Category Archives: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy is the world’s most published author on sports betting strategy discusses virtually every aspect of winning in sports gambling.

Betting the Bowls Greatest Hits

We have written many bowl articles over the years that have led to big winnings at the expense of the books.  Here are some of the most important elements to remember and what separates the top sports handicappers from the absolute squares.

The Dictionary as a Handicapping Tool: For whatever reason unbeknownst to sharp players, so many gamblers put too high a price on road record in picking games on a neutral field.  A neutral game is just that—no more a road game than a home game.

Ticket Sales: We do pay close attention to how much of their allotments a team sells of their tickets.  However, it’s not just for what many would consider the obvious reason—which team could have more of a “12th man” cheering section.

One of the keys for a handicapper is to distinguish which teams are merely in a consolation game and which consider their postseason contest to be significant. Years of study has shown us it’s rare when a bowl is big for the fans but not for the players and visa versa. This is especially so when ticket sale discrepancies are not explained by each team’s proximity to where the game is being played.

So in short, unless a bowl is essentially a geographic home game for one squad, if one team sold 20,000 tickets and the other 4,000, it’s a strong sign the game is much more important to the former school.

Long Layoffs: Another myth is the proverbial “go with the team that enters the preseason hotter”. The long layoff hurts teams that had momentum going and gives squads that finished on a skid time to make adjustments.

Leave Conference Bowl Records for the Media: Don’t go too overboard looking at early bowl conference performances when handicapping the later bowls. Quality of competition, low sample size and so many other factors go into which conference is 3-0 and which is 0-3 in bowl games.  Don’t overlook all other factors and assume how one or two teams from a conference does early is more accurate than full season strength of schedule ratings.

If anything, the bowls have a few more “don’ts” for the postseason as the bowls bring out some of gambling’s top myths.  But for the most part, everything that works in the regular season applies in the postseason with some adjustments made for the so-called intangible factors.

Power ratings we use are adjusted as bowl season goes on.  However proper, not reactionary changes are made.

For more information: Check out the sports betting tips videos and exclusive sports handicapping podcasts

SEC Basketball Notebook

SEC Basketball Notebook

By Randy Rosetta
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl is a media favorite most of the time, a walking quote sheet in a nice suit who never shies away from a microphone or camera.

So when he bristled at a television reporter earlier this fall, you knew something was up.

The source of Pearl’s angst was a question that implied the Memphis basketball program was the state’s best. Pearl deftly avoided an answer, but he won’t have to tonight when the 16th-ranked Tigers invade Thompson-Boling Arena.

Memphis topped the Vols last season, 88-79, in the first game of a 17-game series after a four-year hiatus. By season’s end, both teams were among the nation’s best with the Tigers gaining a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed and Tennessee a No. 2.

Both teams look much different this year, though. This is a perfect chance for the revamped Vols to make a statement with three straight non-conference games looming in the next few weeks: Western Kentucky in Knoxville, vs. Oklahoma State in Nashville and then back home against Texas.

Junior guard Chris Lofton is Tennessee’s leader with 18.6 points a game (second in the SEC) and 3.8 3-pointers made per contest. Lofton is lapping the field in 3-pointers made (30) and attempted (62), and has teamed with senior Dane Bradshaw (7.4 points, 4.6 assists per game) to give the Volunteers a steady backcourt presence.

The tempo should be revved up tonight, as UT is forcing 23.8 turnovers a game (most in the SEC) and has pestered seven opponents into 20 giveaways or more. Memphis foes have coughed the ball up just over 20 times a game, and the Tigers aren’t shy about launching from 3-point range, with nearly 40 percent of their field-goal attempts coming from outside the arc.

