All posts by Joe Duffy

NBA Free Pick: Regression to the Mean Plays Out Tonight

The Grandmaster is a stunning 16-4 in NBA in 2021 and 22-11 overall. Four NBA Wise Guys led by NBA Game of the Week. Three NBA and a college basketball Major. Our college basketball is a famed outsourced as we have a super sharp loving a lower-profile game and it just so happens to be a strong bet from our #1 simulator. I exploit the top computer systems program (with formulas procured from other ones), bar none the top two simulators, and the elite power ratings. This means essentially thousands of man-hours evaluate every game and you get the best of best. Get the picks now   

Free NBA pick:

CHARLOTTE +8.5 Philadelphia 

At 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the Sixers have been better and hotter than the Hornets are 2-4 both outright and in the back pocket. Charlotte is off consecutive 15-point losses, while Philadelphia’s three game spread streak includes 25 and 15 points wins in their last two. The public salivates over hotter and better teams and oddsmakers know that, plus well, again regression. Regression to the mean based on overall record and spread streak saying go with inferior and colder team is 702-539-28. 

Fading teams that had gave up lot of assists in their last game is 664-517-21. Bet at GTBets  

2021 NFL Wildcard lines, Updates Super Bowl Odds

The Chiefs have less than half the Super Bowl odds of the next closest team. 

With one playoff spot still up for grabs tonight, SportsBetting went ahead and released Super Bowl LV odds for 15 teams. 

The U.S. sportsbook also posted spreads for the six Wild Card games (two NFC East scenarios).

Super Bowl and playoff odds are courtesy of SportsBetting


Super Bowl LV

Chiefs 2/1
Packers 5/1
Saints 7/1
Bills 8/1
Seahawks 12/1
Ravens 12/1
Buccaneers 14/1
Steelers 20/1
Titans 20/1
Rams 25/1
Colts 25/1
Browns 40/1
Bears 50/1
Redskins 100/1
Giants 150/1

Wild Card Round

Colts at Bills -7

Browns at Steelers -4.5

Ravens at Titans +2.5

Bears at Saints -9

Rams at Seahawks -3

Bucs at Washington +7
OR
Bucs at Giants +8.5

Free NBA Wise Guy For Sunday; #1 NBA Capper With Free Sports Pick

Joe Duffy’s Picks is on fire! Everything is as usual in 2021. I am 13-3 overall including a perfect 11-0 NBA. The link is specific why the gap is larger than it has been since early 90s between sharp and square bettors. Seven NFL led by two Wise Guys! Here is what many have waited for. Nine NBA led by four Wise Guys. This includes one side and one total where the top bets on our No. 1 simulator agrees with magical systems. Get the picks now 

Free pick is a premium pick on a Wise Guy! 

BOSTON -8 Detroit at Bovada

Tons of angles. Scorephone clients will recall that angle that has to do with teams off a loss under certain situations that we have won with literally since our debut in 1988. It works regular and postseason and applies here. Big road favorites versus team off at least one win is 484-331-16. Away favorites versus opponent off a close win is 356-234-9. Combine road favorites off a loss system with teams off a close win is 64-25 for 71.9 percent. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 66 percent.

Promises Made, Promises Exceeded for 33 Years; 11-0 in 2021, Why it’s only starting Revealed!

Yeah, the Notre Dame backdoor showed the bad beats didn’t magically disappear because of the calendar. But then my wife made my childhood good luck meal of pork and sauerkraut. I ate before any NBA tipped off and the kickoff of the second game (of course I had Ohio State). All 11 picks in the NBA in 2021 have been spread or totals blowouts, which means we have hit all 11. This is what happens when you work tirelessly discovering or spending big money acquiring the best computers systems that pro gamblers exploit. 

Thanks to sportsbooks popping up in many states, and networks and high-profile websites hiring people who don’t know shit about gambling to make picks, tailed by Joey Bagofdonuts, the sharp versus square chasm is returning to levels I have not seen since the early 1990s. Here is every pick released by Joe Duffy’s Picks in 2021. 11 winners, zero losers, none close. OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy has substantial reason to be confident 2021 will be the most profitable in gambling history. 

Saturday 5-0!

NBA

Wise Guy

Atlanta-Cleveland UNDER 233

Saturday Night NBA Total of the Year

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 821-546-38. A math total based on home/road splits goes under 279-146-12. When both apply, it goes under a crazy 68-21. In fact going back further 116-53.

NEW YORK +9 Indiana

Regression to the mean based on ats winning percentage says go with worse ats and SU team is 57-16-2 for 78.1 percent. Road underdogs under .500 on ATS losing streak versus an unrested team on pointspread winning streak are 821-764-36. 

