Get sports betting information and updates to beat the sportsbooks including sports handicapping information and how to beat the Vegas line. While beating the NFL lines and the NCAA college football odds is the specialty of GodsTips, we also have information on sports service plays on the MasterLockLine and beating the over/under Vegas betting line is the domain of Stevie Vincent.
Army fits into a momentum angle that is 137-67-6. Plus, Army has a legit chance at a Cinderella season along with appropriately Navy. Thus, you can see how they can use style points as much as anyone. While NFL and NBA are about regression to the mean, college football is the biggest momentum sports in betting.
Big bets this weekend!
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Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off a heartbreaking loss. We have several versions of it with similar concept, but slightly different metrics, all with uncanny results. This one is 96-29-4. It has to do with teams off their first loss of the season and it being a blowout loss.
Frankly, because it has not been as automatic in recent years, it is not a premium bet at this moment, but our free picks are either premium bets or our top games that we are considering for premium.
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Spread: 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Cowboys.
Total Points: 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle are on the OVER.
Analysis
The betting splits for this Thursday Night Football game show a significant public lean towards the Dallas Cowboys. With 83% of bets and 80% of the money backing Dallas, this presents a classic opportunity for contrarian bettors to fade the public. Historically, betting against the public in such lopsided scenarios can be profitable, especially when the line has moved from its opening position of Cowboys -4 to -6 at sportsbooks.
The total points market also shows a majority of bets on the OVER, with 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle. This indicates that the public expects a high-scoring game, which might be another angle for contrarian bettors to consider.
Joe Duffy’s Insights
Joe Duffy, a renowned sports handicapper, is kicking off his third consecutive winning week with a strong lineup of bets. His picks for Thursday Night Football include both the side and total, along with a college football side, an NFL player prop, and an MLB side. Duffy’s track record this season is impressive, with a 6-0 record on named plays in football and an 11-5 record in the NFL. His latest success includes hitting the Bills OVER as the Monday Night Football Total of the Year.
For more detailed analysis and picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com.
Every Thursday or Friday, Betonline opens up look-ahead lines for the following week. They are taken down on Sunday right before the games start. Here are the opening lines and lookahead lines for week 4.
Then they are re-opened once the games end. OffshoreInsiders.com exploits this intel.
Sometimes there can be a massive change based on injuries or poor play.
If there’s a big line movement from the look-ahead lines, that will be notated.
As you’ll see below, Week 4 has had by far the biggest changes from the look-ahead lines.
As we dive into the latest college football betting landscape, it’s essential to understand where the public money is going, which teams are seeing sharp action, and how line moves are reflecting market sentiment. This week’s college football betting activity is a fascinating mix of heavy public support, sharp bettor interest, and significant line movement. Let’s take a closer look at the trends that we bet at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie:
Public Betting Trends: % of Bets
📊 Ohio State, Army, Iowa The Buckeyes of Ohio State are once again a public favorite, with a large percentage of bettors throwing their support behind the perennial powerhouse. Army and Iowa round out the teams receiving the majority of public backing. This trend indicates strong confidence in these teams’ ability to cover the spread, even as oddsmakers adjust lines to account for this wave of betting activity.
Where the Big Money is: % of Money
💵 Duke, UTSA, Toledo, Ohio State While Ohio State dominates in terms of the number of bets, larger amounts of money are also coming in on the Blue Devils of Duke, UTSA, and Toledo. When big money is flowing in a particular direction, it often suggests that more experienced or high-stakes bettors are confident in their picks. Keep an eye on these teams as they could be indicators of where the sharps are leaning.
Sharp Action
🔪 Troy, Boise State The sharp bettors—those considered to have inside information or advanced analytical skills—are targeting Troy and Boise State this week. When sharp action piles up on a team, it often means there’s hidden value in the lines that the general public hasn’t spotted yet. This sharp action could lead to further line movement as sportsbooks adjust to balance their risk.
Line Movements
📈 Line moves are an essential tool in any bettor’s arsenal, as they reflect how sportsbooks are reacting to incoming bets. This week, we’ve seen significant movement in several games:
Clemson opened at -14.5 and has been bet up to -18.5, indicating strong confidence in the Tigers to cover a big spread.
