NFC Championship Preview

By Chris Cluff
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Saints (11-6) at Bears (14-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday (Fox)

WagerWeb.com line: Bears -2.5 (43)

The NFC is about to have a different Super Bowl representative for the seventh straight year.

Thanks to the Bears’ overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday and the Saints’ well-grounded win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC held to regular-season form, and the top two seeds will play for the right to represent the conference in the Super Bowl in Miami on Feb. 4. The Bears will be trying to get back for the first time since winning the title in January 1986, while the Saints are seeking their first trip to the championship game.

One of those teams will become the latest champ in a revolving-door NFC that has seen six different teams go to the Super Bowl in the past six seasons: Seattle, Philadelphia, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and the New York Giants.

This NFC title game pits two rising powers — Lovie Smith’s defense-driven Bears, who are 24-8 in Smith’s two seasons, and first-year coach Sean Payton’s upstart Saints, who have made it this far for the first time in the team’s 40 seasons of existence.

The Saints have become the feel-good fairy tale of the 2006 season, representing the rebirth of New Orleans a year after the city was devastated by Hurricane Katrina. Led by Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, Payton’s team won 10 games and then beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-24 last weekend, making New Orleans the first team in NFL history to reach a conference championship game after losing 13 games the previous season.

The Saints had the league’s No. 1 offense this season, and McAllister showed against the Eagles that he is completely back from a torn ACL that cost him 10 games last season. He ran all over the Eagles, gaining 143 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

“Our No. 1 concern is stopping Deuce McAllister,” Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher said. “We want to stop the run every week. So he is our main concern right now, especially after what he did last week. When they throw the ball, we’ll rally to it and hopefully make the tackles. We have got to stop the run. Reggie is an explosive guy. He catches the ball well, and he’s pretty good in the open field. So we’ve just got to try and get 11 guys to the football and make some plays.

“It’s a big challenge for us, the things they do on offense,” Urlacher said. “They move the ball around a lot. They have a great quarterback, pretty good running backs, good receivers and a good offensive line. It’s a huge challenge for us.”

The Bears survived their first challenge against the Seahawks, escaping with a 27-24 win when Robbie Gould nailed a 49-yard field goal in overtime. The win was Chicago’s first in its past three home playoff games, including a 29-21 loss to Carolina last postseason.

Embattled quarterback Rex Grossman played well enough against Seattle, hitting Bernard Berrian with a 68-yard touchdown pass and throwing for 282 yards on 21-of-38 passing.

Many Chicago fans had been concerned about his uneven performance during the season and were worried he might hurt the Bears in the postseason. He did turn the ball over twice against Seattle, throwing an interception and fumbling, but he made big throws when he had to, like the third-down, 31-yard strike to Rashied Davis in overtime that set up Gould’s field goal.

Smith has defended Grossman and stuck by him all season, and Urlacher did the same this week.

“Rex was 14-3 at the start of this year. I don’t know how many guys in the NFL can say that this season,” the All-Pro linebacker said. “I don’t care what his numbers are, what people write about him. He’s 14-3. That’s enough said for me. I’m just tired of people talking about him, especially our media around here. The dude has won 14 games at the start of this year. That’s pretty good if you ask me.”

So is Grossman’s supporting cast, which includes a strong running game. Thomas Jones ran for two touchdowns against the Seahawks, and he and Cedric Benson will need to play well against the Saints to take pressure off Grossman.

The Saints have played well on the road, going 6-2, but their defense has been prone to surrendering big plays; the Eagles struck with a 75-yard touchdown pass from Jeff Garcia to Donte’ Stallworth and a 62-yard scoring run by Brian Westbrook. With that in mind, this shapes up as a similarly offensive game.

“This is the matchup we wanted,” Chicago cornerback Nathan Vasher said. “It’s great for us, great for TV, everything. We wanted to see the highest-seeded team and beat the best.”

