WagerWeb

Low To Medium Pocket Pairs

By Aaron J. Moore
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

Low to medium pocket pairs. They’re a lot like the remnants at the bottom of a Chips Ahoy bag. You like the taste of them, but you would certainly prefer sitting in front of something larger and a little more substantial.

A low to medium pocket pair often elevates a player to top position prior to the flop. Unfortunately, with so many over-cards floating around that tantalizing hand often goes sour. In order to understand the best way to play this hand, make sure you are well versed in the two general techniques employed when someone is holding a low to medium pocket pair.

One option is to limp in and hope for trips to hit. The other is to make a substantial raise and chase away any callers.

Neither of these techniques guarantees success, but your game will improve when you better understand the other factors surrounding your bargain basement pocket pair. So next time you’re in a no-limit game and see something resembling pocket 4s don’t immediately react as though you’ve won the lottery and overplay them (a common mistake for novice players). Instead, inhale gently and take inventory of your chip stack, position, style of game and opponents before deciding how to proceed.

When you sneak into a hand without a raise and then hit a set, your opponents will have a lot of trouble putting you on that hand. Those with top pair and two of a kind will be beating into the trap you surreptitiously set for them. There is a reason pocket pairs are called silent killers.

The odds of hitting 3-of-a kind on the flop with a pocket pair is nearly 11 percent.
Another advantage of sneaking into a flop with this type of hand is you will have a good idea where you stand when all low cards hit the board. Most likely your opponents are playing a single high card. If no high cards are on the board, then you have the ability to make a sizeable raise since most likely you have the best hand. If you find yourself in this position, you must make a big raise to show strength and to stave off those on a draw.

The same holds true if the flop brings a lot of high cards. Someone betting the board with a lot of high cards probably has you beat.

The greatest advantage in coming in quietly with a low to medium pocket pair is how easy it is to walk away when re-raised a sizeable amount. Instead of committing too many chips to a hand that can go south real quick, it’s easy to fold this hand if you don’t make a large initial investment.

I like the idea of “easy in – easy out” with low pocket pairs.

Of course, chip stack is also important in how you play this hand. Usually low to medium pocket pairs generate the most action when it involves those with either the most or fewest chips. If you have a lot of chips you are in a position to gamble more, so these are good cards to use to push around the other less fortunate souls at the table. This hand is great for someone with a lot of chips because he is in a position to make a large bet and take away the pot odds for those on a draw.

For those barely clinging to life, especially in a tournament, having a low pocket pair makes an all-in a solid play. Going all-in gives you a chance of taking the blinds and letting the others know you are dangerous enough that they should think twice about picking on you. If someone calls, you’re probably going to race with them, and if you are without a lot of chips this is one of your best-case scenarios.

A double-edged sword also exists when you go into overdrive while playing the pocket pairs. If you make a large pre-flop raise, you run the risk of unnecessarily becoming pot-committed and overplaying what is probably a mediocre hand. If your hand is lower than 7s, then your chances are worse than a coin flip because the possibility arises that someone with just a little better pair than yours is going heads up against you. If that is the case, then you are really dominated.

On the other hand, if you fail to bet you leave the door wide open for someone to call with nothing and hit something on the flop that beats up.

These risks underlie why position is so important when playing low to medium pocket pairs.

An early position is often the best time to limp in with a low pair. By doing so, you can see how the others behind you react. If someone makes a large raise after you call the large blind that commonly signifies a medium pocket pair or a couple of high cards. If you have the money to gamble, you can call a large raise within reason or comfortably throw them in the muck without remorse if you feel like you are dominated. You will have these options as a result of not overplaying your hand too early.

Another reason position should dictate how you play a low to medium pair is you will be provided with the chance to size up the playing style of those behind you. If you have a calling station or a real loose player behind you, think twice about making a sizeable raise and just limp into the flop. If Mr. Call has something in the ballpark of K-9 unsuited, he will probably see your large bet and hope for some luck. If paint hits on the flop, tread lightly because he probably has a better hand. Large bets don’t necessarily shake off weak players who often just call. Inexperienced players tend to not know when they are beat, so a large bet in front of them is not as much a scare tactic as it is for other players.

If you are in a late position and there aren’t that many players involved with the pot, this is an opportune time to make a large raise. Raising with a low to medium pair is also advised when you know there are timid and tight players behind you. If you sense weakness, then view your pair of 5s as a pair of Aces. Play them confidently and continually raise to put pressure on tight players. Even if a tight player has a better pocket pair, he will very likely think the situation is reversed in your favor. By maintaining a steady betting pace, you can prevent a tight player from seeing the river and you ultimately know he will only call with the nuts.

Whatever decision you make with your low to medium pocket pair, make sure not to lead off with just a small raise. This does little to improve your chances of winning. Be committed and think either stealth or strength with the low to medium pocket pair.

WagerWeb

NFL Team Preview: Texans

By Mike Brody
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

The Houston Texans are entering their fifth season in the NFL and are still searching for respectability. The Texans regressed badly last season, finishing 2-14 after showing promise in 2004 (7-9). The terrible season did allow Houston to get the No. 1 pick in the draft, but it looks like the Texans didn’t get that right, either.