Memphis is a 1-point favorite on WagerWeb.com, and that seems about right since 13 of the previous 17 games between the Tigers and Vols have been decided by 10 points or less.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: It turns out the younger half of the Hansbrough brother basketball tandem isn’t bad, either. Bulldog freshman Ben Hansbrough, the younger brother of North Carolina star Tyler Hansbrough, was named the SEC Freshman of the Week after hanging up 23 points, 8 assists and 3 steals in his first start against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Hansbrough torched the Islanders by hitting 6-of-7 field goals, 5-of-6 from 3-point land and 6-for-6 at the foul stripe. He also had 15 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists against Charlotte as Mississippi State bounced back from consecutive losses to Winthrop and at Clemson. Hansbrough and sophomore Jamont Gordon (16.7 ppg, 4.8 apg) have helped stabilize the Bulldogs’ ball handling, as MSU has 44 assists and 40 turnovers in the last three games after struggling with 36 assists and 60 TOs in the first three games of the year.

LSU: The Tigers got a big week off to a good start by downing No. 6 Texas A&M 64-62 Tuesday in ninth-ranked LSU’s first victory in a top-10 matchup since a 66-65 win over Tennessee in 1981. The Tigers also ended the SEC’s 10-game drought against ranked foes this season as junior center Glen Davis notched his 43rd career double-double with 24 points and 10 caroms. Davis leads the SEC in scoring with 19.7 points a game and ranks second in rebounding with 9.8.

OLE MISS: At 7-1, the Rebels are off to their best start since 2000-01 under first-year coach Andy Kennedy. Ole Miss junior guard Jermey Parnell was a sparkplug in an 85-77 come-from-behind triumph against New Orleans last week with a career-high 16 points on a red-hot shooting night (5-for-5 FG, 6-for-7 FT). The Rebs have forced 119 turnovers and rank third in the SEC in turnover margin (+4.8). The Rebels own the league’s best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.35. Ole Miss ends a 10-day break for finals when it travels to face Memphis on Saturday.

AUBURN: The Tigers put up a good fight against No. 2 Pittsburgh Sunday but fell just short (74-66) despite Josh Dollard’s first career double-double (14 points, 12 rebounds). AU wraps up a stretch of nine games in 20 days when it tangles with instate foe South Alabama tonight. The coaching matchup pits two pretty decent college point guards – Auburn coach Jeff Lebo from North Carolina and USA’s John Pelphrey, one of “The Unforgettables” of Kentucky basketball lore. The series with the Jaguars is tied, but the teams haven’t met since 2001. The Tigers are 6.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Spurs

Consistently Contending Spurs

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The lifespan of greatness in professional sports is about the same as your average car battery. Dominance generally lasts three or four years.

Then there are the San Antonio Spurs.

Bill Clinton had just begun his second term in the White House the last time the Spurs were lousy. San Antonio has won at least 53 games in each of the past eight full seasons.

It would appear 2006-07 will prove no different. San Antonio is now tied with Dallas atop the Midwest Division at 13-5. The most fundamentally sound team in the NBA simply outclasses the competition.

The Spurs have outscored their opponents this season by a league-best 7.5 points a game. Their .398 3-point shooting percentage ranks atop the NBA. They have surrendered just 92.4 points a game, second to Houston. They are among the leaders in most statistical categories.

Individual consistency translates into team consistency every season. Tim Duncan is again scoring 21.9 points with 11 rebounds a game. Guard Tony Parker is averaging 19.5 points and 5.2 assists. Bruce Bowen is playing his usual lockdown defense. Manu Ginobili and reserve guard Michael Finley have yet to find their shooting accuracy, yet the Spurs continue to win.

If revenge is a motivator, they should win Wednesday night as well. According to WagerWeb.com, they are 8-point favorites in Charlotte, which stunned the Spurs in San Antonio earlier in the year.

ONE BOUNCES BACK, ANOTHER DOESN’T: Two sizzling teams finally lost earlier this week. Dallas had its 12-game winning streak ended Monday in Washington. Detroit had its eight-game streak snapped in Charlotte.

