Depleted Jazz

By Marty
Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The Utah Jazz haven’t exactly been tearing up NBA hardwoods since the final page was turned on 2006.

And now they’ve added injury to insult.

The Jazz, who are 6-7 since Jan. 5, will be without their starting forwards Monday night against visiting New Jersey. Leading scorer and rebounder Carlos Boozer will miss his first game this season with an injured knee while Andrei Kirilenko is out with a sprained right ankle.

The extent of Boozer’s injury will be known after more tests are conducted. He has enjoyed his finest season at 22 points and 12 rebounds a game, which is fourth in the NBA. Boozer hurt the knee
Saturday night when he collided with New Orleans center Tyson Chandler.

Kirilenko, who missed five games earlier in the year with an injury to the same ankle, is expected to return later this week.

The injuries have played a role in the odds for Monday night’s game, but WagerWeb.com still lists the Jazz as 2-point favorites against the Nets, who broke a three-game losing streak Saturday night in Denver.

SIGH OF RELIEF IN WINDY CITY: Chicago Bulls fans must have seen the season go up in smoke when center Ben Wallace crumpled to the floor after a collision with Miami’s Udonis Haslem Saturday night.

They held their collective breath, but didn’t need to fret. An MRI on Wallace’s left knee
showed no structural damage. Wallace is listed as day-to-day and could return as early as Wednesday night, when the Bulls start a seven-game road trip against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Wallace is averaging 6.5 points and 10.1 rebounds in his first season with Chicago since signing a free-agent contract during the offseason. He is eighth in the league at 2.12 blocked shots a game.

DRIBBLES: Talk about a glorious return. Milwaukee guard Mo Williams had missed the previous nine games with a sprained shoulder, but he scored a game-high 30 points, including a game-winning running jumper with 3.l seconds remaining, in a 107-105 victory Sunday over New York. … Cleveland threw a brief scare into visiting Phoenix on Sunday, but the Suns pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 115-100 road victory. The Suns will shoot for their 18th consecutive win Monday night
in Minnesota. They are a 5-point favorites, according to WagerWeb.com. … The battered Boston Celtics welcomed the return of swingman Wally Szczerbiak, but still lost Sunday to visiting Washington, 105-91. Their 11-game losing streak is their longest in 10 years. They also set a franchise mark by dropping nine in a row at home and have fallen behind Philadelphia into last place in the Atlantic Division. … Wizards forward Antawn Jamison has certainly given high-scoring point guard Gilbert Arenas plenty of offensive help recently. Jamison has scored 69 points on 26-of-45 (58 percent) shooting in the last two games.

NBA Props

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

As
your resident Fantasy Sensei, it’s my job to provide you with tips and tricks you can use to dominate your fantasy leagues. Winning a fantasy league is great and a real good way to trash talk your friends, but at the end of the day all that smack doesn’t pay the bills. You might win $100-$200 in your league, but there is a way to use that skill to make some real money.

Most of the online sportsbooks offer what are called proposition bets for all the major sports. These are bets that are different from your standard point-spread or over/under bet in that you are usually betting on a single player to do something in a game. The skills you use to do well in fantasy (knowing playing time, hot/cold players, defensive matchups, etc.) can be applied in proposition betting as well.

There are some books (WagerWeb.com included) that
offer prop bets for individual NBA players. If you are a winning fantasy player, you can use the same stats you use to set your daily or weekly lineups to win money betting on NBA props. As an example, if you have done research and discovered that Lamar Odom has scored much better at home than he does on the road, you could possibly find a “Lamar Odom over/under x amount of points” bet on the day he has a home game and take advantage of that knowledge. In this case you’d bet Odom over whatever the amount of points is. If he was on the road for that particular game, you would bet under.

There are not many books out there that offer props that are unique to their site (many books copy other books’ lines), so it pays to research as many books as you can and have money in as many of these books with unique lines as possible. The reason to do this is you have access to as many “soft” or beatable lines as you
can. When you bet NBA props, it is very important to be able to bet them right as they get posted on the site. If you don’t get them right as they post, sharp bettors will force the book to change the original line, and it will make a less advantageous situation for you.

There are people who are very successful in prop betting, and they use the exact same skill set that any successful fantasy player would use. Defensive matchups in the NBA are extremely important and knowing which teams are stronger or weaker on that end of the court is crucial. You can study the stats for scoring defense, rebound margin, assist differential, and home/road splits and gain a huge advantage over most prop oddsmakers.