FAU opened at -2 but is now sitting at +1.5, a 3.5-point swing. This kind of movement suggests heavy action on their opponent.
SMSU has seen its line move from -13 to -16.5, reflecting increased belief in a dominant performance.
Memphis saw their line shrink from -12.5 to -9.5, which may indicate concerns about their ability to cover a double-digit spread.
North Texas opened at -10 but has moved to -7, a key move around a critical number in football betting.
Baylor flipped from a 1-point underdog to a 2-point favorite, a massive swing suggesting strong public and sharp confidence in the Bears.
Oregon State opened as a 6-point favorite but now sits at -3, reflecting significant action on their opponent.
What These Trends Mean for Bettors
Understanding the dynamics between public betting, sharp action, and line movement can give you a strategic edge. Public money can inflate lines, providing value on the opposite side. Sharp action often indicates hidden value, while line movements can reveal where sportsbooks are trying to balance their books.
As the week progresses, keeping an eye on line shifts and where the big money is going will help you make more informed bets. Whether you’re riding with the public on Ohio State or following sharp action on Boise State, understanding these trends can be the difference between cashing a ticket and coming up short.
Conclusion This week’s college football betting slate offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on public trends, sharp action, and evolving lines. Stay updated, and use these insights to make smarter wagers as the season unfolds. Keep in mind that the most successful bettors are those who combine knowledge of these factors with discipline and strategy.
Happy betting, and good luck!
Joe Duffy is the strongest gambler in history and has three Wise Guy bets leading an incredible portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com
By using data from the betting market, including public money, sharp action, and line movements, you can better position yourself to make informed decisions when wagering on college football. Stay sharp, and watch for late line shifts as kickoff approaches!
Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie
The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.
Sharp Money on Jets?
The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.
Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs
For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.
Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season
Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The “honeymoon period” under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.
Key Computer Program Predictions:
BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15
These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.
Trends to Watch:
Patriots’ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
Robert Saleh’s September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
Jets: Saleh’s teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.
Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI
The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.
Betting Systems Favor the Patriots
Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:
Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.
Player Prop Bets to Target:
Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson won’t see many targets in the passing game.
Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgers’ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.
Injury Report:
Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley can’t play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New England’s defense.
This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.
Here is the Sunday NFL Tailgate Party: everything gamblers need to know to make a bloody fortune in week 2 NFL betting!
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So many super sharp systems apply here. Combo of going with a team with the much worse delta points allowed and a road underdog that has not overachieved is a sensational 36-6 ATS for about a 60 percent ROI. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
The master angle about dogs that have not overachieved based on wins compared to how often they have been a favorite is a stunning 1229-1027-63 for +99.30 units. It hits 63.3 percent in first three weeks, so again overestimating short-term results is massive early season.
Week 2 is all about square bettors panicking and oddsmakers knowing it. A big bounce back angle about going with teams that loss as a favorite in opening week, under specific situations that apply in this game are 53-29-2 for 23.4 ROI.
Of our models, simulators, power ratings, BetQL, which tends to shade towards chalk, has this as only a one-point game and a solid bet on the Browns.
Here are notes for each award along with some changes from the previous week.
MVP
Patrick Mahomes Jr. is still the leader.
Derek Carr and Saquon Barkley went from 250/1 to 100/1.
Deshaun Watson went from 66/1 to 150/1.
Jordan Love went from 14/1 to 75/1.
Bryce Young went from 100/1 to 300/1.
Daniel Jones went from 150/1 to 300/1.
Drake Maye, Michael Penix, Nick Chubb, and Russell Wilson are now off the board.
Defensive Player of the Year
TJ Watt is the new favorite.
Khalil Mack went from 88/1 to 33/1.
Roquan Smith went from 75/1 to 50/1.
Josh Allen went from 18/1 to 50/1.
Montez Sweat went from 33/1 to 75/1.
Bradley Chubb, Jalen Ramsey, and Jonathan Greenard are now off the board.
