Big weekend up at OffshoreInsiders.com Joe Duffy has a free pick on:

MINNESOTA +3.5 Houston

This is the first time Houston is favorite this season. Fading favorites that have usually been in underdogs role is 153-93-12 including 18-4 the last 22.  That being said, they’ve played KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Go with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 331-244-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.

Winless teams that blew at least an eight point lead the previous week are 49-24-1. Vikings led 24-12 last week against Titans.

Fading terrible teams (based on winning percentage) as favorites are 153-108-8. Vikings distraction as Titans players tested positive? If anything, just something to rally around. One simulator has Minnesota covering 52 percent, as a three-point win projected. Another has Minnesota covering 57.3 percent of time. Another power ratings has Minnesota -1.5 and projected to win by two.  We bet at GTBets

 

 

Storylines continue to be abundant in the NFL following three weeks of action. Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com working on a big week of football.

As usual, oddsmakers have turned some of those talking points into wagers. People can bet on a number of props such as who will be the next quarterback benched, when Jalen Hurts will make his first start (if at all), Mitchell Trubisky’s future, 0-3 teams qualifying for the playoffs and much more.

Odds from SportsBetting are subject to change and your readers can view real-time numbers via the link below.

Week 4 NFL Props:

Next QB benched (non-injury related)

Sam Darnold       3-1    (+300)

Ryan Fitzpatrick  4-1   (+400)

Justin Herbert    5-1    (+500)

Dwayne Haskins    6-1 (+600)

Daniel Jones      6-1     (+600)

Gardner Minshew         8-1     (+800)

Kirk Cousins      10-1   (+1000)

Nick Foles          12-1   (+1200)

Teddy Bridgewater 12-1         (+1200)

Baker Mayfield              14-1   (+1400)

Philip Rivers      16-1   (+1600)

Cam Newton     33-1   (+3300)

Which week will Jalen Hurts make first start?

Weeks 4-7      +400

Weeks 8-11    +250

Weeks 12-14  +225

Weeks 15-17  +150

Will Carson Wentz be benched during regular season? (non-injury related)

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Mitchell Trubisky start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +250

No   -400

Will Mitchell Trubisky start for any team during 2021 season?

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Tyrod Taylor start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +110

No   -150

Will any 0-3 team qualify for playoffs?

Yes  +450

No   -750

Will the Eagles make the playoffs?

Yes  +300

No   -500

Will the Texans make the playoffs?

Yes  +550

No   -1000

Will the Vikings make the playoffs?

Yes  +600

No   -1200

Which team will win a game first?

Jets       -300

Giants  +200

Will Jets and Broncos have new coach in Week 1 of 2021 season?

Yes  +100

No   -140

Will the Chiefs go 16-0?

Yes  +900

No   -2000

Week 4 NFL odds. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes. A common belief among sharps is that oddsmakers adjust to the fact the public always overreacts to previous week’s results. At Joe Duffy’s Picks, these are power ratings, adjusted for injuries. Bet these at MyBookie, latest odds.

	Thurs	SP/RL
8:25 PM
101	Broncos	-2 (-112)
102	Jets	+2 (-108)
	Sun	SP/RL
1:05 PM
251	Colts	-2 (-110)
252	Bears	+2 (-111)
1:05 PM
253	Saints	-5½ (-117)
254	Lions	+5½ (-103)
1:05 PM
255	Cardinals	-5 (-113)
256	Panthers	+5 (-107)
1:05 PM
257	Jaguars	+3 (-123)
258	Bengals	-3 (+104)
1:05 PM
259	Browns	+5½ (-109)
260	Cowboys	-5½ (-111)
1:05 PM
261	Vikings	+3 (+115)
262	Texans	-3 (-137)
1:05 PM
263	Seahawks	-7 (+101)
264	Dolphins	+7 (-121)
1:05 PM
265	Chargers	+5 (-106)
266	Buccaneers	-5 (-114)
1:05 PM
267	Steelers	+2 (-114)
268	Titans	-2 (-106)
1:05 PM
269	Ravens	-13 (-102)
270	WA Football Team	+13 (-119)
4:10 PM
271	Giants	+10 (-121)
272	Rams	-10 (+101)
4:30 PM
273	Patriots	+7 (-111)
274	Chiefs	-7 (-109)
4:30 PM
275	Bills	-2 (-111)
276	Raiders	+2 (-108)
8:25 PM
277	Eagles	–
278	49ers	–
	Mon	SP/RL
8:20 PM
279	Falcons	+6 (-111)
280	Packers	-6 (-109)

 

The Seattle Seahawks take on the Dallas Cowboys in Seattle. Dallas is 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ats, splitting their two totals. Seattle is 2-0 SU and ATS, going over both games. Seattle is third in the NFL in over margin, going over by an average of 16.8 points per game.

Dallas is fresh off a stunning come from behind win against Atlanta. Dogs of 4.5 or more off a comeback win in which they trailed by at least 17 points are go-against of 18-8 including 12-4 since 2006. This says to fade Dallas and go with Seattle. However, anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 185-129-8. One may point out that Dallas has played just two games. Overreaction is enormous early in year, so this angle is 73-43 for 62.9 percent in first four weeks or more accurately, weeks 3 and 4.

When a team, in this case Seattle, is coming off consecutive games in which at least 60 points were scored, and the current total is 57 or higher, it goes over 15-4-1 all-time. It applies here.

Odds: Seattle is -5 and a total of 57. It opened Seattle -3, -116 and 56.

Public betting percentages: Though 55 percent of bets on Seattle, 84 percent of money on Dallas. 79 percent of bets and 94 percent of money on over.