Houston bypassed the consensus best player available, RB Reggie Bush, and opted for DE Mario Williams. While Williams should be a good player, Bush may be the game-breaker that the Texans’ offense is missing. Now, word out of Houston is that incumbent RB Domanick Davis’ knee injury could be worse than previously thought. There are signs and symptoms pointing to degenerative arthritic (bone on bone) changes in the knee. This is the same condition that ended Terrell Davis’ career. It would be a devastating blow to Houston’s offense if Davis can’t return and would raise even more criticism over the decision to pass on Bush.

Key Additions: WRs Eric Moulds and Kevin Walter, FB Jameel Cook, DEs Anthony Weaver, N.D. Kalu and Mario Williams (rookie), TE Jeb Putzier, LBs Sam Cowart, DeMeco Ryans (rookie) and Zeke Moreno, C Mike Flanagan, RB Antowain Smith, OTs Eric Winston (rookie) and Charles Spencer.

Key Subtractions: WRs Jabar Gaffney and Corey Bradford, DBs Jason Bell and Marcus Coleman, G Milford Brown, DE Gary Walker, QB Tony Banks.

WagerWeb

Sportsbook Odds: The over/under for Houston wins at WagerWeb.com is six. That might be a little optimistic for this young team. At -$155, the under is probably the safest bet on the Texans. Houston has almost no chance of winning its division or even making the playoffs.
WagerWeb

has Houston at +$1800 to win the AFC South, +$6000 to win the AFC championship and +$12500 to win Super Bowl XLI.

Player to Watch: QB David Carr is still the key to a potentially explosive offense. He has been sacked more than any quarterback in the league in three of the past four seasons. Carr could be in for a breakout season if the line can protect him as the Texans added some weapons through free agency to help the fifth-year starter. Veteran WR Moulds should open up the field for No. 1 receiver Andre Johnson, who caught 79 passes for 1,142 in 2004. Putzier is a pass-catching tight end, and Walter will be a solid third receiver. Walter thinks he’ll have more opportunities than he did in Cincinnati. “They might double ‘Dre, they might double Eric,” Walter said, “and that’s going to leave me one-on-one with somebody. Whoever is going to be covering me, they’re going to have their work cut out for them that day.”

Outlook: The Texans added more than just players this offseason as they fired Coach Dom Capers and replaced him with Gary Kubiak, the highly sought-after former offense coordinator of the Denver Broncos. Kubiak will bring the Broncos’ offensive schemes with him to Houston, which will upgrade the offense. If Mario Williams really is as good as Houston thinks he is, he could anchor an improving defense and make the team competitive. The Texans won’t be as much of a pushover as they were last season, but don’t look for a miracle turnaround just yet.

WagerWeb

AFC East Odds

By Dan The Man Leach
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

New England Patriots $-210/10
WagerWeb

odds to win division/regular-season wins): The Pats look to get back to where they are used to being: playing in the Super Bowl And whenever you have Tom Brady under center and Bill Belichick on the sideline, your chances are better than most. The skills of RB Corey Dillon will be key, and injuries that plagued the team last year will need to be avoided, but the Pats once again have the makings of a championship contender.
DTM PREDICTED WINS: 11

Miami Dolphins +$185/9 wins: Year 2 of the Nick Saban era gets off to a good start in Miami, as during the offseason the Fins addressed their QB problem by bringing in former All-Pro Daunte Culpepper and former Lions starter Joey Harrington to back him up. The defense will still be pretty good, but this team will go as far as its new QB can take it, at least for this season. RB Ronnie Brown is definitely the future of this team, and he will look to expand on his great rookie season of a year ago.
DTM PREDICTED WINS: 9

Buffalo Bills +$1100/6.5 wins: The Bills bring back 80-year-old Marv Levy to be GM and are hoping for the kind of success they had under Levy in the late ’80s and early ’90s. The Bills have been a shade of their former glory days selves recently. QB has been a problem for Buffalo, and this year the Bills have to decide between veteran Kelly Holcomb and unproven J.P Losman. The offense likely will struggle to score points consistently.
DTM PREDICTED WINS: 7

New York Jets +$1000/6 wins: QB Chad Pennington comes back after shoulder surgery and is one of the biggest question marks in Jets history as many feel he is either going to be the key to their success or the reason they fail. RB Curtis Martin may not play this season. The defense should be quicker and more aggressive under new head coach and Bill Belichick clone Eric Mangini.
DTM PREDICTED WINS: 7

WagerWeb

Online Poker Tips

By Aaron J. Moore
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

The key to being a good
WagerWeb

online poker player is …

Hold on, please, while I am writing this article, I am also playing in a $50 sit and go.
OK, the tightwad to my left has called my $400 pre-flop raise. He must have something like King-Jack suited.

Like I was just writing, the key to being a good online poker player is…
Can you believe this guy? He leads out with an $800 raise on a rainbow K-7-10 flop. I have an up and down straight draw and he puts most of his chips in from the start.
Right, right, sorry about that. Being a good online poker player means …

I guess I have to fold.

For many online players, this scenario presents itself far too often. It’s the curse of the online player, being deeply involved in a big game but at the same time multitasking. The game takes a backseat to checking email, checking fantasy baseball statsand checking out what exotic Russian women often do on the Internet.

Therein lies a major problem for the horde of people playing poker online. A population that includes professional players, would-be professionals and a lot of thrill-seekers. It doesn’t take an expert commentator such as Norman Chad to look out at that playing field and forecast the winners are most likely those who devote most of their time and mental energy toward the games they are playing and not on ancillary activities.

The key to being a good online player is to be focused.