SAINTS AT A GLANCE
Offense: 391.5 yards per game (first in NFL). Passing: 281.4 (first). Rushing: 110.1 (19th).
Defense: 307.3 (11th). Passing: 178.4 (third). Rushing: 128.9 (23rd).
Individual leaders
QB Drew Brees: 64.3 percent, 4,418 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
RB Deuce McAllister: 1,057 yards, 4.3 average, 10 touchdowns.
RB Reggie Bush: 565 yards, 3.6 average, six TDs; 88 receptions, 742 yards, two TDs.
WR Marques Colston: 70 receptions, 1,038 yards, eight TDs.
WR Devery Henderson: 32 receptions, 745 yards, five TDs.
K John Carney: 115 points, 23 of 25 field goals.
KR Michael Lewis: 24.7 average.
PR Reggie Bush: 7.7 average, one touchdown.
LB Scott Shanle: 98 tackles, four sacks.
LB Scott Fujita: 96 tackles, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions, seven passes defensed.
DE Will Smith: 10.5 sacks.
DE Charles Grant: Six sacks.
CB Mike McKenzie: Two interceptions, 10 passes defensed.
Injury report: TE Mark Campbell (knee), WR Joe Horn (groin) and SS Omar Stoutmire (hip) are questionable.

BEARS AT A GLANCE
Offense: 325.0 (15th). Passing: 205.1 (14th). Rushing: 119.1 (15th).
Defense: 294.1 (fifth). Passing: 194.8 (11th). Rushing: 99.4 (sixth).
Individual leaders
QB Rex Grossman: 54.6 percent, 3,193 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions.
RB Thomas Jones: 1,210 yards, 4.1 average, six TDs.
RB Cedric Benson: 647 yards, 4.1 average, six TDs.
WR Muhsin Muhammad: 60 receptions, 863 yards, five TDs.
WR Bernard Berrian: 51 receptions, 775 yards, six TDs.
TE Desmond Clark: 45 receptions, 626 yards, six TDs.
K Robbie Gould: 143 points, 32 of 36 field goals.
RS Devin Hester: 26.4 on kickoffs with two TDs, 12.8 on punts with three TDs.
LB Brian Urlacher: 142 tackles, three interceptions.
LB Lance Briggs: 134 tackles, four forced fumbles, two interceptions.
CB Charles Tillman: 81 tackles, five interceptions, 14 passes defensed.
CB Ricky Manning Jr.: 53 tackles, two sacks, five interceptions, 10 passes defensed.
DE Alex Brown: Seven sacks, two interceptions.
DE Mark Anderson: 12 sacks.
Injury report: WR Mark Bradley (ankle) is questionable and DE Adewale Ogunleye (quadricep) is probable.

Best bet: The Seahawks gashed the Bears on the ground, and the Saints will follow suit while also forcing Grossman into key errors. New Orleans, 31-24.

Up-And-Down Newcastle

By Tim Robertson
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

On Tuesday, everything was looking up for Newcastle.

They were over the worst of a savage injury list which robbed them of virtually the entire first team for several months.

They were riding high after coming from behind to beat Tottenham away over the weekend, thanks in part to a stunning goal from Obafemi Martins.

And they were looking forward to an FA Cup third-round replay at home to Birmingham — a game they were overwhelming favourites for.

Fast forward to Wednesday evening, and it all came crashing down as Newcastle were torn to shreds in a 5-1 defeat to their Championship opponents.

Birmingham was ahead in the opening five minutes, and Newcastle never offered a hint that they were going to turn it around.

Magpies boss Glenn Roeder, so glowing in his praise of his squad in the days leading up to the game, was as stunned as anyone after the game.

“I apologize to the fans,” he said. “I think apologies are due after such a lack of performance from everybody. I certainly had no indication there was going to be a performance like that — this was the same 11 players who beat Tottenham on Sunday.

“We never got going all night and in the end we have been badly punished. It was just a rank bad performance and a humiliating defeat at home.”

