A big weekend is ahead and bowl betting myths exposed, secrets revealed. Here is the super sharp report. 

Tonight’s NBA basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Toronto; Toronto OVER 

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Detroit; Indiana UNDER, New York OVER 

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Cleveland -5.5 to -3, Philadelphia -3 to -5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Detroit, Orlando; Indiana UNDER 

Tonight’s college basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Fairleigh Dickinson, Washington

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Fordham, Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Washington 

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: none

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Northern Iowa

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Bowl betting myths exposed, secrets revealed. This is must-watch before betting games.

Las Vegas (-6.5, 42)-Rams 

🏈Opened: -4, 43

🏈Side: 69% bets, 59% of money on Raiders

🏈OU: 56% of bets, 57% of money on OVER 

No betting splits, contrarian bets, line moves, public wagering on the betting market of the NBA. Now to college basketball: 

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Michigan, Colorado State, Iowa State

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Colorado State

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Iowa -6.5 to -3.5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets.

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Most contrarian bettors love to fade the bets in the first category “percentage of bets.” The belief is that the public is almost always wrong (which is why bookmakers make a lot of money) by chasing square theories. Hence betting against them is a winning proposition. Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper in the world. He prefers percent of tickets, which weighs $5 bettors the same as $500 and $5,000 a game wagerers saying, “If anything, the small bettor is the ultimate fade.”

While not completely disagreeing, Cy McCormick of the Masterlockline asserts that he prefers betting against the money. “Bookmakers always win long-term, so I want to be rooting for the same side they are,” while pointing out it is the money, not number of bets that will move the line. 

Others like corroboration. If the same team is loved by both the handle and volume of bets, that’s “Truly a public play,” according to noted gambler Big Red. Finally, the splits are considered a sharp versus square metric. If majority of bets are on side A, but most of the money is on side B, some gamblers consider this equating to side B betting a sharp versus square bet.

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Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Tonight’s NBA basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Sacramento OVER 

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Boston

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Golden State -1.5 now +7.5; Toronto -8.5 to -12.5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: New Orleans UNDER, Brooklyn UNDER

Tonight’s college basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Merrimack, Alabama State

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: CS Northridge, West Carolina

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Sacramento State -3 to -6.5, Purdue -18.5 to -21.5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Hawaii 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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NBA market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Lakers (public dog); Dallas OVER 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Denver; Miami UNDER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: None

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Cleveland -4 to -4.5

College basketball market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: High Point, Charleston, Wofford

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: UMKC, High Point, Abiline Christian

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Oakland, UMKC 

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Arkansas -16.5 to -20.5, Montana +2.5 to -1.5, TCU -23 to -19.5, UMBC -5.5 to -8.5

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Who is the public betting on for Friday, December 2. 

NBA betting market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Denver, Golden State, Cleveland 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New Orleans, Denver; LA Lakers OVER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Houston; Atlanta UNDER, Boston UNDER

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Denver -2 to -3.5

College basketball market report: 

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Georgia, Bryant, Charleston Southern

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: JMU, Kent State, Appalachian State, Texas Arlington, GA Tech

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Brown, Texas Arlington

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none 

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Week 12 NFL betting market report. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Miami, LA Chargers 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: New Orleans; Las Vegas OVER, Jacksonville UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Miami -11 to -14, NY Jets -4.5 to -6.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: New Orleans; San Francisco UNDER

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

Ohio State suffered a mauling at the claws of Michigan yesterday, and the loss pushed the Buckeyes out of the Top 4 in terms of CFP Championship chances for the first time all year. 

Additionally, Caleb Williams has put the Heisman Trophy race to bed, at least according to the odds. CJ Stroud and Max Duggan are now 25-1 longshots with Williams the overwhelming, odds-on favorite. 

Below are the latest CFP and Heisman numbers from SportsBetting   

CFP Championship

Georgia                        -165

Michigan                      +300

TCU                              +1200

USC                              +1200

Ohio State                    +1400

Alabama                       +2800

Heisman Trophy                       

Caleb Williams              -3000

CJ Stroud                      +2500

Max Duggan                 +2500

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