Playing online has its risks compared to live games. You can not get a true read on your opponents’ habits; you can’t form a model in your mind on how he/she plays because you can not see them and the way they conduct themselves; and you have no idea if he/she is just some loose player who likes throwing chips away.

So taking into account these risks, if your attention easily sways away from the game, then trapdoors in front of you grow wider.

Here are some ways to improve your online play.

• Don’t allow Web surfing to distract your game. It’s always tempting to waste time between hands browsing the Web, but that won’t help you win. Pay attention to betting patterns of the players at the table. Look to see who folds easily or who keeps over-betting the pot. This information is extremely valuable but can only be obtained when watching the game, not another Web site.

There are plenty of weak players online, so pay attention and identify them early in the game. For those who spend a lot of time playing online, the games can be tedious. Instead of constantly checking your email, attempt another diversion like getting out of the chair and walking around. This will keep you fresh but also keep your mind on the game.

• Be awake. For avid poker players, online games are like an oasis in the desert. Players can satisfy their thirst by finding an online game no matter the time of day. However, that 7-11 mentality of never being closed can also be dangerous. When you crave a game, make sure you are alert. That goes for both morning and night. Don’t wake up and immediately get started with a game.

Take a shower and tend to your daily business. This will greatly improve your attention span so you can sit down at the computer and be free of a lingering notion that your daily tasks are still ahead of you. A good rule to give yourself is not to play until you have been wide awake for more than two hours. After you are awake and have tended to necessary business, an online game can be your only concern.

The same logic holds true for the nighttime. Don’t fall into the bad habit of saying to yourself , “One quick game and then I will go to sleep.” If you are thinking that, then you are probably already tired and not at full capacity to play.

Why put yourself in a position to be someone else’s ATM machine just because you want to play? A good poker player should want to play good poker, not just play poker.

If you know a night’s sleep is only a few ticks away, you are more likely to make a bad decision and easily expose yourself to defeat. Instead of playing that last late night game, convince yourself you will be a better player tomorrow following a good sleep than your current state of drowsiness.

• Play cash games rather than a tournament if time is an issue. Hopefully, you have set time aside during the day when you will play online poker free of other stimuli and annoyances (in other words, a time when your wife is not wandering around the house asking you if you would like to go to the flower festival with her). If you are unsure of how long you will be able to play distraction free, then make the wise decision and play a cash game rather than a tournament. Cash games are better for those players with time restraints. Easy-in, easy-out is the case for cash games, but not so for tournaments. In a tournament, you can never be sure how long it will last. If you have somewhere to go but you are in a tournament, the chances are extremely high you will just throw your chips away to expedite the game. If you were in the same position but in a cash game, you could play one last hand and be free of other financial obligations on the table.

There is a reason why college students and professional players do so well online. It stems from their free time and their perspective of the game being the most important aspect of their life at that moment. While online, don’t make the mistake of doing a handful of other tasks while playing. You are likely going to lose to someone with a much different approach.

WagerWeb

WagerWeb

QB Controversy In Windy City? Falta URL

By Tim Sullivan
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

If it’s late August, if NFL

Quarterback controversy.

This year is no different, as several teams are weighing the pros and cons of veterans vs. youngsters; highly paid vs. underpaid; and experience vs. potential.

Usually, these summertime signal-caller standoffs are reserved for the bottom-feeders. Again, this year appears no different as the Jets — with Chad Pennington and Patrick Ramsey — and the Bills — with J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb — have taken center stage.

But another team may creep into the equation before too long. And it might surprise you.

“Brian is doing a great job. He’s very smart, has got a great work ethic and is very quick with the ball. I’m also very impressed with his accuracy.”

Such are the words of Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner, and they were used to describe one Brian Griese, Chicago’s backup — for now — who signed a five-year, incentive-laden deal March 21. Turner, as well as Coach Lovie Smith, has been impressed with the nine-year veteran’s grasp of the offense and overall pocket composure. Not to mention his three preseason touchdown passes.

But, surely, a healthy Rex Grossman will lead the charge as the mighty Bears (-$300 to win the NFC North, +800 to win the NFC, +1700 to win the Super Bowl on
WagerWeb

look to build on last season’s success, right?

“I know how those things work. To be honest, I’m not even thinking about that,” said Griese, who could earn $20 million over the life of the deal. “I’m thinking about trying to get better as a player, learning this offense, getting used to Turner and the way he calls plays, and really proving myself to the guys on the team.”

He appears well on his way. And with a team that’s built to win this year — the Bears’ season over/under is 9.5 wins on WagerWeb.com — a quarterback change could be in store if Grossman stumbles out of the box.

For now, though, let’s scrap the controversy part, and just call it a quarterback question. Or should we say questions?

After all, let’s face it: The fragile Grossman, in three seasons, has started just eight games and won just four of them. What’s more, the former Florida Gator is 0-1 in the postseason and has yet to establish that required rapport with his receivers.

Now, Griese isn’t an MVP candidate. In fact, in this same space last week, we knocked the former Michigan Wolverine for being a part of an average group of quarterbacks to don Dolphins jerseys in the past five seasons.

But he is 13-10 as a starter since leaving the Broncos in 2002. And, in his final six starts with the Buccaneers, he won five of them.

“Fans are going to scream for Griese, fans are going to scream for Grossman,” Chicago wide receiver Justin Gage said. “But as long as we’ve got two healthy good quarterbacks, then I’m good with that.”

