Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

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Pittsburgh-UCLA

Pitt guard Mike Cook missed practice time this week after
playing just seven minutes in the second half Sunday because of a bruised
knee. However, he said he will play
against the Bruins. UCLA will be performing in their home state, while the
Panthers traveled 2,600 miles. Teams playing in their home state in the NCAA
Tournament are 70-15 SU.

Pittsburgh has
the size advantage led by 7-footer Aaron Gray. UCLA’s tallest starter is 6-8
Alfred Aboye, who is playing out of position.

Texas A&M-Memphis

A&M is playing a virtual home game against a Memphis
team that will travel 726 miles. The game is in San
Antonio where the Aggie football team drew 64,583 fans
against Army. What we just informed you about UCLA also apply to the Aggies:
teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament are 70-15 SU.

Memphis has
played just three games versus quality opponents in front of hostile
crowds. They lost at Tennessee
76-58, at Arizona 79-71, but
edged Gonzaga at Spokane Arena 78-77.

Vanderbilt-Georgetown

Vanderbilt has done well in revenge this year, beating
both Georgia and
Florida in second meetings after
losing the initial clash. Such applies in this game as in their season opener,
the Commodores lost to Georgetown
86-70.

Ohio State-Tennessee

On Jan. 13 these two teams met. Leading with 26.5 seconds
remaining, Tennessee missed a
pair of front ends of one-and-one situations allowing Ohio
State to escape with a narrow win
68-66.

Perhaps that’s good news for Tennessee,
which is 3-0 in rematches this year if they lost the initial meeting. The revenge victories were to Florida,
Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Tennessee
is tested, having played six of the Sweet 16 teams.

Butler-Florida

Florida has
a huge height mismatch led by top NBA prospects and likely lottery picks 6-11
Joakim Noah and 6-10 Al Horford. The
Bulldogs have no starters bigger than 6-7. Butler’s
best player A.J Graves is in a 9-for-34 shooting slump.

Kansas-Southern Illinois

Kansas won
their first two games by an average of 26 points per game. Averaging 79.5
points per game entering the tournament, the Jayhawks have averaged 97.5 in the
Big Dance thus far.

However, SIU entered having allowed just 56.5 points per
game and have surrendered a measly 49.5 in the first two games.

Matt Shaw, Southern Illinois’
third-leading scorer and No. 2 rebounder missed Sunday’s game with an ankle
injury, breaking a string of 82 straight starts. He is questionable Thursday.

UNLV-Oregon

The Running Rebels are 22-1 this year when not playing on
their opponent’s home court.

Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com
continues to be Mr. March, entering the
Sweet 16 on 6-1 Big Dance run. Check out
his premium picks on OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Major League Baseball announced that for the first time
ever, baseballs must be stored at a uniform temperature. Some clubs will be
using humidors, while all will have some kind of temperature controlled
facility.

Thanks to the thin air of Denver,
the Colorado Rockies Coors field was easily the source of the most runs of any
ballpark in the Majors for their first eight years of existence. In three of
the last four years, they fell to second. The perception is that the
significant drop in runs traces back to the fact that Colorado
installed a humidor in 2002 to store the baseballs.

The numbers support this assessment. Coors Field averages
dropped to an all-time low of 10.7 last year, as opposed to 15 runs at its peak
in 1996.

But what are the consequences for gamblers? “The intention
and likely result is uniformity,” states Cy McCormick
of MasterLockLine.com.
“The early consensus is the variances from stadium to stadium will be much less
than ever.”

Speaking of uniformity, it is also the first time teams
are mandated to use baseballs manufactured in the current year.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com thinks scoring will be down.
“The sample in Colorado is
statistically significant enough to believe the trend will repeat itself across
the board”. But he adds gamblers may not
want to forget that the ramifications of the long-overdue crackdown on steroids
will be felt gradually, not overnight as many baseball fans foolishly assumed.

“If, as widely believed, power totals were greatly bloated
because of the use of steroids, the concentrated effort to eliminate steroids
will not un-ring a bell.” Vincent notes that players who bulked up because of
years of being on the juice “were not going to become 90 pound weaklings just
because they stopped.”

Vincent believes with each offseason in which players do
not use steroids, the power totals will slowly move back to rates of 15-25
years ago.

McCormick cautions that the sharp player will have a
limited window to exploit. “If run
production is down, posted totals will quickly drop accordingly.”

“The oddsmakers know what they are doing,” he reminds us.

Going back to his “JD of the ACC” scorephone days, Joe
Duffy has been considered the undisputed king of the underdogs and small
favorites. Now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, his
plays are exclusively part of GodsTips.com.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here are some sharp player highlights from our clipboard.