Coach of the Year
Mike Mcdonald is still the favorite
Jerod Mayo went from 33/1 to 10/1.
Mike Tomlin went from 28/1 to 14/1.
Todd Bowles went from 60/1 to 22/1.
Dan Quinn went from 18/1 to 40/1.
Todd Bowles 40/1 to 100/1/
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Caleb Williams is still the favorite.
Xavier Worthy went from 20/1 to 10/1.
Brian Thomas went from 45/1 to 28/1.
Blake Corum and Jonathon Brooks went from 66/1 to 100/1.
Xavier Legette went from 66/1 to 150/1.
Bucky Irving is now on the board.
Audric Estime, Isaac Guerendo, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, Ray Davis, Roman Wilson, Spencer Rattler, and Troy Franklin are now off the board.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Dallas Turner is still the leader.
Kamari Lassiter went from 50/1 to 16/1.
Edgerrin Cooper went from 25/1 to 50/1.
Adisa Isaac, Bralen Trice, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and Jer’Zhan Newton are now off the board.
Comeback Player of the Year
Aaron Rodgers remains the leader.
J.K. Dobbins went from 33/1 to 7/1.
Justin Fields went from 50/1 to 12/1.
Daniel Jones went from 14/1 to 50/1.
Deshaun Watson 35/1 to 100/1.
Sam Darnold and Uchenna Nwosu are now on the board.
Russell Wilson, and Zach Wilson are now on the board.
Awards Odds
Note: Players/Coaches with ↓ improved odds to win award, players/coaches with ↑ odds lengthened to win award. OTB ↑ means off the board. All from Betonline
2024-25 Regular Season MVP
9/5/24
9/11/24
Patrick Mahomes
11/2 (+550)
15/4↓ (+375)
Josh Allen
6/1
11/2 ↓ (+550)
CJ Stroud
17/2 (+850)
9/1 ↑
Jalen Hurts
14/1
10/1 ↓
Brock Purdy
14/1
14/1 ↓
Lamar Jackson
22/1
14/1 ↓
Joe Burrow
9/1
16/1 ↑
Tua Tagovailoa
22/1
16/1 ↓
Dak Prescott
25/1
20/1 ↓
Jared Goff
16/1
20/1 ↑
Aaron Rodgers
20/1
25/1 ↑
Anthony Richardson
25/1
33/1 ↑
Justin Herbert
33/1
33/1
Matthew Stafford
50/1
33/1 ↓
Kirk Cousins
40/1
40/1
Trevor Lawrence
45/1
40/1 ↓
Baker Mayfield
100/1
66/1 ↓
Caleb Williams
33/1
66/1 ↑
Christian McCaffrey
50/1
66/1 ↑
Kyler Murray
33/1
66/1 ↑
Jordan Love
14/1
75/1 ↑
Derek Carr
250/1
100/1 ↓↓
Geno Smith
80/1
100/1 ↑
Saquon Barkley
250/1
100/1 ↓↓
Deshaun Watson
66/1
150/1 ↑
Ja’Marr Chase
150/1
150/1
Justin Jefferson
100/1
150/1 ↑
Sam Darnold
150/1
150/1
Tyreek Hill
100/1
150/1 ↑
Jayden Daniels
200/1
200/1
Justin Fields
150/1
200/1 ↑
Micah Parsons
250/1
200/1 ↓
Will Levis
100/1
200/1 ↑
Derrick Henry
250/1
250/1
Bo Nix
200/1
300/1 ↑
Bryce Young
100/1
300/1 ↑
Cooper Kupp
250/1
300/1 ↑
Daniel Jones
150/1
300/1 ↑
Gardner Minshew
200/1
300/1 ↓
TJ Watt
250/1
300/1 ↑
Drake Maye
300/1
OTB ↑
Michael Penix
300/1
OTB ↑
Nick Chubb
250/1
OTB ↑
Russell Wilson
250/1
OTB ↑
2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year
9/5/24
9/11/24
T.J. Watt
6/1
7/2 ↓ (+350)
Micah Parsons
11/2 (+550)
17/4 ↓ (+425)
Myles Garrett
6/1
8/1 ↑
Aidan Hutchinson
12/1
10/1
Maxx Crosby
7/1
10/1 ↑
Nick Bosa
15/2 (+750)
10/1↑ ↑
Chris Jones
28/1
20/1 ↓
Khalil Mack
88/1
33/1 ↓
Kyle Hamilton
40/1
33/1 ↓
Rashan Gary
28/1
33/1 ↑
Sauce Gardner
40/1
33/1 ↓
Will Anderson Jr.