Perhaps, by Week 1, Bears fans will agree with Gage. Remember, we’re talking about a team that will probably only go as far as its dominating defense will allow it, regardless of whom is under center. After all, unheralded rookie Kyle Orton went 10-5 as a starter last season.
So what are bettors to expect this season?

“Rex,” Smith said bluntly, “is our starting quarterback.”

For now.

RICKY AND DeANGELO: Panthers rookie running back DeAngelo Williams may be small — 5-foot-9, 213 pounds — but he has always thought big. Even when he was in high school, as he was grooming himself into a Division I recruit, he idolized former Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams.

For what Ricky did on the field, of course, not off it.
“I just thought that he had so much leg strength, so much power. He was able to make something out of nothing with his shiftiness, but he could also run you right over,” DeAngelo said of the former Dolphin and Saint. “Those are the same characteristics I wanted to have. I’ve developed that a little, but I still have work to do. I’m getting there.”

The Panthers agree, and they’re willing to wait as he continues his journey. Williams, who topped 1,900 rushing yards in each of his last two seasons at Memphis, won’t be thrown into the fire as DeShaun Foster will carry the load this season.

“I’m a little nervous,” Williams said. “But it’s great playing at this level and talking to DeShaun on the sidelines, asking him if I made the right read and cuts.”

Here’s thinking Foster, who compiled 1,251 total yards and eight touchdowns last season, will be a better influence on DeAngelo than Ricky the rest of the way.

KEEPING UP WITH JONES: Jimmy Smith’s sudden retirement May 11 simply shook the Jaguars and clearly threw a wrench into what was a feel-good period in Jacksonville. Coach Jack Del Rio’s crew was fresh off a 12-4 season and its first playoff appearance since 1999. Not exactly the best time to lose the franchise’s all-time leading receiver.

But the Jaguars have since moved on. And they may have found their next top gun, in the form of 2005 first-round pick Matt Jones. A former quarterback at Arkansas, the rangy 6-6, 229-pound Jones grabbed 36 passes for 432 yards and five touchdowns even though he started just one game as a rookie.

“I want to be a solid, all-around receiver,” Jones said. “If I continue in the weight room and continue doing some of the things I want to do, then I can be. I don’t know that I’m there yet.”

Regardless, Jones is a constant matchup problem, and now that Smith is gone, he’ll be on the field that much more.

“This season,” Del Rio said, “is going to be a special year for him.”

Keep that in mind on fantasy draft day.

WagerWeb

WagerWeb

Fantasy WRs

By Chris Goudey
Inspin.com Contributing Writer

Now that you have my quarterback and running back rankings for the upcoming season, it’s time to give you my rankings for the last really important position in fantasy football, the wide receivers. Most leagues require that you start at least two WR and sometimes as many as four, so knowing which guys are going to produce is crucial to your success.

If you read my past two articles, you know I think RB is the most important position to fill, followed by QB. WR is then the third-most important position, but the problem with the WR position is these players are very inconsistent for the most part. A good RB is going to be much more reliable week-in and week-out, while even the top WR might get 150 yards one week and 20 the next. A good pass defense can really stifle a WR’s numbers, so while it is important to get 1-2 top WRs, you can also play matchups every week by picking up guys who will be facing poor pass defenses.

Another reason I don’t focus on WR as much during the draft is because every year there are guys who come out of nowhere to become good players. You can almost always pick up at least one really good WR on waivers during the season, while that is almost never the case with QBs and RBs. Anyway, now that you know my rationale on the position, on to the rankings.

The Top 12:
These are the guys you should focus on getting in the first 5 rounds. As I’ve said before, by the end of Round 5 you should have your 2 RBs, your QB, and your top 2 WRs. You should be able to get at least 1 of these top 12 and probably 2. These are ranked in order of preference.

WagerWeb

Steve Smith, Carolina – Assuming his preseason hamstring injury is healed by opening day, Smith is the clear No. 1 guy, in my opinion. He is the most intense WR in the game and is a huge producer because his QB, Jake Delhomme, trusts him implicitly. Smith will get more balls thrown to him than any other WR, and assuming he stays healthy should put up another dominant season.

Chad Johnson, Cincinnati – If Carson Palmer is healthy to start the year, Johnson is my No. 2 guy. He is the face of the franchise, and because Cincy has a great second WR in T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Johnson cannot always have double coverage. Look for Johnson to continue his consistent dominance.

Torry Holt, St. Louis – Holt has really become the most consistent WR in the game the past 2-3 years. He is QB Marc Bulger’s favorite target, and even though Mike Martz has left town, new coach Scott Linehan knows what he has in the Bulger-Holt connection.

Terrell Owens, Dallas – Yes, T.O. is a pain in the you-know-what. Yes, T.O. has many off-field issues. Does it affect his on-field performance? Umm, no. The one thing any of T.O.’s coaches will tell you is the guy takes enormous pride in his ability and is a very hard worker on the field. Look for Owens to really try and make amends for his past discretions and be the good soldier. He knows Bill Parcells isn’t going to put up with any of his antics, and while Drew Bledsoe is an old QB, he still has a great arm and the ability to make T.O. the No. 1 WR in the game again.

Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis — Harrison just keeps doing what he does, which is consistent excellence. He does have a stinker of a game every now and then, but he is rarely injured and by the end of the year, always has the same great numbers. With the defection of Edgerrin James to Arizona, look for the Colts to throw even more, and for Harrison and running-mate Reggie Wayne to reap the benefits.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona – This is my breakout candidate of the year. Fitzgerald has all the tools to be the No. 1 guy, and now that he will have a good running game to take the pressure off him and QB Kurt Warner, he should really take a quantum leap up the rankings this season.

