Category Archives: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy is the world’s most published author on sports betting strategy discusses virtually every aspect of winning in sports gambling.

Sports Betting Watch List 6-13-07

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine
our daily news and notes on
OffshoreInsiders.com.
Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports
gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets on what to look for based on drastic
changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how
the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Mets top hitters are getting healthy. Shawn Green is
returning from the DL and David Wright is red hot.

Insight: The Mets June swoon has been a team effort—or lack
thereof. Their pitching and offense have both been dreadful. However, last year
the Mets offense was able to conceal their pitching deficiencies. Often having a margin of error is the
difference for borderline set-up men being effective and not being successful.

Shawn Green was one
of the Mets most productive hitters before going on the DL. He returns just as
David Wright is swinging the bat well. This will take some of the heat off of
slumping Carlos Delgado.

Their offense will
come around and with a larger margin of error their mediocre bullpen will pitch
better. It’s time to stop fading the Mets
and ride the domino effect.

Update: Houston ousted closer Brad Lidge
is back in a groove. He’s given up just three earned runs in his last 26 1/3 IP
and has tentatively regained the role as closer.

Insight: In the name of full disclosure, as we are finishing off
our article, Lidge gave up that third run to blow a
save. But blowing a one-run lead aside, he is pitching much better. Lidge can be among the game’s best. A reliable closer is important not just for
the obvious reasons, but also psychological reasons. Among them is that nothing can be as
disconcerting as consistently blowing leads.
The damaging snowball effect leads to prolonged slumps. If Lidge is back,
the Astros have their edge back. We look
for underachieving
Houston to finally get on a roll.

Update: Roger Clemens is back, but the jugs gun says his fastball
is not.

Insight: Clemens was so/so against an offensively challenged Pirate
team. Clemens has stated in the past he
is a power pitcher and will never be a finesse hurler. We doubt if he can adjust the way a more
willing Curt Schilling has. Ironically
because Clemens gives the Yankees some swagger, he may actually help them more
in games he doesn’t pitch.

For those raising
their eyebrows and saying how little sense that makes, be aware, we are huge
believers in the Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half mental”. This is more so in baseball where teams play
every day. Sometimes it takes either a
wake-up call or an emotional lift to turn a season around. That’s why we know from experience that
getting arguably the greatest pitcher of all time will help the Yanks even when
he’s not in the ballpark. Getting him
past his prime though could mean good investment opportunities going against
him when he pitches.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and is
the Chief Analyst for Joe Duffy’s
GodsTips.com. Since his “JD of
the ACC” scorephone days, he has been accepted as the top underdog and small
favorite handicappers in the industry.

 


Baseball Betting Crib Sheet

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows I preach
that small favorites and underdogs are where the best value can be found in
betting baseball odds. Who would have thought in a million years
that I’d be looking at Randy Johnson or the New York Yankees as undervalued?

But that’s where we are thanks to slow starts by both. One
of our credos in betting all sports is the Yogi Berra-ism
of “90 percent of the game is half-mental”. Getting Roger Clemens into the
starting rotation will pay wonders for them, not just in games he pitches.

He can be a true stopper, a pitcher who can end a team’s
funk with a pitching gem. Underachieving teams are so often buoyed by a manager
firing, major trade, or in this case, midseason free agent addition.

Admittedly, Johnson being undervalued will be
short-lived. Just as your sportsbook was releasing odds
reflective of the gambler’s belief that Johnson finally was showing his age,
the future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame has been untouchable in his last four
starts.

He’s given up four earned runs in his last 23 2/3 IP
allowing 16 hits and just one walk. His .675 WHIP in those four starts is
spectacular.

Whether it’s an overachieving or underachieving player or
team, sharp players know that over a 162-game schedule, more times than not,
they will play back to their mean. A high profile pitcher and a high profile
team top our list of current entities bettors must keep a sharp eye on.


Spurs-Suns Series Shoots Down Another Betting Urban Legend

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Over the years I’ve heard a common faulty theory
regurgitated when either a game has a large pointspread or even more
commonplace when a contest involves two teams that play opposite tempos. It entails
an if-then-else statement in which both the side and total are essentially handicapped
jointly.

