Thursday night NFL and college football betting splits, line moves and more. 

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The top technical handicapper in the world is ranked top 5 in both college and NBA this season and #1 in basketball combined. Thursday Night College Football GOY on Virginia vs. Georgia Tech

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Service out of San Diego is the No. 1 handicapper west of Mississippi, which includes every Las Vegas based handicapper. NBA Game of the Month on Clippers vs. Lakers side. All at OffshoreInsiders.com

New Orleans-Arizona (-2.5,43.5)

You must shop around on the side because +3 can be had. 

🏈Opened -3, 46

🏈Side: 60% of bets, but just 38% of handle on Arizona

🏈OU: 54% of bets and a stunning 80% of money on UNDER

Virginia-GA Tech (-3,47)

🏈Opened -3.5, 46.5

🏈Side: 57% of wagers, but just 43% of cash on GA Tech

🏈OU: 65% of tickets, 56% of money on UNDER

Troy-South Alabama (-3, 47)

🏈Opened -3, 54.5

🏈Side: 56% of bets, 53% of cash on USA

🏈OU: 64% of tickets, 89% of money on UNDER  

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Alabama was the first “true contender” to lose a game this season, but everyone still expects the Tide to reach the College Football Playoffs for the eighth time in the tournament’s nine-year history.

SportsBetting made Bama a slight favorite over Michigan and Tennessee for the fourth spot on the teams to make the CFP odds below. 

Additionally, there are updated numbers for the next college coach fired. Bryan Harsin, who many think should already be out of a job, is the odds-on favorite.  

Which teams will qualify for the CFP?                      

Georgia                       -500

Ohio State                   -500

Clemson                      -110

Alabama                      +205

Michigan                     +220

Tennessee                   +220

TCU                             +700

Oregon                        +1000

USC                             +1000

MIssissippi                  +1200

UCLA                           +1200

Syracuse                      +2000

How many undefeated teams will qualify for the CFP?                   

Over 1½ Teams                       -140

Under 1½ Teams                     +100

Will the CFP Champion be undefeated?                   

No                   -120

Yes                  -120

Next Head Coach Fired                      

Bryan Harsin (Auburn)                        -110

Jeff Scott (South Florida)                    +350

David Shaw (Stanford)                        +600

Ken Niumatalolo (Navy)                     +700

Kirk Ferentz (Iowa)                             +700

Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)                  +950

Neal Brown (West Virginia)                +950

Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)                       +1000

Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern)            +1100

Brent Venables (Oklahoma)               +2200

Scott Satterfield (Louisville)                +2200

Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame)         +5000

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First full slate of NBA, market report for October 19. 

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🏀Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Sacramento, Minnesota

🏀Biggest bets based on percentage of money: San Antonio, New York; Denver OVER, Washington OVER 

🏀Largest line moves, opener to current: Memphis -6.5 to -4, Brooklyn -4 to -2.5

🏀Biggest splits. Teams listed have the highest percent of cash compared to bets: Oklahoma City; Minnesota UNDER, Toronto UNDER 

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

🔥Pistons expected to be drastically improved with Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran.

🔥Detroit will be without Marvin Bagley III

🔥Orlando, just 10-31 SU road last year without guards Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris

🔥Cavs made huge offseason acquisition with Donovan Mitchell 

🔥Pels starting 5 did not play together at all in preseason because of injuries

🔥Nets talented but erratic with Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving 

🔥Jazz rebuilt letting go of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic

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Alabama may take a little tumble in the eyes of the pollsters, but the people who crunch numbers for a living still see the Crimson Tide as the third-best team in college football. 

The top of the CFP Championship odds at SportsBetting  remained unchanged Sunday morning, despite Alabama losing to Tennessee. 

Last week, Ohio State was the favorite (2-1 odds), Georgia was second at +225 and Bama was a close third at +250.

The Tide have slipped on the latest odds board, but still remain well ahead of Clemson and Michigan (both 12-1). 

