University of Pennsylvania, not to be confused with my alma mater California University of Pennsylvania, economist Justin Wolfers wrote a paper in which he used “forensic economics” to find alleged patterns of cheating in college basketball in online casino betting.

Wolfers asserts that point shaving is occurring in about five percent of games that involve large pointspreads. If only the good professor read any of our sports gaming articles such as “It is Good to Pick Bad” he wouldn’t have come up with such preposterous conclusions, knowing there is a very logical reason large underdogs cover more than 50 percent of the time.

To the surprise of no sharp sports handicapper, Mr. Wolfers found that big underdogs cover a disproportionate percentage of close spread outcomes. Wolfers’ statistical “big dog” is a team getting 12 or more points.  As the NY Times puts it “There is a strange dearth of games in which 12-point favorites win by, say, 13 or 16 points. And there are a lot of games that they win by 11 points or slightly less. There is just no good explanation for this.”

Poppycock. While I am sure the Ivy League lecturer is a competent economist, he needs to take Professor Joe Duffy’s “Sports Handicapping for Dummies” class, ah I guess whenever I offer one.

Without question the first factoid, on the first day of class will be that the point spread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game.  It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side.  Second factoid in my lecture will be that the public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this of great magnitude and indisputable fact is accounted for in the college basketball betting line.

Professor Wolfers research paper claims the spread is “a market-based forecast of home team’s winning margin”.  Don’t get caught up in semantics as the “winning margin” could also be a negative number. Damn numbers crunchers.   However his misconception of what the spread actually is proves fatal to his conclusions.  The “market based forecast” is predicting perception, not eventual reality.

Let me give you an analogy.  Let’s say Professor Wolfers wanted to do a study on which movie critics are the most and least accurate at predicting the Academy Award winners.  He studied 20 critics’ lists from the last 15 years.  But as an example, 14 of the critics were listing who they felt should win, while six were actually predicting who they think would win.  In many cases there is a huge differentiation.  But if the professors’ study were oblivious to this, it makes his entire paper greatly flawed if not totally irrelevant.

As we mention in the above “It is Good to Pick Bad” article, I have flat out had gamblers tell me, “If I am going to lose, I’d rather lose betting (the vastly superior team) than betting on (the grossly inferior team).” Never in my life have I heard a more self-fulfilling prophecy.

Quite cognizant of the betting patterns of the gambler, the oddsmakers adjust accordingly. If Duke is playing Eastern Michigan and the spread “should be” without public betting tendencies taken into consideration, 14 points, the spread will be posted at say 16.  If it “should” be 24, the line will open at 27 or even higher.

We exploit that indisputable fact on a regular basis with our “official outlaw line”.  Premium customers are told several times a week that many plays are based on the deviation and that “The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action.  It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor.”

Well Professor, if you only asked I could have told you with large pointspreads there is an unbalanced digression when it comes to “off lines”.  It is because of public betting inclinations that big dogs get too many points more often than any subset. Here is gambling economics—if big favorites covered 50 percent of the time, the books would lose money because square players love betting big favorites.  As a result one has to pay retail not wholesale often when betting big favorites by laying an extra point or two.

So “off lines” will involve what should be a 14 point spread instead being 16 much more often than four being six or two points.  The difference between 14 and 16 points means a lot of big dogs will cover close spread games.

Nothing, I mean nothing in the professor’s paper should surprise any sharp player except his defective supposition. Furthermore I strongly doubt that most fixed games will involve a team covering by only one or two points.  Too much is left to chance if that happened.

In my educated opinion, most fixed games would involve covering by large margins, a pattern the Quaker educator admits to not finding with his fallacious forensics.

I’m not claiming in any way that there is no chicanery involved in the outcome of games.  But I am saying the only thing Wolfers proved is he has no idea what a point spread is based on.

Ironically my highly unscientific study tells me that most gamblers and handicappers suspect just the opposite in college sports—if anything too often coaches run up the score for no reason.

