I caught a soundbite promo on BetQL that made me chuckle: “I noticed that teams who play Ohio State this year end up not covering the next week.” Surprise, surprise, the same catchy phrase was spouted about the Philadelphia Eagles as. But, hold up, where are the receipts? No data or evidence to back up this fake news. Sorry, buddy, but that “brilliant observation” is just pure fiction.
Um, ATS records in ’23 after playing:
OH State 3-3
Eagles 3-3-1
But, it got me thinking, which teams have been slaying and which ones have been slacking at least insofar as how foes do after clashing with them? Let’s kick things off with the NFL, and of course, let’s keep our focus on ATS records.
Worst records after playing:
Dallas 0-6
Tampa 1-4-1
New Orleans 2-5
Detroit 2-5
Las Vegas 2-5
Best records after playing:
Jacksonville 6-2
Minnesota 5-2
Atlanta 5-2-1
Onward to the college gridiron.
Worst after playing:
UNLV 1-5
Old Dominion 1-5
James Madison 1-5
Clemson 1-5
Best after playing:
Bowling Green 6-0-1
Mississippi 6-0
Utah State 6-1
Charlotte, Iowa State, Northwestern, Tulsa, and Washington State all: 5-1.
The takeaway? Starting with evidence-based data is always a smart move. And that’s precisely what you’ll find at OffshoreInsiders.com.
Get ready for a spicy serving of college football tips from our sizzling-hot betting guru, Joe Duffy, as he dishes out a free pick for the prime-time game on Fox: Utah at UCLA. With the USC line set at -7 and a total of 56 at MYBookie, get ready to score big with Joe’s expert insights.
UTAH +7 Southern Cal
One of the bubble burst angles pertains to fading teams after a devastating loss. We have several versions of this strategy, each with slightly different metrics, yet all exhibiting remarkable outcomes. This particular angle has a record of 94 wins, 27 losses, and 4 ties. However, it’s important to note that it’s currently experiencing its first-ever slump, and therefore, may not be a premium bet at this time.
💰💰💰Top expert pick: We’re dominating the season, with a 63.73 percent win rate of 62-35 in the NFL. Our team is excited to announce this week’s first wave of college football winners!
Don’t miss out on our Tuesday and Thursday picks, and be sure to check out our four Wise Guys and 13 Majors for Saturday. Get ready to make some brilliant bets with us this week too. In the epic saga of sports betting, no one slays the game quite like Joe Duffy does with the NFL! Get ready for a thrill ride with a Sunday Night Football Game of the Year and a double dose of Sunday Wise Guy bets, all while wearing your lucky jersey. Plus, there are 10 NFL Majors waiting to be conquered! MNF too. All at Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
Ace gamblers are crushing it this season, all thanks to Joe Duffy’s Picks, boasting a whopping 127-94 score in football and 62-35 in NFL at OffshoreInsiders.com. A big chunk of their success hinges on top-notch intel, including the legendary ATS standings, aka the sweat barometer.
Best teams to bet on this season, ranked by margin of cover.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Oklahoma
6-0
13
UNLV
6-0
12.3
Arizona
6-1
10.9
Oregon
5-0-1
10
Duke
4-2
9.9
Penn State
6-0
9.4
Worst teams ATS this season or the best teams to bet against ranked by margin of cover.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Baylor
1-4-1
-14.6
Temple
1-6
-11.7
Southern Miss
1-5
-9.8
Minnesota
1-5
-8.8
Note this, sports fans: No team is walking away empty-handed ATS this season. But, let’s face it, Vanderbilt at 1-7 and Illinois at 1-6 are definitely not living their best lives.
Best over teams in college football this season ranked by OU margin.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Utah State
6-1
16.9
LSU
7-0
15.8
UMass
7-1
14.6
New Mexico
5-1
12.8
Other teams that have gone over every game including Boston College at 5-0-1, Vanderbilt 8-0, but each by single digit margins.
Biggest under teams.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Ohio
1-5
-12.9
Ohio State
1-5
-12.1
Utah
1-5
-11.4
UCLA
2-4
-11.1
SMU
1-5
-10.3
No team has gone under every game.
