Great night winning picks. Wise Guy among three winners at 7 ET or later. We have a Wise Guy in which our top model has them covering nearly 70 percent and another power ratings has this underdog winning outright and covering by 7.5. Get Joe Duffy’s portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com
Richmond covers an impressive 66 percent of simulations on our top model, winning 83-69. Yes, I have said many times I’ll take talent over experience. However, in 2020 where teams have limited practice time, the fact the Spiders are a veteran time is huge. They run a modified Princeton offense, which requires patience, experience, faith in teammates. They have been running it with precision as a unit for some time. They have five guys averaging double figures. This is even more important this year because it shows they can play well as cohesive unit.
It takes similar qualities to defense, but Northern Iowa has had their share of guys in and out of lineup. A.J Green is their best player and is doubtful. They are also without Antwan Kimmons and Tytan Anderson. Yes, they got Trae Barlow back, but just his second game back and first against a quality foe. He came back against a D2 foe. He missed time because of Covid.
Jacob Gilyard is lightning quick for Spiders and poor defense of Northern Iowa. They have nobody to guard him. Austin Phyfe likely to guard Grant Golden and he’s horrible.
The Washington Football Team pulled off a massive upset against the undefeated Steelers on Monday, and some of their personnel are reaping benefits in the arena of projected accolades.
Alex Smith solidified his frontrunner position as the Comeback Player of the Year over Ben Roethlisberger, and Ron Rivera gained ground on Mike Tomlin in the Coach of the Year race.
SportsBetting has updated its odds for the primary NFL awards categories (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year) which you can find below.
Going into Week 13, Rivera had 30-1 odds to be named the league’s best coach. But his chances dropped to 20-1 after a gutty performance at Pittsburgh.
Smith has been the odds-on favorite for Comeback Player of the Year for a few weeks, and his odds jumped to -1500 after Monday’s comeback victory.
T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald are neck-and-neck for the DPOY honor, but Myles Garrett is gaining ground.
Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert remain the favorites for MVP and ROY, respectively. Get daily winners at OffshoreInsiders.com and get paid on time at SportsBetting
MVP Patrick Mahomes 1-4 Aaron Rodgers 3-1 Russell Wilson 10-1 Ben Roethlisberger 25-1 Josh Allen 50-1 Derrick Henry 100-1 Kyler Murray 100-1 Dalvin Cook 100-1 Alvin Kamara 100-1
Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt 7-4 Aaron Donald 7-4 Myles Garrett 7-2 Xavien Howard 15-1 Jalen Ramsey 20-1 Cameron Heyward 20-1 Khalil Mack 25-1 Devin White 30-1 Fred Warner 30-1 Stephon Tuitt 40-1 Joey Bosa 40-1 Trey Hendrickson 50-1 Za`Darius Smith 50-1
Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert 1-7 Justin Jefferson 5-1 Tua Tagovailoa 20-1 Chase Claypool 25-1 James Robinson 25-1 Antonio Gibson 25-1
Comeback Player of the Year Alex Smith 1-15 Ben Roethlisberger 8-1
Coach of the Year Mike Tomlin 1-1 Brian Flores 5-2 Kevin Stefanski 6-1 Sean Payton 10-1 Frank Reich 15-1 Andy Reid 15-1 Matt LaFleur 20-1 Ron Rivera 20-1 Mike Vrabel 30-1 Sean McDermott 30-1 Joe Judge 40-1 Jon Gruden 50-1 Kyle Shanahan 50-1
Despite a 1-3 record, Kentucky is still one of the National Championship favorites, according to the odds.
With nearly two weeks of play in the books, SportsBetting has opened adjusted odds for the NCAA Men’s college basketball title.
Gonzaga is now a clear-cut favorite at the top of the odds board at 3-1. The Zags and Baylor (6-1) are the only two teams with single-digit odds.
Kentucky has fallen to 16-1 after opening the season with 10-1 odds to win it all.
Duke and Virginia, both handed home upsets already this year, have seen their odds drop from 32-1 and 26-1, respectively.
Iowa squares off with North Carolina tomorrow, and despite the disparity in the teams’ rankings, the Tar Heels have the same championship odds as the Hawkeyes.
