Category Archives: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy is the world’s most published author on sports betting strategy discusses virtually every aspect of winning in sports gambling.

Press Releases

Top 3 Sites With Early Bird Specials

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Bet
It Trinity Sites Announce Early Bird Specials

Address for site: http://www.joeduffy.net/

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website:  Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com,
KnockoutPicks.com
  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Saturday, June 17,
2006

“Top 3 Handicapping Websites on the Web
Announce Joint and Individual Early Bird Specials”

PLAINVIEW, NY–The
Bet it Trinty sites
featured at JoeDuffy.net:
Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com, KnockoutPicks.com  have announced “Early Bird Special” prices for
football season.  This includes a Universal
Pass: all three sites, starting with the Hall of Fame
game until the Super Bowl for just $3,999.

All three sites and the Universal
Pass will be:

v    
Activated Sunday, August 6 and run through the
Super Bowl, Sunday, February 4.

v    
EXCEPTION: 182 days (179 betting days and 3 day
MLB break) will be added to the end of subscriptions still active on August 6.
No one ever loses a day when renewing early for any Bet it Trinity site

v    
Include all sports: college and pro football,
college and pro basketball, baseball and hockey

Site

Daily Retail

Price

Early Bird

Price

Savings

Godspicks.com

$3,043

$1,348

$1,695

KnockoutPicks.com  

$4,475

$2,499

$1,976

AllianceHandicapping.com

$2,148

$750

$1,398

Universal Pass (all 3)

$9,666

$3,999

$5,667

 

As our credit card company limits us to $999 per
transaction, to get the package for Godspicks.com, please purchase BOTH the $999
and the $349 monthly and we will manually add you. AllianceHandicapping.com
can be purchased in one credit card transaction. KnockoutPicks.com
and the Universal pass must use alternate
forms of payment as listed at JoeDuffy.net.
 This includes personal check, money order, cashier’s check made payable to AJA Enterprises, 3000 Old
Alabama Road, Suite 119–205, Alpharetta, GA 30022 

Alliancehandiapping.com gives you the highest rated plays from the
highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search our
database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones,
television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip
sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a
fraction of the cost.

Godspicks.com is America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. Joe
Duffy is the most published author on gaming strategy and is a true legend in
handicapping since his JD of the ACC scorephone days.  Partner Mike Godsey is without question the
top NFL handicapper.

KnockoutPicks.com
is led by forensic
handicapper  Stevie Vincent. The Great One is the original Executive
Editor of the famed scorephone “Tailgate Party”

 


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

When To Specify Pitchers

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When to Specify Pitchers in Betting Baseball

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a
baseball bet.  As a point of fact, injudiciously
many handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers.  Few articles we’ve ever written have gotten
as much response along the lines of “eye opening” in many cases even years
later, than our “Clichés
about Pitching and Defense are Offensive” essay.

We document the truth that many would consider
sacrilegious—that so many gamblers overvalue pitching, oblivious to how much
the odds have starting pitching built in. Before your blood boils, if you never
read said column, go to the archives at JoeDuffy.net and read it
with an open mind.  Don’t judge right
away. Track the theories for a few months and even years, as many of our
converts have.  We look forward to your
feedback.

Remember though, the key in baseball betting is not
winning percentage.  Chalk addicts can
hit 60 percent of their plays and lose money, while dog specialists (ahem) can
hit 45 percent of their plays and win. 
Knowledge and proper management of probability/risk ratio is what
baseball handicapping is all about. 

A major danger in designating pitchers is if a great deal
of your handicapping has to do with the teams involved, you could get screwed
by a last minute scratch pitcher.  A
large percentage of changed hurlers involve a pitcher getting scratched in
warm-ups, where there is little time to change a bet.
A last minute pitching change may not change how you feel on the game, but it
screws you out of a play.

The 2006 NY Yankees have had their share of injuries.  Perhaps you are waiting on them to get 100
percent healthy among their starting eight and ride them during an anticipated
winning streak.  Or say the Pirates have
an on base percentage of .398 over their last seven games.  They face a Met team that is hitting .208
their last seven games with an on base percentage of just .252 and their
overused and injury riddled bullpen is struggling as well.