I know nothing about fixing games, but I suspect those who could, would be wealthy alum who have a lot of influence with the coaching staff.  We already know about the improprieties of alumni and boosters in recruiting.  I can’t help but highly doubt no booster has asked for any favors in return for those thousand dollar handshakes.

A simple don’t ask, don’t tell conversation could go along the lines of “coach, I am going to make a donation to the athletic program on Monday.  I sure will be feeling much more generous though if you guys win this Saturday by 15 or more points.  Can you help me feel charitable coach?” Wink.

Do I have any substantiation of my suspicions?  No, nothing that rises above the water cooler burden of proof, but I’d argue it’s a notch above what the professor’s so easily refuted evidence presents us.

The biggest irony of his paper is that he may not realize he may have uncovered something even more significant: forensic handicapping.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are the most sought after in the world. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

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Lord of the Dance’s Greatest Hits

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

We’ve written many articles over the years about winning
in March Madness.  We’ve also included
nuggets in our Tid-bets about how to have a March of Dimes.  But let’s review some of the best winning
strategies here on the K-Tel of our Marching Hymns.

·       
Depth is more important in conference play than
any point of the year.  Teams are playing
three and four days in a row.  Previous
boxscores loom huge in conference tourney play

·       
Read press releases closely for the conference
tournaments (or our news and notes at JoeDuffy.net).  Often coaches and players of teams that are
“locks” for the Big Dance will subtly or not-so-subtly admit when resting
players is more important than winning the conference postseason title

·       
Don’t fall for the “handicap guard play”
trap.  Virtually every team that makes
the Dance and many that miss it have strong guard play.  Few teams compliment it with talent as the
three, four and five spot.  Those are the
teams that advance and cover

·       
Talent is infinitely more important than
experience. Few teams have a lot of both. 
I handicap talent first and foremost. Don’t fall in love with mediocre
teams just because they are senior laden

·       
Take emotion in the first half lines of the
first round.  A big underdog making a
rare NCAA appearance or especially first ever, more times than you’d expect are
able to keep it close against traditional powers in the first 20 minutes of the
ballgame

·       
Unlike the college bowls, finishing the season
strong does go a long way.  Momentum is
much more important in the hoop postseason than football

·       
Don’t handicap neutral games as if they are road
games for both teams.  One of the biggest
myths in sports handicapping is that road record is indicative of neutral court
play

·       
However propinquity of schools to the site is
very important. If one team had to make a much longer trip, we do favor the
team that is significantly closer to the game location

·       
At one time fading the chic mid-majors after the
first round was as good as gold.  However
the gap between the rich, middle class and poor conferences continues to
narrow. “Strength of schedule” rankings still play a part though.  Massey’s consensus power ratings and
Foxsheets are the most accurate

·       
With so many square players coming out of the
woodwork for Madness and different books catering to different clientele, line
shopping is more important (more lucrative opportunities) in March Madness then
ever.  This is especially true with
totals. 

·       
Be careful about playing in any high stakes
bracket tournament because it can and generally will bias you and inhibit your
ability to make proper adjustments as the NCAA tournament goes on

·       
The NIT small conference teams are great plays
in the first two rounds.  They almost
always have the David versus Goliath motivational advantage, not to mention the
NIT is a major tourney for the bottom rung conferences

·       
Big conference teams though become bigger plays
as the NIT goes on.  Clearly with a win
or two under their belt, there should be little doubt about how much they
“want” to win.  Plus for financial
reasons the bigger conference teams are often playing all at home while the
tiny conferences are forced to win consecutive big games on the road.  It’s all about the money to the organizers
and the bettors

·       
In NIT picking, it’s the mid major bubble
outsiders that generally feel they have something to prove.  Big 10, ACC, Big East outside-looking-in
teams make quick exits, unless they have their entire nucleus coming back the
following year and it’s a true “building block” tournament

·       
Satellite and internet radio is a bigger tool
than ever.  Both are great resources for
the inside skinny

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com.  His daily and advanced news and notes
directly from his private clipboard are linked from the home page of www.godspicks.com or get them at JoeDuffy.net  They will be “must read” for all gamblers
during and beyond March Madness

Your Handicapper Told You, You Better Shop Around

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

How many times have you lost a game by a point or
half-point?  How many times have you
pushed a game?  How often do you buy a
half-point?  What=s
the point?  The answer my friend is
blowing in the Awin@. 
It may sound punny, but this article will keep
you in the money.