The Volunteers jumped from 33-1 odds last week to 16-1 odds, currently.

USC went from 20-1 to 75-1 after losing to Utah.

With the week off, CJ Stroud became an even bigger favorite for the Heisman. Below are the latest CFP and Heisman numbers.

Joe Duffy off 12-1 day. Massive Sunday NFL at OffshoreInsiders.com     

National Championship                     

Georgia                       2-1

Ohio State                   2-1

Alabama                      9-2

Clemson                      12-1

Michigan                     12-1

Tennessee                   16-1

TCU                             50-1

UCLA                           50-1

Oregon                        55-1

Ole Miss                      66-1

Texas                           66-1

USC                             75-1

Oklahoma State          100-1

North Carolina            125-1

Illinois                          150-1

Penn State                  200-1

Syracuse                      200-1

Utah                            200-1

Wake Forest                250-1

Heisman Trophy                     

CJ Stroud                     1-1

Hendon Hooker          5-1

Blake Corum               10-1

Caleb Williams            10-1

Bryce Young                20-1

DJ Uiagalelei               25-1

Thompson-Robinson  25-1

Jahmyr Gibbs              25-1

Stetson Bennett          25-1

Drake Maye                33-1

Spencer Sanders         33-1

Adrian Martinez          40-1

Bo Nix                          50-1

Max Duggan                50-1

Sam Hartman              50-1

Miyan Williams           100-1

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Market report for Saturday, October 15, 2022

💰💰💰Top expert pick is Joe Duffy and it’s not close. What a day it is off 3-1 overall including MLB dogs Indians, Padres. I am 5-1 in the playoffs and more coming today! Five Wise Guys among nine bets. ACC Total of the Year. Alert! All four MLB sides added for today. After today’s portfolio, I will be 9-1 in the postseason. Let that sink in! Get the picks now at OffshoreInsiders.com

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: North Texas, New Mexico, EMU; Oklahoma State OVER, Buffalo OVER 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: New Mexico, Southern Miss, EMU; Army UNDER, Fresno State UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: JMU -10.5 to -13.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: UMass, Bowling Green, Charlotte UNLV; South Alabama UNDER 

Football weather for bettors:

Miami Ohio-Bowling Green winds 16 mph

Penn State-Michigan winds 16 mph

Kent-Toledo winds 16 mph

Northern Illinois-EMU winds 15 mph

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Betting news and notes for Saturday, October 15 from OffshoreInsiders.com

🔥Despite having the nation’s top defense, allowing just 8 points per game, Illinois is getting 6.5 at home

🔥Kansas likely will be without starting QB Jalen Davis 

🔥Alabama QB Bryce Young, many believe best in country, likely to return 

🔥FSU leading rusher Treshuan Ward is questionable. He has 72 carries for 488 yards

🔥Teams laying at least 4 points despite at least two more losses are 181-137-4. Favors Oklahoma, FAU

🔥Iowa State is young and off three straight losses by a mere combined 11 points

🔥Kentucky star QB and to NFL prospect Will Levis is expected to play, trying to break a two-game losing streak 

🔥UConn will be juiced looking for first three-game SU winning streak since 2015

🔥Auburn-Ole Miss series under four straight by an average of 15.9 points per game 

🔥James Madison top ATS team in record and spread margin going 5-0 by average of 14.5 points per game 

🔥Fresno State is 0-5 failing to cover by an average of -15.1 points per game 

🔥Ohio over 5-1 by 15 points per game 

 💰💰💰Top expert pick:  What a day it is off 3-1 overall including MLB dogs Indians, Padres. I am 5-1 in the playoffs and more coming today! Five Wise Guys among nine bets. ACC Total of the Year. Alert! All four MLB sides added for today. After today’s portfolio, I will be 9-1 in the postseason. Let that sink in! Get the picks now 