“If you like the big favorite you have to like the over,
but if you like the big dog, you have to like the under,” the myth goes. Even more humdrum is “If you like the up-tempo
team to cover, you have to like the over,” and I’m sure you can figure out what
follows.

In a classic illustration, I saw this drivel rear its ugly
head on gambling posting boards before the Spurs-Suns series. Phoenix
of course plays the chaotic full-court style where the shot clock is almost
irrelevant. The Spurs play a classic
half-court style where shots are generally taken with the shot clock at single
digits. Even the newspaper hacks and
talking heads on television recited the groupthink that a fast-paced game would
benefit the Suns and a slow-paced game would be to the advantage of the Spurs.

Game 5 between San Antonio
and Phoenix ended with the side
being a push. For our purpose, that’s convenient because that was the now
infamous game in which the Suns Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended,
hence from a handicapping standpoint, the results should be thrown out.

Of the remaining five games, San
Antonio
won and covered three of them. All three went over the total. Phoenix
won and covered two, both of which went under the total. All five results, of
course, went against the conventional so-called logic.

This is consistent with my observations over the
years. Unless there is a push, there are
four possible combinations of a side and total: Team A and
the under, Team A and the over, Team B and the under and Team B and the over.
Random chance suggests the if-then-else fairy tale has a 50 percent chance of
being right because it says of the possible four combinations it will likely be
one of two possibilities. My educated observations says every time I hear this
theory espoused, one of the two alleged to be likely combinations hits less
than 50 percent of the time.

I always handicap sides and totals as separate entities. If anything, based on experience, I feel more
comfortable if I pick the ball control team to cover and the over, or the fast-paced
team and the under.

The domino effect of course is not going to be as
overwhelming as the Suns-Spurs series illustrates, but that example is closer
to the rule than the exception.

A big believer in contrarian handicapping, as explained in
previous articles, I can’t say there is necessarily such an angle here. But the invaluable lesson is to not inhibit
handicapping by subscribing to the popular fallacy.

Here is the if-then-else truth for sports bettors. If you
rid of the aforesaid robotic fairy tale, then your chances of winning are much
greater.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
which now has the best free sports gambling match-ups, free picks,
databases and more.

 


New Stats Coming to the Forefront in Baseball Handicapping

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The hottest statistic
among baseball handicappers utilized in evaluating offenses
is on base
percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS). This is not a new statistic among
sharpies, and in fact was overlooked for a few decades by baseball itself. I
first heard about it in the mid-1970s when Steven Mann, a statistician for the
Houston Astros, was touting said numerator on a radio sports talk show I was
listening to. I employed and tested this statistic to capture a few
Strat-o-Matic championships in my formative years. Who says youth is wasted on
the young?

I’ve always put forth that the proper Triple Crown in
baseball should be on base percentage, slugging average and runs produced. In that vain, the streamlined stat of OPS is
finally being noticed by the masses.

In fact, the growingly more sophisticated gaming public is
finally paying additional attention to offensive statistics. This is bad news for the books because Johnny
Q. Public used to throw his money away simply betting little more than just
starting pitcher’s ERA statistics with an extra emphasis on a hurler’s last
three starts.

According to Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com,
the online sports betting syndicate, the hot gauge now for pitchers is
comparing his batting average against (OAV) overall against to his OAV with
balls in play.

Many of the cutting edge handicappers they monitor take the
two quoted stats and compare it to the league average to find disparities. “The thought is if a pitcher’s overall
batting average against ranks much higher than his batting average against with
balls in play, he is pitching better than his stats because the fielders behind
him are not playing as well as they should be.”

Of course if a pitcher does better relative to the rest of
the league with balls in play than he does overall, the supposition among the
avant-garde gamblers is that the pitcher has benefited from good fortune. Hence
rough days lay ahead for the hurler.

McCormick says the top services parse the information to
their exact liking in their own private databases, but that Yahoo! Sports
(sports.yahoo.com) does the best job of any free public site comparing and
contrasting that day’s pitchers’ stats to both the league average and league
leader.

If there is one consideration that has seen some
depreciation in value recently, it’s the ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB:FB). Ground ball pitchers will always be more affective
than fly ball pitchers, but the statistic is no longer the silver bullet data
all but guaranteeing impending doom.