OKLAHOMA CITY +7.5 Orlando

Regression to the mean based on ats winning percentage says go with worse ats and SU team is 57-16-2 for 78.1 percent. One based purely on ats margin is 258-197. This is also possibly our strongest computer bet of the season so far! One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 64 percent. Our second strongest model has OKC covering 63.5. 

Major

Toronto-New Orleans OVER 213

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The over version goes over at a rate of 1247-912-66. 

New York-Indiana UNDER 215

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 821-546-38. 

Friday 6-0!

Alabama-Ohio State Line, Massive Total Posted

Offensive fireworks are expected at the CFP National Championship between Alabama and Ohio State. 

SportsBetting  opened the Crimson Tide as 7-point favorites, and the over/under of 75.5 points is the second-largest in CFP history.

When the Buckeyes and Tide met in the 2015 CFP semis, the teams combined to score 77 points. That game went well over the 58-point total, and Ohio State won as a 7.5-point underdog, which is still the biggest upset in CFP history. 

Alabama has -250 moneyline odds to win the game while Ohio State has +220 odds to win outright. 

Top 10 Biggest CFP Spreads
2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama (-19) vs. Notre Dame
2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma
2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma
2016/17 Peach Bowl: Alabama (-12.5) vs. Washington
2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame
2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State
2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State
2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Florida State
2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-7) vs. Ohio State
2020/21 CFP Championship: Alabama (-7) vs. Ohio State

Top 10 Highest CFP Over/Unders
2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oregon (80.5)
2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma (75)
2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State (74)
2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5)
2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (65.5)
2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (65)
2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (63.5)
2017/18 Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia (62.5)
2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (61.5)
2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State (58)

Top 5 Biggest CFP Upsets
2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama
2016/17 CFP NCG: Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama
2014/15 CFP NCG: Ohio State (+6) vs. Oregon
2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson (+5) over Alabama
2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson (+3.5) over Oklahoma

Check out sports betting podcast

New Years Eve NBA Evening Winner NBA

8-3 bowls from Grandmaster! The Industry Bowl Game of the Year, side and total on WVU-ArmyTwo Thursday college football winners. This is not just Joe Duffy’s Bowl Game of the Year. This is the handicapping industry’s biggest bet of bowl season. Four NBA winners led by NBA Total of the Month. Get the picks now 

Free winner comes from NBA:

PHILADELPHIA -3 Orlando

The Magic are 4-0 SU, yet home underdogs. An angle that says to fade hot home underdogs is 446-324-22. Away favorites against undefeated teams a solid 40-32-2 in history of database. The more disappointing offense based on based on delta points scored is 407-306-14. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. 

Orlando is 4-0 ats by 9.4 ppg, while the Sixers are 2-2 -3.5 ats margin. Regression to the mean angle based on ats margin, says go with the much worse spread is 256-196-6. Joel Embid expected back for Sixers, while Terrence Ross is out for Magic. Ross is averaging 28 minutes per game, 11.1 points. Embid, of course, is Philly’s best player. I bet at Bovada

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NBA Betting Pick, Total

Strongest bet in gambling, a Wise Guy NBA with some angles that you have won with for decades. NBA side and total Majors and 4 ET college basketball side. Get the picks now 

NBA free pick is:

Atlanta-Brooklyn OVER 239

This is the highest total each team has seen. In fact, last game Atlanta’s total was just 225.5 and Brooklyn’s has just 227.5 and they went under. The teams have gone under a combined 6-of-7. But wait, I said the over. Doesn’t everything I said imply the under? 

Well, we do have an angle that uses the oddsmakers knowledge against them, utilizing some of the numbers I just quoted and create an angle that is a stunning 2250-1898-80, including 430-284-25 since 2015 for 60.2 percent. 

The Nets will get Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back from load management and both are very good offensive players. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate this game going over 67 percent with 248 points projected. Rebuilt Atlanta is gelling on offense. 

I bet at Bovada

College Basketball ATS computer Winner on Ole Miss vs. Alabama

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is 7-3 with bowl picks. Wise Guy college football prime time winning side. Seven NBA winners led by four Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Night college basketball winner added. Get the picks now 

Free pick:

OLE MISS +2 Alabama at Bovada

One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 69 percent. Another top model has our side covering 55 percent.  

KenPom has it as a one-point game. Obviously a mild edge, but still mild corroboration is better than cancelling pick. Massey agrees with the one-point contest. 