Both teams had a chance to redeem themselves Tuesday night. Only the Mavericks did.

They did it in style, knocking off disappointing New Jersey on the road, 92-75. With enemies such as the Nets, they required no friends. The New Jersey bench contributed just 10 points. Its three reserve guards missed all nine of their shots and combined for one assist.

The Pistons lost their second consecutive game to considerably weaker competition, falling at home to Portland, 88-85. Detroit jacked up 24 3-pointers and hit just seven.

DRIBBLES: The Golden State Warriors have lost their past two games by a combined 68 points, both to Midwest Division powers. They fell to San Antonio, 129-89, and to Houston, 118-90. Guard Jason Richardson missed both games due to soreness in his surgically repaired left knee. … Cavaliers guard Larry Hughes is close to returning from his high ankle sprain injury, but likely won’t play against visiting Toronto on Wednesday night. Cleveland is an 8.5-point favorite, according to WagerWeb.com. … The Chicago Bulls can even their record at 9-9 and win their sixth straight Wednesday night at home against struggling Philadelphia. WagerWeb.com lists them as 9-point favorites. … Phoenix guard and two-time reigning Most Valuable Player Steve Nash dished out an NBA season-high 20 assists in a 127-102 victory over Sacramento on Tuesday night.

Waiver Wire, Week 14

Waiver Wire Week 14

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

This is a critical week in fantasy football circles, as in most leagues this is either the last week of the regular season or the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Having the right players in your lineup this week could make the difference between making the playoffs and crying in your beer. These players could be available on your waiver wire and would be decent starting players for you if you need some help:

Quarterbacks
There are a lot of QBs available on the waiver wire who have nice matchups this week. If you are a Donovan McNabb owner, these guys could be inserted in your lineup and should do just fine for you. I have them ranked in order of preference:

Vince Young, Tennessee vs Houston
Brad Johnson, Minnesota vs Detroit
Jeff Garcia, Philadelphia vs Washington
Alex Smith, San Francisco vs Green Bay
Matt Leinart, Arizona vs Seattle

Running Backs
There probably aren’t many RBs left out there who could help you this week, but if you own Ronnie Brown (who is probably out again this week) and need some help, here’s who should be out there:

Cedric Houston, NY Jets – Houston broke out in a big way last week, with over 100+ yards and 2 rushing TDs. Look for more of the same this week against a soft Buffalo rush defense.
Sammy Morris, Miami – Morris should get the bulk of the carries with Brown out again, but he has a tough matchup against New England.
Justin Fargas/ReShard Lee, Oakland – Fargas gets most of the carries now, but Lee is the goal-line guy. The Cincy defense can be run against, so either or both guys could have nice games.
Mewelde Moore/Ciatrick Fason, Minnesota: Regular starter Chester Taylor was banged up against the Bears last week and both Moore and Fason saw action in his place. Taylor’s status is currently up in the air for this week, but if he sits, there is an opportunity, as the Vikes have a real nice matchup against the Lions. Moore would be my first choice between the two.

Wide Receivers
Marcus Robinson, Minnesota/Antonio Bryant, San Francisco: Minnesota and San Fran have the two best schedules against the pass in the next three weeks, and these are the No. 1 guys for those offenses.

Marty Booker, Miami – Booker has taken over as the No. 1 guy in Miami, as he has built a nice connection with Joey Harrington. Miami should have to throw this week against New England, so look for Booker to put up some good yardage and have a shot at a TD.
Matt Jones, Jacksonville – Jones finally had the game his owners were waiting for last week, with 128 yards and a TD. Hopefully he continues this trend, as he has extreme physical gifts and just needs to stay on the field to produce.

Tight End
Vernon Davis, San Francisco: I had Davis on this list a couple of weeks ago, but he hasn’t done anything since. That should change this week, as the 49ers’ other TE, Eric Johnson, is out with an injury. Between that and the great matchup against Green Bay, Davis should finally put some numbers up this week.
Ben Utecht, Indianapolis: Starting TE Dallas Clark is out, and even with Clark in the lineup Utecht is getting a few looks per game. He should see his pass targets increase this week and he could be a top-10 TE as long as Clark is out.