Randy Moss, Oakland – This could be the lowest Moss has ever been ranked going into a season. This is a make-or-break year for him. He’s not getting any younger, and now that he has a strong-armed and mobile QB again in Aaron Brooks, he could very well return to being the Randy Moss from 2-3 years ago. Moss has been injured off and on, so if he can stay healthy and with the Raiders’ penchant to throw the deep ball, he might just be a bit undervalued.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh – Ward has always been underrated, but with last year’s Super Bowl performance I’m guessing he might actually be a bit overvalued this year. He is probably going to see more double-coverage than ever, and if Ben Roethlisberger shows any ill effects from his offseason accident, it could be a bit of a down year for Hines. On the flip side, he is Big Ben’s favorite target, and with the departure of Jerome Bettis, the Steelers should throw more near the end zone so he could have a few more TDs than he has had previously.

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis – As I stated above with Harrison, Indy is going to have to throw more this season, so Wayne’s numbers should hit new career-highs. Harrison is also getting older, so Peyton Manning might try to establish more of a connection with the guy who will be his No. 1 in the near future.

Chris Chambers, Miami – There was no more productive WR in the 2nd half of last season, and that was with Gus Frerotte as his QB. Imagine what he can do with the talent of Daunte Culpepper taking over the job this year! Chambers is the clear #1 WR in Miami, so look him to become Culpepper’s next Randy Moss.

Anquan Boldin, Arizona — Boldin is going to get a ton of yards this year, as teams will have to focus on James and Fitzgerald. The only question on Boldin is how many TDs will he score? Now that the Edge is in the backfield and Fitzgerald is becoming a star, Boldin might only see a handful. He is the ideal guy to target as your 2nd WR, but you might have problems if he’s your #1 guy.

Roy Williams, Detroit – Well, we know how much success Torry Holt has had the last few years. A lot of that was due to the offense designed by so-called genius Mike Martz, and Martz is now the offensive coordinator in D-Town. He will want Williams to play the Holt role in the offense, and if he can get decent QB play from Jon Kitna/Josh McCown, will have a career year.

2nd/3rd WR:
None of these guys should be targeted as anything but a 2nd or 3rd WR. They are all good players but not at the elite level. I wouldn’t draft any of these guys before Round 6.

Deion Branch, New England
Andre Johnson, Houston
Donald Driver, Green Bay
Santana Moss, Washington
Plaxico Burress, NY Giants
Darrell Jackson, Seattle
Joe Horn, New Orleans
Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati

Sleepers:
All of these guys have some huge upside this year and will move to new heights with solid QB play and a lot of balls thrown to them. These players will be undervalued, so you might try and wait until later rounds to pick them up:

Lee Evans, Buffalo
Reggie Brown, Philadelphia
Matt Jones, Jacksonville
Drew Bennett, Tennessee
Nate Burleson, Seattle
Mark Clayton, Baltimore
Roddy White, Atlanta

Senior Citizens:
These are all veterans of the league who will be more reliable and should do well as a 3rd WR for you. All of these guys will still have plenty of passes thrown their way:

Muhsin Muhammad, Chicago
Derrick Mason, Baltimore
Rod Smith, Denver
Laveraneus Coles, NY Jets
Isaac Bruce, St. Louis
Eddie Kennison, Kansas City
Keenan McCardell, San Diego
Terry Glenn, Dallas
Eric Moulds, Houston

Question Marks:
These players could be huge or could be total busts, depending on their situation. If you’re a risk taker, target these guys ahead of the Senior Citizens above:

Javon Walker, Denver
Donte’ Stallworth, New Orleans
Antonio Bryant, San Francisco
Jerry Porter, Oakland
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
Antwaan Randle-El, Washington

Rookies:
None of the rookies drafted this year will make much of an impact fantasy-wise, but here they are:

Chad Jackson, New England – Should be the best of the rookie class, might end up with the starting job and is probably not a bad pick in the late rounds.
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh – Has had off-field issues and is the #3 WR in Pittsburgh, at best.
Sinorice Moss, NY Giants – Santana’s little brother will be the #3 guy. With Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey at TE, and Tiki Barber catching passes out of the backfield, he will not have many opportunities.

Super Sleepers:
These are the guys to target in the late rounds and might be those “players who seem to come out of nowhere” that I was discussing earlier:

Ernest Wilford, Jacksonville
Eric Parker, San Diego
Samie Parker, Kansas City
Mark Bradley, Chicago
Cedrick Wilson, Pittsburgh
Doug Gabriel, Oakland
Arnaz Battle, San Francisco
Charles Rogers, Detroit
Troy Williamson, Minnesota
Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo
Rod Gardner, Green Bay
Bryant Johnson, Arizona
Tyrone Calico, Tennessee

Hopefully you now have a better handle on this important position, but as I said don’t freak out if you don’t get 2 top WRs. All you have to do is pay attention to the box scores and your waiver wire each week and you should be fine. I guarantee there will be at least one guy that I haven’t even mentioned that will be starting on someone’s team at the end of the year. That’s just the way the WRs roll. Good luck!

WagerWeb

New CFB Coaches

By Dan The Man Leach
Host of The
WagerWeb

It is never too early to start thinking about college football, the pageantry, the passion, the brilliance. Over the next month or so, I will count down the top 10 stories of the college football offseason and look ahead to the new season. Today, at No. 7, a look at teams that have new head coaches and new hope for a winning season or return to prominence.

