thaddeus Young +1800
Tyrese Haliburton +2000
Carmelo Anthony +2200
Goran Dragic +2500
Patty Mills +2500
Tyler Herro +2500
Shake Milton +2800
Lou Williams +5000
Brandon Clarke +6600

Best sports betting picks are found at OffshoreInsiders.com, which traces its roots to scorephone days. Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.

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Free College Basketball Lock

Free pick from Joe Duffy: 

UTAH VALLEY +9 Grand Canyon

College basketball is a momentum sport and Utah Valley is getting big points having won two straight, while GC has lost two-of-three. It is senior night for GC and they are loaded with seniors. But such teams generally do well early, get a bit overvalued and are fades late. After an 10-1 ATS start, they have lost 2-of-3 to number. 

Utah Valley’s pick and roll with Jamison Overton and Trey Woodbury will give troubles to GCU smallish backcourt with Oscar Frayer banged up. Grand Canyon’s Asbjorn Midtgaard has had a ton of success dominating smaller centers. Tonight, he is matched up against Fardaws Aimaq who can match up physically. 

With postponements, UVU has played tougher strength of schedule. Accusports has us covering 58.4 percent. Sportsline has UVU covering 55 percent. TeamRankings slight edge. MasseyRatings says line should be -7.5. Hasalam Metric has it an eight-point game, so modest edge. 

Top expert pick from MasterLockLine: The only slump of the entire season is gone! The greatest NCAAB season ever recorded by any source, any time, any place is volcanic. For the season, power of 600-plus is 226-151 excluding pushes.

Service out of San Diego is the No. 1 handicapper west of Mississippi, which includes every Las Vegas based handicapper. College Basketball Game of the Year goes at 9 ET!

All-time No. 1 college basketball service far and away based on units won, releases almost all plays as one-unit, but does also have even more powerful 1.5-units bets. All bets are regular unless 1.5 specified. Up 38.3 units based on one unit per bet, go over 40 units with two sides with 2 ET and 8 ET side

Top NHL and CFL handicapper is not shockingly out of Great White North. They have never had a losing season in CFL or NHL. NHL Lock of the Month. Get a free sports service bet, which also has the full menu, then Get the picks now    

NBA Free Play

The Grandmaster, Joe Duffy has Five NBA winners led by two Wise Guys for night winners. Get the picks now 

ATLANA -3 Orlando 

Road favorites off of a win that broke a losing streak are 449-317-15. So Hawks have combo of some momentum, but still enough anger. Second game since firing Lloyd Pierce and from a handicapping standpoint, an underachieving team, firing a coach in the middle of the year almost always works short-term. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic back for Hawks after missing a bunch of games with knee injury. Still though without Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter. Clint Capela GTD. Orlando’s Evan Fournier is questionable.  Fournier is averaging 20.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.1 steals in 30.6 minutes over the past seven contests. 

We exploit various simulators. Accuscore has Atlanta cashing the ticket 60.7 percent. Sportsline has Atlanta covering 59 percent. TeamRankings says line is perfect but NumberFire gives edge to Magic. 

Free Sports Pick, Top College Basket Teams to Bet on Over-Under

Free NBA winner from Joe Duffy:

NEW YORK +2.5 San Antonio

Though we lost two very close bets (most of you won with Charlotte OVER as we released with just one book up), we also great a break when Spurs went into OT and put the game over the total. It also opens up a nice situation. Fading unrested teams off an OT game is 242-172-7. When we are betting the road team and said team is not playing back-to-back games it covers at 69 percent. Accuscore has New York covering 57.8 percent of simulations. Sportsline gives us a mild edge at 52 percent. NumberFire has our chances at 54.1. EdgePlus has a medium bet on New York. TeamRankings says the number is about right, but bottom line is no simulators tell us to go with Spurs. 

Top over-under teams in college basketball based on margin of over/under at least 15 lines games. Top OVER teams:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
St. Francis (NY)12-7+9.4
Robert Morris 11-6+9.4
Oakland 21-6+9.4
Southern Utah 11-4+9.3
Florida State 11-5-2+8.1
Wyoming 13-7-1+8.1
From OffshoreInsiders.com

 Top UNDER teams:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Portland State4-11-10
Idaho State 4-12-8.9
Florida A&M6-11-7.2
St. Bonaventure4-13-6.9
St. Pete’s7-14-6.8
DePaul 3-13-6.7
From OffshoreInsiders.com

 We release plays before lines are widely available so you can shop around for the best lines. Often that costs us when we count records based on the line quoted, often available at very few books at the time. Most of you had Charlotte OVER as a winner, but we count it as a loser in our 94-69 run.

Wise Guy, the NBA Total of the Month among two winners in NBA. Get the picks now Check OffshoreInsiders.com for possible college releases! 

Free Pick NBA Monday; Top NBA Teams to Bet On and Bet Against

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has six NBA winners led by two Wise Guys fresh off a winning day in the NBA again! I am 89-67 in basketball and I have hit 4-of-5 Wise Guy plays. I added a college basketball side for night winning! Get the picks now 

Free winner:

HOUSTON -2.5 Cleveland

Cleveland has won three straight all as underdogs. Houston lost 11 in a row! Go against teams on a straight up winning streak against teams on a straight up losing streak under certain circumstances is 515-371-13. When teams are in reverse streaks adding to 10 or greater, the ice-cold home favorite of two or more is 51-28-3. NumberFire has Houston covering 62.4 percent, TeamRankings with a slight edge at 52.1. 

Best college basketball teams to bet on or against, with at least 15 lined games. 

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
Morehead State17-8+6.6
UC Riverside 10-7-1+6.1
Toledo19-6+5.7
VMI13-6-1+5.6
Wright State12-11+5.2
Weber State14-4+5.2

Best teams to bet against based on said criterion.

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
No. Illinois 3-13-1-8.6
Florida International 5-15-1-6.5
Miss Valley State 7-14-5.7
New Mexico6-12-5.5
Boston U7-9-5.4

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.