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Lord of the Dance’s Greatest Hits

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

We’ve written many articles over the years about winning
in March Madness.  We’ve also included
nuggets in our Tid-bets about how to have a March of Dimes.  But let’s review some of the best winning
strategies here on the K-Tel of our Marching Hymns.

·       
Depth is more important in conference play than
any point of the year.  Teams are playing
three and four days in a row.  Previous
boxscores loom huge in conference tourney play

·       
Read press releases closely for the conference
tournaments (or our news and notes at JoeDuffy.net).  Often coaches and players of teams that are
“locks” for the Big Dance will subtly or not-so-subtly admit when resting
players is more important than winning the conference postseason title

·       
Don’t fall for the “handicap guard play”
trap.  Virtually every team that makes
the Dance and many that miss it have strong guard play.  Few teams compliment it with talent as the
three, four and five spot.  Those are the
teams that advance and cover

·       
Talent is infinitely more important than
experience. Few teams have a lot of both. 
I handicap talent first and foremost. Don’t fall in love with mediocre
teams just because they are senior laden

·       
Take emotion in the first half lines of the
first round.  A big underdog making a
rare NCAA appearance or especially first ever, more times than you’d expect are
able to keep it close against traditional powers in the first 20 minutes of the
ballgame

·       
Unlike the college bowls, finishing the season
strong does go a long way.  Momentum is
much more important in the hoop postseason than football

·       
Don’t handicap neutral games as if they are road
games for both teams.  One of the biggest
myths in sports handicapping is that road record is indicative of neutral court
play

·       
However propinquity of schools to the site is
very important. If one team had to make a much longer trip, we do favor the
team that is significantly closer to the game location

·       
At one time fading the chic mid-majors after the
first round was as good as gold.  However
the gap between the rich, middle class and poor conferences continues to
narrow. “Strength of schedule” rankings still play a part though.  Massey’s consensus power ratings and
Foxsheets are the most accurate

·       
With so many square players coming out of the
woodwork for Madness and different books catering to different clientele, line
shopping is more important (more lucrative opportunities) in March Madness then
ever.  This is especially true with
totals. 

·       
Be careful about playing in any high stakes
bracket tournament because it can and generally will bias you and inhibit your
ability to make proper adjustments as the NCAA tournament goes on

·       
The NIT small conference teams are great plays
in the first two rounds.  They almost
always have the David versus Goliath motivational advantage, not to mention the
NIT is a major tourney for the bottom rung conferences

·       
Big conference teams though become bigger plays
as the NIT goes on.  Clearly with a win
or two under their belt, there should be little doubt about how much they
“want” to win.  Plus for financial
reasons the bigger conference teams are often playing all at home while the
tiny conferences are forced to win consecutive big games on the road.  It’s all about the money to the organizers
and the bettors

·       
In NIT picking, it’s the mid major bubble
outsiders that generally feel they have something to prove.  Big 10, ACC, Big East outside-looking-in
teams make quick exits, unless they have their entire nucleus coming back the
following year and it’s a true “building block” tournament

·       
Satellite and internet radio is a bigger tool
than ever.  Both are great resources for
the inside skinny

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com.  His daily and advanced news and notes
directly from his private clipboard are linked from the home page of www.godspicks.com or get them at JoeDuffy.net  They will be “must read” for all gamblers
during and beyond March Madness

Your Handicapper Told You, You Better Shop Around

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

How many times have you lost a game by a point or
half-point?  How many times have you
pushed a game?  How often do you buy a
half-point?  What=s
the point?  The answer my friend is
blowing in the Awin@. 
It may sound punny, but this article will keep
you in the money.

Successful betting = good handicapping + diligent line
shopping. It does not matter whether you hit 57-percent of your plays or just
flip a coin, getting the most beneficial line possible will pay huge dividends
over the long run. I have heard gamblers actually say something like, AIf it=s
a good play, it should cover an extra point or so.@  Okay, I suppose that gambler has never had a
bet decided by a point.  But remember
what I love to say:  we need other
gamblers to subsidize the books for us.

I know of several wagerers who
destroyed local guys just by playing the offshore steam moves from Don Best=s premium service.  The local guy would drive around in his van
getting his lines every 20 minutes or so from one of those archaic call-in line
services, oblivious to real-time steam moves. 
The aforesaid bettors, who beat the local guys with steam moves,
literally did no handicapping in collecting mightily.  They just beat their local guy into oblivion
by using a sharper line than their stogie-smoking sports account
representative. 

I know of several major sportsbooks that do not want to be
listed on the real-time odds services simply so they do not have to deal with
sharp high rollers.