“First it was supposed to be
juiced balls then we realized it was juiced players,” says Jerry Malcolm of
CasinoBettingNews.com. “Regardless, a fly ball is not nearly as
poisonous now that the power numbers are stabilizing.”

As in any sport, the elite gamblers look beyond mere
numbers-crunchers. An uber-popular book and arguably the Bible for scrutinizing
and exploiting baseball statistics is “Moneyball: the Art of Winning an Unfair
Game” by Michael Lewis. Oh how true that title is for the gambler who masters
the mathematical art.

Joe Duffy during his Cadillac Club scorephone days developed
the reputation as the top baseball underdog handicapper in the business. His plays are now exclusive on OffshoreInsiders.com


Knowing What Really Wins in Sports is a Real Commodity

At the start of the NBA playoffs, there was no shortage of the “defense wins championships” articles. One of the toutspeak clichés is so fundamentally flawed, I can only thank them for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.

It goes along the lines of: look at the stats, scoring is way down in the postseason in the NBA, therefore defense is more important. An elite sports handicapper, I don’t consider myself an expert on commodities investments, but the basic fact is if the demand for a commodity stays the same, but the supply goes down, the value of having that commodity goes up. The more of that commodity that one has, the better off the investor is.  However, if such asset became more easily obtainable, the worth of it decreases.

That’s exactly how it is with the ability to score crucial points in the NBA playoffs. There is no question defensive intensity rises immensely in the playoffs.  The commodity of scoring points is much more difficult to come by than they are against lackluster five-cities-in-seven-nights regular season defenses.

Therefore the worth of the commodity of clutch scoring goes up in the postseason, not down.

Recent historic fact No. 1: The 2007 Miami Heat became the first team in NBA history to win a championship only to get swept in the first round the following year.  Yet defensively they were superior to their championship year, jumping from 13th in the league to eighth.  However offensively they did a freefall going from sixth to 28th, third worst in the NBA.

The Heat had two certified offensive superstars, Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal. The two played a combined 91 games this year because of various injuries and never, ever got in synch.  Wade was rushed back for the postseason and Miami’s offensive lack of cohesion was indisputable.

They were better defensively in 2007 because they had to compensate.  The end result to the better defense but much inferior offense was being on the wrong end of the historic sweep.  Oh and when the Heat won the championship last year, which team lead the league in defense?  Recent historic fact No. 2: It was the Memphis Grizzlies who set an all-time mark for consecutive postseason losses.  Yes, the league’s numero uno defense set the bar for playoff incompetence.

Do not get me wrong, defensive and offensive rankings as we have stated time and time again are extremely deceptive in football and basketball.  Points per game are much more indicative of tempo than of competence. Fast break teams will always appear “offensive oriented” and half court teams “defensive oriented” to the uneducated eye.

However there was no significant pace-of-the-game adjustment for Miami from last year to this year with Wade and O’Neal playing musical MASH unit, so there is at least an apples to apples comparison in beating live odds for the NBA.

Recent historical fact, No. 3: based on disparity in winning percentage, the Dallas Mavericks became victims of the biggest upset in NBA playoff history when they were not just beaten, but dominated by the Golden State Warriors. Said the media, this of course was the year that Avery Johnson was finally able to exorcise Dallas of the offensive mindset Don Nelson that poisoned them with for years. The transition to offensive-oriented to defensive-minded was complete.  And so was their season completed—very quickly.

Oh and the team that beat them was the worst defensive team in the NBA—Golden State coached by Don Nelson. There is no epiphany needed.  Any debate is fruitless.  The foremost reason for the Mavericks failure was that their premier offensive player Dirk Nowitzki went AWOL, while Golden State put up a clinic in outside shooting.

Anyone who tries to spin it differently, I want to book their plays.

We are, as we admitted using deceptive rankings that are based simply on points per game.  But we are using the same data the cliché mongers use in order to refute them.

However the fact is that I am anything but a proponent of a frenetic pace. A great offense in basketball means very good complimentary offensive players that can consistently score clutch baskets, and here is the kicker: in the half-court offense.