Furthermore the game is in Pittsburgh
where in location comparison (home team’s home stats, road team’s road stats)
the Pirates are excelling. Yet based on the fact Pedro Martinez is pitching for
the Mets, Pittsburgh (after the
juice) is a 160 dog.

The square player may actually believe this would be a
rare case in which not listing Martinez
would be a good play, because if he’s scratched, it would increase the Pirates
chance of winning.

Perhaps, but sharp players only wonder would it improve the
probability/risk ratio?

The probability/risk ratio says the Pirates would have to
have at least a 38 percent chance of winning (at plus-160) to make it a good
percentage play.  You handicap they have
a 52 percent for a +14 percent net.  Hence
it’s a good bet.

Your selection is in no way going against Martinez,
but since the odds and hence the probability/risk ratio is based on Martinez
pitching, this is a circumstance in which we would specify we are going against
Martinez.

Why?  Alay Soler becomes the Mets
pitcher and it increases our chances of winning only to 57 percent, because it
was offensive, momentum and bullpen factors behind our original play. But the
new pitching matchup makes Pittsburgh
a 145 favorite, which requires a 59.2 winning percentage.  You’ve only handicapped Pittsburgh
to have a 57 percent chance, so your probability/risk ratio is a negative 2.7
percent. Hence going with Pittsburgh
is a bad bet.

Most gamblers who don’t blindly always delineate pitchers
subscribe to what seem like obvious rules of thumb:

·       
If your bet is based predominately on going
against or for one pitcher, specify only that pitcher

·       
If your bet is based on a combination and
preponderance of going for one and against the other pitcher, specify both

·       
If your bet has minimal pitching advantage but
is based on one team having a huge edge, specify neither pitcher

 

But the flaw in that thinking is it overlooks our favorite
circumstance:

·       
Picking with a team despite having a pitching
disadvantage and hence disproportionately beneficial odds (example as above: betting
the hot, much better-at-home Pirates against the struggling Mets with Martinez)

 

Some may think that it’s a good idea to cover your assets
and always specify pitchers based on what we said.  Nope. 
Anytime we are picking team against team and it does not involve picking
against a star pitcher or picking with a stiff pitcher, a scratch is unlikely
to drastically change the probability/risk ratio, so we don’t specify starters.

A devil’s advocate may point out what if you are picking
with Braves who have beneficial odds thanks to Jorge Sosa pitching, but he is
scratched.  John Smoltz
is next in line and he starts.  The risk
is we go from picking a huge dog to a huge favorite by not specifying pitchers.
  

The reason we are more often willing to take that
particular risk is managers are much more cautious with their star pitchers and
an undisputed ace isn’t as likely to be thrown in on a moment’s notice.  But we still acknowledge that
probability/risk ratio potential pitfall. Hence, one has to strongly consider
the likely starters for each team in the event of a scratch pitcher.

Thankfully scratch pitchers are not extremely common and
over a long season specifying and not specifying pitchers is very doubtful to
make the difference in a winning and losing season.  However we accurately preach every small edge
adds up, so don’t underestimate the importance of when and when not to check
and uncheck one or both starters.

Overlooking the probability/risk ratio involved is a major
facet that keeps square players subsidizing the books for the rest of us.

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net We start the
week out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com , top computer trends from forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar,
sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net 

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Never Assume the Obvious

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Never Assume the Obvious Is My Heartfelt Advice

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

I don’t want to toot my own horn, but too late, I’m going
to.  I have had many a webmaster, content
manager, editor etc., tell me that they love my articles because I actually
have original ideas and substance. 

But I don’t want to toot my own horn. 

The horror stories are the same regarding the gobblygook from the touts-come-lately: 95 percent of the
articles submitted fit into one of three categories.  The first is the cheesy sales pitch, “It
takes contacts, information and hours of work. 
I have that…yada yada.”  No elaboration or substantiation follows,
just a rambling sales pitch in which a tout thinks qualifies for publication.

The next is the ever popular money management article in
which half the touts only expose that they don’t understand the concept
themselves. Finally there is the overstating and regurgitation of the self
evident.  Topping the list of toutspeak is “bet with your head, not with your
heart.” 

