Oh what a day! Interconference Total of the Year among two NBA Wise Guys, plus five NBA Majors. Named plays have hit 56 percent or higher in all sports, every calendar year. Get the picks now
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PHILADELPHIA -7 Minnesota
Road teams playing a bad team and in a bad stretch of defensive efforts are undervalued 132-82-1. Fade big home dogs if not off a low scoring game and with a substantial amount of rest and neither team has an extreme winning percentage is 520-364-27.
Big bet tonight. NBA Interconference Game of the Month is among three NBA, two Wise Guys. I should not give away too much, but let’s just say those of my clients who have been with me since the 1980s have won with this angle for more than 30 years straight and, yes as if you needed an “and” it is also backed by a newly acquired angle. It’s big.
College basketball is heating up big time for us. College basketball side as well to make it 4-0. Get the picks now
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LA Lakers-Detroit UNDER 214.5
This is indicative of the executive decisions required by your Grandmaster Handicapper. So many of our systems are counterintuitive and use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Many massive syndicates are using very similar systems as us.
Because a half-point variance in the saved system and half-point discrepancy in which books are software are tied into can trigger a bet, yes sometimes a line move can in fact trigger an alert where we wind up chasing steam.
If you don’t completely follow, that’s okay. That is why pros pay me to track it. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1493-1140-51. A total based on recent form compared to the total goes under 739-456-34.
One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 62 percent with 209 points expected. But our other model says the steam decreased the probability of under by about seven percent. This is why it falls just short of a premium bet. Chasing steam has pitfalls.
I bet at Bovada
Joe Duffy sweeps last night with LSU and Knicks UNDER. Tonight is even bigger. Four NBA winners led by three Wise Guys, topped by Western Conference Interdivisional Total of the Year. Get the picks now
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BROOKLYN -6.5 Atlanta
Brooklyn is 2-4 SU road, while Atlanta 5-3 SU home, yet Nets a huge away favorite. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road favorite with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 524-391-22.
Big away favorites versus opponent off win is 487-335-16. Big favorites in same season revenge are 835-693-41 including 60 percent since 2013. Road teams more rested are 387-305-9. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving starting to gel a bit.
Joe Duffy sweeps last night with LSU and Knicks UNDER. Tonight is even bigger. Four NBA winners led by three Wise Guys, topped by Western Conference Interdivisional Total of the Year. Get the picks now
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MIAMI FLORIDA +11 Florida State
Miami matches up very well defensively as they defend the pick and roll and the rim competently, so a blowout is unlikely.
Betting on some regression as FSU has been shooting the lights out over their last four ranging from 48 percent to 70 percent, while Miami shooting just 39 percent their last two. The three-point difference even bigger. But that short-term difference has this line bloated.
It doesn’t sound like Matthew Stafford will be around for the Dan Campbell era in Detroit.
The relationship between Stafford and the Lions’ brass appears too fractured to recover, especially after the team did not retain offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, so let’s take a look at where the odds project the quarterback landing.
SportsBetting an online sportsbook only available in Colorado, has (possibly optimistically) made the Broncos the favorites in the Stafford sweepstakes.
It’s interesting to see the Cowboys in the top 5 in terms of odds. Stafford grew up north of Dallas with good friend Clayton Kershaw…could he be returning to his roots?
Below are the opening odds for Stafford’s next team and you can find current ones here:
Matthew Stafford next team
Denver Broncos 3/1
Indianapolis Colts 4/1
Washington Football Team 5/1
Chicago Bears 6/1
Dallas Cowboys 8/1
New England Patriots 9/1
Carolina Panthers 10/1
New York Jets 10/1
Los Angeles Rams 12/1
Las Vegas Raiders 12/1
Houston Texans 12/1
Miami Dolphins 12/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
San Francisco 49ers 20/1
Philadelphia Eagles 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 30/1
Minnesota Vikings 30/1
New York Giants 30/1
Tennessee Titans 50/1
Cleveland Browns 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals 125/1
Baltimore Ravens 150/1
Los Angeles Chargers 150/1
Buffalo Bills 200/1
Seattle Seahawks 200/1
Kansas City Chiefs 300/1
I told you in December why the best was ahead of us. And it’s been promises made, promises delivered ever since. Off an 11-3 weekend, 10-2 in hoops. Seven NBA winners led by three Wise Guys continues the winning. Under teams become over bets. That applies twice today, though none apply to our Wise Guys, so it is common, yet not our strongest intel tonight. Get the picks now
Free winner:
BOSTON -4 Chicago
Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 361-232-12. Road favorites off of a win that broke a losing streak 440-316-15.