The rapid change in fortunes summarizes Newcastle’s inconsistent season so far.

Whenever things have seemed at their worst — such as their grim run of results in October — something has come along like the impressive 1-0 UEFA Cup win at Palermo to lift the gloom.

Whenever things are going well — see the rapid rise up the table in December — the balloon has been just as quickly burst, as happened in the 3-0 loss to Everton.

Roeder, an unlikely man to fill the Newcastle hot seat — few chairmen are as trigger happy as Freddy Shepherd — has done well to keep on an even keel through the chaos, and he won’t panic after this defeat — which may even help his small squad in the long run by reducing the fixture congestion.

But he knows there is much work still to be done.

Inept defending cost Newcastle dear on Wednesday, as has so often been the case in the league. It is the area where the injury problems still run the deepest and where the squad is too short on quality even when fully fit.
Roeder said after the Spurs game that he would not swap goalkeeper Shay Given for any other custodian in the Premiership, but that sentiment is of no use to anyone if the Irish international is not afforded some basic protection.

Given would probably swap his defense for anyone but equally inept West Ham right now.

Good news then that it is the hapless Hammers who are due at St. James¢ Park on Saturday.

Even coming off the humiliating loss, Newcastle should be backed to beat Alan Curbishley’s side.

The manager will demand a response from his team and should get it against his former team.

West Ham remains one of three teams — the bottom three, in fact — yet to win away, which is the quickest explanation as to why WagerWeb.com offers them as outsiders at +333.

It will be all doom and gloom in Newcastle on Thursday morning on the back of a stunning defeat, but Saturday is a whole new day. What a difference one of those can make.

Watford’s Woes

By Tim Robertson
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

It’s tough trying to sign new players when you appear to be on a one-way street to relegation, but Watford are having problems persuading their best player to go.

The Hornets are 10 points adrift of safety, with just 12 from 21 games this season, and while Aidy Boothroyd’s side has shown plenty of spirit and endeavour, there has been none of the quality needed to survive in the Premiership.

That, you would think, would give star striker Ashley Young every excuse he needed to leave Vicarage Road.
Yet the 21-year-old has rejected the chance to even talk to West Ham after Watford accepted a £9.65 million offer for the youth international on Monday.

The fact that West Ham are themselves embroiled in a relegation battle perhaps made Young’s decision a little easier, but the Hammers’ resources mean they have every chance of pulling clear. Watford do not.

It may be that Young is waiting for the likes of Tottenham or Aston Villa to make good on their reported interest, but as welcome as it might appear at first, his decision to snub West Ham does Watford no favours.

Boothroyd has repeatedly said he would not sell Young until the player told him he wanted to go.

Only last week he said: “There are players out there who have gone for £8m-plus who do not have what he has.
shley is the trump card in the Premiership. There are not many players outside the top four clubs who are better than him.”

Yet the young manager would gladly have swapped Young for a fat cheque from Upton Park.

Young has scored only four goals in 23 appearances this season. For a club which has lost Marlon King to a season-ending injury, that is not enough.

Young’s value is all in his potential, and that is a luxury a club like Watford cannot afford to invest in right now.

The nearly £10 million West Ham were offering would be of far more use spent on three or four players who could strengthen their squad and help them build, if not for a survival battle, then for another promotion campaign next season.

Whether Watford get another offer to match West Ham’s is in doubt.

Tottenham are believed to have made an approach, but offered only a fraction of the sum West Ham were ready to spend, instead including defender Calum Davenport and winger Wayne Routledge – who is on loan at Fulham – as part-exchange.

But that deal was a non-starter as neither Davenport nor Routledge were willing to climb aboard Watford’s sinking ship.

Aston Villa has Randy Lerner’s millions to spend, but Manager Martin O’Neill has insisted he will not be duped into paying over the odds just because selling clubs know of the financial backing he has.

