I told you in December why the best was ahead of us. And it’s been promises made, promises delivered ever since. Off an 11-3 weekend, 10-2 in hoops. Seven NBA winners led by three Wise Guys continues the winning. Under teams become over bets. That applies twice today, though none apply to our Wise Guys, so it is common, yet not our strongest intel tonight. Get the picks now 

Free winner:

BOSTON -4 Chicago

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 361-232-12. Road favorites off of a win that broke a losing streak 440-316-15.

Best NBA teams to bet on based on ATS margin:

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Chicago	11-5	+4.1
New York	9-9	+3.7
Lakers	10-7	+2.8

 Best NBA teams to bet against based on ATS margin:

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Sacramento	6-10	-6.2
Orlando	8-9	-4
Miami	6-8-1	-3.9
Portland	6-9	-3.9

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

We win! TNT Interconference Total of the Year wins on Milwaukee-Lakers UNDER was easy. Five winners in the NBA led by Southwest Divisional Total of the Year. Three are Wise Guys.

Looking for a great capper? Taking people behind the scenes of all the work that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks has convinced a few more to become sharp bettors. Are you ready? Get the picks now 

Free pick:

ATLANTA -6 Minnesota 

Road favorites or small underdogs on a high scoring streak is 359-231-12 as Atlanta has topped 106 in three straight. Road favorites versus teams off home win or very close loss are 588-463-24. Our top-rated simulator program has them covering 67 percent of time, winning by 12. Our second best model has them covering 55.8 percent, winning by nine. MasseyRatings gives a mild edge to Atlanta. 

This one is big. Really big. The TNT Interconference Total of the Year is among two NBA winners. Not only a math total, but a stunning 73 percent angle corroborates it and rarely applies. Get the 2-0 sweep from Joe Duffy. Get the picks now 

Free 

Utah-New Orleans OVER 216.5

Utah has been a big under team, going under 9-5 by -4.9 points per game. Though New Orleans has gone over 7-6, the margin is -2.9. Two cumulative under teams tend to go over 775-569-25. We almost made it a premium play. However a math total that had to do with performance over the last 10 games pointed towards the under. But the the two went head-to-head, it went over 11-6, a very good winning percentage but a small enough sample size to keep it below premium bet, but still with a lot of intel behind it. Our number two simulator has this going over 58.1 percent of the time. Another has it going over 57 percent of simulations. 

Best college basketball teams to bet on this season in terms of ATS margin. 

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Colgate	4-2	+13.8
Drake	11-0	+12.5
UC Riverside	6-2-1	+9.5
Missouri State	7-1	+8.5

Best teams to bet against based on ats margin

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Boston U	0-6	-15.4
McNeese State	1-6-1	-11
Duke	1-8	-10.1
Eastern Michigan	2-4	-9.2
Northern Illinois	2-10	-8.6

 Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Bet Now college basketball odds which include added rotation games, big and small colleges. Bet Now is among the elite and approved sportsbooks now offering a 100 percent sign-up bonus, with easy deposits and easy cash out. 

The same administration remains in power here, but with more systems than ever. NBA Wise Guy among five NBA winners. Two are sides, three totals. This is the scary good intel that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks. Get the picks now 

Free

ORLANDO -3.5 Minnesota

Road team off three straight road losses 324-245-18. Away favorites off loss under specific situations that apply in this game 825-654-23. This includes a subsystem of 784-612-22. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 67 percent, winning by 10.

Odds for 2021 Heisman Trophy winner are posted. Oklahoma QBs have both won their recent share of trophies in addition to making it as a finalist. Sooners signal caller Spencer Rattler leads the way at less than 3-1. The starting QB for Alabama is pretty much automatically considered among the favorites and the presumed starter Bryce Young is next on the list according to Bovada

Spencer Rattler +285

Bryce Young +375

Sam Howell +700

D’Eriq King +1200

JT Daniels +1200

Jayden Daniels +2000

Kellen Mond +1800

Kedon Slovis +1800

Matt Corral +4000

Bo Nix +4000

Spencer Sanders +4000

Tyler Shough +4000

Harrison Bailey +6600

Sean Clifford +6600

Michael Penix Jr +6600

Brock Purdy +6600

Zamir White +6600

Adrian Martinez +10000

Tanner Morgan +10000

Taulia Tagovailoa +10000

John Rhys Plumlee +10000

Emory Jones +4000

Get gift cards with Bitcoin. Amazon, Target, Walmart; most of your favorite retailers and online destinations are likely available.

Please like, subscribe, and comment on the official dad jokes YouTube channel. Great scented wax, scents for you home, car, office and warmers at DuffyScents.com. These great smelling scents are ideal for pet owners. 

DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts.

Deshaun Watson has dominated NFL headlines this week as he continues to hint that he wants out of Houston.

If he is traded this offseason, the speculations on where he could land in a blockbuster deal are endless. 

SportsBetting has updated its Watson trade odds list to include every NFL team except the Texans. 

Opening odds below and you can find current odds here:  

Deshaun Watson next team
New York Jets 2/1
Miami Dolphins 3/1
Chicago Bears 4/1
Denver Broncos 5/1
Indianapolis Colts 8/1
New England Patriots 8/1
Philadelphia Eagles 10/1
Carolina Panthers 12/1
Washington Football Team 12/1
Detroit Lions 12/1
Las Vegas Raiders 12/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 15/1
San Francisco 49ers 20/1
Dallas Cowboys 20/1
Los Angeles Rams 30/1
Minnesota Vikings 30/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 30/1
Atlanta Falcons 30/1
New York Giants 30/1
Tennessee Titans 40/1
Cleveland Browns 40/1
Los Angeles Chargers 50/1
Cincinnati Bengals 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50/1
Arizona Cardinals 70/1
Baltimore Ravens 70/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Seattle Seahawks 100/1
Green Bay Packers 200/1
Kansas City Chiefs 300/1


Patrick Mahomes will be in the concussion protocol this week, which will wreak havoc on the AFC Conference Championship and Super Bowl odds. 