The Big Schools

Colorado-(Old Coach)-Gary Barnett-(New Coach)-Dan Hawkins
WagerWeb

To Win The Bcs National Title)-125-1: This was by far the biggest coaching change of the year as the embattled Barnett finally left Boulder and one of the hottest coaching candidates in years, Hawkins comes in. Look for the results to show immediately as Hawkins is one of the best football minds in the country, and his scheme is just what the Buffs need to reclaim their glory in the Big 12.

Kansas State-(Bill Snyder)-Ron Prince-200-1: Snyder took this team from one of the worst programs in college football to a true national power for a stretch. His legacy will never be forgotten, and Prince has Kansas roots and will look to bridge the gap between the immortal Snyder and the fans in Manhattan who might not know just how important Snyder was to this program. Look for the ‘Cats to turn some heads right off the bat as Prince’s first recruiting class has some blue-chippers that will make this team a scoring threat from Day 1.

Wisconsin-(Barry Alvarez)-Bret Bielema-70-1: Speaking of legends, Alvarez is the Bill Snyder of the Midwest/Big Ten. Bielema is a Big Ten guy and a defensive-minded guy, so Alvarez fans will fall in love with him right away. The Badgers will definitely need to reinvent themselves as much of their success was due to Alvarez’s amazing ability to recruit, but at 36 Bielema is already viewed as a uniter who can sell water to the ocean and is committed to keeping things fresh in Madison.

Big Coach On Campus

San Diego State-(Tom Craft)-Chuck Long-45-1: A familiar football name takes over a program that has been anything but familiar on the national stage since a guy named Faulk played RB there. Long has been groomed for the past several years under Bob Stoops at Oklahoma to take over a program, and it could not have come at a better time for the Aztecs. Long was on board for the Sooners’ national title in 2000 and immediately brings credibility to the recruiting process because of that. It will be sooner (no pun intended), rather than later when we see the Aztecs making some waves nationally again.

Boise State-(Dan Hawkins)-Chris Peterson- 45-1: Hawkins built a national power on that blue turf in Boise, and Peterson will pick up right were Hawkins left off. He was the offensive coordinator and QB coach for the past five seasons under Hawkins, and many feel he has what it takes to keep pushing the Broncos higher and higher to BCS legitimacy. Look for Boise to continue to score in bunches and continue to schedule some of the toughest teams that dare play on the blue turf.

Temple-(Bobby Wallace)-Al Golden-45-1: One of the worst teams in recent I-A history has nowhere to go but up. The Owls are slated to join the MAC in 2007, but could be banished out of Division I-A altogether if they don’t get their attendance up. Golden has been a hot name in coaching the past couple of seasons, and the Temple AD is hoping that he has found the Rocky Balboa that this program needs desperately. Rocky’s odds were never has dismal as Temple’s, however.

Rice-(Ken Hatfield)-Todd Graham-45-1: The Owls have had their struggles for years now, but Graham is the kind of football mind and talent who could lead Rice out of the doldrums and into respectability in Conference USA. It has been 45 years since Rice was invited to a bowl game, but with Graham knowing the Texas landscape it shouldn’t be nearly as long as it once seemed for Rice to go bowling. Look for this team to make a gradual climb over this season to moderate respectability in C-USA.

Tragedy

Northwestern-(Randy Walker-Deceased)- Patrick Fitzgerald-45-1: Fitzgerald, 31, a former Wildcats linebacker, becomes the youngest head coach in Division I-A due to very tough circumstances as he takes over for Walker, who passed away from a heart attack at 52. Fitzgerald is loved by the players, the fans and the university and has a great opportunity to celebrate the legacy of Coach Walker as the 2006 season will be played in his memory. This may be a few years early before Fitzgerald was ready to become a head coach, but he has the talent, passion and desire to take the Wildcats to heights rarely reached before. Look for Northwestern to play truly inspired football all season in the tough and deep Big Ten.

WagerWeb

Fantasy Tip of the Week – RB Rankings

By Chris Goudey

WagerWeb

The key position you need to focus on to have a championship fantasy football team is running back. Running backs are the core of almost any winning team for two reasons: They usually score the most points of any player, and they are normally the most reliable players. In almost every league I draft, I will take RBs with my first two picks because they are that important. In my previous article, I gave you a breakdown on what your overall draft should look like, but this article will focus strictly on which RB you should target and when.

The Big 3
Larry Johnson, Kansas City
After taking over for the injured Priest Holmes midway through last season, all LJ did was set the league on fire and become the most dominant player in fantasy. With Holmes either not playing or on the bench this year, Johnson has a shot at breaking the single-season rushing record if he can stay healthy. He is the clear No. 1 pick.
Shaun Alexander, Seattle
The reigning league MVP should put up similar numbers to last year, and if you have the No.2 pick, you should feel lucky to grab such a great player. Alexander is the most consistent RB to come along in years, and he plays on a good team, so he should be churning out the yards late in games to close them out.
LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego
I would say at least 75 percent of fantasy drafts this year are going to have LJ, Alexander and LT going in the top 3 spots. Tomlinson was the top-rated RB going into last year, and while he had a good year he has been passed up by the top two. San Diego might struggle this season, so LT might not have as many rushing opportunities as the other two, but he is a much better receiver than LJ and Alexander, so if your league counts receptions and/or receiving yards, you can’t go wrong with him.