O’Neill can get another look at Young on Saturday when Watford visit Villa Park. Young will no doubt be in the starting 11, but he will struggle to make much impact with quality support, and that is why WagerWeb.com has Watford as +450 outsiders to grab all three points.

The odds on Watford having added any of that much-needed quality by Saturday also lengthened on Monday when it was confirmed that Fulham striker Collins John has joined the list of players to reject a move to the Hertfordshire club.

The Cottagers accepted a £3.25 million bid for the striker, but the Dutchman promptly rejected the move even though he has been told he has no future at Craven Cottage.

Boothroyd said: “I’ve spoken to his representatives, and he said at this point in time it’s a no.

“I think there is still some hope but I’m looking at other options.”

Life isn’t easy at the wrong end of the table.

Horses To Watch

Horses worth watching compiled by handicapper/racing writer Greg Melikov won three races and finished second four times since Dec. 17.

AQUEDUCT

Ghost Mountain: Tracked pace in third more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied inside for the drive, steadied in upper stretch, altered course to outside, finished gamely to make up more than 2 ½ lengths and lost by a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 12.

FAIR GROUNDS

Thunder Mission: Lunged at break, spotted field five lengths early, trailed by 10 lengths after a half-mile, advanced on turn, steered out from fifth in stretch, closed fast to make up seven lengths and lost by 1 ½ lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 13; ran final quarter in 24.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Wild Holly: Broke last from Post 10, raced seventh early, steadied on first turn, dropped to eighth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out for drive losing ground from fifth to sixth, closed well to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths in stretch and lost by three-quarters of a length and a nose at 1 1/16 miles on the turf Jan. 14; ran final 2 ½ furlongs in 29 4/5.

LAUREL

Cole’s Player: Raced fifth early, shuffled back nearing three-eighths pole, dropped to sixth more than sixth lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in two path in stretch, steadied when blocked late, made up five lengths and finished fourth, beaten less than 1 ¼ lengths at seven furlongs on Jan. 14.

SANTA ANITA

Firebird Sweet: Broke last, trailed by more than 11 ½ lengths after six furlongs, rallied five wide from 12th to seventh into stretch, closed gamely to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and lost by a head at 1 ¼ miles on the turf Jan. 13.

TURFWAY PARK

Hum That Tune: Raced more than 10 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, rallied four wide on far turn to fifth entering stretch, finished fast late to make up nearly four lengths and lost by a neck at a mile on Jan. 12.

Stout Colts Defense

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

Larry Johnson came and went. Jamal Lewis, too. Two pretty good running backs. Two pretty good rush offenses. Two pretty good teams — Kansas City and Baltimore — headed home early.

But on Sunday, the suddenly stout Indianapolis Colts defense will face a dynamic duo at running back. New England’s Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney figure to test Indianapolis in every way imaginable. Inside, outside, running, receiving, you name it.

Still, the Colts are -3 on WagerWeb.com.

“We’re playing better,” Colts coach Tony Dungy said. “We’re tackling a little bit better. We’ve always had a pretty good rush in the long-yardage situations, but in the third-and-5, third-and-6, we’ve tackled the underneath throws a little bit better.”

As evidenced by the fact that Indianapolis’ opponents are just 3-of-22 on third-down conversions this postseason. Not bad for a defense that was simply getting gashed by non-playoff teams like Jacksonville last month.

“It’s not the people, it’s not the scheme,” Dungy said. “It’s doing your job on every play.”

But, surely, it helps that safety Bob Sanders is back on the field. After surgery on his right knee, Sanders has lit a fire under this unit. Everything he seems to do lately, he’s been doing well. When he blitzes, he gets to the quarterback. When he roams the middle, he stops the run. When he drops in coverage, he breaks up passes.

“Since I’ve been back, it seems like the guys have a lot more energy,” Sanders said. “But we’re in the playoffs, so that may be it, too.”