There are many soft lines posted, and the reason for that is simply because the
oddsmakers don’t have the time to do that in-depth research that a bettor might have. When there are 13 NBA games in a night, you’re talking about bets on up to 60-70 players, and when you see that many players posted, there are bound to be a few exploitable lines in there. The key to being a successful prop bettor is knowing which trends to look at (I use home/road splits, recent performance, and playing-time evaluation in addition to the defensive matchup) and taking advantage.

Before the bets get posted every day, I will set a line in my head for each player that I think will be put up. Let’s say for example, I think Dwyane Wade is going to have a total of 28 points. If I see a line like 25 put up, I’m going to jump on the over as soon as I see it. Being prepared ahead of time is critical because as I said, those lines move very quickly and you have to be ready. If I saw a 31 for Wade,
I’d pound the under.

Prop betting is becoming more and more popular as people get more involved in fantasy sports, and I think you’ll see a lot more props for all sports as we go forward. If you are prepared, know which numbers to study, and have access to the bets right as they post, you can become a big winner!

Colts Take Their Time

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

If we’re such a good story, if we’re such a hot item, then you can wait a day for us.

In essence, that’s what Colts coach Tony Dungy and his AFC champions were saying to the grumpy media types who have been up in arms over the fact that Indianapolis waited until today to arrive in Miami. The Bears? They cooperated and, like most Super Bowl teams, showed up on site, on Sunday afternoon, a full week before the big
game.

The Colts? They stayed in Indiana and jumped on a charter Monday morning.

“We understand the Super Bowl is not going to be normal. We just felt that that was the way to go,” Dungy said of the delayed strategy. “We’ll get a chance to get down there, and let the guys enjoy the city.”

Perhaps that’s the biggest reason he slowed things down. Miami isn’t the greatest place in the world to practice and prepare for the biggest game of the season, the tilt that Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite for on WagerWeb.com. There are distractions aplenty. Maybe one less day of those distractions will prove beneficial.

“Miami is a great place to visit and there are all kinds of things you can get into,” said
Bears rookie return man Devin Hester, who played at the University of Miami. “We do want to have a little fun, but be careful of your surroundings. We’re here to play a football game.”

So are the Colts, who will have many a question to answer on Tuesday, when Media Day commences and all those grouchy sportswriters can finally press record on their handhelds.

“We put our schedule together for what we thought was going to be the best for us to win,” Dungy said. “My thought was to take a couple of days away from it physically and emotionally.”

And it’s hard to argue with him. After all, the Colts, unlike the Bears, had to win three games to get to Miami. They’ve been facing critical games, week after week, for more than a month. Chicago, on the other hand, was on cruise control
leading up to the postseason, then had the benefit of the bye week, and didn’t have to travel a mile to play either of its two playoff games.

“I just want them to relax,” Dungy said.

Mission, apparently, accomplished. Now, it’s time to get to work.

HELP FOR ELI: Or so they think. The Giants, late on Sunday, named Chris Palmer their new quarterbacks coach. The former head coach of the Cleveland Browns will now be the primary tutor for struggling starter Eli Manning. Palmer has also worked on the staffs of New England, Jacksonville, Houston and Dallas.

Palmer is a decent hire, but you can look at his past results either way. On one hand, he truly helped Drew Bledsoe
while with the Cowboys, and Mark Brunell when he was with the Jaguars. Palmer worked under his current boss, Tom Coughlin, in Jacksonville, by the way.

But the jury is still out on David Carr, whom Palmer mentored in Houston. And Tim Couch, whom the new Browns staked their franchise to, was a complete bust.

Where Eli falls in that mix is anyone’s guess.

EXTRA POINTS: Maybe this is the reason we didn’t hear much from Richard Seymour this postseason. The Patriots defensive lineman will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason, but shouldn’t miss any of Coach Bill Belichick’s organized team activities. … Former Giants
running back Maurice Carthon, who was fired as offensive coordinator in Cleveland halfway through this season, could land in Arizona as a running backs coach this week.

NBA First-Half Fantasy All-Stars

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The final results have just come in on this season’s NBA All-Star voting, and while you see the typical names on the list of starters (Wade, LeBron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, etc…) for the East and West, in fantasy basketball all of these guys are pretty much doing what was expected of them. Those aren’t the guys that are going to win you a fantasy title because they give you the same great numbers year after year and you select them with your 1st and 2nd round picks. No, the players that win you fantasy titles are the ones you draft in the late rounds or acquire off free agency early in the year that become solid to outstanding NBA starters, so while you see the big names on the real All-Star squad, my All-Star team is going to look a lot different.