Kickers/Defenses
As you know I’m of the mindset that kickers are pretty much dime a dozen and you can do just fine playing matchups each week. For defenses, the best thing to do is check the schedule each week and try and get teams that are playing against teams with bad records, i.e. Houston, Oakland, etc.

Best of luck as you make your last stab for the playoffs or are in your first-round matchup!

Indespensible Westbrook

Indispensable Westbrook

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

Journeyman Jeff Garcia has been given a lot of credit for keeping the Eagles afloat since they lost Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb last month. And perhaps, rightfully so. With little preparation time, Garcia has started two tough games — against the Colts and Panthers — and came out a modest 1-1.

But make no mistake. The 6-6 Eagles would be nowhere without running back Brian Westbrook.

“We’re not out of it. I’ve said it in weeks past, that we’re fighters and we’re going to continue to fight until the end and you know we’re going to go out and take every game one at a time,” Westbrook said. “Let the chips fall where they may at the end. You know we’re not going to let up. We have four games left, and we’re going to keep fighting and keep shooting and hopefully at the end, we’ll be in the playoffs.”

If they make it, it’ll be on his shoulders. Westbrook, in his fifth season out of Villanova, has 906 rushing yards, 586 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns. He has done so with a nagging knee injury, and in Monday’s 27-24 win over Carolina, he suffered a toe injury.

The Eagles travel to meet the Redskins on Sunday. Philadelphia is -1.5 on WagerWeb.com

“I should,” Westbrook said, “be ready to go.”

Eagles Nation can only hope so. In a 27-3 victory over the Redskins Nov. 12, Westbrook, who continues to be listed each week on the injury report as questionable, had 150 total yards.

“He still has a little bit of tenderness in there. It comes and it goes,” Coach Andy Reid said. “Some days are better than other days. But we have been able to push through.”

With an added emphasis on victories the rest of the way – Philadelphia probably needs to win out to make the postseason — a little insurance for Westbrook couldn’t hurt. With that in mind, keep an eye on Duce Staley, a former Eagle and fan favorite in Philadelphia who was released by the Steelers this week.

“I probably need to talk to (General Manager) Tom (Heckert),” Reid said, “before I go in that direction.”

SHORT-HANDED STEELERS: At 5-7, Pittsburgh shouldn’t be all that concerned about its playoff future. And with just three days to prepare for this week’s game, the Steelers don’t have much time to, anyway.

“We might as well,” quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said after the Steelers’ 20-3 win over Tampa Bay last Sunday, “leave our uniforms on.”

That won’t be the case for two key cogs, however. For the second consecutive week, wide receiver Hines Ward and safety Troy Polamalu will each miss Thursday’s NFL Network game against the Browns at Heinz Field with knee injuries.

Coach Bill Cowher, in typical fashion, is concerned more about the players he does have at his disposal — rather than those he doesn’t have — for a rivalry, prime-time game that he still deems critical no matter how far behind the playoff pack Pittsburgh is.

“We’re just going to approach it like it’s another game,” he said. “We’re going to come out firing, and we know they’re going to come out firing, and it should be a classic game.”

The Steelers are -7.5 on WagerWeb.com.

EXTRA POINTS: The puzzling career of Tampa Bay WR Michael Clayton continues. A 2004 first-round pick, or bust, out of LSU, Clayton is lost for the season with a knee injury. He had 1,193 receiving yards in his rookie season, but has just 728 since. … Give credit to Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy for keeping his chin up in a tough town. At 4-8, with only Detroit keeping the Packers out of the NFC North basement, he remains as optimistic as ever. “We have to stay the course, trust the structure, prepare them,” he said. “And I have to get them to do better job to perform on Su ndays.” Good luck . … With the playoff races heating up in both conferences and crucial kicks becoming more and more evident, look for someone to sign Mike Vanderjagt, cut by the Cowboys last week, sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, he’d have to bring all of his baggage with him, wherever he goes.