Ah, but the latter part of that theory hasn’t held much weight in Indianapolis, Bob. The Colts didn’t have much energy in the divisional round loss to the Steelers last season, did they?

Either way, something’s going right these days. Whether it’s Sanders, whether it’s an intense playoff focus, whether it’s simply the fact that the Colts are tired of getting kicked around this time of year, Indianapolis is to reckoned with, no matter how lethal Tom Brady and Co. can be in January.

“We’re having fun,” Colts linebacker Cato June said.

How much longer that lasts remains to be seen.

FATHER AND SON: The Dolphins can do a lot worse than Mike Shula as the replacement for Nick Saban. Shula — who had to assume suspended scholarships and an overall messy situation yet still won the Cotton Bowl two seasons ago and put the Crimson Tide in the Liberty Bowl this season — got a raw deal at Alabama and may need an NFL gig to show the world he can recover.

Now, taking a job that his father, Don, made famous won’t be easy. But if he can survive a position that Bear Bryant held, he can do anything. Shula interviewed in Miami on Tuesday.

“He’s got a lot of his dad in him,” Dolphins chief executive officer Joe Bailey said, “very, very smart, very assertive, very firm.”

Very available, too.

EXTRA POINTS: New Giants general manager Jerry Reese said running back Tiki Barber would be welcomed back should he decide to unretire. Reese would be better served finding someone in the free-agent market to compete with backup Brandon Jacobs, who doesn’t seem ready to handle the full-time role just yet. Barber isn’t coming back anytime soon. … Chicago defensive end Adewale Ogunleye (quadriceps) is practicing with the team and should start in the NFC title game against New Orleans on Sunday. The Bears are -2.5 on WagerWeb.com.

Suns Lose Thomas

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

It seemed as if nothing could go wrong with the Phoenix Suns this season. They have, after all, won 10 consecutive games, mostly by double-digits.

But they have taken a bit of a hit. Backup center Kurt Thomas will be out for 4-6 weeks with an elbow injury. He hyperextended the elbow in the first quarter of Monday’s win at Memphis.

Thomas is averaging 5.7 points and 5.7 rebounds a game this season.

The Suns must get along without him Wednesday night in Houston. WagerWeb.com lists Phoenix as a 5-point favorite. The Rockets will be playing the second of the toughest back-to-back games one can imagine in the NBA these days. They lost to Dallas, 109-96, Tuesday night, despite a 45-point effort by guard Tracy McGrady.

WELCOME, C-WEBB: Can Chris Webber rejuvenate the Detroit Pistons?

We won’t find out much Wednesday night.

The man who returned home will emerge from the bench and is expected to play only a few minutes at home against slumping Utah, which is a 2.5-point underdog, according to WagerWeb.com.

Webber made it official Tuesday when he signed a free agent contract with Detroit. He will play center for the Pistons after spending the vast majority of his career at power forward.

“I made the decision to come here based on (Pistons president) Joe Dumars, on coach (Flip Saunders) and the team,” Webber told the Detroit News. “I just feel renewed. I haven’t felt this good about the game in a long time. You know, I’m excited to be coming home, but I am more excited to be on this team. It would have been no fun to come home and play on a bad team.”

The 34-year-old Webber averaged 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds a game in Philadelphia last season, but reduced playing time and nagging injuries have cut those numbers in half this year.

“Any time you get a guy who has something to prove, you are getting him at his best,” Dumars told the assembled media at a press conference Tuesday. “He is coming back to Detroit with a lot to prove, basketball-wise and otherwise. You know, watching him play last year, he’s not the high-flying guy he once was, but he is still so much better than most of the guys at his position.”

The Pistons, who lost to Miami in the Eastern Conference finals last season, have slipped into second place in the Central Division, 1 ½ games behind Cleveland.