Power ratings: The best power ratings anywhere, say that Seattle should be laying -2.5 with a total of 52 and project Seattle to win 27-24,

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Dallas covering about 52 percent of the time, going under 67 percent with 30-26 final in favor of the Hawks. Another has Dallas covering 56.6 percent of the time at 4.5. The same percentage applies at 5 except the probability of a push goes up to two percent. It has the game under 53.6 percent of the time. Their power line is Seattle -3 and 55.

Against the spread trends: Dallas 10-3 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Seattle 3-7 at home.

Over-under trends: Dallas over 13-3 off spread loss. Seattle over 12-5 off SU win.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. 10 NFL Sunday, season-high four Wise Guys, plus Monday Night Football winner. All this and more at OffshoreInsiders.com with new much more mobile friendly website.

Our official free pick is DALLAS +5 at NFL live lines.

As you enjoy the new website at OffshoreInsiders.com and its mobile friendliness, we present prop odds. With three of the Power 5 conferences in action this weekend, oddsmakers took a look around the college football landscape and wondered which coaches might be on the hot seat.

Below you will find odds for the first head coach fired in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. Odds do not take into account a coach resigning or retiring.

Odds from SportsBetting are subject to change and your readers can view real-time numbers via the link below.

Head Coach odds:

First ACC head coach fired

Dino Babers  3-2

Dave Doeren  2-1

Pat Narduzzi  6-1

Justin Fuente  6-1

Manny Diaz  10-1

Mike Norvell  10-1

David Cutcliffe  12-1

Mack Brown  14-1

Geoff Collins  16-1

Jeff Hafley  20-1

Scott Satterfield  20-1

Dave Clawson  20-1

Bronco Mendenhall  25-1

Brian Kelly  33-1

Dabo Swinney  100-1

First Big 12 head coach fired

Tom Herman  3-2

Matt Wells  3-2

Neal Brown  3-1

Les Miles  6-1

Chris Klieman  8-1

Gary Patterson  10-1

Mike Gundy  10-1

Matt Campbell  14-1

Dave Aranda  20-1

Lincoln Riley  28-1

First Big Ten head coach fired

Lovie Smith  2-1

Scott Frost  3-2

Jim Harbaugh  5-1

Pat Fitzgerald  5-1

Tom Allen  8-1

Jeff Brohm  9-1

Kirk Ferentz  12-1

Mike Locksley  14-1

Paul Chryst  20-1

PJ Fleck +2500

Mel Tucker  33-1

Greg Schiano  50-1

James Franklin  50-1

Ryan Day  100-1

First SEC head coach fired

Will Muschamp  2-1

Derek Mason  2-1

Jeremy Pruitt  3-1

Gus Malzahn  5-1

Sam Pittman  8-1

Lane Kiffin  10-1

Mike Leach  10-1

Jimbo Fisher  14-1

Eli Drinkwitz  20-1

Mark Stoops  20-1

Kirby Smart  33-1

Dan Mullen  33-1

Ed Orgeron  50-1

Nick Saban  100-1

Follow us on social media: YouTube, Facebook, Periscope, VK, OK, Twitter, Instagram (new and hot), Pinterest.

The Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars as week 3 NFL betting begins. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, going over 1-1. The Jags are 1-1 SU, covering both games and both went over the total. The Jags games have gone over by an average of 10.9 points per game.

Odds: Jacksonville is -3 but very low juice, in fact +105 at some books, The total is 48 at MyBookie. Last week, it opened at -1.5 and 44.

Public betting percentages: The Jags have 69 percent of bets and a stunning 90 percent of cash on them. The over is favored by 69 and 90 percent respectively.

Power ratings: The top power ratings have Jags -4.5 and 48.5 with Jacksonville projected to win 27-22.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Miami covering the field goal 49 percent of the time, a mild plurality because of the expected pushes on the key number. 55 percent of their simulations go over and their predicted final score is Jacksonville coming out on top 27-25. The other widely respected model has Miami covering 56.4 percent to 35.6 for Jacksonville, with a ton of pushes. They have 56.6 percent of simulations going under 48, with 40.9 exceeding the total. They have Jacksonville winning by two with 45 points scored.

Against the spread trends: Miami 7-2 off loss, 16-37 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Jacksonville is 8-2 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over-under trends: Miami has gone under 8-2 on Thursdays but over 6 straight off loss. Jacksonville has gone under 9-4 home.

Injuries: Jaguars WR DJ Clark, who has seven catches in two games for 109 yards and a touchdown in questionable. Weather is not expected to be a big factor, though at 87 degrees, depth could be a factor. Winds will be at 12 mph.

JDP is 13-7 last 20 in football. Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year, NFL Thursday, plus NBA. If you have never gotten a sports service pick or been burned by fly-by-night scammers, today is your day to purchase and begin the rest of your gambling life with betting’s most exclusive country club.  Get the picks now at check out the much more mobile friendly experience at top NFL handicapper site.

Joe Duffy already has a big portfolio up for the weekend. Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year, NFL Thursday, four Saturday football and a lot more coming at OffshoreInsiders.com

ARMY +14 Cincinnati

Angle that has to do with big underdogs in games not expected to be high scoring is 276-178-20. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Army covering 67 percent of the time, losing by just six points. Another simulator has Army covering 58.3-40 with rest falling on 14, projected as 11 points better. Another has power line at Cincinnati -6.5.

Army with good speed at RB with Buchanan, Robinson, McCoy. This is Army’s toughest opponent of season, so they can put all their focus on this game. Dogs of 10.5 or more off consecutive 20 point or more wins are 85-61-1 if not playing at home. Favors Army.

I bet at NFL live lines, latest odds