UCLA-Weber State

UCLA has emphasized defense in their practices since their
first-round elimination in the Pac 10 tournament. In their first 22 games, the Bruins allowed
41.9 percent shooting, but in their last nine, opponents made 46.9 percent of
their shots.

Gonzaga-Indiana

Remember, Gonzaga is without big time player Josh Heytvelt
because of a drug arrest. He is their
second leading scorer. They lost their first home game in their last 50 without
him and the absence of the 6-11 center has forced the
Bulldogs to go with a four-guard offense.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi-Wisconsin

For those looking for a 15 seed over second seed upset,
according to Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com, “Most experts I talk to
believe Wisconsin is as vulnerable of a second seed in a long time” pointing to
the fact they are only 3-3 SU in their last six.

Jackson State-Florida

Despite their No. 1 seed, Florida
players are singing the “no respect” tune, so they may be looking to make a
statement Friday. Center Al Horford says his left
ankle is still bothering him but it’s nothing serious and he will play.

Duke-Virginia Commonwealth

VCU has top notch guards and
Duke has struggled against such teams as of late. In their current three-game
losing streak the Blue Devils have allowed 57 assists, not to mention 85 points
or more each game.

Wright State-Pittsburgh

Few teams were more drastically improved from the first
part of the year than Wright State.
They started out 5-6 including losses to Coastal Carolina and Chicago
State, not to mention getting
trounced 71-45 by LSU. They are 18-3 since, including
11-1 their last 12. A major part of the turnaround is the emergence of freshmen
Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown, two of their four
leading scorers.

Vanderbilt-George Washington

In great part due to an injury to Alan Metcalfe, the
Commodores started out 1-3 which included a loss to lowly Furman at home. They
have since beaten six ranked teams en rout to their third 20-win season in four
years.

Old Dominion-Butler

Old Dom has won 12-of-13 entering the tournament. They
defeated Georgetown 75-62. Their
slow start to the year at 12-7 was in no small part due to adjusting to the
graduation of two All-Conference players from last season.

Villanova-Kentucky

Oft injured Villanova point guard Mike Nardi
has a bone scan on his injured ankle. It
revealed nothing but a sprain and he expects to be close to full strength. Kentucky
is tested, having played 14 games versus 11 foes that are in the Field of 65.

UNLV-Georgia Tech

UNLV has a three-guard offense,
a look Tech has not seen, but head coach Paul Hewitt says his team needs not to
make adjustments.

Oral Roberts-Washington State

For those who love senior led team, Oral Roberts is for
you. Caleb Green and Ken Tutt have a combined 4,490
career points. They also knocked off No.
1 seed Kansas 78-71 in Lawrence
earlier this season.

For the best pointspread picks and the highest percentage
of winners, visit Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

While so much focus is on the Big Dance, the true sharpies
focus just as much if not more on the NIT Tournament. Often there are more opportunities because
much like in the minor football bowls, elite sports betting experts take
advantage of certain teams playing in a huge game for them against foes that
are playing in a consolation tournament.

Of course we will take a look at the personnel match-ups,
wait until the private and public databases, strengths of schedule and power
ratings are updated through the Sunday finals, latest odds and match-ups.

But here are some major bullet points of great interest to
pointspread players for NIT match-ups.

South Alabama-Syracuse

Syracuse has
made no bones about it: they won’t exactly be fired up as they believe they
should be in the NCAAs. Even head coach Jim Boeheim
said, “It will be difficult for (the players) to get geared up” for the NIT.

The Orangemen made first round exits of the NCAA
Tournament each of the last two appearances.

San Diego State-Missouri State

Often a team misses an at large bid to the big prize
because they struggled down the stretch.
Such is not the case for the Aztecs who enter this game winning 8-of-11.
Missouri State
played their worst against the best, going 1-7 against the top competition on
their schedule.

Air Force-Austin Peay

Air Force enters ice cold, having lost four straight. No team went from likely in to out quicker
than the Falcons and will face a challenge of regrouping.

Utah State-Michigan

Playing against a bigger conference foe won’t intimidate
the Aggies. They went 6-4 against teams that made
NCAA tournament, though none from BCS conferences.
It’s Utah State’s
eight straight tournament appearance, so the bright
lights will not be a factor.

Toledo-Florida State

Florida State
is 27-5 home SU the last two years. Toledo
was just 5-12 SU outside the MAC. All 12 of FSU’s
losses were to teams in the RPI Top 50 so they have
feasted on non-elite teams.

NC State-Drexel

Though Drexel is widely considered the top snub, mid-major
teams rarely look at the NIT as something as kissing their sister. Instead, they could be the proverbial team
with a chip on their shoulder. They get
an NC State team that should be tired after their near miraculous run in the
ACC Finals fell short. State does not have a lot of depth and their players
logged significant minutes.