DRIBBLES: The return of guard Quentin Richardson from injury has allowed New York coach Isiah Thomas to play the starting lineup he envisioned before the season began. Richardson, however, will take a seat down the stretch while highly productive Jamal Crawford plays. WagerWeb.com lists New York as an 8-point underdog Wednesday night in Washington. … Oft-injured Cleveland off-guard Larry Hughes has been shooting miserably. He has 8 of 38 (21 percent) from the field in the last three games. He hopes to break out Wednesday night in Portland, where the Cavaliers are 3-point favorites, according to WagerWeb.com. … The Phoenix-Houston game isn’t the only featured attraction Wednesday night in the NBA. WagerWeb.com lists the Los Angeles Lakers as 8.5-point favorites at San Antonio.

Lost Season For Liverpool?

By Tim Robertson
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Liverpool have had the sort of week that can define a season, and it did not go well.

In the space of four days, the Reds twice lost at home to Arsenal — first exiting the FA Cup at the first hurdle in a 3-1 loss, then suffering a dramatic 6-3 defeat to a young Gunners side in the Carling Cup quarterfinals.

Barring an incredulous repeat of their Champions League victory two years ago — they must beat reigning Cup holders Barcelona to progress — Liverpool’s hopes of silverware are over for another season — but worse, injuries suffered this week will put a big dent in their bid to hold on to a top-four place in the Premiership.

Both Mark Gonzalez and Luis Garcia were carried off on Tuesday night. Gonzalez will be out for at least three weeks with a damaged shin, but Garcia’s injury was far more serious and he will not play again this season.

That will deny him the opportunity to play against former club Barcelona next month.

Losing the versatile Spanish international is a big blow for Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez, who has asked his players to rebound with a big victory away at Watford on Saturday.

“I hope the result will galvanise everyone at the club, we must concentrate on the Premiership and be firmly focused on what is ahead,” he said. “We can analyse what has happened in these last two games and use that to our benefit in the future.

“The players now understand how important the Premiership is, and we will be ready to face Watford.”

With confidence heavily dented and an away record that hardly boosts confidence — Liverpool have won three and drawn two of 11 contests on the road — the Reds face the very real prospect of an upset at Vicarage Road.

WagerWeb.com still heavily favours Liverpool at -200 compared to +500 for the Hornets, but Watford played well in a 2-0 defeat at Anfield earlier in the season, and the relegation-battlers are likely to come at Liverpool — a recipe for success against a side on edge.

That defeat at Watford could even be contemplated shows how far Liverpool have fallen since preseason predictions that they would challenge for the title.

In the wake of Tuesday’s loss, Benitez admitted the club were still miles behind their rivals in building a competitive team.

“We are also looking for young players, but Arsene Wenger has been working on this for 10 years, we have been doing it for just a couple,” the Spanish coach said. “But we need to keep trying our best in the market and work quickly if you have the money.

“And if you have money, then you must work at bringing in the best young players. … If you want top-class players you must spend money, not only at senior level but at youth level too.”

Benitez has been busy trying to put that into practice this week, sealing an 18-month loan deal for Argentinian defender Emiliano Insua, a six-month loan for young Italian goalkeeper Sebastian Padelli, as well as pursuing the signing of 20-year-old midfielder Sebastian Leto from Lanus in Argentina.

But they are players for the future.

This season is already looking like another lost campaign for Liverpool.

Women’s Aussie Open Preview

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

If the Russians were this superior to the Americans at something more important during the Cold War, every backyard would have had a bomb shelter.

While eight of the top 13 seeds in the Australian are from Russia or former Soviet Union territories, the United States was shut out of the seedings completely. In fact, nobody is even close.

Venus Williams has withdrawn from the event, but she no longer rates. And sister Serena is now ranked 95th in the world. She seems to have lost interest in tennis completely.

What really weakened the field was the withdrawal of top-seeded Justin Henin-Hardenne, who is skipping the event for family reasons. That leaves Russian Maria Sharapova as the No. 1 seed. WagerWeb.com lists Sharapova at +225 (2.25-1) to snag the title.