Veteran cappers have a secret weapon up their sleeve: the margin of cover. It’s a sneaky little tool used to measure the trustworthiness of those ATS and OU records that can be oh-so-tricky. Think of it as margin of victory, but with a twist- it’s measured against the point spread or OU. And speaking of OU, they list the “overs” first (just in case you’re scratching your head over that one). Some novices call this the sweat barometer. Just don’t call me late for dinner.
💰💰💰Top expert pick: We’re dominating the season, with a 63.73 percent win rate of 62-35 in the NFL. Our team is excited to announce this week’s first wave of college football winners!
Don’t miss out on our Tuesday and Thursday picks, and be sure to check out our four Wise Guys and 13 Majors for Saturday. Get ready to make some brilliant bets with us this week too. In the epic saga of sports betting, no one slays the game quite like Joe Duffy does with the NFL! Get ready for a thrill ride with a Sunday Night Football Game of the Year and a double dose of Sunday Wise Guy bets, all while wearing your lucky jersey. Plus, there are 10 NFL Majors waiting to be conquered! MNF too. All at Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
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The integration of human and artificial intelligence has given Joe Duffy’s Picks an unparalleled edge, further enhanced by the use of cutting-edge technology. This competitive advantage has enabled me to remain a full-time capper since 1988 and continuously thrive, even against multi-million-dollar corporations. Yesterday’s record was 9-3, and we’re currently 60-35 in the NFL, including a rewarding preseason. With services available at OffshoreInsiders.com, you’ll receive advanced analytics on a daily basis.
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NFL
Wise Guy
CLEVELAND +7 San Francisco 100
UPGRADED TO WISE GUY.
Fade big road favorites off three straight home games is 39-15. We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. It is out top power ratings bet as our power line has San Francisco -4.4 for a 6.9 percent edge.
Home dogs versus teams off a home win is 131-66. Underdogs versus a team with a great and hot offense is 170-111. The more disappointing offense based on delta points scored is 129-90. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
CAROLINA +14 Miami 100
When our metrics indicate a home team is likely to be overconfident and/or grossly overvalued by the public, going with the road team is 39-7. This includes a perfect 4-0 getting 13 or more points. Non-divisional away underdogs on the road under specific situations that apply in this game relative to time of possession are 21-4. Non-divisional road dogs based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 63-32-2. Going with terrible winless teams off consecutive blowout losses is 35-14-2.
We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.
NEW ENGLAND +3 Las Vegas 405
Teams that hit the road off horrid back-to-back offensive efforts are 26-7. Home teams off big blowout loss are 47-18-4.
NY GIANTS +14 Buffalo SNF
The Bills have the second-best margin of cover in the NFL at 3-2 ATS covering by an average of +11.2 points per game. The Giants are the second worst at 0-5 by -13.5 points per game. So the Bills must be the best, right? Nope, here comes regression towards the mean. A team in consecutive road games and off a loss is 367-261-14.
Road dog not on a massive losing streak versus opponent off a loss is 131-72-6. Going with a bad ATS team is 293-202-7. The more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 352-259-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
Major
BALTIMORE -5 Tennessee 930 AM
***Added Saturday night
This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.
WASHINGTON +2.5 Atlanta 100
Non-divisional road teams off spread blowout loss is 92-44-6.
Minnesota-Chicago UNDER 44 100
Total based on recent offensive performance relative to the posted total goes under 224-127-8. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
San Francisco-Cleveland UNDER 37 100
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
Miami-Carolina UNDER 48.5 100
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
NY Jets-Philadelphia UNDER 41 425
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
NY Giants-Buffalo UNDER 45 820
Total based on recent offensive performance relative to the posted total goes under 224-127-8.
Prop bets are counted separate from our overall record and are .20 of a Wise Guy.