I’ll break these down by position because in fantasy, your lineup usually consists of point guards and shooting guards, not just “guards” like
they do in the real All-Star game. Here are the All-Stars from a fantasy perspective:

Point Guard:
Maurice Williams, Milwaukee – Mo was most likely a last-round or next-to-last round selection in most drafts, but has played like a 3rd-4th rounder. Williams was a backup last year to T.J. Ford, but became a starter this year when Ford was traded to Toronto in the off-season. Mo has been very solid across the board, averaging 17 ppg, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and just over 1 3-pointer and 1 steal per game. Unfortunately he got hurt a couple of weeks ago and it’s now looking like he won’t be back for at least another couple of weeks, so hopefully his owners can wait it out until he returns. Williams might not make the end-of-year team because the Bucks acquired Earl Boykins to fill in for
him and Boykins has played just as well as Williams did. It remains to be seen what will happen because the team now has 5 guys for 3 spots (Mo, Boykins, Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, and Ruben Patterson), but as far as the 1st half is concerned, Mo is definitely an all-star.

Deron Williams, Utah – After a rookie season where he lagged in comparison to Chris Paul, the other PG taken early in the 2006 draft, Williams has shown why he was so highly regarded coming into it. D.Will was probably taken a few rounds before Mo so he gets the second spot instead of the first on my team, but his numbers are very close to his namesake. The one area where Deron is unquestionably better than Mo is in assists, where he averages 9.1 per game, tied for 2nd in the league with Jason Kidd. The rest of his numbers are almost identical to Mo, with Mo being a slightly
better rebounder. There is no reason why Deron can’t continue this play and could take over the top spot by the end of the season.

Honorable Mention: Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix; Earl Boykins, Denver-Milwaukee; Jarrett Jack, Portland

Shooting Guard:
Kevin Martin, Sacramento – Martin is another guy like Mo Williams, who was probably drafted very late if at all, but has put up almost “real” All-Star numbers. Martin has been an outstanding shooter, making almost 50% of his shots from the field and 88% from the line. In leagues that count those two categories he has made a world of difference because he’s taking a lot of shots, enough to average over 20 points per game. Add in 1.6 3-pointers per game and 1.2 steals and you’re looking at some great
fantasy numbers. Martin’s not much of a rebounder or passer but you can get those stats from your PG and your big guys.

Mike Miller, Memphis – Miller has just become a fantasy stud this season, combining deadly long-range shooting with a new-found love for rebounding and passing. The new uptempo game they are playing in Memphis is perfect for Miller, who was probably taken in the mid-late rounds in most drafts. Previously he had been known as just a 3-point shooter but this year he has really stepped up his game, going from 1.9 per game to 2.8 this year, which is 4th in the league behind Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, and J.R. Smith. The thing that’s making Miller a much better player this year are his assists (4.4 per game) and rebounds (5.9), which are very strong in comparison to most of the other players at the position. Miller is a true swing player, playing both
shooting guard and small forward, but I put him here because there are two small forwards that I couldn’t keep off the team.

Honorable Mention: Monta Ellis, Golden State; J.R. Smith, Denver; Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia

Small Forward:
Josh Howard, Dallas – Howard is one guy on this list that might make the “real” team, but that’s more because of his defense and his team’s record. For the fantasy team he makes it because he was probably a mid-round selection who is putting up 2nd round numbers. There is only one out of eight categories where Howard isn’t putting up at least good numbers, and that’s assists, which is no big deal for a small forward. You’d like a guy to have at least 4 assists per game but when he averages 20 points, 7.2 rebounds (outstanding for a SF), 1.5
3’s made, 1.3 steals, and even gets 1 block per game, you’re not going to complain when he’s only getting you 2 assists. Howard is a nice percentage shooter also, making 46% from the field and 83% from the line, so when you add all that up, you have your starter at SF.

Caron Butler, Washington – It’s hard to believe the Wizards got this guy for Kwame Brown, isn’t it? Butler has a shot at making the East All-Stars because of his outstanding improvement and the fact the Wiz currently have the best record in the conference. This guy is probably the biggest reason for the team’s improvement, despite the heroics of Mr. Hibachi Arenas. Caron is having a dream season, averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds (the best rebounding SF in the game if you don’t count Shawn Marion), 4 assists, and 2 steals. He’s also shooting 48% from the
field and 88% from the line. Those are just excellent all-around numbers. Butler is not a big shooter of the 3-ball, so hopefully if he’s on your team you’ve got some others who can do that, but with those other fantastic numbers he’s giving you, you’re probably sitting in a very nice position in your league.