The Next 3
Edgerrin James, Arizona
As I stated in my last article, the top 7 picks in my mind are the big 3 RBs, Peyton Manning and these next 3 RBs. These three RBs aren’t in any particular order, so be happy to get any one of these guys if you’re in the 4-7 slots in the first round. The Edge moves to the desert of Arizona and should continue to be a top-flight producer even though he moves away from the high-powered of offense of Indianapolis. Arizona actually might have as good a passing game as Indy this year, with Kurt Warner at QB and top 10 receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to take the focus off of James. The Cardinals also have a very good offensive line, so Edge should be just as good as he’s ever been.
Tiki Barber, NY Giants
No back has more heart than Tiki, and the past two years he has turned into a premier RB. His production is close to that of the top 3, but the only reason he is grouped lower is because of his age. Tiki is 31 this year, and most RBs really start to lose it once they hit the big 3-0. As I said, Tiki has a ton of heart and will always do everything he can to get on the field, but this should really be his last top-level year. If you’re drafting in a keeper league, I’d move Tiki down in your rankings.
Clinton Portis, Washington
Portis is the one back I really see making a noticeable improvement this year, and the reason is that the ‘Skins have hired former KC offensive coordinator Al Saunders. Saunders was the engineer of KC’s running game for the past few years and turned Priest Holmes (and Larry Johnson last year) into a fantasy force. The plan is to use Portis exactly the way Holmes was used the past few seasons, so if he can stay healthy Portis could put up top 3 numbers. The only X mark on Portis’ resume is he does get nicked up a lot, so make sure you draft Ladell Betts, his backup, in a middle-to-late round.

Potential, Potential, Potential
I will rank these guys in order of preference, with a note about each. Remember, once the top 7 are gone you can start to pick these guys and feel just fine about it. If you are at the end of the first round (pick 8 or later) go ahead and draft a RB here and then assuming it’s a snake draft (where you’ll pick near the beginning of the 2nd round), take the next best RB. There are no QBs or WRs who are as good a value here as having two good RBs.
Steven Jackson, St. Louis – Look for Jackson to have a career year this year due to two things: Marshall Faulk is now out for the year (and possibly his career), and new coach Scott Linehan wants to focus on the run.
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati – Rudi has slimmed down and wants to take a step up to the top level of RBs. He has been very productive and reliable thus far, but the only drawback to him is that he isn’t much of a receiver and the Bengals love his backup, Chris Perry.
Kevin Jones, Detroit – I probably have him ranked a lot higher than most other experts, but I really think Mike Martz will do wonders with him. He sees him as his next Marshall Faulk and is going to do everything he can to get him the ball. If Detroit can get decent QB play out of Jon Kitna (or Josh McCown), KJ is going to be a stud.
LaMont Jordan, Oakland – After having watched Jordan play in college and play behind Curtis Martin for a couple of years with the Jets, I knew he’d be a great player if given the opportunity. He got that shot last year with the Raiders, and much like Kevin Jones just needs good QB play to turn him into a star.
Ronnie Brown, Miami – With Ricky Williams heading to Canada to do whatever it is Ricky does, Brown gets his shot as the lead RB for the Fins. Coach Nick Saban has big plans for Brown and needs him to be the complement to the passing game he is trying to implement with Daunte Culpepper. There’s a reason Miami took him so high in the draft last year, and this year we’ll see why.
Julius Jones, Dallas – JJ could be a superstar if only Bill Parcells would let him. Parcells seems to have a soft spot in his heart for Marion Barber III and plans to give him more carries than he should. Watching Jones in his rookie year I saw a lot of the same things Walter Payton brought to the table and thought he would be incredible in his sophomore season. This is a situation to monitor closely in the preseason. If Jones looks like he’ll get 25 carries per game, I’d rank him even higher. If not, he stays here or moves down if Barber gets more carries.
Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay – Cadillac had a great rookie year and is very tough. The only reason I have him this low is the presence of Michael Pittman and the fact that Williams is a little on the smallish side. He is a great runner, but I have a feeling he’s going to be injury-prone once he takes a lot of pounding.
Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia – Westbrook is like Tomlinson-lite. If you’re in a league where receiving is important, Westbrook moves to the top of this group. With the departure of Terrell Owens, coach Andy Reid has stated he plans to run the ball a lot more and Westbrook will be the beneficiary, IF he can stay healthy.
Willis McGahee, Buffalo – McGahee is just as talented as those above him, but he has a lot of question marks coming into this year. His primary problem is lack of good QB play. Without a good passing game, teams are going to stack eight in the box and shut Willis down. If JP Losman can take some pressure off McGahee, then he can return to the level he was at going into last year.
Domanick Davis, Houston – Davis has potential to move to the top of this list, but like the others here he has issues to overcome. The first issue is he is currently injured and is a question mark to begin the season. The second is lack of a passing game, much like McGahee. If David Carr can get a solid connection going with Andre Johnson and new WR Eric Moulds, then Davis should be a top-10 guy.
Jamal Lewis, Baltimore – Potential, potential, potential. Every year Lewis is ranked highly, and every year except one he has not lived up to it. He’s either been hurt or in jail and now he has competition in Mike Anderson. Lewis has the skills to be a top-3 guy but he is really a question mark this year.
Reggie Bush, New Orleans – He will probably be overvalued in your drafts and will go much higher than he should. There happens to be an All-Pro back already in the New Orleans backfield going by the name of Deuce. He’s going to take a lot of the carries Bush should get, but like Westbrook Bush will be much more valuable in a league with receptions and/or a big emphasis on receiving yards.

