Superstar Joe Duffy is off a great football betting weekend and has a ton more coming up at OffshoreInsiders.com Here is a free play.

FLORIDA STATE +5 Louisville

• The turbo-charged version of short road underdogs that you have heard about on satellite radio is 824-698-44
• Home teams off bad offensive games are a go-against of 262-169-14
  • Louisville scored seven points to ND
• Fading home teams off three straight road losses is 132-90-2
• Don’t like that they are a trendy dog with 69 percent of bets
• FSU OL showing progress and with Jordan Travis at QB, he buys time with his mobility
  • Banged up but probable
• Cards literally have alternated solid defensive games with horrible ones
  • Last week allowed 12 to ND after allowing 46 to GA Tech
  • Likely to come up with a thud

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday evening football in a start time made possible thanks to the disaster that is 2020. Each team is 4-1 SU and 3-2 in the back pocket. As the over-under is concerned, KC is 2-2-1 but Buffalo is 4-0-1 to the over. In fact, each team is off their first loss of the season. Teams off a loss in a game in which they were laying at least 9.5 bounce back to the tune of 101-72-5, though only 2-5 the last seven. This includes 63-40 on the road. This super system favors the Chiefs. Teams with at least three wins and off their first loss, when it is a blowout of 25 or more points, are 0-6 ats since 1992. That would say to fade Buffalo and bet on KC. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .800 or better are 61-40-3. This would favor Buffalo.

Odds: The Chiefs opened up at -3.5 and 58, but are up to -5.5, though the total has dropped to 55.5.

Public betting percentages: As is almost always the case, the public is betting the road favorite with 64 percent of bets and 87 percent of cash on KC. A slight majority of 55 percent of tickets are on the over, with 52 percent of money on under.

Power ratings: The premier power ratings say Kansas City should be -6.5 and 50.5 with a projected final of the Chiefs winning 28-21.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found KC covering the -5.5 by 51 percent, with 62 percent going under the 55.5. Their projected final is 29-22 in favor of the road teams. The other elite simulator has KC covering 53.9 percent of the time with 56.6 percent exceeding the total. Their game projection has KC winning by an average of 32.8-26.3.

Against the spread trends: Kansas City is 8-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo is 6-2 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo 7-3 series.

Over-under trends: KC over 11-4 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Promised made, promises delivered does it again. The outlier start that could only happen in 2020 is behind us. Winning days Saturday and Sunday, including 7-1 Sunday, sweeping Wise Guys led by NFL Game of the Year Detroit in a beatdown. In fact, the only NFL winner we had to sweat was big underdog Bengals blowing a 21-point lead but holding on.

5 ET NFL side. We told you we are about to explode and here we are. Together!  Get the picks now

Literally finalizing picks, but big NFL Sunday, probably biggest of year and most likely the NFL Game of the Year is coming from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Chicago-Carolina (-1)

• Fading quality teams off win as a home underdog is 121-70-4
• Bears pretty healthy, though S Deon Bush is out
• Teddy Bridgewater most underrated QB in NFL
• Robby Anderson, DJ Moore two excellent WRs
  • 4^th NFL in yards after catch
  • RBs 3^rd in NFL in yards after contact
• RB Mike Davis with 21 broken tackles
• Bears only 5.7 yards per pass teams normally allowing 7.1 and 5.1 yards per play to 5.8
• Chicago slightly above average defense, but well below offense
  • Allow 344 ypg and get only 323
• Panthers 399.6 yards per game allow 355.6

Pick: PANTHERS -1

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Ravens (-7.5)-Eagles

• Baltimore is 4-1 SU including 2-0 road, Philly 1-3-1 SU, 0-1-1 home
• Sets up anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 142-108-11 (Eagles)
• Eagles 1-4 ats -5.8 but sets up a great regression to the mean angle about betting on bad teams 194-116-13
• Yes Jackson is one of the top road QBs, but you can’t bet retroactively and 7.5 points on the road is a ton
• Eagles allowed to have about 6,000 fans
• Admittedly our power ratings, two say the line is about right; another simulator likes Ravens and big road favorites have been good plays in recent years
• Probably short of premium play

FREE: EAGLES

Bet NFL live lines, latest odds

The bookies still believe Dallas can get it done with Andy Dalton. Or maybe they just don’t have faith in any of the other teams from the feeble NFC East.

The Cowboys were -150 favorites to capture the division going into Week 4, and their odds only slightly worsened as they move forward without Dak Prescott.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Cowboys still have relatively low Super Bowl odds, coming in at 25-1.

Despite their loss yesterday, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl LV favorites. The Ravens and Seahawks round out the top 3 on the board.

All odds are current from SportsBetting a licensed online sportsbook in Colorado.