Honorable Mention: Luol Deng, Chicago; Kyle Korver, Philadelphia; Matt Barnes, Golden State

Power Forward:
Al Jefferson, Boston – It took a month or so for Jefferson to get into the starting lineup thanks to the brilliant coaching of Doc Rivers, but now that he’s there, he might not come out for 10-12 years. Jefferson has just been a beast down low, averaging 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game since December. For a guy who was probably acquired off the waiver
wire, he’s really helping your team right now and is probably the best player that didn’t get drafted in most drafts this year.

David Lee, NY Knicks – If that honor doesn’t go to Jefferson, it might go to Lee, who has come out of nowhere to average almost 11 rebounds per game, and that’s in only 30 minutes per contest. If Isiah Thomas was smart he’d be playing Lee 40 minutes per game and then he’d probably be the leading rebounder in the league. Lee’s not a big scorer yet, only averaging 11 points per game, but he averages a fantastic 61% from the field and 79% from the line, which make him a valuable member of a fantasy team. By having a guy like Lee on your team you can afford to have a couple of low-percentage scorers (i.e. Allen Iverson or Gilbert Arenas) to balance it out.

Honorable Mention: Zach Randolph,
Portland and Carlos Boozer, Utah. Both guys are obviously having great years and are very nice values compared to where they were drafted, but remember this team is about guys who are going to win fantasy titles for you, and while I’m sure teams who own Zach and Booz are doing well, there are more 1st place teams who have Jefferson and/or Lee.

Center:
Andris Biedrins, Golden State: Anytime you can draft a guy who will get you 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per game in the last round, you’ve done very well for yourself. Biedrins is the guy who fits that description this year, and while he’s fallen off a bit recently, owners who have had him since the beginning of the year are sitting pretty. It remains to be seen how the recent trade the Warriors made where they acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington will affect Biedrins, but as long as he
gets the minutes, he’ll keep producing the rebounds and blocks. He also shoots a lovely 62% from the field, so he’s like David Lee with the added bonus of 2 blocks per game.

Eddy Curry, NY Knicks: I didn’t think I’d ever see this guy on anyone’s all-star team because of his supposed attitude problems, but apparently Isiah has made one good coaching move this year. Curry’s having a career-best season, averaging 19.5 points on 59% shooting. Eddy was probably a late-round selection and while he doesn’t rebound as well as most big guys (7 per game) and doesn’t really give you any other numbers except good shooting and scoring, for his price tag he’s been a very nice value. If he could ever use that body to get some boards and block some shots he could be a real All-Star, but fantasy owners are still happy with him this year.

Honorable Mention: Mehmet Okur, Utah; Nick Collison, Seattle; Mark Blount, Minnesota; Alonzo Mourning, Miami

If you have a few of my All-Stars you are probably sitting pretty in your league and could be dominating if your stud players (the “real” All-Stars) have been healthy. The key for the 2nd half of the year is to pay attention the box scores every night and see who’s getting more playing time than they used to. That’s the way you can acquire guys ahead of your competition and stake your claim to your fantasy championship!

Formula One Changes

By Brit Fryer
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The deck was shuffled again in Formula One. So, if you haven’t been following which driver is driving what in 2007, here’s a brief overview.

At The Front
Ferrari: Finn Kimi Raikkonen (+125 to win the F1 championship on WagerWeb.com), formerly of McLaren, inherits Michael Schumacher’s car, one that won’t lose a wing or suffer mechanical failure every other race. And Brazilian Felipe Massa, who broke through in 2006, vows not to play second fiddle to his new teammate.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes: Ron Dennis’ team lured Fernando Alonso (+200, WagerWeb.com), the two-time defending world champion, away from Renault. He’ll pair up with Lewis Hamilton, last year’s GP2 winner.

Renault: Clearly fielding the dominant car the past two seasons with Alonso, boss Flavio Briatore will rely on veteran Giancarlo Fisichella. Heikki Kovalainen was promoted from a testing role to a race seat.

In The Middle
BMW Sauber: The team terminated Jacques Villeneuve last year and replaced him with Polish upstart Robert Kubica, who performed admirably. Kubica and teammate Nick Heidfeld should do fairly well in the team’s second season under BMW control.

Honda: Formerly British American Racing, Honda closed the gap in 2006. Englishman Jenson Button posted his first grand prix victory in thrilling fashion at the Hungaroring and outperformed teammate Rubens Barrichello.

Red Bull Racing: Red Bull regressed in 2006, scoring 18 less points than in 2005. David Coulthard, who earned the team’s lone podium finish last season, welcomes Australian Mark Webber, who’s trying to rebound from a disastrous
stint at Williams.

Toyota: The team with the ultimate financial backing posted one podium in all of 2006, but Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli enter their second season on Bridgestone rubber.