Here are the biggest risers and fallers in terms of the odds, and complete title odds for the 2020-21 season are below.
Odds are courtesy of Colorado-based sportsbook SportsBetting Notable Risers Gonzaga 9-1 to 3-1 Baylor 12-1 to 6-1 Marquette 100-1 to 47-1 NC State 150-1 to 47-1
Notable Fallers Villanova 8-1 to 13-1 Kentucky 10-1 to 16-1 Duke 15-1 to 32-1 Virginia 15-1 to 26-1 Florida State 28-1 to 80-1 Oregon 28-1 to 70-1 Michigan 33-1 to 110-1 Arizona State 40-1 to 80-1 Florida 40-1 to 80-1 Arizona 50-1 to 125-1 UConn 50-1 to 150-1 UCLA 50-1 to 150-1
National Championship Odds Gonzaga 3-1 Baylor 6-1 Villanova 13-1 Kentucky 16-1 Michigan State 16-1 Iowa 21-1 Kansas 21-1 North Carolina 21-1 West Virginia 21-1 Illinois 24-1 Virginia 26-1 Texas Tech 26-1 Tennessee 26-1 Texas 26-1 Duke 32-1 Wisconsin 32-1 Indiana 32-1 Creighton 40-1 Louisville 40-1 Houston 47-1 Ohio State 47-1 Marquette 47-1 NC State 47-1 Purdue 65-1 Arkansas 65-1 LSU 65-1 Richmond 65-1 Rutgers 65-1 Oregon 70-1 Florida 70-1 Maryland 70-1 Florida State 80-1 Arizona State 80-1 Alabama 80-1 Oklahoma 90-1 Michigan 110-1 Stanford 110-1 Colorado 110-1 Memphis 110-1 Miami 110-1 SMU 110-1 St. Louis 110-1 Xavier 110-1 Virginia Tech 110-1 Arizona 125-1 Connecticut 150-1 UCLA 150-1 San Diego State 150-1 Seton Hall 150-1 USC 150-1 Syracuse 150-1 Utah 150-1 Davidson 150-1 Notre Dame 175-1 Penn State 175-1 Butler 200-1 BYU 200-1 Dayton 200-1 Ole Miss 200-1 Western Kentucky 200-1 Cincinnati 200-1 South Carolina 200-1 St. Mary’s CA 200-1 Texas A&M 200-1 Minnesota 200-1 VCU 200-1 Georgia 200-1 Providence 200-1
One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 69 percent. Toledo balanced with four guys averaging double-figures. Fifth game for Toledo, just second for Eastern Michigan and teams with at least least four games under their belt playing teams with a max of one game cover about 56 percent of the time.
Saturday, MAC East Game of the Year and Fox Saturday Night Game of the Year as we are 30-11 with named plays. 13 winners led by six Wise Guys. Then Sunday, it’s the NFL. NFL Totals Twosome of the Year among 10 winners. Three are Wise Guys. All at OffshoreInsiders.com
The turbo-charged version of short road underdogs that you have heard about on VSIN points this weekend to Bowling Green, UCLA, Ball State, Florida Atlantic, Nebraska, Memphis, Western Kentucky
Michigan OVER 10-0-1 coming off a home game where they scored less than 27 points
Texas RB Keaontay Ingram is transferring
Gave depth with 250 rushing yards
Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell is done for year
64.7 percent of his pass attempts for 921 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INT
Jack Plummer takes over as QB
LSU will start T.J. Finley at QB
Biggest consensus bets in terms of percent of bets: Alabama 93, Florida 91
Far and away the two biggest public plays
Biggest line moves: Hawaii opened -6.5 now +2 to San Jose State, Oklahoma opened -13.5 now -21.5 to Oklahoma, Wisconsin -10 to -14 to Indiana, Colorado -3.5 to -7.5 to Arizona
Best teams based on margin of cover AKA sweat barometer. ATS record followed by ATS margin: Coastal Carolina 7-1-1 +16.2, BYU 6-2-1 +12, Indiana 6-0 +11.6
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover AKA sweat barometer. ATS record followed by ATS margin: Kansas 0-8 -13.4, Penn State 1-5 -12.3, Michigan 1-5 -11.5, Florida State 2-6 -11.1
Another angle from Joe Duffy’s database. Big away favorites in triple revenge are 63-25. Favors Colorado, Texas A&M, Tulsa
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Joe Duffy’s Picks: Talent lifts us up where we belong. A nice 8-3 recent run.Both college football sides up Thursday as we have acquired many new angles recently and the best keeps getting better. Three college basketball sides. First is at 3 ET and note CBB and CFB at 6 ET!