Handicapping Net Yardage Means Net Winnings

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The pioneer in forensic handicapping, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, once described
the success of his futuristic branch of handicapping being based on the
premise, “The linesmakers know what the public is thinking and are two steps
ahead of them. The sharp player knows what the linesmakers are thinking and is
three steps ahead of them.”

That is a fair characterization of what Mike Godsey, chief
football handicapper at Joe Duffy’s GodsTips has been doing for years. When we deliberate
and finalize our football selections, the statistics for me that top the list
are yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on each side of the ball
relative to the cumulative averages of that team’s opponents to date.

Godsey, one of the first Internet handicappers, uses a few
others, but net yardage margin measured against schedule strength tops the
list. Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping, a
fact that so few gamblers realize. At least 9-of-10 pointspread bettors have
little conception of the difference between picking which team will win
straight up and which teams will cover. In short, that’s what separates the men
from the boys in sports betting.

Furthermore, to our original point, odds are based in
great deal do to perception and such conception is effected most by straight up
record. Godsey uses “net yardage records” and collates it against SU record to
divulge deceptive straight up records and consequently as we like to say:
overvalued and undervalued teams. He also applies the actual positive or
negative margin of net yardage much in the same way other handicappers use
point margin of victory or loss.

Wins and losses can often be affected by aberrational
events like defensive or special teams touchdowns. Godsey’s research shows “Such fortune is
tougher to duplicate game after game by the beneficiary or is much less likely
to be repeated against the victim of such fate.”

Of course as all good gamblers do, Godsey considers many
other factors. But while those who subsidize the books overassess wins, losses
and points margin, Godsey is using much more circumstantiated data. With net yardage topping his list of
statistical derivatives, it’s no wonder he’s topping the list of net winnings.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.


The More Things Stay the Same, the More They Change

Streamlining, when employed properly, is of course
effective in every line of work. In the 1970s and 80s, a lot of gamblers would
focus on local teams and conferences where regional information was often more
accurate and punctual than what Vegas could acquire.

The Internet and the Information Age, to say the least
changed that. By no means did progress eliminate streamlining, it changed the
focal point.

At one juncture, many moons ago, one of the most
influential persons in moving a line was professional handicapper “Doc” in the
Big 10. “His plays could move the line
five, six points” says Steve Linden, one of the high rolling founders of MasterLockLine.com, the online betting
syndicate.

Times changed and team or conference experts were no
longer based on “location, location, location” but on the ability to adapt and
expose which teams were the flavor of the moment to go with or against.

Focusing on a specific team now involves ascertaining
undervalued and overvalued squads and riding them until oddsmakers caught up.

Forensic handicapper Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com says teams that
inevitably become streaky spread wise are squads that have a high winning
percentage but don’t blow teams out, or losing teams that don’t get blown out
often.

Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com says
he agrees, it is part of his “dichotomous ATS and SU” theory. “We discount 98 percent of trends, but this
has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically if a team has a great SU
record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it
is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.”

Linden says of
the professional handicappers they monitor, unlike last century, there are
fewer who simply excel by focusing on a specific team or conference, but
instead they do notice, “The elite services do consistently go for or against
the same teams for extended periods.”

With college basketball just around the corner, the number
of teams undistinguished to the masses, but crystal clear to the sharpies
increases multifold. Good times lie ahead for gamblers who streamline, but do
so a bit differently now than they did in 1986.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which features the top handicappers from the former Freescoreboard
scorephone. His plays are part of Dream
Team at GodsTips.com


To Bet a Man Square Massacre Undermines Conservatism

As mentioned in other articles written about the To Bet a
Man Square Massacre, I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. Nobody is more dismayed by the Prohibition of
the 21st Century than I am. I
painfully acknowledge that the Reagan Revolution has been hijacked by the Big
Brother Devolution, which has lead to the basic civil right to place a bet
having been infringed upon.