Sportsbooks are very timid to budge a pointspread
when the line in football is three, seven or ten up or within a half-point up
or down to such numbers.  A half-point
line move can have mammoth ramifications on which team the gamblers bet is on
and very possibly the ATS result.

With the books so concerned about a half-point line
movement, why would you not be so diligent in shopping for the most beneficial
line?

It is very possible that hypothetically two people could
bet matching plays using the same money management skills, but have different
line shopping skills and thus have two significantly dissimilar records and ROIs. Thus after you obtain Godspicks.com selections, you
can still augment your prize money deeply.

Just because you=ve become a young bettor now, there=s
some things that you don=t
understand now.  Before you ask some guy
for his lines now, keep your betting options as long as you can now.  Godspicks.com told you, you better shop
around.

Don’t Scream Fire in a Crowded Sportsbook

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Frankly as I type this I’m in the middle of a slump.  However history tells me by the time I finish
scribing this article and it makes publication, we will be in the midst of a
windfall.  The key for a quality
handicapper is to stay the course. My occupation is my addiction. As a result
the only time I give myself off is the all-star break in baseball. Off betting
that is. We use that time to write articles. Every now and then Christmas Eve
will have no action, so I go to Midnight Mass. The point is (you were
wondering) when we gamble more than 360 days a year, there are peaks and
valleys. 

With two-plus decades of experience, we know our peaks
greatly outnumber the valleys and thus cannot and will not panic during our
fleeting slumps even though each losing day seems like a month to us.  We don’t decrease the size or number of bets
nor do we increase during our more prevalent winning streaks. Heck I’ve seen
that screaming dude from Philly on CNBC, Jim Cramer talk about the highs and
lows he’s had on Wall Street.  But he’s
considered the mogul of stocks. 
Discipline no doubt is a major reason.

As the ole saying goes “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon”.
No self-sustaining gambler lives and dies off of a few nights. Pressing one’s
luck, panicking, chasing, are among the deadly sins of gambling. 

One of the symptoms of a degenerate gambler is someone who
lives and dies by the game.  Not only is
there no such thing as a bailout game, but self-control ensures there should
ever be a need for one.

In the pre-Internet days I announced on the scorephones,
which at the time were the pre-eminent source for gambling information and also
where sports services salivated to advertise. 
Regrettably the owner of the company did sell advertising to the highest
bidder and inevitably every Monday Night Football promo for the 800 number scamdicappers involved the buzzword “bailout”.  They knew there were so many degenerate
gamblers in a state of panic from losing money in the two days previous and
were desperate to cancel it out on one game.

Lucky for the books and casinos, restraint is something
few gamblers have. 

Many money experts will advise smart investors to bet the
same amount each month   into their 401(k ).  It’s the same
principle in gambling. Don’t panic during losing streaks or press during
winning streaks. Stay the course.

We gamblers tend to be the most superstitious people in
the world.  It’s fine if it affects your
rooting and watching habits but should never cross the line of impinging your
handicapping.

Yes even we professionals have been there where every late
run seems to go against us.  I’ve sat in
front of the television waiting for the missed free throw by my team followed
by the meaningless wide open three-pointer by the bad guys at the buzzer for
the half-point cover.  When Lady Luck has
screwed us over the previous 72 hours, we see it coming again better than Nostradamus ever did.

While I won’t deny even those of us who make a living
picking winners are not immune from the snake bitten feeling of doom, we still
tow the line knowing with proper handicapping and willpower we win a lot more
than we lose.

Feeling bedeviled from a short-term string of last second
losses has had me chomping at the bit wanting to hedge a “so far, so good”
winning play on the half-time line. 
Rejection of the power of that nasty whore Lady Luck actually is easier
said than done for the short-sighted and sometimes even so for those who know
better.

Greed when placing bets can turn a 55 percent ATS winning
percentage into a “losing” record, quickly in fact.  Hysteria during stagnant periods can turn 45
percent into the bankroll equivalent 10 percent less. Often the biggest
difference between the wealthy and destitute gambler is not mere winning
percentage but the ability to use self-control during the downturns.

A lot of things go into making money gambling, with the
ability to pick winners far and away No. 1. Being a good line shopper increases
that. But more times than not, the degenerate gambler is not someone who always
loses, but somebody who can’t properly manage losing.

We honestly believe the exclusive daily and advanced news
and notes at the home page of www.godspicks.com
fills a huge void.  It’s always free and
is a necessary component for the do-it-yourself handicapper. The best premium
plays are also at Godspicks.com.

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Many handicappers have
authored various articles on March Madness. 
Frankly America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at
Godspicks.com we think tops the list. 
However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in the conference
tournaments.