Division odds –

AFC East
Bills -265
Patriots +230
Dolphins +2200
Jets +10000

AFC North
Ravens -175
Steelers +230
Browns +500
Bengals +10000

AFC South
Titans -110
Colts +120
Texans +800
Jaguars +5000

AFC West
Chiefs -1000
Raiders +600
Chargers +2500
Broncos +5000

NFC East
Cowboys -125
Eagles +120
Redskins +1200
Giants +3500

NFC North
Packers -330
Bears +340
Vikings +1500
Lions +2200

NFC South
Saints +100
Buccaneers +130
Panthers +500
Falcons +6600

NFC West
Seahawks -165
Rams +300
Cardinals +600
49ers +1000

Super Bowl odds –

Kansas City Chiefs 4-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-1
Seattle Seahawks 8-1
Green Bay Packers 10-1
New Orleans Saints 11-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-1
Buffalo Bills 14-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-1
Los Angeles Rams 18-1
Dallas Cowboys 25-1
Indianapolis Colts 25-1
New England Patriots 25-1
Cleveland Browns 28-1
Tennessee Titans 28-1
San Francisco 49ers 33-1
Chicago Bears 40-1
Las Vegas Raiders 40-1
Philadelphia Eagles 50-1
Minnesota Vikings 60-1
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Carolina Panthers 66-1
Los Angeles Chargers 80-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Detroit Lions 125-1
Miami Dolphins 150-1
Denver Broncos 150-1
Atlanta Falcons 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 250-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 300-1
Washington 2500-1
New York Giants 3500-1
New York Jets 5000-1

AFC Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 2-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
New England Patriots 12-1
Houston Texans 60-1
Cleveland Browns 14-1
Los Angeles Chargers 45-1
Tennessee Titans 14-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-2
Buffalo Bills 8-1
Indianapolis Colts 12-1
Las Vegas Raiders 22-1
Denver Broncos 75-1
New York Jets 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 125-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 150-1
Miami Dolphins 75-1

NFC Odds
New Orleans Saints 11-1
San Francisco 49ers 14-1
Philadelphia Eagles 22-1
Dallas Cowboys 10-1
Green Bay Packers 4-1
Seattle Seahawks 3-1
Los Angeles Rams 17-2
Chicago Bears 18-1
Minnesota Vikings 25-1
Arizona Cardinals 18-1
Atlanta Falcons 125-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-1
New York Giants 200-1
Detroit Lions 55-1
Carolina Panthers 28-1
Washington 125-1

OffshoreInsiders.com has all the winners on a daily basis! Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.

VIRGINIA -7.5 NC State at GTBets

• Third of four straight road games for UVA
• Off big upset at Pitt, play at Clemson next week
• Home favorites versus an opponent off conference win as large underdog are 122-63-2
• Virginia’s defenses numbers much better than points per game would suggest
• Allow just 2.8 yards per rush teams normally allowing 3.7 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.8
  • Too many turnovers, but these are correctable

Free pick: VIRGINIA -7.5

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Saturday, two Wise Guys and two Majors up already. Two NFL winners posted as well at OffshoreInsiders.com

With the NLCS set, oddsmakers were quick to post a line for the series, and they’ve made the Dodgers sizable favorites against Atlanta.

The initial series line from SportsBetting set L.A. as a 1:2 favorite.

NLCS Odds –

Atlanta Braves    +160    (8-5)
Los Angeles Dodgers    -200    (1-2)

In a hypothetical ALCS matchup, the Yankees would be -180 favorites over the Astros (+160). In the other scenario, the Rays would be -155 favorites over the Astros (+135).

The Dodgers started the MLB postseason as World Series favorites, and after sweeping San Diego, nothing has changed.

World Series Odds (will update after tonight’s game)

Los Angeles Dodgers     +175     (7-4)
New York Yankees     +375     (15-4)
Atlanta Braves     +400     (4-1) 
Tampa Bay Rays     +500     (5-1)
Houston Astros     +500     (5-1)

SportsBetting is also offering odds on the exact World Series matchup and outcome. The numbers suggest that the Dodgers will defeat the Yankees, or vice versa, in what would be a dream matchup for the league.

Exact World Series Outcome
Dodgers defeat Yankees     +550     (11-2)
Yankees defeat Dodgers     +550     (11-2)
Dodgers defeat Astros     +700     (7-1)
Dodgers defeat Rays     +700     (7-1)
Rays defeat Dodgers     +700     (7-1)
Astros defeat Dodgers     +750     (15-2)
Yankees defeat Braves     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Yankees     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Astros     +1400     (14-1)
Braves defeat Rays     +1400     (14-1)
Astros defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)
Rays defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)

It’s early, but Joe Duffy already has a big weekend portfolio up at OffshoreInsiders.com

MISSISSIPPI STATE +2 Kentucky

If you listen to VSIN no doubt you’ve heard them rightfully tout a “short road dog” angle. We know the software they use, BetLabs. Rest assured, it’s good software as many of my top systems originated there. But I perfect on a database that not only goes back much further, but also has enormous versatility. Using  with a Boolean algebra, I can eliminate times there are conflicting systems. Because college football has more systems pointing to home favorites than any other sport, this feature is invaluable. Actually, BetLabs also has this, but I still love the versatility elsewhere. Regardless, my turbo-enhanced version is 921-693-44. A subsystem takes it to 58 percent with a large sample size of 660-477-32.

One of our simulations gives Miss State 53.5-44.4 percent chance of covering at +2. Another a tiny edge to Miss State. Best power ratings have MSU winning by one. Granted, none of the simulations emphatically say the Bulldogs, but the fact all three at least lean that way is significant, which is why the line dropped.

Miss State wins at LSU +14.5, then loses home to Arkansas -16.5. Mike Leach is predictably unpredictable, so off a home loss, hitting the road, is when they will play best. Star RB Kylin Hill, who can also catch out of backfield. He was hurt early in loss last week.

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