The Rookies
All of these guys are in similar situations, currently the backup but with poor performance or injury by the starting RB, they could shine:
Laurence Maroney, New England
Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
LenDale White, Tennessee
Keep an eye on their situations during the preseason and try to grab them in a middle round if it looks like they’ll help you. These are also guys to grab as backups to the main guy. I often like to grab a tandem of guys, and then I’m guaranteed to have the starter every week.

The Best Of The Rest
All of these guys have issues: age, uncertain playing time or just not as good as what they once were. These should be guys you target as your third back. These are in preferential order.
Cedric Benson, Chicago — assuming he wins the job over Thomas Jones
Tatum Bell, Denver — assuming he wins the job over Ron Dayne
Chester Taylor, Minnesota — I like him as a sleeper
Warrick Dunn, Atlanta — bound to breakdown sometime and has T.J. Duckett to share carries with
Reuben Droughns, Cleveland – has the job but just isn’t that great.
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh – Good for yards but not for TDs.
Deuce McAllister, New Orleans – Moves way up if Bush doesn’t sign soon but will still be a decent 3rd RB for your team even if he splits time.
DeShaun Foster, Carolina – Productive when he plays but has injury issues and DeAngelo Williams to deal with.
Frank Gore, San Francisco – Splits carries with Kevan Barlow but should take over the starting job by the end of the year.
Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis – Will start out with the job but Joseph Addai is more talented.
Thomas Jones, Chicago – Will probably lose his job to Benson, but if he starts he moves up to a top-15 guy.
Fred Taylor, Jacksonville – Avoid if possible, but he has a shot to be productive. He’s just so unreliable.
Ahman Green, Green Bay – How the mighty have fallen. He was a top-two RB two years ago and is now fighting to stay on the field and to keep his job. Age, a bad offense and Samkon Gado are his problems.
Ron Dayne, Denver – Will probably back up Bell, but should he get the job he moves up to the top 15. Denver always gets great RB production. I’d draft the Bell-Dayne tandem and hope for the best.
Curtis Martin, NY Jets – Stay away. Stay far away. He’s half the player he once was and will get picked much earlier than he should.

WagerWeb

Handicapping The Chase Field

By Bill Kiser

WagerWeb

went to its present championship format two years ago, the thinking was that the “Chase for the Championship” would rivet race fans to their televisions for the final 10 races of the season.

But the public’s attention hasn’t so much been drawn to those final 10 races, but to the 10 races leading up to the Chase.

The “Chase for the Chase,” as some media have coined it, has seen the top 10 in the NASCAR
WagerWeb

Nextel Cupstandings change drastically from race to race, with drivers in the top 10 one week and on the outside looking in the next.

According to NASCAR’s computations, 34 drivers are mathematically in contention to make the Chase for the Championship; realistically, the number of drivers who have a chance entering next week’s Brickyard 400 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is not half that.

And even sitting in the top 10 in points — heck, even in the top five — at this point of the season won’t ensure a driver a spot in the final 10 come September.

There’s historical precedent backing that up — last year, Elliott Sadler was third in points entering the Pepsi 400 at Daytona International Speedway and was considered locked in for the Chase.

But Sadler and his No. 38 Robert Yates Racing team slumped badly down the stretch, falling 10 spots in the point standings and ultimately failing to make the Chase.

With six races left in the “Chase for the Chase,” only two drivers — points leader Jimmie Johnson and No. 2 Matt Kenseth — appear to be near-locks to make the final 10.

Beyond that, however, things are still very much up in the air — only 188 points separate third through 12th place in the Nextel Cup standings.

Here’s a quick look at how I believe the “Chase for the Chase” is stacking up, followed by my picks to make the Chase for the Championship.

99.9 PERCENT THERE: Jimmie Johnson (first in standings), Matt Kenseth (second in standings, 97 back of Johnson).

THEY’RE IN, BUT …: Jeff Burton (third in standings, 318 back of Johnson), Kyle Busch (fourth in standings, 39 points behind Burton), Kevin Harvick (fifth in standings, 19 points behind Busch), Mark Martin (sixth in points, six points behind Harvick).

ON THE FENCE: Kasey Kahne (seventh in standings, 42 points behind Martin), Denny Hamlin (eighth in standings, one point behind Kahne), Jeff Gordon (ninth in standings, two points behind Hamlin).

NEEDS SOME HELP: Tony Stewart (10th in standings, 35 points behind Gordon), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (11th in standings, 15 points behind Stewart), Greg Biffle (12th in standings, 29 points behind Earnhardt).

FORGET IT: Kurt Busch (13th in standings, 122 points behind Biffle), Carl Edwards (14th in standings, 69 points behind Busch), Casey Mears (15th in standings, 57 points behind Edwards), Brian Vickers (16th in standings, 51 points behind Mears), Jamie McMurray (17th in standings, 46 points behind Vickers), Ryan Newman (18th in standings, eight points behind McMurray), Clint Bowyer (19th in standings, 16 points behind Newman), Elliott Sadler (20th in standings, 29 points behind Bowyer).

KISER’S PICKS: Johnson, Kenseth, Burton, Busch, Harvick, Martin, Kahne, Gordon, Stewart, Earnhardt.

WagerWeb