Here is an inventory of
parameters to look for:

New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90
percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late
in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination
time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the regular
season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked off
the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the
differentiation.  Teams like Missouri and Florida come to mind as line-ups that will rise to the
occasion.

Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference
playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no
real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the
capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.

Read the previous day’s boxscores: Every
now and then the obvious is true.  When
teams are playing two, three or even four consecutive days, depth and how many
minutes their key players have played is inestimable enlightenment. Nagging
injuries are magnified.

Go against top seeds
that need rest more than wins: As
Godspicks clients remember one of our biggest plays all of last year was UCLA
over Arizona in the Pac-10 Tournament.  Considering Wildcats boss Lute Olson already
announced he would just as soon lose early in the Pac 10 playoffs so his
players could get rested for the Big Dance, wiseguys were laughing when
everyone else called it a huge upset. 
Sharp players listened. This is a major intangible that local newspapers
will shed light on—which coaches admit they won’t play their star players 38
minutes per game just to get the official automatic bid when a high seed is
already clinched regardless.

Recent shooting
percentages: The single most
foretelling statistic may surprise some people, but it’s the shooting
percentage by a team in their previous five games relative to the cumulative
defensive average of their opponents in that span. Foxsheets is the best
database for this. Squads in a shooting groove are the toughest opponents in
the postseason.  It’s chic to preach
teams playing great defense and riding such teams is important too, but a
red-hot shooting team can exploit the best defenses more than visa versa.

Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your business, sportsbooks
are posting lines earlier and earlier and in fact are handicapped in that they
can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when making the line.  Hence key overlooked information comes in the
morning papers, on Sportingnews and ESPN Radio and on
the teams’ own sites.  Sharp information
is much more prevalent in the conference celebrations than the regular season
or Big Dance.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com.  He is perhaps the most published and
respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular
guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou
Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and
Potatoes gambling show,  Gridiron
Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.  Get daily free news and notes, including
advanced notes at www.joeduffy.net

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Mike Godsey (www.godspicks.com)

It is the time of the year when the casual player emerges
from the woodwork but like the rest of the year, only the Wise Guys and the
bookmakers surface with extra change. As many of our articles have reminded
gamblers, so often going against the conventional logic is the way to win while
the sucker money subsidizes our spoils.

In many cases for example what won us money during the
regular season will do so in March, but many new angles are additionally there
for the money grubbing.

Pit the Selection
Committee Against Roxy and
Company

Excluding the ninth seed laying points to the eighth seed,
we still love going with lower seeded favorites to higher seeded teams. That being
said with the caveat of excluding the four-abovementioned games in which the seedings could have been flip-flopped anyway, there have
been tournaments where this does not apply.

But we will more than happily put our money on the
linesmakers exploiting false higher seeds.

Emotion in Short
Run, Talent in the Long Run

When betting half-time lines we have a rare case of what
appears too apparent to actually be true. But the public’s infatuation with
betting the big chalk has prevented this from being a cash cow for the average
Joe. Going with the number 16 seed in the first half has definitely gotten my
associates and I some nice spare change over the
years.

Before making a final decision, I scout the game on the
dish, but very often I will then bet the top seed in the second half. For the
most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their
lives bar none. The seniors on the team are in many cases playing in their
final game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase
for the scouts of the foreign leagues.

Finally there is not one guy on the lower seeded teams
that have not dreamt of starring in college hoops version of Lake
Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.

All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually do go a
long way to compensating for the talent deficiency. But over 40 minutes having
infinitely more talent and depth mean, as Dick Vitale would say “Blowout
City baby” in the second half.

Plus if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting
for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half
represents an epiphany for the team that spent the first 20 minutes more
concerned with playing two days later. Then the to-be-anticipated bubble-burst happens.

Once the faster, stronger deeper top seed goes on that
inevitable 10-0 burst all the delusions of grandeur come crashing down on Squid
State. The emotional roller coaster
makes its descent. We cash in with the sixteen side in
the first half and the huge chalk in the second.

Beware of the “Guards
Dominate” Trap

I hear it all the time that “It’s a guard dominated game”.
Then a conclusion to the effect, “Handicap the guards first” generally follows.
This conviction is not so much a myth as it is a matter of inductive rather
than deductive reasoning.

The simple fact is that there are a lot more guards out
there than there are centers so just based on pure numbers there will be more
guard-oriented teams that advance. Of course there will be more guard-oriented
teams whose bubble bursts too come selection time. In fact look at the bottom
of each conference and you will find a lot of guard-oriented teams.

If truth be told, the teams that have the big men are the teams that will have
biggest mismatches-literally and figuratively. However again, the
guard-oriented lovers are not falling into a classic go-against trap
completely. In point of fact, smart players handicap teams in their totality.