Successful betting = good handicapping + diligent line
shopping. It does not matter whether you hit 57-percent of your plays or just
flip a coin, getting the most beneficial line possible will pay huge dividends
over the long run. I have heard gamblers actually say something like, AIf it=s
a good play, it should cover an extra point or so.@  Okay, I suppose that gambler has never had a
bet decided by a point.  But remember
what I love to say:  we need other
gamblers to subsidize the books for us.

I know of several wagerers who
destroyed local guys just by playing the offshore steam moves from Don Best=s premium service.  The local guy would drive around in his van
getting his lines every 20 minutes or so from one of those archaic call-in line
services, oblivious to real-time steam moves. 
The aforesaid bettors, who beat the local guys with steam moves,
literally did no handicapping in collecting mightily.  They just beat their local guy into oblivion
by using a sharper line than their stogie-smoking sports account
representative. 

I know of several major sportsbooks that do not want to be
listed on the real-time odds services simply so they do not have to deal with
sharp high rollers.

Sportsbooks are very timid to budge a pointspread
when the line in football is three, seven or ten up or within a half-point up
or down to such numbers.  A half-point
line move can have mammoth ramifications on which team the gamblers bet is on
and very possibly the ATS result.

With the books so concerned about a half-point line
movement, why would you not be so diligent in shopping for the most beneficial
line?

It is very possible that hypothetically two people could
bet matching plays using the same money management skills, but have different
line shopping skills and thus have two significantly dissimilar records and ROIs. Thus after you obtain Godspicks.com selections, you
can still augment your prize money deeply.

Just because you=ve become a young bettor now, there=s
some things that you don=t
understand now.  Before you ask some guy
for his lines now, keep your betting options as long as you can now.  Godspicks.com told you, you better shop
around.

Don’t Scream Fire in a Crowded Sportsbook

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Frankly as I type this I’m in the middle of a slump.  However history tells me by the time I finish
scribing this article and it makes publication, we will be in the midst of a
windfall.  The key for a quality
handicapper is to stay the course. My occupation is my addiction. As a result
the only time I give myself off is the all-star break in baseball. Off betting
that is. We use that time to write articles. Every now and then Christmas Eve
will have no action, so I go to Midnight Mass. The point is (you were
wondering) when we gamble more than 360 days a year, there are peaks and
valleys. 

With two-plus decades of experience, we know our peaks
greatly outnumber the valleys and thus cannot and will not panic during our
fleeting slumps even though each losing day seems like a month to us.  We don’t decrease the size or number of bets
nor do we increase during our more prevalent winning streaks. Heck I’ve seen
that screaming dude from Philly on CNBC, Jim Cramer talk about the highs and
lows he’s had on Wall Street.  But he’s
considered the mogul of stocks. 
Discipline no doubt is a major reason.

As the ole saying goes “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon”.
No self-sustaining gambler lives and dies off of a few nights. Pressing one’s
luck, panicking, chasing, are among the deadly sins of gambling. 

One of the symptoms of a degenerate gambler is someone who
lives and dies by the game.  Not only is
there no such thing as a bailout game, but self-control ensures there should
ever be a need for one.

In the pre-Internet days I announced on the scorephones,
which at the time were the pre-eminent source for gambling information and also
where sports services salivated to advertise. 
Regrettably the owner of the company did sell advertising to the highest
bidder and inevitably every Monday Night Football promo for the 800 number scamdicappers involved the buzzword “bailout”.  They knew there were so many degenerate
gamblers in a state of panic from losing money in the two days previous and
were desperate to cancel it out on one game.

Lucky for the books and casinos, restraint is something
few gamblers have. 

Many money experts will advise smart investors to bet the
same amount each month   into their 401(k ).  It’s the same
principle in gambling. Don’t panic during losing streaks or press during
winning streaks. Stay the course.