Free NBA Pick, Top NCAAB Teams to Bet on and Bet Against

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has NFL Wise Guy. I went 4-2 NBA yesterday, nailing only Wise Guy. Five NBA Wise Guys, side and four totals. Get the picks now 

NBA free pick is 

DENVER -6.5 Houston

The much more disappointing offense based on delta points scored is 403-306-14. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. Houston covered their only game, while Denver is 0-2 by -9.5 ppg. Regression to the mean angle says go with bad ats team versus a good one that is 252-195-6.

Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has Houston as the public play and public dogs die. It is rare when both our indexes have fairly strong contrarian bets that point towards betting on the favorite. 

Best teams to bet on in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests. 

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
Missouri State 3-0+17
UC Riverside 3-0-1+14.2
Kent State3-0+13.3
Drake 8-0+13.3
Winthrop5-0+12.7
Baylor6-0+12.7

Best teams to bet against in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests. 

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
Long Beach State1-2-14.5
San Jose State0-4-13.6
Northern Illinois 0-7-13.2

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Zags Undefeated Odds Updated, Clear Wooden Fave, but other Contenders

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are rolling this season, and have around 50/50 odds to become the fourth team to complete an undefeated season going in to the NCAA Tournament. 

Since 1979, only UNLV, Wichita State and Kentucky have accomplished the flawless feat. 

U.S. sportsbook SportsBetting has made the Zags a small underdog to complete an undefeated season. None of the aforementioned teams went on to win the title, and Gonzaga has 4/1 odds to do so.

Gonzaga is a 39-point favorite tonight against Northern Arizona.

Also below are updated NCAA Championship odds as well as the latest Wooden Award odds, where Iowa’s Luka Garza is an enormous favorite. 

Will Gonzaga finish the regular season and WCC tournament undefeated?
Yes +100
No -130

Will Gonzaga finish the 2020-21 season undefeated? (Regular season, conference tournament and NCAA Tournament included)
Yes +400
No -625

Will Gonzaga be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -400
No +275

Will Gonzaga be No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -300
No +225

Will Gonzaga reach Final Four in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -200
No +160


NCAA Championship  

Gonzaga 4/1
Baylor 10/1
Villanova 11/1
Kansas 12/1
Iowa 13/1
Illinois 16/1
Michigan State 20/1
West Virginia 25/1
Texas 25/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Virginia 28/1
Tennessee 28/1
Creighton 28/1
Texas Tech 33/1
Duke 33/1
Indiana 33/1
Florida State 33/1
San Diego State 33/1
Kentucky 40/1
North Carolina 40/1
Michigan 40/1
Ohio State 45/1
Arizona State 45/1
Houston 47/1
NC State 47/1
Florida 50/1
LSU 60/1
Oregon 60/1
Purdue 70/1
Alabama 70/1
SMU 70/1
Xavier 70/1
UCLA 70/1
Penn State 70/1
Auburn 70/1
Missouri 70/1
Stanford 70/1
Louisville 80/1
Arkansas 80/1
Richmond 80/1
Connecticut 80/1
Clemson 80/1
Arizona 80/1
Rutgers 90/1
Colorado 90/1
Memphis 90/1
Butler 90/1
Marquette 100/1
Maryland 100/1
Oklahoma 100/1
Miami 100/1
Virginia Tech 100/1
USC 100/1
Syracuse 100/1
Notre Dame 100/1
Providence 100/1
Georgetown 100/1
Iowa State 100/1
Wichita State 100/1
St. Louis 110/1
Seton Hall 125/1
Washington 125/1
BYU 150/1
Utah 150/1
Cincinnati 150/1
South Carolina 150/1
Texas A&M 150/1
Minnesota 150/1
Georgia 150/1
Georgia Tech 150/1


Wooden Award 

Luka Garza -385
Ayo Dosunmu +440
Corey Kispert +1000
Drew Timme +1200
Jalen Suggs +1200
Cade Cunningham +2500
Jared Butler +2500
Trayce Jackson-Davis +2500
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl +4000
Garrison Brooks +8000
James Bouknight +8000
Marcus Zegarowski +8000
McKinley Wright IV +8000
Ochai Agbaji +8000
Quentin Grimes +8000
Remy Martin +8000
Cam Thomas +10000
Collin Gillespie +10000
Derek Culver +10000
Evan Mobley +10000
Jalen Crutcher +10000
Keyontae Johnson +10000
Nate Reuvers +10000
Sam Hauser +10000
Kofi Cockburn +12000
MaCio Teague +12000
Matt Coleman III +12000
Matthew Hurt +12000
B.J Boston +15000
Chris Smith +15000

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