Sure teams that have great three-point shooters are the
best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely if they go cold
can also be great to go against in “pleasers”. They are high risk/high return,
but there are high return/low risk options too.

Don’t Fall in Love With Seniors

It is a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win,
the best players with few exceptions do not stay until their senior year, thus the best teams are not senior laden.

This indisputable truth is becoming more so every year. I
will take the team with talent over the team with experience.

In fact I would be leery of senior-laden favorites over a
young team with a bigger upside and nothing to lose.

Conversely by no means do I suggest always betting against
the more seasoned team. If you are talking about a team that is about a
ten-point dog (that is a team that is not completely overmatched but getting a
decent number of points) there is sufficient reason to bet them to cover,
though not blindly.

The hypotheses of playing in one’s last game in organized ball and showcasing
for the

European scouts can inspire a competitive team to claw to
the end, but I would much rather invest in a team like Arizona,
short on postseason familiarity but high on ability.

Fade the Chic Teams

One of the first questions that the so-called “experts”
take on after the pairings are announced is “Who will the dark horse teams be”.
So often Billy Packer on one network,

Dick Vitale on another, the USA Today on Monday and so
many media hacks and talking heads pick the same team. One year they all love Eastern
Michigan, the next Princeton.

Dark horse teams have the element of surprise and the “no
respect” motivational factor. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi make up its
mind what the flavor of the month is for March, they are no longer dark horses
now are they?

Not only is there no element of surprise, but also what
better way to insure his higher-seeded team does not overlook their opponent
then to point out that the media has labeled their foe as one of the potential
Cinderella teams?

In fact, sight and opponent unseen I would not be surprised if Gonzaga the
three-time bearer of the glass slipper now becomes an early causality because
for the first time they face the burden of high expectation.

Do Not Talk Yourself Into Betting Every Game

I do realize there are casual gamblers who do bet, as I
like to call it “lunch money” on games. As long as they are risking mere
entertainment money to insure that a game is interesting to them, it is
harmless. And there is always a book happy to help out.

However when it comes to betting from ones bankroll, do
not feel that you have to bet whatever game is being televised in your area.
Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch the good investments. Do not check
the morning sports page to see what is on your local channel and convince
yourself it is one of the strongest games on the board. Plus if you choose the
sports bar option, you may get Final Four caliber waitress. Just do not let the
wife know.

But the only true secret to winning in March is of course
visiting Godspicks.com.

It will be yet another Million Dollar March at www.godspicks.com where we burn the midnight oil all month long.  FREE news and notes,
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God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 17

Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Boob Tube Not Always For Boobs

No pornographic intentions, but perhaps I did get your attention. I am a proud parent of three awesome young kids. A lot of what they watch actually can be educational, but there is also a bunch of garbage on TV. For the handicapper there is a certain double edge sword about games they watch, including of course in person. The sports packages now offered also on digital cable (except for the NFL) are an outstanding handicapping tool…or vice. The former should be relatively obvious—the more one scouts, the more knowledgeable one becomes.

However a precursor to a gambling deathblow is when I hear a gasbag tout a play because “I saw Sheboygan on TV the other night and they looked horrible.” Gamblers make too many conclusions based on one game they’ve seen. For whatever reason, my unscientific study indicates such hotdoggers more times than not go against a team that looked horrible rather than with a team that looked great. The sharp player realizes if said clunker was aberrational, it is more likely to be a wake-up call.

But the would-be hotshot apparently knows only what he saw and the shortsightedness won’t let him see anything else.
Using a grand total of one or two games to predict the future is outlandish, yet a common offense among coach potatoes. Want to win more? Some need to watch a lot more TV and others need to watch a lot less. Or maybe that’s where porn does come in. If you overreact to what you see on TV, watching nudity will get you in less trouble.

The Epicenter of Hypocrisy

We call our handicapping website, Godspicks.com the Center of the Handicapping Universe. It looks like my old stomping ground of south Jersey is ready to become the center of gambling self-righteousness as we find out that Phoenix Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet led a, oh no–hide the women a children, a gambling ring.

Yes it’s true that domestic sports gambling is illegal outside of Vegas. I don’t believe we can pick and choose which laws we obey based on whether we agree with them. But unless further details indicate these players and coaches involved bet on NHL games it’s a big non-story.

Just 10 miles down the road from where all hell broke loose is Camden, NJ- a city that two major publications dubbed “America’s Worst City” because of crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty and you name it.

Yet the boys in blue of the Garden State spend the tax dollars of my family and friends to bust a bunch of high profile people who committed the heinous crime of taking Villanova and St. Joseph’s under the total.