While I can’t deny there are degenerates who must be
reminded of that no-so-enlightened epiphany, every wannabee
handicapper believes they are speaking from Mt.
Sinai in asserting the apparent.

Yet in the favorite-team-of-the-moment that is sports
gambling, there is a less glaring truth within the heart/head rule. Bet with
your head and not your broken heart. 
It’s amazing how many intelligent people with total seriousness have
told me that for example the last four of five times they bet for or against
the Sheboygan Shamrocks they lost.  Hence
they refuse to bet on a game involving them. “I just can’t seem to get a handle
on them, so I avoid them altogether” I’ve heard.

Sometimes I hear somebody tell me that Team X has been
“too good to me when I’ve bet on them. I can’t bet against them”.   Save your loyalties for your spouse or
girlfriend…or both.  Betting is often
about loving and leaving at the appropriate moment.  

Simply put it comes down to what we call “psychological
juice”.  The best handicappers will lose
40 percent of the time and accept it as the cost of doing business. When the
square player loses with for example Duke over Western Michigan,
he seems to find consolation in knowing he lost with a superior team.

Smart players find solace only if they canceled it out
with two winners.  Yet if somehow the
typical gambler has Western Michigan plus-24 points and
they lose by 26, it becomes once bitten, twice shy. Losing with the greatly
inferior team causes the gambler to second guess himself much more than a chalk
coming up short ever will. 

The same can be said with totals. There is no glory
seemingly in betting the Phoenix Suns to go under the total.  And while I will admit to despising it when my
handicapping comes up with Phoenix under, or for example the Rams under in the
Martz era, I can’t allow the fear of heart stomping sweating out the total
until the end get in the way of my bets.

It takes a lot of guts for me to publicly admit to knowing
Bee Gees lyrics, but in their song “How Can You Mend a Broken Heart” they ask
“How can a loser ever win?”

A loser can win by not betting with his broken heart.

Today’s free winner (no password needed), late
breaking information as game time approaches, and advanced news and notes are at JoeDuffy.net
 Premium picks are at www.godspicks.com

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Sports Betting News, Notes, for Sharp Gambler

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This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Vent My Spleen, Part 1

The first 21 Tid-Bets were either discussing strategy or commentary on social issues related to gambling.  But I have to do something I can’t stand: whine a little.  

As long time clients know, we more than hold our own when it comes to winning more than we lose. Yet over the last three years, when a baseball game goes into extra innings or a hockey game into OT, we have no chance.  I don’t think any logic can explain our polar opposite ROI when it comes to regulation and overtime games.

Thankfully there are a lot more games that end in regulation than overtime.  But whomever out there has the voodoo doll with my handsome mug on it, please tell me what I’ve ever done to you to make you put the overtime whammy on me. 

I know life’s not fair, but this OT/extra inning jinx just isn’t justified.

More Shout Outs

Like we said, we never hesitate to shout out to other gambling sites when they deserve it. Congratulations to Eog.com for landing professional oddsmaker, the respected Russ Culver to produce exclusive content for them.  Personally, I’m looking forward to see what it will be.

Russ was formally associated with Vegas Insider, which does a good job with injuries.  It’s a “cheat sheet” for us to ensure we didn’t miss key player statuses, but we always
dig deeper to corroborate.  However, VI is a nice starting point.

My hat is off to Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com who was my editor during my many years of broadcasting the various scorephone “Tailgate
Parties”.  No surprise to those of us who knew him and worked with him, he is quickly becoming the most respected “numbers guy” in handicapping. But he tells us even he looks beyond his “forensic handicapping.”.  

We Monitor Bullpens More Closely as Dog Days Approach

One could reasonably say the reason our extra innings record is not close to being on par with our overall record has to do with we don’t use bullpen statistics as much as some of the few elite handicappers do.  Of course that wouldn’t explain our NHL overtime jinx. Nor does it end the mystery as to why the extra frame struggles started three years ago, after two decades of picking winners.   