Prop bets
Jonathan Mingo (Carolina) OVER 32.5 receiving yards
Jerome Ford (Cleveland) UNDER 11.5 rush attempts
Cade Otton (Tampa) UNDER 13.5 Longest reception
Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville) OVER 100 receiving yards +380 alternate lines
Raheem Mostert (Miami) TO SCORE 3 OR MORE TDs +1100
Joe Duffy’s Picks: The AI-Powered Solution for Sports Bettors
For sports bettors who want a trustworthy source of information, Joe Duffy’s Picks is the place to go. With an outstanding track record of 106-81 this football season, it’s a go-to destination for sports enthusiasts. Regardless if you are an NFL or college football fan, Joe Duffy’s Picks offers high-quality betting insights fueled by AI. Check out OffshoreInsiders.com on Sunday, where you can get four NFL Wise Guys and six NFL Majors.
Total based on recent offensive performance relative to the posted total goes under 224-127-8. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
This is your wallet on Artificial Intelligence. Joe Duffy continues to dominate. Powered by AI, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 106-81 this football season for better than 56% winners. Get a college football sidefor Thursday. I swept going 3-0 in MLB on top of UTEP. Get the picks now
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
CFB
Major
UTEP +3 Florida International
We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. The official outlaw line is Our outlaw line is UTEP -6.5. My top power ratings have them a slight favorite, giving us about a five percent edge. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 57 percent.
MLB
Major
PHILADELPHIA -120 Atlanta 507
No listed pitchers
Hotter playoff team is +83.29 for 22.2 ROI. When the team is off a same series loss, the ROI is slightly higher.
HOUSTON (URQUIDDY +110) Minnesota (Ryan) 707
Teams off win as an underdog in same series under specific situations that apply in this game are 84-70 +29.62 units and 18.3 ROI.
ARIZONA (PFAADT +130) LA Dodgers (Lynn) 907
Another hotter team in playoffs angle is +76.96 units +21.3 ROI.
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arizona, Minnesota
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Indianapolis -1 to +2.5, Green Bay -1 to +2, Cincinnati -5 to -3
Biggest bets for today is from Grandmaster Joe Duffy. Sunday, I have NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 6 Majors.Added SNF side! Off consecutive winnings weeks with prop bets. 4 NFL prop bets. OffshoreInsiders.com
🏈 % of bets: Oregon State, Akron, Michigan, Texas Tech; EMU UNDER
🏈% of money: Texas Tech, UNT, Michigan, Notre Dame; Buffalo UNDER, Wash State OVER
🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: UNT, UConn
🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Kansas -3.5 to +2, Miami Oh -12 to -8.5.
BEST SPORTS HANDICAPPER PICKS FOR TODAY
LateInfo will continue massive winning streak: 3:30 ET. Off a sweep last week in college and NFL, as you know LateInfo often has low profile games you have to find on ESPN+. LI is about winning. Our top source Big Red says Alabama vs. Texas A&M strongest bet thus far all at OffshoreInsiders.com
Joe Duffy is yet again cruising this football season. 86-63 this season in football.First wave of winners up for this weekend. Thursday Night NFL Game of the Year, plus total and 2 college footbal sides and a total.Yes 5 football winners Thursday alone! Friday, 2 college football sides.
Crush the line moves as I have 5 college football Wise Guys and a stunning 14 Majorsfor Saturday. Sunday, I have 3Wise Guys NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 4 Majors at OffshoreInsiders.com
Fade poor first half teams if they are off a high scoring game is 626-443-19. Fade home underdogs with bad defense is 200-130-5. When both apply, it is 151-89-3, including 4-0 this season.
Who are the best teams to bet on and against this season? OffshoreInsiders.com has the answer. Top NFL teams this season based on margin of cover:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Miami
3-0
18.2
Buffalo
2-1
13.7
Cleveland
2-1
11.8
San Francisco
2-1
9.7
Arizona
3-0
9.3
Dallas
2-1
8.7
Green Bay
3-0
9.3
NFL betting
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Denver
0-3
-18
NY Giants
0-3
-15.5
Chicago
0-3
-15
Cincinnati
0-2-1
-9
Jacksonville
1-2
-8.7
NFL sweat barometer
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