Like I’ve always said, they could actually tax what should be a legal activity and take the tariff revenue to fight things like crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty or build schools.

It seems to me law enforcement in Mount Holly would be better off keeping drugs out of kids hands or even stuffing their pieholes with cheesesteaks. Nah, let’s get those people who want to risk their own legally earned money on an over/under off the streets. It will make me feel secure the next time I go to Ponzio’s Diner and get some black and white cookies.

It’s much ado about nothing. What say you?

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There is no Place Like Home, Except Often the Road
Joe Duffy “www.godspicks.com)
If there is one consistent general theory or category/sub-category that applies to successful handicapping in every sport, it would be exploiting home/road anomalies. That is discovering select teams that play significantly better at home than on the road or in some cases visa versa. In baseball this is also true with pitchers. We feel the term “home/road anomalies” is more accurate than the commonly accepted HFA (home field advantage) that many handicappers use.
This holds to form much more so than any other variances such as rested/unrested in the NBA, lefty/righty stats in baseball, grass/turf in football and baseball, day/night etc. In the NBA in particular nothing jumps out at us more than a team that is a home dog despite a fairly significantly better home SU record than the road team’s away mark. We have explained in previous articles why so many systems and theories that hold up don’t Amake sense@ to the inexpert eye but make dollars to the trained eye.
Obviously in such situations the road team is the better overall team and hence the public still prefers betting the superior team even if closer scrutiny at the home/road anomalies nullifies the supremacy. Then again the notion of the general public actually being aware of the home/road anomalies is laughable anyway.
This is of course assuming there are no major roster changes via injury, trade etc that have changed one or both team’s dynamics.
If injuries or roster changes explain why there is a road favorite, said theory does not apply. Likewise one must still put the circumstances under inspection. In the NBA and NHL “remember them?) for example the schedule maker generally favors the home team. If there is a three game in four nights or five in seven nights versus a much more rested team, it is by and large a scenario that sees the home team benefiting. But sharpies must be aware of both the rule and the exception.
Be cognizant there are actually teams that play better on the road or more accurately from a handicapping standpoint their home/road variance is less than the norm. Thus especially when getting points they become of great value on the highway, but are also great go-against plays at home. The teams with disproportionately better play on the road will sneak under the oddsmaking radar much more than Jekyll & Hyde better-at-home teams.
Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Chicago are examples of sports cities that far and away have the most passionate fans. Passion is a double edged sword. There are no better fans and hence home field/court advantage when the home team is playing well, but conversely when a massive slump hits so often being host is a home field disadvantage.
Pittsburgh is one of the great football towns in the nation and even in the post Steele Curtain days the Steelers were pretty invincible at home. It’s unlikely anyone knowledgeable would dispute the fervor of the faithful intensified their HFA. But the easily rattled mega talented Kordell Stewart was a much better quarterback on the road throughout his career than at he was the confluence of the Allegheny, Ohio and Monongahela. The boo-birds became the 12th man for the wrong team. This is a prime example as circumstances changed there was also a colossal modulation in home/road variance.
Conversely the same can be true but for completely different reasons in Miami and Atlanta for example. Arguably the two worst pro sports towns in the USA the empty arena at Phillips Arena in Atlanta for the Hawks is no benefit but when things are going well the bandwagon fills up quickly. Ask the Heat. One pony towns like Portland and Sacramento had magnified eminence on their home courts because of fan enthusiasm and conversely were disproportionately overvalued on the road.
I have seen some worthy power ratings in my day. Most take into account individual HFA that is acknowledging that the extent of home field advantage is not across the board. However with only a few exceptions even the more accurate rankings are oblivious to the equally important piece of information that road disadvantage is also not global. Recognizing one and not the other can actually be counterproductive and be another example of the would-be handicapping kingpin outsmarting oneself.
Any time there are off-court or off-field distractions so often the road is a sanctuary. We see this often with college teams under investigation for the proverbial Apossible sanctions@. From a handicapping standpoint these teams become undervalued on the road but overvalued at home. This is why the Trail Blazers went from a great home court to the Jail Blazers struggling in Oregon.
Exploiting these deviations is a three-step process. First one must find the statistical irregularity. Then one must analyze why the anomalism exists. Finally one must accurately conclude whether the state of affairs that led up to the deviation has been altered. If so, one must disregard the anomaly. If there is no significant fluctuation in the then and now comparison, the sharp player has a winning angle to build towards the preponderance.
To paraphrase a famous movie line, when searching for your wallet’s desire look no further than a team’s own backyard.
Just don’t forget how the other team performs away from their house.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.