All posts by Joe Duffy

Official Monday Night Football Betting Preview of Saints vs. Raiders

The New Orleans Saints take on the Las Vegas Raiders to finish off week 2 of NFL live lines. Las Vegas opens their billion-dollar stadium. Both teams are 1-0 SU and ATS, going over their only game. Home underdogs of two or more are 41-17-3 since 1991, including 19-9 in week 2. That would favor the Raiders.

Odds: Saints are -5.5 on the road with a total of 48.5 or 49. It opened -4.5 and 50.5.

Public betting percentages: The public as usual loves the road favorite, but at a reasonable rate with 64 percent of bets and 53 percent of money on the Saints. The over is being bet at 62 and 54 percent respectively.

Power ratings: The power line is New Orleans -4.5 and 51.5 with a projected Saints win of 27-23.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found New Orleans covering 52 percent at -5.5 with 52 percent going over 48.5. The other has Raiders overing 56.3 percent at +5.5 and 61.4 percent going over 48.5.

Against the spread trends: New Orleans 20-6 versus an opponent winning home record, but 1-7 overall in week 2. Vegas is 6-2 home underdogs,

Over-under trends: New Orleans over 20-8 after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vegas under 4-0 MNF.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Going back to last Monday night, Joe Duffy is 13-6 in football and early indications are that some mega-systems click in this week. Monday Night Football total, plus NHL side and total, and MLB. Our top two computer simulation models agree on the side and total. Get the picks now

Official Betting Preview Seahawks-Patriots, Live Stream, Odds

It is Sunday Night Football, New England vs. Seattle on NBC and streamed live. Each team is off double-digit wins and covers. New England went under, Seattle over in their initial contests.

Odds: Seattle is mostly a four-point favorite on live NFL lines but there are some 3.5s, though must with added juice. That total is predominately 45, though 44.5 has been seen at some books. The game opened Seattle -3, but with a whopping -137 juice, so in reality the line has not moved much as -4 was the price with normal juice. The total is up though from its 44 debut.

Public betting percentages: 68 percent of bets and money are on Seattle, but a massive discrepancy in the total with 70 percent of tickets on over, but 59 percent of money on under. Sharps say this implies the smart money is on the under.

Power ratings: New England winning 23-22 with power line of Pats -.5 and 44.5.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Seattle covering 51 percent of the time with the total going over 50 percent at 45, so with pushes, also a slim edge to the over with a projected final of Seattle 25-22. Another has New England covering at a 52.6-44.5 rate, with some pushes at 4. They have 60.1 percent of simulations exceeding 44.5. At 45, it’s 57.2-39.9 on the over, the rest pushes.

Against the spread trends: New England is 20-8 after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game but 0-4-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Seattle 3-7 off cover and 2-6 home favorites.

Over-under trends: Seattle over 9-3 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Series has gone over five straight.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from LateInfo wins with BC, even after big steam, everyone won! 22-5 since bowls! 10-2 since restart, 4-0 football! SNF side New England vs. Seattle from Big Red Syndicate. Big Red is a major figure and pioneer in offshore betting. He has unique access to professional oddsmakers and gamblers. All his bets are based on consulting with elite handicappers, pro bettors and linesmakers and tops the list of sources for LateInfo. Get the picks now

Week 3 NFL Lines Posted at Sportsbooks

Week 3 NFL lines are up at top sportsbooks such as MyBookie and Bovada. Many sharp bettors believe these are effective power ratings because odds will overreact to previous week’s results. These lines came out before kickoff of the previous week games. Obviously best football handicappers  must account for for injuries.

  Thurs SP/RL
 
8:25 PM
301 Dolphins +1½ (-110)
302 Jaguars -1½ (-110)
  Sunday SP/RL
 
1:05 PM
461 Raiders +6½ (-110)
462 Patriots -6½ (-110)
1:05 PM
463 Rams +3 (-121)
464 Bills -3 (EV)
1:05 PM
465 Texans +5½ (-121)
466 Steelers -5½ (EV)
1:05 PM
467 49ers -6½ (-105)
468 Giants +6½ (-115)
1:05 PM
469 Titans -1 (-110)
470 Vikings +1 (-110)
1:05 PM
471 WA Football Team +5½ (+105)
472 Browns -5½ (-125)
1:05 PM
473 Bengals +6 (-108)
474 Eagles -6 (-112)
1:05 PM
475 Bears +3 (-115)
476 Falcons -3 (-105)
4:10 PM
477 Jets +6½ (EV)
478 Colts -6½ (-120)
4:10 PM
479 Panthers +6 (-116)
480 Chargers -6 (-104)
4:30 PM
481 Lions +3½ (-110)
482 Cardinals -3½ (-110)
4:30 PM
483 Buccaneers -3½ (-110)
484 Broncos +3½ (-110)
4:30 PM
485 Cowboys +3½ (-109)
486 Seahawks -3½ (-111)
8:25 PM
487 Packers +4 (-110)
488 Saints -4 (-110)
  Monday SP/RL
 