But regardless, with the season going deeper and hot, humid weather approaching; we do weigh bullpen performance, both overall and recent more than we do early in the year. Like starting pitching, we evaluate WHIP a notch above ERA.  

Of course number of innings pitched recently by the closer and top two setup men is huge as well. We’ve written articles about the virtues of boxscores in handicapping and arguably when it
comes to analyzing bullpens, that facet of research doesn’t get bigger.

There will be instances and not that infrequent when a closer pitches three days in a row, often in 90 degree weather.  This is actually the type of morsel that the baseball channel on XM Radio has really helped us out with, not to mention listening to the hometown broadcasts on such. Also the fantasy baseball sites are yet another fact checking reinforcement and we aremore and more liking daily write-ups on MLB.com for bullet points for the ah, you know, serious baseball fan.

Winning sports handicapper intel is sponsored by MyBookie.ag. Get the largest bonus MyBookie offers if and only if you use the promo code, “Duffy.”

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Press Releases

LIMITED TIME OFFER: ALLIANCE FOR $3.63 PER DAY

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Address for site: http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website:  Alliancehandicapping.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday,
May 17, 2006

“Limited Time Offer, Every Top Sports Service
Play until October 1, 2006; End of MLB Season for Just $500”

PLAINVIEW, NY–AllianceHandicapping.com,
the nation’s top online betting syndicate is making a phenomenal offer: all the
top sports service plays in all sports until the last day of the pro baseball
regular season, October 1 (though current clients will have 138 days added to
their account).  This offer expires 9:00 P.M. Pacific, Saturday night May 20.  The price is $500, which amounts to about $3.63 per
day.

AllianceHandicapping.com has its
roots on a Long Island golf course when several high
rollers decided to pool their money to purchase sports service selections of a
dozen or so top handicapping firms.  Via
word of mouth, the syndicate grew to several dozen members quickly, almost all
members betting several thousand dollars per game on a daily basis.

Eventually the Alliance
decided to go public with the plays as a business venture to subsidize their
gaming combine. Why now to the general public offer the same information for
$3.63 per day? “First of all, this price is an introductory price.  We know clients will stay with us and while
they will still get elite service selections for pennies on the dollar, it
won’t be at that price when they renew” founding father Dom Vincenzio
stated perhaps too matter-of-factly.

“It’s a business venture,” stated Cy
McCormick.  “Our original intentions have
been exceeded.  We are all making money on
the leisurely end already.  With the
quality of sports services offered, we plan on turning a profit purely by
reselling the plays as well.”

As members of the syndicate include major players in the
computer programming field, AllianceHandicapping.com wrote an
exclusive program that rates sports services overall and in each individual
sport.  Using “z-scores” a mathematical
formula that weighs the statistical reliability of data, sports services are
rated based mostly on long term return on investment records, but with some
consideration given to “who’s hot”.

Data mining was used to determine what percentage will be
assigned to weigh various factors. Included is measuring long-term versus short
term record, each sport individually versus overall record, and the subcategory
of higher rated plays versus “regular” rated plays, etc.

Alliancehandiapping.com gives you the
highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated
sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet,
scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number
handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more
times than not at a fraction of the cost.

Press Releases

Top 3 Sites Free

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Contact Information: Cy McCormick

Address for site: http://www.joeduffy.net

E-mail: mvp@joeduffy.net

Website:  Joe Duffy
Online

FOR IMMEDIATE
RELEASE: Monday, May 01, 2006

“Limited Time Offer by MVP
Sportsbook in Conjunction with The Bet It Trinity,
Get the Trinity For Free”

SAN JOSE.
COSTA RICA–MVP Sportsbook (http://mvpsportsbook.com/)
has announced that they will purchase free plays of the Bet It Trinity:
Alliance Handicapping (http://www.alliancehandicapping.com/)  KnockoutPicks (http://www.knockoutpicks.com) and
Godspicks (http://www.godspicks.com) for
first time sportsbook depositors who say they were referred by Alliance
Handicapping.

New accounts of
$100 or more get three free days of all three Trinity sites.  New deposits
of $200 get a full week of all three sites. 
If you are current subscriber to the Trinity
or any of the three sites, all days are added to your current account.