Vermont-Kansas State

Sharp players will keep a close eye on any signs over the
next couple of days as to whether the Wildcats disappointment will be a
rallying cry or deflating heartbreak. If it’s an “us against the world,” look
out. They are the first team in the
modern era from a major conference to win at least 20 games, including 10 in
their conference, but have to settle for the NIT.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. During his days as legendary handicapper “JD
of the ACC”, he developed the moniker of Mr. March for his 18 hour work days
that have resulted in unprecedented college basketball postseason winning.

Here are some sharp player news and notes from
the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Wednesday, March 7,
2007

Providence-West Virginia

West Virginia
is 4-1 SU on neutral courts. However two of the neutral court wins were in Charleston,
West Virginia. Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com reminds us, “One of
the biggest blunders that square player makes is handicapping a neutral court
as if it is a road game.” The square may overreact to West
Virginia’s 2-6 road Big East mark.

St. John’s-Marquette

Although St. John’s
will have the closest of any team to a home court advantage, they will enter
this game without their leading scorer and rebounder Lamont Hamilton. He is a
first-team all-Big East selection.

UAB-Marshall

It’s the seventh meeting in the last four years with UAB
holding a 4-2 edge. However the teams
split this year and the six games were decided by a total of just 40 points.

Arizona State-Washington

Washington
enters with great momentum having beaten USC and UCLA. However the pressure is on as they likely
will have to win four games in four days to make the NCAA Tournament. Seventeen
of Washington’s 18 wins have come
at home. Their only win away from home
though was to ASU 66-61. This game is at the Staples
Center in Los
Angeles.

Arizona State
was competitive down the stretch losing by a combined 10 points to Washington
State, Arizona and UCLA.

Oregon State-California

The Golden Bears won both meetings, but each went to the
last shot of regulation, one going to overtime.

Richmond-Fordham

Richmond did
not play a neutral game, but went 2-11 SU on the road. Fordham enters on a four-game winning streak
in which their offense got progressively better culminating in two games in
which they shot 54.9 percent or better.

SMU-Southern Miss

Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com says the key to finding dark
horses in March is betting on teams that lost a lot of close games during the
regular season. SMU has six conference losses by five-points or less. The
Mustangs are 2-0 on neutral sites beating Illinois
State and McNeese
State.

We will keep an eye on game day injury information. SMU closed out the year without three key
players who could be back: Bamba Fall, Derrick Roberts and Devon Pearson. Fall
is their best defensive player.

St. Louis-Duquesne

After being buoyed by changing to an up-tempo attack, the
Dukes have dropped their last seven. Duquesne did win the only meeting this
year to go to 4-1 all-time in the series. Over/under bettors will look to see
which team can set the pace. Duquesne is
an up-tempo team while the Bilikens play at a snail’s pace.

Thursday, March 8,
2007

Michigan State-Northwestern

Points will be tough to come by as Michigan
State led the conference is
virtually every defensive category, only once in 31 games allowing more than 47
percent. Northwestern is fourth in points per game defense, but ninth in the
more accurate field goal percentage defense. Six of MSU’s
10 losses were by seven or fewer points.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. In his scorephone days as “JD of the ACC” he
was given the moniker of “Mr. March” for his 18 hour days and unparallel
winning.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an
ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on
overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close
scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Dance” status.

A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on
exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.

There were some trends that the research found are more in
tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience.
Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four
straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding
serve when they were the better seeded team.

However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly
more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as
frontcourt scoring ability, “star” power (if you didn’t read our previous
article, defined as “All American”). This is consistent with what we’ve
stressed for years. Having been there
and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In
other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but
maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability.

One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as
contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant
umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams
that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in
the tournament.

This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely
does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a
misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off of one and only one loss obviously are
not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as
an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship
means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the
case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field
of 65.

A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and
will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up
call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s
face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along
the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback.

Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting
public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference
tournaments.

The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling
specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply.
However, the trial and error has beyond reproach produced very advantageous
rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread
betting.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard
scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Over the years, we have written many articles exposing betting urban legends. We warned you about the guards dominate inductive non-thinking. In a football article, we enlightened gamblers of a truth that applies in all ATS sports gambling, “Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping”. Our article about how great offensive teams win big games was an epiphany for many.

Peter Tierana of ESPN.com has written a series of articles that are the “Top 10 indicators of overachievement” in the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament as well as the “bottom five” or more accurately stated: the top five indicators of underachievement.

Frankly little we read surprised us. Using objective numbers, ESPN measured “Performance against seed expectations” which simply put is a study of how often the higher seeded team wins, and what factors are most common when the lower seeded team wins.

Clients know we consider units won to be the most accurate way to measure a gambling system rather than winning percentage, because it takes sample size into consideration. We have decades of experience to prove that is more statistically reliable.