8:20 PM
489 Chiefs +2 (-109)
490 Ravens -2 (-111)

 

Central Florida-Georgia Tech Free Betting Pick

Noon ET. LateInfo is 9-2 since restart, including 3-0 in football. Noon ET college football side. Hot tip comes from Big Red is a major figure and pioneer in offshore betting. He has unique access to professional oddsmakers and gamblers. All his bets are based on consulting with elite handicappers, pro bettors and linesmakers and tops the list of sources for LateInfo. Get the picks now

Free

CENTRAL FLORIDA -7.5 Georgia Tech

Tech off big upset over paper tiger Florida State. Mike Novell was not going to clean up mess he was left with after one game. Home dogs of 7.5 or more off win as dog of 10.5 or more are a 74-61-1 go-against. A 54.8 percent stat is not in and of itself anything special, but it does corroborate my belief this is a big letdown.

Tech is only in year two of a completely new system, so expect inconsistency. UCF QB Dillon Gabriel set a freshman record for passing yards with 3,653 and threw for 29 TDs with seven interceptions. Of the three computer programs/power ratings that are proven to win long-term, the only one with a strong bet has UCF covering 78.4 percent of simulations and winning by 21 in the strongest bet of the week.

Admittedly, the public does like dogs more this year, but over the years when public likes a big underdog, it is a strong contrarian play. With 59 percent of bets on Tech, a very good contrarian value for UCF. One of the many reasons I am more successful than any other handicapper is knowing how to properly weigh contrarian bets. It’s not based on mere percentages, but whether or not the public is on a dog, favorite, and most importantly how big of a chalk or pup the public is betting. Using weighted metrics, it is a good contrarian bet In fact, an outlaw source that leans even heavier on chalk has 57 percent of bets on Tech.

Week 2 NFL Betting Browns vs. Bengals Official Betting Preview

Two teams that are winless ATS, SU, and have gone under their only contest clash as week 2 NFL odds commence with the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns. The Browns are off a 32-point rout at the hands of Baltimore. Teams off a 32 point or more loss are 139-114-11, including 13-6 if laying six or more. However, of mild surprise considering week 2 overreaction is common in NFL betting, teams off a week 1 loss of 32 or more are 1-7 since 1999. This record is both SU and ATS by a 31.2-12.4 margin.

Odds: Cleveland is laying -6 with a total of 43.5. Both are down from the opening odds of -7.5 and 46.

Public betting percentages: The public is more willing to bet on underdogs this season, presumably with the uncertainty as 56 percent of bets and 64 percent of cash on the Bengals. A slight majority of 51 percent of both tickets and cash are on the over.

Power ratings: Cleveland is projected to win 23-21 with math lines at Browns -1.5 and 43.5.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Cleveland covering -6 at 53 percent of the time. Another says Cleveland should be laying eight points and has them covering 56.6 percent to 40.8, the rest pushes.

Computer simulations OU: Of 10,000 simulations from one of the industry’s elite simulations, 59 percent went over the 43.5. The other elite one says the total should be 47 and has 59.7 percent of simulations going over, 40.3 under.

Against the spread trends: Cincinnati is 33-16-2 in September and 0-4 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cleveland is 16-38 off loss. The favorite has covered 8-of-10 meetings.

Over-under trends: The series has gone over 4-0-1 lately. Cincinnati has gone under 8-1-1 away dogs. Cleveland has gone under the total five straight Thursday night contests.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from NFL specialist Joe Duffy, the best ever. JDP is back on fire in the NBA plays since adding top three computer simulation/power ratings programs to our arsenal. We are 8-4 in NBA. Thursday night NFL side and total led by Wise Guy. We often skip sides and totals on primetime games. In fact, last week SNF, TNF, two MNF, we had just won pick and hit it. Tonight, Wise Guy side, Major total on TNF. MLB side added for night action. 3-1 NHL playoffs, get NHL total to complete a three-sport sweep! Get the picks now

Three regular rotation college football winners, plus Added Rotation Total of the Month! 13 NFL Sunday!  

NFL Prop Bets: Covid PPD, Brady, Newtown, Tua Bets Among Sportsbook Options

Cam Newton and the running Pats, Tom Brady and the Tampa turnovers, missed field goals, masks, sacks and more.