Florida is struggling try to play up-tempo and gave Army way too many open looks in their opener. Boston College is a good shooting team and will make UF pay unless the Gators somehow become infinitely more organized on defense in back-to-back games. Talk about baptism by fire, BC has been competitive in all their games, beating URI, and losing to Villanova and St. John’s by a combined 13 points. Mike White is not a good game coach and he has not figured out how to get his athletes to play solid rotation D. That will cost them against the great guard play of BC led by Wynston Tabbs. Massey says it should be a -4.5 line.
Joe Duffy is 5-3 for week, nailing only Wise Guy UIC. NFL total is up. We have added two night college basketball sides for a 3-0 sweep. Get the picks now
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
TARLETON STATE +26.5 Texas A&M
I worked with a journeyman handicapper on the score phones who would bend over backwards to manufacture so-called “intangibles” into his picks. And boy did he reach. But tonight one falls right on our lap–a legitimate intangible.
One of our Golden Rules of betting is that we cannot manufacture emotion. Tarleton State makes their Division I debut, that is against a fellow DI foe. This is their Final 4. Of course they want to keep it competitive and will have a big emotional edge. Not that they need an extra carrot, but they can really around the homecoming of their head coach Billy Gillispie. Though I don’t buy too much into the fact one coach does not want to embarrass the other, A&M’s coach is Buzz Williams, a good friend of Billy and I highly doubt he wants to humiliate Tarleton State on such a big day for the program.
State has some new talent and will have an element of surprise. MasseyRatings has this a 23-point game. So does KenPom. Not shockingly, the public is betting on the chalk, making it a decent contrarian bet. Another Golden Rule is knowing the public loves certainty and hates uncertainty. They are terrified to bet on the box of chocolates, which is why Tarleton State is getting extra points.
After months of research, we spent a lot of money getting the best computer simulations, power ratings, and models. Six winners, three Wise Guys, the first two at 1:30 and 2 ET! We have two games covering at least 2/3 of our top simulator. The Wise Guy has other strong models backing it up. The other bet is also a very good contrarian and other models have them as slight leans, but none contradicting these bets. Get the picks now
SAN DIEGO STATE +3 UCLA
Malachi Flynn gone, but CS Northridge transfer Terrell Gomez will open court
Big chance to beat a Power 5 team
One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found SD State covering 67 percent
Winning 72-66
Another top model has our side covering 55.8 percent almost dead even with State slightly better
Yes UCLA has 5 starters back, but theory those teams get out of gate quicker is false
The NFL Specialist is 6-3 NFL. We are a stunning 30-10 with named plays. Friday, college football Wise Guy, two Majors. Saturday, ESPN2 Total of the Year among six college football Wise Guys and four Majors. At press time, we have a substantial NFL card about ready, just waiting on one database update. Get it all at OffshoreInsiders.com
BALTIMORE +4.5 Pittsburgh
First of all, let me refute claims that home field advantage is out the window. Home teams are better both SU and ATS in 2020 than they were last year. Though we agree HFA is about two-points this year rather than three, we have an undefeated team against a team that is 6-4 SU. When we have an inferior road team based on SU record yet not a large underdog, the road team is 147-83-7 ATS. We have a similar angle that has to do with difference in wins, yet spread implies they are much more evenly matched it 165-107-7. Baltimore has lost two straight and obviously Pittsburgh has won 10 in a row. However, when teams are in opposite streaks, going with colder team is 75-44-2 under specific situations. It’s 58-28 for 67.4 percent when the net difference is 12 or better (Pittsburgh +10, Baltimore -2 game streak). Road teams in revenge under specific situations is 315-256-12.
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