The San Antonio Spurs, contrary of the misleading rankings, fit our definition as well as any team in the NBA. The uneducated eye would look merely at points per game, oblivious to the fact they place a strict half court offense.  But with the game on the line Tony Parker getting the ball to Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili is a pretty powerful combo.  Of course, David Robinson was also part of the initial championship team.

Robert Horry is not called “Big Stop Bob” it’s “Big Shot Bob”. They also have Michael Finley and before him Steve Kerr.

Look at any of the modern championship teams.  They may play different styles, but they all have one thing in common—prime time offensive players.  From O’Neal and Wade, to Jordan and Pippen, O’Neal and Bryant, Olajuwon, Drexler and Cassell, Johnson, Jabber and a sensational supporting cast, Bird, McHale and Johnson,  Erving, Malone and Toney. They all had a lot more success in the postseason than the phenomenal defensive pairing of Mookie Blaylock and Dikembe Mutombo,  Bobby Jones and Caldwell Jones, Paul Pressey and Sidney Moncrief.

In fact, going back to the late 70s, if not well beyond, the least impressive 1-2 offensive punch from an NBA Champion would be Chauncey Billups and Rick Hamilton from the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons.  Yet anyone who actually watched that particular playoffs can attest that duo’s ability to get the big basket

Phoenix does have enormous offensive talent, but frankly will have to overcome their chaotic style of play to capture the ring. There is no question they have the substance, but may lack the style to win it all.

The simple fact is every single NBA Champion will have the extremely rare commodity of at least two legitimate big time go-to players  who can make the big shot and/or the big pass when the game on the line.

That’s a commodity that’s rare, but not as rare as the professional gambler who is conscious of this fact.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are part of the Dream Team of GodsTips  He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

NBA Playoffs Zigzag, The Definitive Answer

About this time two years ago, I watched as on one of the fine betting sites there was a not-so-subtle back and forth of the validity of the so-called zigzag NBA playoff betting system.

The method simply says go with the team off of a loss.  A critic came back after the first week or so gleaming over the fact the technique zagged and sagged more than it zigged.  It lost money. Then as the playoffs went on, the proponent got the last laugh while the cynic wrote articles on other topics telling you he is smarter than everyone else.

Having been in the industry since the 1980s and having been a supporter of computer systems since prominent statistician Dr. Mike Orkin wrote his Pointspread Analyzer software, where does the top NBA handicapping service GodsTips stand?

We agree with the theory, but less so the etched-in-stone considerations. First of all, let us give a quick refresher of the difference.  A system can be measured objectively because the parameters are concrete.  The zigzag is an example.  Going with a double digit favorite off a single digit loss would be another hypothetical in beating the NBA playoff scores.

Of course there can be modest variances depending on when and where a database gathers lines, but over any statistically significant period it does not make a huge difference.

A theory is much like a system but does not have objective parameters. Our theory is the better the team is that the zigzag system favors and the bigger the margin the loss was, the more compelling it is to “go with the team off a loss”.

True one could come up with a system to measure our upgrading of the methodology. An example would be going with a team with a winning percentage of .575 or higher off a loss of eight or more.  The problem is we believe a mental sliding scale combining and most importantly, weighing the two factors works best. It allows for a mixing and matching of the two parameters.

For example, this year as in most years, it would not apply or would only be weighed slightly if we are talking about the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. There is a reason they are called “mismatches” in basketball betting.

No. 4 versus five and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring huge first round upsets), it is weighed much heavier. Remember we told you the mocker grew conspicuously quieter as the postseason went on.  Now you know why.

It’s one of those theories that almost make too much sense. During the regular season of every sport we remind you of the Golden Rule to not merely go with the “team that needs it more” if said team is fighting just to make the playoffs.

We call attention to the fact if a team were proficient at winning “must win” games they would not be playing in must-win games late in the year.

Conversely, a one through five seed, especially as the playoffs go deeper, has shown the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall.

To the handicapper there is a titanic difference between desperate elite teams and equally desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. It’s like the difference between seeing Jennifer Lopez and Rosie O’Donnell in a string bikini.

Okay, I don’t follow the analogy myself, but the exemplification of the distinction is infallible. From a handicapping standpoint one can’t measure the success of the zigzag if Phoenix coming off a loss is given the same weight (no pun intended Rosie) as Washington or Golden State following a setback.

