From ScoresOddsPicks.com is a preview of Pittsburgh and Utah. The big play on this game is from Big Red. It’s the strongest game on college football schedule tonight for sure.

The No. 15 Pittsburgh Panthers are hoping for a big season—possibly even a BCS Bowl appearance if all goes according to plan. The schedule certainly doesn’t have any breaks early on, though, as the Panthers are underdogs on college football odds to open the season; Utah is favored by 2.5 points in this match up.

No. 15 Pittsburgh at Utah (-2.5) – Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (Versus)

Despite winning 10 games last year, it was a large disappointment for Pittsburgh; the team settled for a victory over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Everything fell apart in the season finale, when Pitt blew a 21-point lead to Cincinnati. Now, though, the Panthers are optimistic they have what it takes to get it done.

Dion Lewis is the centerpiece of the offense. He exploded for 1799 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman, and he’ll be the bell cow once again. The big-play threat might have to do a lot of the work by himself, though, as the line is inexperienced. The quarterback situation also isn’t particularly sound, with both Tino Sunseri and Pat Bostick vying for time. Lewis and receiver Jonathan Baldwin are being counted on to have massive seasons.

Pittsburgh’s defense features two dynamite ends in Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Their play will be crucial against Utah’s spread offense. The line is breaking in two new defensive tackles but there’s enough depth here to get the job done.

Quarterback Jordan Wynn didn’t start a ton of games for Utah last season but, when he did, he was fantastic, averaging about 250 yards per game. Now a sophomore, he’s poised to lead Utah’s spread offense to the next level. The Utes have a fine power running game to compliment the pass, led by Eddie Wide (1069 yards last year). Matt Asiata, who was penciled in as the starter ahead of Wide last season, is also back in the mix.

Utah has two solid defensive tackles in Sealver Siliga and Dave Kruger, which should help at least slow Dion Lewis. The ends are solid too, making for a formidable front. The defensive backs are the real weak spot, though Pitt probably won’t throw the ball a ton on Thursday.

Both teams are gearing up for what they hope are breakthrough seasons. Lewis is a superstar in the making and, while Utah has a great line to slow him down, the running back will still draw plenty of attention. That will allow Baldwin to run free, much like he did last year en route to 1111 yards and eight scores.

Top expert pick on this game: The biggest outlaw book in the southeast is “Catfish Parker”. He also is in constant contact with his colleagues from around the nation. Nobody has a better pulse on where “outlaw money” is going. At 4:03 ET he says there is big, big time local strong “local” money (not tracked by offshore or Vegas books) on the Pittsburgh-Utah national TV side.

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Yesterday, we discussed common NFL betting player props like predicting the NFL’s yardage leaders in passing, receiving and rushing. Today’s let’s look at a different kind of prop: head-to-head player props.

These props pit two players (usually at the same position) against each other; bettors can predict who will outperform the other in a specific stat category. Here’s a look at some NFL quarterback touchdown pass head-to-heads for 2010 – with a sports betting blog pick included for each.

Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees (-3)

As much as Drew Brees racks up offensive numbers, Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s just as good. Brees threw for 34 scores last season; he’s hit that mark two years in a row, setting a career high. But whereas it took Brees until his seventh NFL season as a starter to throw 30 TD passes, Rodgers did it in his second. Rodgers appears to have a higher ceiling. I think he’ll top Brees this year.

Free pick: Rodgers +3

Peyton Manning (-5) vs Tony Romo

Love Romo on this one. Manning and Romo already posted fairly comparable passing stats last year. This season, Romo is playing in the best offense he’s ever had around him. Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, Marion Barber, Roy Williams – he has tons of viable weapons. I think Romo will explode into MVP consideration this year, so staying within five touchdown passes of Manning seems very doable.

Free pick: Romo +5

Jay Cutler vs Tom Brady (-2.5)

Sports betting players should be careful not to overthink this one. Yes, Cutler should have a breakout season under new offensive co-ordinator “Mad” Mike Maritz. But I see that translating into mega passing yards, not mega touchdowns. Cutler will still turn over the ball too much to pass the far more efficient Brady in touchdown passes.

Free pick: Brady -2.5

Brett Favre vs Matt Schaub (-2)

I’m somewhat bearish on Favre this year. He’s another year older and two of his favorite targets, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, are major health concerns. Rice is already out at least half the season with hip surgery and Harvin hasn’t solved his migraine woes yet. Favre could regress statistically whereas Matt Schaub, who led the NFL in passing yards last year, is only getting better.