Best NBA teams to bet on based on ATS margin:
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Chicago | 11-5 | +4.1 |
| New York | 9-9 | +3.7 |
| Lakers | 10-7 | +2.8 |
Best NBA teams to bet against based on ATS margin:
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Sacramento | 6-10 | -6.2 |
| Orlando | 8-9 | -4 |
| Miami | 6-8-1 | -3.9 |
| Portland | 6-9 | -3.9 |
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
We win! TNT Interconference Total of the Year wins on Milwaukee-Lakers UNDER was easy. Five winners in the NBA led by Southwest Divisional Total of the Year. Three are Wise Guys.
Looking for a great capper? Taking people behind the scenes of all the work that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks has convinced a few more to become sharp bettors. Are you ready? Get the picks now
Free pick:
ATLANTA -6 Minnesota
Road favorites or small underdogs on a high scoring streak is 359-231-12 as Atlanta has topped 106 in three straight. Road favorites versus teams off home win or very close loss are 588-463-24. Our top-rated simulator program has them covering 67 percent of time, winning by 12. Our second best model has them covering 55.8 percent, winning by nine. MasseyRatings gives a mild edge to Atlanta.
This one is big. Really big. The TNT Interconference Total of the Year is among two NBA winners. Not only a math total, but a stunning 73 percent angle corroborates it and rarely applies. Get the 2-0 sweep from Joe Duffy. Get the picks now
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Utah-New Orleans OVER 216.5
Utah has been a big under team, going under 9-5 by -4.9 points per game. Though New Orleans has gone over 7-6, the margin is -2.9. Two cumulative under teams tend to go over 775-569-25. We almost made it a premium play. However a math total that had to do with performance over the last 10 games pointed towards the under. But the the two went head-to-head, it went over 11-6, a very good winning percentage but a small enough sample size to keep it below premium bet, but still with a lot of intel behind it. Our number two simulator has this going over 58.1 percent of the time. Another has it going over 57 percent of simulations.
Best college basketball teams to bet on this season in terms of ATS margin.
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Colgate | 4-2 | +13.8 |
| Drake | 11-0 | +12.5 |
| UC Riverside | 6-2-1 | +9.5 |
| Missouri State | 7-1 | +8.5 |
Best teams to bet against based on ats margin
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Boston U | 0-6 | -15.4 |
| McNeese State | 1-6-1 | -11 |
| Duke | 1-8 | -10.1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-4 | -9.2 |
| Northern Illinois | 2-10 | -8.6 |
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Bet Now college basketball odds which include added rotation games, big and small colleges. Bet Now is among the elite and approved sportsbooks now offering a 100 percent sign-up bonus, with easy deposits and easy cash out.
The same administration remains in power here, but with more systems than ever. NBA Wise Guy among five NBA winners. Two are sides, three totals. This is the scary good intel that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks. Get the picks now
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ORLANDO -3.5 Minnesota
Road team off three straight road losses 324-245-18. Away favorites off loss under specific situations that apply in this game 825-654-23. This includes a subsystem of 784-612-22. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 67 percent, winning by 10.
Odds for 2021 Heisman Trophy winner are posted. Oklahoma QBs have both won their recent share of trophies in addition to making it as a finalist. Sooners signal caller Spencer Rattler leads the way at less than 3-1. The starting QB for Alabama is pretty much automatically considered among the favorites and the presumed starter Bryce Young is next on the list according to Bovada
Spencer Rattler +285
Bryce Young +375
Sam Howell +700
D’Eriq King +1200
JT Daniels +1200
Jayden Daniels +2000
Kellen Mond +1800
Kedon Slovis +1800
Matt Corral +4000
Bo Nix +4000
Spencer Sanders +4000
Tyler Shough +4000
Harrison Bailey +6600
Sean Clifford +6600
Michael Penix Jr +6600
Brock Purdy +6600
Zamir White +6600
Adrian Martinez +10000
Tanner Morgan +10000
Taulia Tagovailoa +10000
John Rhys Plumlee +10000
Emory Jones +4000
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