The cream of the women’s crop has been bunched by bettors. Frenchwoman and defending Australian Open champ Amelie Mauresmo, who has slid up to the second seed, is at +350 (3.5-1) with fourth-seeded Belgian Kim Clijsters next at +500 (5-1).

A strong bet might be third-seeded Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova, who has yet to be recognized for her talents. WagerWeb.com lists her only at +2000 (20-1) despite a higher positioning than fifth-seeded Nadia Petrova (+1400, 14-1), sixth-seeded Martina Hingis (+1800, 18-1) and even 10th-seeded Nicole Vaidisova (+1600, 16-1).

One relative long shot who has also not earned the respect of bettors is eight-seeded Swiss Patty Schnyder (+8000, 80-1). If Schnyder upsets Sharapova in an expected quarterfinal showdown, she’s capable of winning the championship.

Hingis faces a tough draw. She meets 2005 Melbourne Open semifinalist Nathalie Dechy of France in the first round and will likely face Clijsters in the semifinals.

The withdrawal of Venus Williams with a lingering wrist injury might still leave her sister as the top American hope based on talent along, though several Americans are now ranked ahead of her, including Meghan Shaughnessy (No. 37), Shenay Perry (44), Jamea Jackson (45), Venus (46), Vania King (60) and Laura Granville (68).

Perry, in fact, is scheduled to be Mauresmo’s first-round opponent (victim?). Serena Williams, meanwhile, is on a collision course with Petrova in the third round.

Russians everywhere. But at least they’re only armed with tennis rackets.

Men’s Aussie Open Preview

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

One might ask why they bother playing out the men’s draw of the Australian Open.

Well, it gives a bunch of guys some exercise. And, hey, second place is nice.

The champion is all but a foregone conclusion. Sensational Swiss Roger Federer will be shooting for his 10th Grand Slam title. WagerWeb.com lists him at -300 (1-3) to achieve that goal – and for good reason. The only time he seems to lose, particularly in Grand Slam events, is to clay court specialist Rafael Nadal in the French Open.

Federer is arguably the most dominant player in history for two reasons. One is his undeniable talent. The other is that compared to other eras, such as the 1970s and ’80s, when Bjorn Borg, John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors and Ivan Lendl graced the courts, there is little premier competition these days.

Federer should breeze through early play, though U.S. Open semifinalist Mikhail Youshny might await in the third round. Federer might also struggle against likely quarterfinal opponent, Marcos Baghdatis, a surprise finalist a year ago.

WagerWeb.com posts the second-seeded Nadal at +600 (6-1). He is not nearly as dominant off clay and is on a collision course with Britain’s tough Andy Murray in the fourth round. James Blake, the top American hope along with Andy Roddick, and two-time Grand Slam winner Lleyton Hewitt also loom in the bottom quarter of the draw.

The inconsistent Roddick might be overrated a bit at +1200 (12-1), especially considering he is seeded sixth. Third-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko could prove a stronger bet at +2000 (20-1). The same holds true for fourth-seeded Croatian Ivan Ljubicic (+2800, 28-1) and the fifth-seeded Blake (+2000, 20-1). Eighth-seeded David Nalbandian (+2000, 20-1) has risen quickly through the ranks.

Last year, Nadal and Murray were the lone players to defeat Federer, who compiled a 92-5 record and appeared in all four Grand Slam finals and won three. He was the first player since Aussie great Rod Laver in 1969 to accomplish that feat.

The toughest first-round matchup among the contenders belongs to Blake, who is slated to meet former top-ranked Carlos Moya. Roddick would be severely tested against likely third-round foe and 26th-seeded Russian Marat Safin, who won the 2005 Australian Open.

Safin, however, must overcome young German sensation Benjamin Becker in the first round. Becker rose a whopping 419 places to No. 58 in the world in 2006.

Federer? Is he more likely to lose to injury or an opponent? Probably an opponent, but it’s close.