We gamblers tend to be the most superstitious people in
the world.  It’s fine if it affects your
rooting and watching habits but should never cross the line of impinging your
handicapping.

Yes even we professionals have been there where every late
run seems to go against us.  I’ve sat in
front of the television waiting for the missed free throw by my team followed
by the meaningless wide open three-pointer by the bad guys at the buzzer for
the half-point cover.  When Lady Luck has
screwed us over the previous 72 hours, we see it coming again better than Nostradamus ever did.

While I won’t deny even those of us who make a living
picking winners are not immune from the snake bitten feeling of doom, we still
tow the line knowing with proper handicapping and willpower we win a lot more
than we lose.

Feeling bedeviled from a short-term string of last second
losses has had me chomping at the bit wanting to hedge a “so far, so good”
winning play on the half-time line. 
Rejection of the power of that nasty whore Lady Luck actually is easier
said than done for the short-sighted and sometimes even so for those who know
better.

Greed when placing bets can turn a 55 percent ATS winning
percentage into a “losing” record, quickly in fact.  Hysteria during stagnant periods can turn 45
percent into the bankroll equivalent 10 percent less. Often the biggest
difference between the wealthy and destitute gambler is not mere winning
percentage but the ability to use self-control during the downturns.

A lot of things go into making money gambling, with the
ability to pick winners far and away No. 1. Being a good line shopper increases
that. But more times than not, the degenerate gambler is not someone who always
loses, but somebody who can’t properly manage losing.

We honestly believe the exclusive daily and advanced news
and notes at the home page of www.godspicks.com
fills a huge void.  It’s always free and
is a necessary component for the do-it-yourself handicapper. The best premium
plays are also at Godspicks.com.

JoeDuffy.net has researched the best sportsbooks for you and we choose the ones we use and think you should use for line shopping. BetUs has the best reload and sign up bonus UP TO 50 percent—and they pay on time.

Many handicappers have
authored various articles on March Madness. 
Frankly America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at
Godspicks.com we think tops the list. 
However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in the conference
tournaments.

Here is an inventory of
parameters to look for:

New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90
percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late
in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination
time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the regular
season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked off
the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the
differentiation.  Teams like Missouri and Florida come to mind as line-ups that will rise to the
occasion.

Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference
playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no
real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the
capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.

Read the previous day’s boxscores: Every
now and then the obvious is true.  When
teams are playing two, three or even four consecutive days, depth and how many
minutes their key players have played is inestimable enlightenment. Nagging
injuries are magnified.

Go against top seeds
that need rest more than wins: As
Godspicks clients remember one of our biggest plays all of last year was UCLA
over Arizona in the Pac-10 Tournament.  Considering Wildcats boss Lute Olson already
announced he would just as soon lose early in the Pac 10 playoffs so his
players could get rested for the Big Dance, wiseguys were laughing when
everyone else called it a huge upset. 
Sharp players listened. This is a major intangible that local newspapers
will shed light on—which coaches admit they won’t play their star players 38
minutes per game just to get the official automatic bid when a high seed is
already clinched regardless.

Recent shooting
percentages: The single most
foretelling statistic may surprise some people, but it’s the shooting
percentage by a team in their previous five games relative to the cumulative
defensive average of their opponents in that span. Foxsheets is the best
database for this. Squads in a shooting groove are the toughest opponents in
the postseason.  It’s chic to preach
teams playing great defense and riding such teams is important too, but a
red-hot shooting team can exploit the best defenses more than visa versa.

Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your business, sportsbooks
are posting lines earlier and earlier and in fact are handicapped in that they
can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when making the line.  Hence key overlooked information comes in the
morning papers, on Sportingnews and ESPN Radio and on
the teams’ own sites.  Sharp information
is much more prevalent in the conference celebrations than the regular season
or Big Dance.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com.  He is perhaps the most published and
respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular
guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou
Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and
Potatoes gambling show,  Gridiron
Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.  Get daily free news and notes, including
advanced notes at www.joeduffy.net