Likewise, the margin of the loss is applicable for at least two obvious reasons.  As we have said many times, nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen.  It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more.

Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback.

Others So to friends and foes alike of zigzag, a .700 or better team off a loss is not even close to being the same as the below .520 teams zigging. Nor is mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

can debate the “system” but we will tell you the rationale behind it has a lot of validity if and only if the caveats are utilized and the impact applied appropriately.

Blackmail, Not Just Bribery Can Lead to Pointshaving

The burgeoning betting scandal of former Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle Jr. has again brought to the forefront the evergreen discussion and debate of the frequency of game fixing and point shaving.

The answers as to the questions how common it is and by who will probably be forever elusive.  Professor Justin Wolfers, of the respected Wharton School, did a study which concludes point shaving is quite prevalent in college basketball.  We critiqued that study in another article and while we disagree with his conclusions, clearly a man of his credentials cannot easily be discounted.

But in this article we want to bring to light the fallacies in a common presumption. Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game.

Some naively believe at the professional sports level this is unlikely to happen, especially with those who affect the outcome of the game the most, the athletes.

The prevailing thought is a high-priced athlete has too much to lose and the amount of payola required would be cost prohibitive to the potential game fixer. That in theory should be true, but one would probably be giving athletes more credit for good judgment than they deserve.

But mere dollars and cents are far from the only type of inducement one could employ for skullduggery.

Talk about burgeoning scandals; is there anyone among us who doesn’t believe the steroid uproar has barely scratched the surface? What if just one influential supplier of performance enhancing drugs were a high-stakes bettor?

He’s got coveted contraband.  He’s got direct communication with significant athletes. You do the math.

Did somebody say scandal? It seems every decade or so we find out about a Madam to the multi-millionaires. Apparently the rich and powerful are willing to bequeath significant funds to acquire the services of a sweet painted lady. What might an amorous athlete being willing to do for the executive concubine service? A friend once told me “dames are trouble”. Are you getting the picture?

Do you think there may be some drug use among professional athletes? What would an athlete who wants only the best and hottest designer drugs do? A little information to crush the sportsbooks perhaps?  This may come as a shock, but I hear not all drug peddlers walk a straight and narrow line.  What kind of favors could the drug trafficker get from a desperate burnout who needs his fix? Did I just say “fix”?

But that’s not even adding blackmail to all of the above. What if a money player had overwhelming incriminating information concerning a player being involved in any of the aforementioned vices? Hush money is not cheap and it may just come in the form of a favor or two rather than in a briefcase of dollar bills.

Yet another bombshell in the news recently was the coming out book of former NBA player John Amaechi.  When the ex-journeymen admitted he was gay, it brought a lot of discussion as to the likelihood of a current athlete coming out of the closest. Current and former players, coaches and coach potatoes alike agreed an active player would risk serious ostrasization and many other ramifications to come out.

What if a gambling extortionist wanted, instead of financial shake down, some in-game kickbacks?

How about the same with a married player with an active black book—a player who wouldn’t want his marriage turned into a public and bitter multi-million dollar divorce settlement?

No, it’s not my “hypothetical confession” of how I would have bribed an athlete “if I did it”. But having been in the business since the 1980s, one does hear things.  Most, perhaps all is mere gossip and hearsay.  However, one thing I can say for certainty to those who believe professional athletes would unlikely be on the take because the risk/return factor is too great. Don’t bet on it.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, has been an expert guest on Sporting News Radio, the Gambler’s Zoo and several other network and internet radio shows.

Late Season NBA Betting

As we approach the homestretch in the NBA, we celebrate that it’s a very profitable time for sharp players. This is in no small part because the oddsmakers adjust to false public perception.  Betting urban legends are quite popular this time of the year.

As is the case in every sport, it’s the time of the season that Joeybagofdonuts looks at the playoff races and simply goes with the “team that needs it more”. Sharp players meanwhile will collect big time going with true spoilers against teams in must-win situations.

First off all let us define the terms.  A “true spoiler” is an organization that has no chance of making the playoffs and whose biggest wins henceforth can only be raining on somebody else’s parade. “We are not talking about a top level team playing spoiler against the No. 9 team in the conference” emphasizes Curt Thomas, lead NBA handicapper of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

Likewise a “must win” applies “only to teams fighting for a playoff spot, not those simply jockeying for homecourt advantage,” adds Thomas.