That is unless you want to play bingo in a church hall or
bet on the No. 4 horse in the second race. The insurgents in the conservative
movement know who butters their bread. John Kyl and Bill Frist may be
hypocritical but they are not stupid. Every phony has his price.

What attracted me to the Conservative Movement more than
anything else was the foundation of personal responsibility and accountability.
The Reagan Revolution saw this across the board whether it was holding
convicted criminals accountable, allowing the successful to keep more of their
income and by believing the individual and private sector always thrive more
without government interference.

Deregulation was commonplace. Most importantly, my brand
of conservatism believed in creating new streams of tax revenue. This was in
lieu of raising taxes on the rich, defining the wealthy as anyone who makes one
dollar more than I do.

In the Baptist Press,
Bill Frist wrote a first person account why he knows how to spend your
money more responsibly than you do.

The father of the Big Brother movement apparently wants to
replace the first letter in his last name with “Ch” because he appoints himself
the Savior of you and me. Conservatism’s
bastard child aimlessly scribbled, “People who gamble
online are almost twice as likely to become problem gamblers as those who
gamble in other places. Problem gambling destroys lives and families.”

Frist has chosen not to revive Reaganism, but McCarthyism.

Apparently if you want to bet a four-team $20 parlay, you
are destroying your family. Clearly your
values are not as family friendly as that of Frist and Thomas Foley. Send
perverted messages to minors on a computer and Big Brother wants to cover it
up. Bet lunch money on a baseball game and Frist wants to lock you up.

I will be the first to admit, most Americans do not put
the utmost priority on their right to gamble, though I’d venture to say the
number of enraged is significantly higher than far right wing periphery
realizes.

The Big Brother conservatives believe in personal
responsibility alright. Your family values are their personal responsibility.

Every opinion poll known to mankind confirms American
families believe Frist has failed miserably in leading his party in the Senate.
Undeterred, he still believes government needs to be the caretaker of your
family. You are too dim-witted to know online gambling is the greatest affront
to the American family since that effeminate dinosaur Barney started
emasculating our children thanks to tax supported PBS.

Legalizing and taxing online gambling is the perfect
marriage for true conservatives. However the beliefs in personal responsibility
and new forms of tax revenue have been sabotaged.

The To Bet a Man Square Massacre may not be the reason
that Frist and his cronies have approval ratings that hover around the Duke
football team’s winning percentage. But
his attack on your rights under the subterfuge of family values is at the very
least symbolic of the crisis he created. Genuine conservatives, those who
should be his core supporters, believe that Frist and Kyl are, how can I say
this nicely—self righteous idiots whose subversive skullduggery has
incapacitated the movement they pretend to represent.

Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave. I’d bet on it, but Jesus Frist won’t let me.

Joe Duffy, a former Young Republican Executive Board
member is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which conservatively speaking is the premier source for sports
gambling information.


Republicans About to Lose Gamble

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

Many years ago I was a two-time executive board member of
the North Fulton (GA) Young Republicans.
I’m no longer young. As I got
older, I preferred to describe my political beliefs aligned more with
conservative ideology than any political party.

As I transitioned into a middle aged Republican, my eyes
were opened to the fact that both parties are guilty of putting partisan needs
ahead of the country’s well being.

I preferred to align myself with ideals. When my choice
lost, rather than proving I was smarter than those who voted for the winning
candidate, I judged the elected official on performance and not which letter is
in parenthesis after his or her name. Conversely, when my chad hung for the
right person, blind defense of such elected official could not enter the
equation.

So there you have my leanings on the table, but I honestly
believe I’ve always had a political slant, yet never a bias.