Depositors to MVP Sportsbook need only be first time
clients to MVP, but there are no restrictions to whether they are current,
former or never-before clients to Alliance Handicapping, KnockoutPicks
or Godspicks.  In fact, all current
subscribers will have the time added to their current account. 

The steps to take advantage of this limited time offer are
simple:

1.     
Set up an account at MVP Sportsbook (http://mvpsportsbook.com/) by calling them
at 1-888-771-9076

2.     
Tell the customer service agent that JoeDuffy.net sent
you

3.     
Deposit at least $100

4.     
If you are a first time depositor, email mvp@joeduffy.net with your name and PIN
number and within 24 hours you will be sent your login information for Alliance
Handicapping

 

JoeDuffy.net is
your source for FREE news and notes to compliment your favorite database, free
sports service picks, ATS trends and more

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Are Parlays Good Bets? No, Plus More Sports Gambling Info

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We are presenting the latest in a series of a series of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout.” First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.

But to answer the oft-asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”

This is even truer in baseball, whereby design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet again widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.

We believe there are actual “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self-control and little delusions.

Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often but do so to have a good time first and foremost.  Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.

It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him, that is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.

We see no other use for parlays.  

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the most significant gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually every sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.

He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records,  yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore, they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI.”

Stevie Vincent believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports.  “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”  

Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com, agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well-marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge.  That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.

As we’ve said, Internet radio is precious in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few.  Finally, the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online.

A real sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices.  No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game-time decision.”

The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.  

The number of sources for real-time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.

Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at www.joeduffy.net.

 

 

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Sharp vs. Square Betting, WHIP, NHL Betting Myths

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This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Sharp versus Square FAQ

As clients know, we have had enormous success with sharp versus square plays. That means most of the sharp players are going one way and most of the sucker players the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts.  We go with the sharp money.  Our article “Sharp Players Don’t Disappear, They Just Fade Away” explains why such data truly works. 

It was a question from a loyal client who made us aware we were a bit fallible when we said “money” rather than “players”. Sharp players are almost always high rollers, but they are greatly outnumbered by the square investor, who covers a wide profile ranging from a $5 player to the $5,000 a game degenerate.

It’s “one man, one vote” as far as we are concerned.  Contrarian information from a $10 four-team parlay player can be as valuable as, and in most cases arguably more valuable than that from a dime player.  Also parlay selections are tabulated the same way individual plays would be.

As enlightened above, parlay players are a contrarian kingpin’s best friend. 

Can’t Claim Any Myths in the NHL

We’ve made a lot of money over the years exposing myths in sports betting.  Many of the false convictions, as we point out, are examples of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.  However in the NHL playoffs, a hot goalie and quality special teams are the big X-factor.  The difference between the two elements is that overall not recent performance would be most important when handicapping power play and penalty killing.  But the common idea it true, nothing is better than a netminder who enters the postseason “in the zone.”

WHIP it Real Good Baseball Handicapper

We had written an article that many of you raved about as being enlightening on ERA versus WHIP in baseball handicapping. Add one of the sharpest minds in sports handicapping history, Stevie
Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com to list of sharp players who believe WHIP is the most underutilized tool in handicapping.

Vincent, a veteran actually uses walks/hits per game as his official stat.  It’s the same statistic just calculated over a full game rather than by inning. Vincent was using it before WHIP became chic by the roto geeks. Hence the slight difference which is nothing more than semantics. 

Vincent in fact believes “picking baseball totals is now the easiest way to win in any type of gambling: horses, craps, poker, blackjack, you name it.” Vincent weighs walks/hits per game first with each starter, using last three starts, last seven starts, year to date both overall and home/away, and then he utilizes each starter’s career stats in the game day ballpark.  Like us, he prefers bestowing a pitcher’s cumulative batting average against to the opposing team’s current players much more than the more widely used pitcher’s career stats against that team.

“That way if an AL pitcher came from the NL and faced Gary Sheffield when he played for the Braves, Dodgers, Florida, San Diego and Milwaukee, those stats are factored in.”  As Vincent points out, when lesser handicappers would instead simply use a pitcher’s career stats against the Yankees, it may take into consideration players who are no longer on the Bronx Bombers.