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Washington (P, 38)-Chicago

🏈Opened: Washington -1.5, 40.5

🏈Side: 61% of bets, 62% of cash on Commanders 

🏈OU: 60% of tickets, stunning 84% of money on UNDER

Temple-UCF (-23.5, 46)

🏈Opened: UCF -23.5, 58.5

🏈Side: 60% of bets, stunning 93% of money on Temple

🏈OU: 89% of tickets, but just 43% of handle on UNDER

Baylor (-3, 55)-West Virginia 

🏈Opened: Baylor -2.5, 62.5

🏈Side:67% of bets, 56% of money on Baylor 

🏈OU: 54% of tickets, 87% of cash on OVER 

💰💰💰Top expert pick is from the best ever, Joe Duffy. Normally $199 get the Bet it Trinity four day for $159! I just keep winning and winning and have one of the strongest Thursday night college and NFL cards combined ever. Two Thursday CFB totals, NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year and yes, I added the NFL total! Get the picks now  

****Friday in college footsies it’s Friday Night Total of the Year. Another massive Saturday has ACC Total of the Year among seven winners, three Wise Guys. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. So get Bet it Trinity or Joe Duffy’s Picks (includes football only weekly) seven-day pick pack or longer.

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We always talk about the perennial parity in the NFL, and the exact opposite when it comes to college football. 

Well, the latest CFP Championship odds paint an ominous picture for the pigskin lovers who pine for parity.

SportsBetting  set odds on any other team besides Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia winning the title. Outlook…not good.

2023 CFP National Champion

Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State -1000

Field (Any Other Team) +550

The above odds equate to a 90.9% implied probability that one of the three top-ranked teams will take home the title, leaving less than a 10% chance any other team pulls off an upset.

One of these teams has won the CFP Championship in five of its eight years of existence. 

And the latest odds from the website show a fresh favorite as Ohio State slides into the top spot for the first time all season.

Outside of the “Big 3” no other team has odds better than 14-1. And every team not listed below has odds of 200-1 or worse.

2023 CFP National Champion

Ohio State                   2-1       (+200)

Georgia                       9-4       (+225)

Alabama                      5-2       (+250)

Clemson                      14-1     

Michigan                     14-1     

USC                             20-1     

Tennessee                   33-1     

Oklahoma State          55-1     

Oregon                        55-1     

Ole Miss                      66-1     

TCU                             75-1     

Texas                           75-1     

UCLA                           75-1     

Penn State                  100-1   

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Saturday, October 15 free winning picks to crush Bovada

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -13 Akron

Fade poor first half teams at home if they are off a high-scoring games is 593-427. Fade home underdogs with bad defenses is 191-124. Terrible road teams not big underdogs to a team at least .400 at home is 265-186. Road teams at least three games under .500 yet laying at last 13 are 16-5 ATS since 1988, 21-0 SU. 

TEXAS -16 Iowa State

Momentum angle that says to ride team off a dominant win is 550-415-29. 

SYRACUSE -3.5 NC State

Momentum angle that says to ride team off a dominant win is 550-415-29. 

Week 7 College Football Picks ATS

Joe Duffy is loaded for another winning weekend. Two Thursday CFB totals, NFL Thursday Night NFL Game of the Year! Friday in college footsies it’s Friday Night Total of the Year. Another massive Saturday has ACC Total of the Year among seven winners, three Wise Guys. Get the picks now 

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Week 5 NFL betting market report, line moves, weather, injuries from the clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: San Francisco 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Tampa -8 to -10

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Philadelphia; Baltimore UNDER, LA Rams UNDER 

🖥NFL both AFC and NFC Totals of the Year among nine NFL. Most go early, so buy now! We are a nice 9-6 this week including only NFL. Yeah, generally we beat the line moves, but some of you did even better if you didn’t get down too early on TCU total. Get the picks now 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

Weather:

Chargers-Browns winds 15 mph 

Steelers-Bills winds 18 mph 

Injuries:

🔥Fins Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle probable

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