Week 1 produced an abundance of storylines for the remainder of the NFL season. SportsBetting has created some interesting prop bets surrounding the trending news, which you can find below, along with some additional context.

Additionally, there are updated Super Bowl, conference and division numbers.

Odds are subject to change and your readers can view real-time odds via the links below.

Will any last place team from 2019 win its division?

Yes +150

No -200

The Cardinals, Jaguars, Chargers and Redskins all finished last in 2019, and they all won in Week 1.

Will an NFL coach be fined for not wearing mask?

Yes +110

No -150

After more than a few coaches were shown on the sidelines with masks down or half on, the NFL sent out a memo warning teams/coaches to not let it happen again. 

Will an NFL game be postponed due to COVID?

Yes +500

No -900

Total interceptions by Tom Brady in Week 2

Over .5

Under .5

Bruce Arians had some choice words about Brady’s two picks in Week 1.

Will Tom Brady throw a pick-six in Week 2?

Yes +600

No -1500

Brady has throw a pick-six in three consecutive games going back to last year. Matt Schaub holds the record with four straight.

Total interceptions by Tom Brady during 2020 reg. season

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Terrific Tom has never thrown more than 15 in a season, but he’s on pace for 32.

Team with most wins during 2020 reg. season

Patriots +110

Bucs -150

Will Cam Newton lead Patriots in rushing yards?

Yes +300

No -500

Cam ran for 75 yards in Week 1, and Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins in rushing last year so we know anything is possible.

Will Cam Newton lead Patriots in rushing TDs?

Yes +250

No -350

Total missed field goals in Week 2

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

There were 19 missed field goals in Week 1, the most of any week since 2011.

Total missed field goals by Stephen Gostkowski in Week 2

Over .5

Under .5

The future Hall of Famer may suffer the same fate as Adam Vinatieri if he keeps kicking like he did in Week 1.

Total sacks allowed by Eagles in Week 2

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

Philadelphia allowed eight sacks by the Redskins last week, and we all know how injury-prone the man under center has been.

Will Seahawks attempt pass from opponent 1-yard line in Week 2?

Yes +350

No -600

Homage to Super Bowl XLIX and Malcolm Butler.

Tua Tagovailoa total starts during 2020 reg. season

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Fitzmagic didn’t look so magical in Week 1. When will we see the rookie?

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Updated NBA Championship and NCAA Basketball Championship Odds

With the NCAA men’s basketball oversight committee expected to vote on a proposed start date to the 2020-21 season today, we thought it would be a good time to provide the latest championship odds.

Numbers are provided by SportsBetting.ag, and you can find the list of 50+ teams and their respective odds below.

In other basketball news, with the Western Conference Finals set and one game of the East Finals completed, there are updated NBA title odds.

With the top two seeds from the East and the Clippers gone, unsurprisingly, the Lakers are odds-on favorites.

NBA Championship Odds

Los Angeles Lakers  1-2  (-200)

Miami Heat  9-2  (+450)

Boston Celtics  11-2  (+550)

Denver Nuggets  9-1  (+900)

The Lakers are listed as 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 against Denver.

Finally, one-sided action on Wes Unseld Jr. has forced the sportsbook to take down odds for the Bulls next head coach. Whether the team and Unseld Jr. have reached an agreement is not public knowledge, but perhaps “Vegas knows something.”

Odds are subject to change and your readers can view real-time odds via the links below.

NCAA Championship Odds
Villanova 7-1
Iowa 8-1
Baylor 9-1
Gonzaga 9-1
Kansas 12-1
Kentucky 12-1
Virginia 12-1
Duke 14-1
Illinois 14-1
Michigan State 16-1
West Virginia 16-1
Wisconsin 16-1
Creighton 18-1
Florida State 18-1
North Carolina 18-1
San Diego State 20-1
Tennessee 22-1
Michigan 25-1
Oregon 28-1
Texas Tech 28-1
Florida 30-1
Ohio State 30-1
UCLA 30-1
Louisville 33-1
Seton Hall 33-1
Houston 35-1
Arizona State 40-1
Auburn 40-1
Indiana 40-1
LSU 40-1
Arizona 50-1
Maryland 50-1
Stanford 50-1
Rutgers 60-1
Texas 60-1
USC 60-1
Memphis 75-1
Arkansas 80-1
BYU 80-1
Connecticut 80-1
Dayton 80-1
Miami FL 80-1
Purdue 80-1
Richmond 80-1
Butler 100-1
Colorado 100-1
Marquette 100-1
Minnesota 100-1
Oklahoma 100-1
Penn State 100-1
Syracuse 125-1
Iona 250-1
Ole Miss 250-1

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