Free pick: Schaub -2

For the last several years we’ve touted Pete Tiernan’s Bracket
Science as a valuable tool in Big Dance handicapping. While the science is
oriented towards forecasting the March Madness bracket pool, there are sundry sports handicapping applications.

In fact, as our diverse range of regular clients have seen
us assert in our analysis—the dichotomous ATS and straight up game as an
example—handicapping is in large part the art of isolating overvalued and
undervalued teams.

The voluminous articles on Bracket Science are centered on
isolating characteristics of underachieving and overachieving teams in the NCAA
Tournament.

If there is a downside to this mechanism, the findings are
more corroborating my own experiences as a handicapper than enlightening me on
new angles. Rest assured that a large component of my success in the industry
since the 1980s is that I am quite swayable and have made many adjustments,
often debunking unfound theories of my fledgling early years.

Conversely, those who subscribe to sports betting’s
ultimate oxymoron “conventional logic” will have an epiphany upon reading the
findings with an open mind.

Possibly topping the lists of urban legends perpetuated by
hacks, talking heads, and bottom-rung handicappers alike is the pure poppycock
about betting on guard oriented teams.

As stated numerous times, a team’s strength is a commodity
and the less prevalent the commodity, the more value the resource is.

In a rare illustration in which “conventional logic” is
factually based, most baseball fans understand that possessing a shortstop who can hit 35 runs and knock in 100 is more valuable than a
first baseball who can do the same. A power hitting middle infielder is a
scarcity—a rare commodity.

But the same gospel truth is abandoned elsewhere in
sports. For example in the NBA playoffs, it’s a statistical truism that scoring
decreases in the NBA playoffs as defensively intensity increases.

Yet “conventional logic” has Joeybagofdonuts victimized
into believing that somehow when scoring goes down defensive becomes more
paramount. False, a quick study proves that teams most adept at scoring
consistently in the half-court are beyond reproach the most victorious in
postseason NBA.

The same parallel universe applies to college basketball.
There are significantly more quality backcourts than frontcourts. Most teams
that fail to make the NCAA, flop in the first-round, or do not even quality for
the NIT are guard oriented.

Drinking the Kool-Aid, those who perpetuate the alternate
reality conclude that the preponderance of high caliber guard play and the
dearth of dominant big men makes the more prevalent guard oriented teams the
more cherished commodity. Basketball’s equivalent of the power hitting first
baseman has become more indispensable than the shortstop who can bat cleanup.

Poppycock, balderdash; it’s a pure betting urban legend.

The goal here is neither to bootleg Tiernan’s
research nor write an advertorial on his behalf, but one would be advised to
consult his work for his precise and standardized metrics for defining over and
underachieving.

His research concluded that since 1991, NCAA Tournament
teams get 52 percent of their points from guards. He also defines the last 24
years as the modern era and divides them into three eight-year periods. Of zero
surprise to us, but a revelation to countless, Tiernan
concludes, “In each eight-year period of the modern
era, the most frontcourt-dominant teams have overachieved,” and continuing,
“The most guard-dominant squads have never been overperformers
in any eight-year period of the 64-team era.” “Never” he said, no way, no how.

Using statistically overwhelming numbers to document his
conclusions he again corroborates what we’ve preached for decades, “if you look
at the average percentage of points that tourney advancers have gotten from
guards in each eight-year period of the modern era, you’ll find that deeper
advancers tend to be more frontcourt-oriented squads.”

Judge for yourself as the $20 he
charges for his research is pocket change for the bettor and we be paid back
ten-fold if utilized correctly.

Debunking the guard-play myth is just one of my
long-preached theories that have earned me the title of “Mr. March” and “Lord
of the Dance” that are validated by his 24-year study.

Because I am seamlessly converting his brainpower into
spread betting applications, the devil’s advocate could argue yours truly is
making some leaps of faith. I’d welcome counterpoints, but among the other theorems
authenticated not only by my quarter century of unprecedented winnings, but
also by Tiernan’s scholarly research are:

·       
Straight up winning percentage is greatly
overplayed in handicapping. Scoring margin is the leading indictor

·       
Bench play is extremely overvalued in Big Dance
handicapping. Note that the study is purely about the NCAA Tournament. We
assert that a deep bench is of great importance in the conference tournaments
but overrated in the Big Dance

·       
Age and experience is
also overrated. “With each two-round advancement
in the tourney, teams get increasingly younger,” the study says.

The sportsbooks
thrive because “conventional logic” is too often a misnomer for “folklore” in
sports betting. Those who let facts guide their conclusions will continue to
prosper.

The author Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team of GodsTips,
anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.
The above research is only a scintilla of the data “Mr. March” exploits en
route to being the winningest all-time sports handicapper.