25/1
33/1 ↑
Danielle Hunter
33/1
50/1 ↑
Josh Allen (JAX)
18/1
50/1 ↑
Quinnen Williams
40/1
50/1 ↑↓
Roquan Smith
75/1
50/1 ↓
Jalen Carter
66/1
66/1
Travon Walker
100/1
66/1 ↑
Joey Bosa
55/1
75/1 ↑
Montez Sweat
33/1
75/1 ↑
Trey Hendrickson
50/1
75/1 ↑
Fred Warner
100/1
100/1
Haason Reddick
50/1
100/1 ↑
Jaelen Phillips
100/1
100/1
Jaire Alexander
150/1
100/1 ↓
Jaylon Johnson
100/1
100/1
Justin Madubuike
100/1
100/1
Minkah Fitzpatrick
100/1
125/1 ↑
Brian Burns
66/1
150/1 ↑
Devon Witherspoon
80/1
150/1 ↑
George Karlaftis
150/1
150/1
Jadeveon Clowney
150/1
150/1
Josh Sweat
150/1
150/1
Kayvon Thibodeaux
100/1
150/1 ↑
Matthew Judon
66/1
150/1 ↑
Patrick Surtain II
66/1
150/1 ↑
Derwin James
100/1
200/1 ↑
Bradley Chubb
100/1
OTB ↑
Jalen Ramsey
100/1
OTB ↑
Jonathan Greenard
150/1
OTB ↑
2024-25 Coach of the Year
9/5/24
9/11/24
Mike Macdonald
12/1
7/1 ↓
Jim Harbaugh
8/1
8/1
Matt Eberflus
8/1
9/1 ↑
Jerod Mayo
33/1
10/1
Kevin O’Connell
18/1
12/1 ↓
DeMeco Ryans
14/1
14/1
Mike Tomlin
28/1
14/1 ↓
Raheem Morris
12/1
16/1 ↑
Shane Steichen
14/1
16/1 ↑
Dan Campbell
28/1
20/1 ↓
Jonathan Gannon
25/1
20/1 ↓
Mike McDaniel
28/1
20/1 ↓
Matt LaFleur
18/1
22/1 ↓
Todd Bowles
60/1
22/1 ↓
Brian Callahan
20/1
25/1 ↑
Dave Canales
16/1
25/1 ↑
Robert Saleh
18/1
28/1 ↑
Sean Payton
25/1
28/1 ↑
Kyle Shanahan
40/1
33/1 ↓
Antonio Pierce
33/1
40/1 ↑
Dan Quinn
18/1
40/1 ↑
Dennis Allen
66/1
40/1 ↓
Sean McVay
40/1
40/1
Zac Taylor
33/1
40/1 ↑
Mike McCarthy
66/1
50/1 ↓
Nick Sirianni
66/1
50/1 ↓
Sean McDermott
40/1
50/1 ↑
Andy Reid
66/1
66/1
Doug Pederson
66/1
66/1
John Harbaugh
50/1
66/1 ↑
Brian Daboll
40/1
100/1 ↑
Kevin Stefanski
66/1
100/1 ↑
2024-25 Offensive Rookie of the Year
9/5/24
9/11/24
Caleb Williams
3/2 (+150)
8/5 ↑ (+160)
Jayden Daniels
19/4 (+475)
5/1 ↑
Marvin Harrison Jr.
6/1
8/1
Bo Nix
9/1
10/1 ↑
Xavier Worthy
20/1
10/1 ↓
Malik Nabers
8/1
14/1 ↑
Drake Maye
28/1
20/1 ↓
Brian Thomas Jr.