ESPN ranks their attributes based what they call PASE (performance against seeded expectations). At least from a handicapping standpoint, much like above, we consider the actual +/- wins to be the higher confidence level. Thus I used ESPN’s data but based statistical confidence using a different criterion.

Here’s a newsflash: most gamblers lose.  In a related note, the overwhelming belief is “defense wins” championships and big games. We tell you time and time again, defensive intensity rises in the postseason making teams that can score big and tough baskets considerably more important.

Where’s Richard Dawson when you need him? Survey says teams that average scoring three points more than the tourney field are +46.8 victories. It is no surprise to us the highest +/- in the study using a single attribute.

Mercy me, guess what the worst +/- in the field is? Teams that have a points allowed per game below the tourney field average are -33.6 wins. The short of it is the biggest victim of upsets: superior defenses. The biggest culprits of pulling off upsets: superior offenses. Luckily for us, the subsidize-the-books gaming public believes it’s the polar opposite.

Teams with a margin of victory of 15 points or more had 244.7 “expected wins” but 288 actual wins, a +43.3 wins ratio. Margin is so much more accurate than wins and losses because luck plays no small part in winning or losing close games. Margin of victory validates a team’s truth strength.  Of course from the gamblers standpoint, margin of victory is everything.

Tieran then did a follow-up article on “attribute pairings”. That is simply when combining two factors, what were the results.  Of course because fewer games would be involved, by and large the +/- were not as high as when only one factor was needed. However PASE scores were generally higher.

The highest PASE of them all is at .509.  It says teams that got more than 60 percent of the scoring from the frontcourt and at least one preseason All-American win at the most disproportionate rate relative to seed.

Like we said, so many teams have quality backcourts.  There are so few teams have top level front courts. But those that do will advance in the Dance.

The “attribute pairings” in a modest surprise did though produce the highest +/-.  Teams with more than four straight tourney bids and a one-game losing streak entering the tourney had 207.6 expected wins but 258 actual wins a +50.4 margin.

Not that the four-letter conglomerate needs any help from us, but ESPN Insider over the years has produced copious content of value to the sports investor. March Madness bracketology is high on the list of categories.

Be warned, the data takes a lot of time to synthesize, parse and apply to sports betting. Perhaps a better alternative is to find a professional handicapper who does it for you. Ahem.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

As you enjoy the All-Star break, the sideshows and the
manlove debates, we want to share with you our crib sheet for the NBA second
half. These are proactive trends we look
to happen, rather than react when it’s too late:

Atlanta Hawks pick up the pace: The Hawks have
played their best basketball in up tempo games. When we saw Coach Mike Woodson
bring attention to this, we researched using the most important numbers.

They are an uncanny 7-2 SU when the total is 200 or
higher. In slower paced games (199.5 or less) they are 14-29, so that stat is
big. The fact they enter the break going over 8-4 represents an effort by the
Hawks to pick up the pace. We look for Atlanta
to run more up tempo, making the over an edge to keep an eye on.

Lamar Odom and
Lakers benefit from the rest: The Lakers do not have a lot of talent beyond
Kobe Bryant, who has had to be a one-man show too often this year. Lamar Odom
finally looked like the player many expected the first 21 games of the
year. He then went down with a knee
injury. Since his return, his numbers are off: down 2.9 points from his
pre-injury and he’s shooting a horrid 39.7 percent. According to Coach Phil Jackson, Odom is
around 80 to 85 percent of his full strength.

No player will benefit from the break more than he. This is both mentally and physically. Because
he is so valuable to the depth challenged Lakers, his return to 100 percent
will be consequential and should sneak under the oddsmaker’s radar. We expect
some extra value for the Lake Show
after the break.

Mavericks will be a
value to go against: Not exactly an exclusive story—the Mavericks are
playing out of the collective skull. However, the oddsmakers noticed. Betting
on Dallas right now is like purchasing the trendiest completely sold out video
game a week before Christmas—no matter how hard you shop you will have to pay
way over market value.

As we so often state, sharp players find line value in
teams that often win without covering or lose while staying within the number. Assistant
coach Del Harris expressed merely winning the division is not the Mavs
priority. “We’re shooting for the big flag”. Look for Dallas
to pace themselves as winning games handily will carry a low priority.

They can win games effortlessly and still fail in the
wallet. God help the books if they go in a slump. Look for the Mavericks to miss the covering
the number by a small margin very often from now until the regular season
ends.

All-Star break a
Bulls market: The Bulls staggered into the break. But they also finished out with a seven game
road trip, followed by a close home loss, and then they flew through a blizzard
before fading late to Charlotte.

They are a better team than that. Few teams need the break more than they do. We
look for them to come out of the homestretch gate quickly.

Joe Duffy plays are on GodsTips.com.
He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO
of OffshoreInsiders.com, the
premier hub of world-class handicappers.