I generally have been pretty accurate predicting the
outcome of elections, my rooting interests never shading me.

Most observers were shocked at the last major election. The
Republican Party became the first since Franklin Roosevelt to win both the
White House and gain seats in both houses while already holding a majority.

Mind you, I can’t say I have the political handicapping
skills to match my sports prognostication abilities, but I foresaw the
Democrats losing the last elections much more so than the Republicans “winning”.

Their Presidential frontrunner Howard Dean and lead attack
dog Tom Daschle rallied the far left but alienated the center—the
undecided—with melodramatic, Chicken Little, sky-is-falling rhetoric.

Dean plummeted quickly in his party’s own primaries and
Daschle, once unbeatable is now a private citizen thanks to a contingency that
tired of their refusal to keep the debate honest. George Soros, Hollywood
and Air America
cheered the venom and histrionics, while the undecided gave more power to an
unpopular majority party.

Republicans clearly, two years later, are hell bent on
returning the favor. The right wing counterparts to MoveOn.org, Al Franken and
the incorrigibles have commandeered the party. Republican insurgents such as Jerry Falwell, Anne Coulter, and Michael Savage may feel
invigorated by their party’s Gambling Prohibition. But every survey I have ever
seen says that rank and file Americans believe in the right to bet five bucks
on how many points will be scored on the Monday Night Football game.

This political handicapper believes—and with a
conservative slant at that—the Republican Party’s insistence on kowtowing the
right-wing fringe is a gamble that will fail miserably.

Joe Duffy is CEO of
OffshoreInsiders.com your source for free sports picks from the
nation’s top handicappers as well as exclusive sports betting information.


Sports Handicapping and Emotion

I write this article knowing there is nothing joyful about
 benefiting from tragedy in sports betting, albeit in this case indirectly. But every now and then
off field tragedy causes an emotional response from players that cannot be manufactured 
or duplicated, nor should be ignored by gamblers, as impure as it seems.

I keep hearing after-the-fact experts telling us that “no
team was going to beat the New Orleans Saints” in their Monday night game 
against the Atlanta Falcons, the first game in New Orleans in the post-Katrina 
era.

We told you all that before the game as New
Orleans was our Monday Night
 Game of the Year. In short, New Orleans
 was playing in no uncertain terms, the biggest game in franchise history, while 
Atlanta was simply in the way.

While I do not mind bragging I have to admit, I am an
after-the-fact Bill Buckner and Jacky Smith all wrapped into one in missing the
 Rice “intangible”. Before I go in any further, I will again acknowledge, there
is a certain level of unease in exploiting tragedy in sports handicapping, but
ignoring such angle benefits only the bookmakers.

Rice, a double-digit dog, crushed Army 48-14. They were riding the emotion of freshman 
defensive back Dale Lloyd collapsing earlier in the week at practice and
passing away.

In 2001, our MLB Game of the Year was when the NY Mets
 played their first home game since 911, and were a home dog to Atlanta. 
True, the Mets had to get a dramatic walk off home run from Mike Piazza to win, 
but the seemingly scripted ending was reflective of how the Mets were simply
not going to be denied victory that night.

One of my first NHL regular season selections was November 15, 1985. I bet on the
 Philadelphia Flyers in their first game back after star goaltender Pelle Lindbergh was killed in a car accident. The Flyers,
as a big underdog, dominated the then seemingly invincible Edmonton Oilers.

I even decided to retroactively test this theory. Is there
a more poignant sports speech in history than Lou Gehrig’s “luckiest man in the
world” speech? Honestly I didn’t know
the game score was that day, but I researched it convinced there was no way the
Yankees lost. I was right; they crushed
the Washington Senators 11-1 following that historic speech on Independence Day
1939.

Emotion should never be underestimated and simply can’t be
 contrived. Regrettably opportunity 
knocks when real-life circumstances transcend sports. But it is opportunity nonetheless.