Remember, bad teams have players fighting for their jobs in many cases.  Fear is a great motivator and the desire to extend a seven-figure-a-year career can invigorate a player more than the thought of extending the season.

This is not necessarily across-the-board.  A veteran team such as Minnesota could have their key players thinking of simply getting the season over with.

This is why in contests involving also-rans or desperate teams we take recent form much more into consideration than we do all other circumstances.

As is the case all year, deceptive straight-up records are exploited when compared to scoring margins. However, there are a lot more outplay factors this time of the year than any other point of the season because of the aforesaid false motivation perceptions knocking the line even more out of whack.

We can’t say it enough—straight up records is the most overused statistic in ATS handicapping. Successful betting isn’t about who wins the game, but who covers the spread.  Those who keep the books in business pay so little attention to the much more significant margin statistic.

Let us move onward to more proactive betting secrets. Detroit, Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio are veteran teams that will use the late-season to fine tune for the playoffs. We will look to fade those teams as huge chalks, especially against bad teams that have shown recent competitiveness.  Again by that we mean close losses to quality teams, not necessarily straight up wins.

If we ever decided to do a sports gambling version of Snopes.com, we could start with late season NBA betting truths and myths.

In fact, lucky for you, we just did.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at GodsTips on OffshoreInsiders.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Top Betting Sites Announce Packages For Baseball Season

Address for site: www.offshoreinsiders.com

E-mail: SVincent@JoeDuffy.net

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Sports Gambling Watch List 3-27

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here is an edited look at one of the internal crib sheets
compiled on a daily basis by the staff of GodsTips.com.
It’s a proactive view of what tendencies sharpies should look for in upcoming
days.

Update: Knicks
injuries and turmoil both on rise. It is possible Quentin Richardson and David
Lee are out for the year.

Insight: We do
not subscribe to any conspiracy theories about teams tanking it. As a general
rule of thumb, the best value for teams this time of the year is with bad teams.
The quality teams are overvalued, but
Knicks are a bad team we look to fade.

Owner Jeff Dolan foolishly extended overwhelmed coach
Isaiah Thomas’ contract and coach is using injuries as an excuse for failure
rather than a rallying cry for success. Plus they have the injuries that sharp
players exploit—that is to key players, but non-superstars, injuries that sneak
under the radar: Jamal Crawford, David Lee and Quentin Richardson.

Update: The
Detroit Pistons will use the final month to fine tune.

Insight: Pistons’
fanatic Brian Gould of CasinoBettingNews.com
said that the Pistons offense is out of synch lately because of nagging
injuries. “Chauncey Billups is hurting, Rasheed
Wallace missed five games and Rip Hamilton is showing signs he needs rest,”
said Gould.

With seven of their last 12 games at home, Detroit
will be laying some generous numbers, while they work out some kinks and get
ready for the playoffs. There should be
some good opportunities to take the points going against the Pistons.

Update: Cleveland
went 8-0 when rookie guard Daniel Gibson was hurt, but are
1-3 SU since his return.

Insight: This
is another example of the importance of chemistry. Coach Mike Brown’s rotation
is going haywire trying to find the right combination. Gibson for his part has
been a shell of himself shooting just nine percent from the field since his
return.

Obviously sharp players will keep a close eye in his
progress. Yet again, it’s not LeBron
James that the wise guy focuses on, but a key player whose slumps and
contributions will be overlooked.

Update: The
four teams battling for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference
are a combined 15-33 this month.

Insight: Yet
again, like we say, one of the biggest myths in gambling is betting on the team
that “needs it more”. Any team that is fighting for a playoff spot in the
inferior East clearly has not performed during the year when it counts. True spoilers meaning teams that are out of
the playoff picture but can rain of some other team’s parade will be a bettor’s
goldmine when they play Orlando, New
York
, New Jersey
and Indiana.

Winding up another winning college postseason, Center of
the Handicapping Universe GodsTips.com
will be researching pro basketball and baseball from every conceivable
proactive angle to ensure you year-round winning.