45/1
28/1 ↓
Keon Coleman
33/1
33/1
Brock Bowers
50/1
40/1 ↓
Ladd McConkey
33/1
45/1 ↑
Bucky Irving
OTB
50/1 ↓
Michael Penix Jr.
66/1
55/1 ↓
Rome Odunze
50/1
75/1 ↑
Adonai Mitchell
75/1
100/1 ↑
Blake Corum
66/1
100/1 ↑
Jaylen Wright
75/1
100/1 ↑
Jonathon Brooks
66/1
100/1 ↑
MarShawn Lloyd
100/1
100/1
Trey Benson
75/1
100/1 ↑
Xavier Legette
66/1
150/1 ↑
Audric Estime
125/1
OTB ↑
Isaac Guerendo
150/1
OTB ↑
Jalen McMillan
150/1
OTB ↑
Ja’Lynn Polk
100/1
OTB ↑
Jermaine Burton
100/1
OTB ↑
Ray Davis
150/1
OTB ↑
Roman Wilson
150/1
OTB ↑
Spencer Rattler
100/1
OTB ↑
Troy Franklin
100/1
OTB ↑
2024-25 Rookie Defensive Player of the Year
9/5/24
9/11/24
Dallas Turner
9/2 ((+450)
3/1 ↓
Laiatu Latu
3/1
17/4 ↑ (+425)
Jared Verse
8/1
5/1
Byron Murphy II
8/1
10/1 ↑
Quinyon Mitchell
14/1
14/1
Chop Robinson
12/1
16/1 ↑
Kamari Lassiter
50/1
16/1 ↓
Terrion Arnold
10/1
20/1 ↑
Junior Colson
25/1
28/1 ↑
Nate Wiggins
40/1
28/1 ↓
Payton Wilson
25/1
33/1 ↑
Braden Fiske
50/1
40/1 ↓
Cooper DeJean
33/1
50/1 ↑
Edgerrin Cooper
25/1
50/1 ↑
Javon Bullard
50/1
50/1
Kool-Aid McKinstry
40/1
50/1 ↑
Marshawn Kneeland
66/1
50/1
Max Melton
50/1
50/1
Mike Sainristil
33/1
50/1 ↑
Tyler Nubin
50/1
50/1
Darius Robinson
33/1
66/1 ↑
Chris Braswell
66/1
75/1 ↑
Austin Booker
50/1
100/1 ↑
T.J. Tampa
60/1
100/1 ↑
Adisa Isaac
100/1
OTB ↑
Bralen Trice
50/1
OTB ↑
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
75/1
OTB ↑
Jer’Zhan Newton
40/1
OTB ↑
2024-25 Comeback Player of the Year
9/5/24
9/11/24
Aaron Rodgers
2/1
2/1
Anthony Richardson
9/1
5/1 ↓
Joe Burrow
7/2 (+350)
21/4 ↑ (+525)
Kirk Cousins
6/1
6/1
J.K. Dobbins
33/1
7/1 ↓
Sam Darnold
OTB
10/1 ↓
Justin Fields
50/1
12/1 ↓
Kyler Murray
28/1
14/1 ↓
Nick Chubb
8/1
22/1 ↑
Daniel Jones
14/1
50/1 ↑
Joey Bosa
50/1
50/1
Tank Dell
40/1
55/1 ↑
Deshaun Watson
35/1
100/1 ↑
Harold Landry III
200/1
100/1 ↓
Uchenna Nwosu
OTB
150/1 ↓
Justin Fields
50/1
OTB ↑
Russell Wilson
28/1
OTB ↑
Zach Wilson
100/1
OTB ↑
🎯 Named plays from Joe Duffy: The closest thing to a lock in gambling!
• Hit Chargers UNDER 🔽 to stay undefeated in football 🏈 with named plays including NFLX.
🏆 First NCAAF 🔒 named play is the Friday Night Big 12 Game of the Year!
🔥 Saturday: 4 college football Wise Guys 💡, 12 Majors 📈
💥 Sunday: 3 powerful Wise Guy bets 💡, 4 Majors 📈 in NFL 🏈
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