Williams: Frank Williams’ once-powerful team has been rubbish lately. Nico Rosberg limped through his first season in F1 as Williams totaled 20 DNFs. Austrian Alexander Wurz gets his first chance at a full-time drive.

At The Back
Spyker: In September, the former Jordan and Midland team was sold to Dutch sports car manufacturer Spyker. The drivers? Christjian Albers has never scored a point in his two F1 seasons, and Adrian Sutil has never made a grand prix start.

Super Aguri: Short on speed and just about everything else, the Japanese team retained Takuma Sato and handed the second seat to England’s Anthony Davidson, once an impressive test driver for Honda.

Toro Rosso: The Red Bull-backed team, at times, outran its big brother. Though no official announcement has been made, Italian Vitantonio Luizzi and American Scott Speed are expected to return in 2007. Remember, Toro Rosso
was lowly Minardi not long ago.

NEW DRIVES: January is the month Formula One teams show their hand.Renault and Honda unveiled their 2007 machines Wednesday — Renault the R27 and Honda the RA107. Red Bull followed with its RB3. This all came after BMW Sauber, Ferrari, McLaren and Toyota showed off their stuff.McLaren is particularly proud of its new MP4-22.

“Once we get the MP4-22 on track, the progress we can make from now until the first race will be really big,” Alonso said, “and I have no doubt that we will fight for the championship.”

The season begins with the March 18 Australian Grand Prix.

WORKAHOLIC: Seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher just can’t stay away. After announcing his retirement from Formula One last season, Schumacher is remaining at Ferrari as a consultant. He has unlimited access to Ferrari’s F1 program.

“He’ll come over whenever he wants to, and he will attend some GPs. He knows everything about racing and F-1. He will help us with our decisions,” Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo told Italy’s Gazzetta dello Sport.

Underdog Bears

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

The line has dipped since Sunday night on WagerWeb.com, which means the Super Bowl public, at least early on, is leaning towards the Bears. Sure, they don’t have the sentimental angle. That belongs to Tony Dungy. Sure, the Bears don’t have the explosive offense. That belongs to Peyton Manning.

Maybe it’s the fact that the Bears were the No. 1 seed in the NFC, with the most dominant defense for two-thirds of the season. Who knows, perhaps it’s just the 6.5 points they’re getting. Either way, there are quite a few out there who believe in the Bears.

Now that doesn’t mean Chicago coach Lovie Smith isn’t going to play up the “nobody believes in us” theory. Even if many do believe in them, Smith doesn’t want to hear it. Not yet.

“As far as us being underdogs, if you look at what all the Colts bring to the table I could see why they would make us underdogs,” Smith said. “But we’ve been in that role before, and our guys like the underdog role. I wouldn’t bet against the Bears if I were a betting man.”

Which, of course, he’s not. But it’s worth remembering when it
comes time to head to the betting window. Keep in mind, the Bears used that same motivational ploy last week, when, despite Chicago being a small favorite, most of the country loved the Saints in the NFC title game.

Nevermind that New Orleans was playing the in cold, had never won two straight playoff games and was appearing in its first championship contest. But we digress. Either way, the Bears played up that angle and that worked OK, didn’t it?

So, now it’s onto Miami, where again the Bears will be the second story. And perhaps, that’s warranted. After all, Smith is not Dungy. Rex Grossman is not Manning. Rashied Davis is not Marvin Harrison. Heck, Robbie Gould isn’t
Adam Vinatieri.

“It’s a special time,” Smith said, “and I think just having the two weeks helps you enjoy it more.”

Smith is — and will continue — to say the right things, the politically correct things. But clearly, the Bears will throw out the “disrespect” card behind closed doors. And we’ll see just how far that card will take them next Sunday.

CROWDED BACKFIELD: Jacksonville running back Greg Jones, who missed the entire season with a torn ACL, is back at work and expects to be full-go at training camp in August. Jones is a bruiser from Florida State, a definite jewel on the goal line and quite capable of breaking a few as well.

Problem is, Maurice Jones-Drew
had quite the rookie season, and don’t forget the franchise’s all-time leading rusher, Fred Taylor. But Greg Jones, when healthy, is a quality back. So much so, that Coach Jack Del Rio and Co. may have to consider dealing Taylor, the oldest and most worn down of the group. He’s also the one most likely to attract outside interest.

Clearly, it’s something to monitor during the offseason.

LATE-NIGHT PLEA: Just in case you didn’t think Eagles backup quarterback Jeff Garcia wasn’t going to shop his services around during the free-agency period, he made sure of everyone knew his plans when he announced them on The Late Show with Jay Leno.

“I’ll definitely be testing the waters,” he said. “I’ve got to see
what’s out there.”

He’s sure to find something.