He acknowledges that can be the case when he uses ballpark stats, but as he points out “that’s what I want to measure, if a certain park caters to a pitcher’s strengths or exploits his weaknesses.”

Vincent says otherwise the ballpark stats would in many ways simply overlap with a pitcher’s lifetime stats against an opponent. “Gamblers’ double jeopardy” he calls it. Vincent than says that bullpen must be considered, but reading the boxscore from the night before is mandatory in knowing the availability of relief pitchers for the next day. 

Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Get his exclusive news and notes from his own clipboard at JoeDuffy.Net home of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown of top sports service plays. 

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

ERA Versus WHIP in Handicapping

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I share oodles of information and debate philosophies with many sharp players on a continuous basis. Such locking of horns is imperative to knowledge progression.  Said argumentations are to handicapping advisers what scholarly journals are to academia.

One of the most heated deliberations among the sharpest of the sharks is how to weigh a pitcher’s ERA relative to his WHIP.

I realize most baseball fans know what an ERA is, but many are not as versed on WHIP.  It’s walks+hits/innings pitched.  As much as I savor involving myself in debate with other masters of the trade, inevitably I am the one screaming the remedy is “both”.

I tell them it’s the equivalent of asking a doctor whether one should diet or exercise.  Sure conquering one or the other is better than neither, but any reputable physician advises they are not mutually exclusive.

A true handicapping scientist knows that careful interpretation of both ERA and WHIP neutralizes the inherent flaws of both while reinforcing the stronghold of each numerator.

Here is a pro-WHIP argument I often hear and articulated on rec.gambling. sports newsgroup by one of the participants:

The ERA can be affected by good fortunate (luck) far more than WHIP.

The walks and hits a pitcher gives up show his skills facing a batter and will rise as he continues to allow hits and walks—as it should.

But the same poor pitching, which allowed the walks and hits onboard, isn’t necessarily reflected in his ERA stat.  He may escape lucky. His ERA can be affected either direction by the help he gets from his mates and/or the wind and/or the size of the ballpark.

This is particularly important in the first handful of starts of the early season, where averages can be easily skewed by a few innings.

A pitcher allowing a 400’ shot to center for example when a breeze is blowing in or the fielder makes a circus catch over the wall—escapes with no runs scored, saving his ERA.

But in a different park the same 400’ shot to center is a homerun, or the wind blows it in the gap for a double to score a couple—and his ERA goes up!

So one fortunate guy gets a low ERA and the less fortunate guy, who allowed the SAME number of hits and walks, maybe even LESS, his ERA goes UP!

Meanwhile, the WHIP stat is not affected unfairly in that way, and as such I feel it more indicative of the pitcher’s skill.

I agree with many of the points raised but the dissertation was a bit one-sided review of the pros and cons.

WHIP can be very imperfect as well. It does not measure a pitcher’s ability to pitch out of tough situations or whether or not he gives up a disproportionate number of singles and walks relative to the pitcher who has a propensity to give up the long ball.

Pitchers who can get the ground ball double play when they need it or have the ability to bear down with runners in scoring position will generally do better in the ERA category than WHIP.

Plus in a discussion with some of the top baseball predictors on the planet, one of the elite of the elite reminded us that the team that scores more runs wins 100 percent of the time.  The team that gets the most walks plus hits often loses. As devil’s advocate, I added the team that gets the most runs is not always the team that allowed the fewer earned runs.

Hence, I must be adamant as an inescapable stipulation that because baseball’s definition of “earned run” is not without glitch, especially from a handicapping standpoint, an old hand also must pay heed to unearned runs. After all, there are no such things as an “unearned” hit or walk in the WHIP stat.

However seeing some of the top handicapping geniuses get in heated dispute of the pros and cons of each statistic only reinforced what I believed all along—the few wizards out there never, ever ignore one math unit at the expense of the other.

As a sports doctor the only baseball picks that I give my patients will be from the  knowledge that a steady diet of winners involves exercising both ERA and WHIP.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at GodsTips.com which is the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.