Before Mahomes was injured, the early line at SportsBetting had the Chiefs listed as 4-point favorites with an over/under of 56 points. 

If Mahomes is not able to play, the Chiefs wouldn’t be favored. 

Odds with Mahomes:
Bills at Chiefs -4
Over/Under 56

Odds witout Mahomes:
Bills at Chiefs +2
Over/Under 51

The Chiefs have been Super Bowl LV favorites all season, but without Mahomes next week they would see their chances drop below Buffalo’s, and potentially at the bottom of the four-team list following tonight’s game. 

Get gift cards with Bitcoin. Amazon, Target, Walmart; most of your favorite retailers and online destinations are likely available.

Please like, subscribe, and comment on the official dad jokes YouTube channel. Great scented wax, scents for you home, car, office, and warmers at DuffyScents.com. These great smelling scents are ideal for pet owners. 

DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts.

Steam added at 12:04 ET! Thanks to the biggest acquisition ever of super systems, balanced by the two best simulation models, and an avalanche of bad beats a distant memory, America’s only Grandmaster Sports Handicapper is back to normal. 47-31 for 60 percent in the NBA this calendar year. Seven NBA winners led by Wise Guy continues our clockwork winning. Both of our side angles qualify as “use the oddsmaker’s knowledge against them” and would qualify as counterintuitive. We explain in the analysis. Get the picks now 

Free pick from Joe Duffy is 

CHICAGO +1 Oklahoma City 

The Bulls have lost three straight on long road trip. But road teams off three straight road losses are 323-244-18. Road teams on road trip yet much more rested are 246-180-9. When one team is more rested, happens with home team almost exactly twice as much as road team. With two days more rest, it favors the home team by just short of a three-game margin. So when the road team has at two more days rest, no wonder they cover at 53.5 percent rate. 

Our second best simulator gives Chicago a 56.3 percent chance of covering. Our top model a modest edge to Bulls. Darius Bazley, solid PF for OKC is questionable. He averages double-digit scoring. Bulls star Lauri Markkanen is probable. Ryan Arcidiacono likely too. 

There is a different favorite for each of the half dozen head coaching vacancies remaining.

SportsBetting has posted fresh odds for who will take over duties for the Chargers, Eagles, Falcons, Jets, Lions and Texans. 

The Jaguars were not included due to reports that Urban Meyer will be hired today. 

Arthur Smith is the only candidate on the lists to be the odds-on favorite, meaning he has lower than 1/1 odds to be hired. Smith is the only coach on every list, but he’s the odds-on favorite in Atlanta. 

Odds are brought to you by SportsBetting and current odds can be found here:  

Chargers next head coach 
Matt Eberflus 7/2 (10/1 odds last week)
Brandon Staley 4/2 
Brian Daboll 9/2 
Robert Saleh 5/1 
Joe Brady 7/1 
Eric Bieniemy 8/1 
Arthur Smith 9/1 
Dennis Allen 10/1 
Jason Garrett 15/1 

Eagles next head coach 
Joe Brady 5/2 (6/1 odds last week)
Lincoln Riley 3/1 
Robert Saleh 5/1 
Arthur Smith 7/1 
Eric Bieniemy 9/1 
Duce Staley 10/1 
Kellen Moore 10/1 
Todd Bowles 12/1 
Jerod Mayo 12/1 
Mike Kafka 12/1 
Brandon Staley 15/1 
Ryan Day 20/1 

Falcons next head coach 
Arthur Smith 4/5 (6/1 odds last week)
Joe Brady 3/1 
Eric Bieniemy 3/1 
Nathaniel Hackett 7/1 
Brandon Staley 9/1 
Raheem Morris 10/1 
Robert Saleh 10/1 
Todd Bowles 12/1 

Jets next head coach 
Robert Saleh 2/1 (8/1 odds last week)
Doug Pederson 5/2 
Brian Daboll 5/1 
Arthur Smith 5/1 
Brandon Staley 7/1 
Eric Bieniemy 8/1 
Joe Brady 9/1 
Aaron Glenn 10/1 
Matt Eberflus 12/1 
Marvin Lewis 15/1 

Lions next head coach 
Eric Bieniemy 5/2 (4/1 odds last week)
Robert Saleh 3/1 
Arthur Smith 7/2 
Dan Campbell 5/1 
Marvin Lewis 8/1 
Todd Bowles 10/1 
Darrell Bevell 10/1 

Texans next head coach 
Jim Caldwell 5/2 (10/1 odds last week)
Eric Bieniemy 3/1 
Marvin Lewis 4/1 
Joe Brady 4/1 
Leslie Frazier 7/1 
Brandon Staley 8/1 
Arthur Smith 10/1 
David Culley 10/1 
Josh McDaniels 15/1 

Some spectacular NBA systems on both sides and totals including famed anti-splits angle that wins in every pro sport. A rare case where our top two computer simulators have very highly rated bets on the same college hoop side. Hint: public dogs die and our offshore and inland index says there is a big contrarian bet favoring us. NBA Wise Guy, four NBA Majors, college basketball Major. Get the picks now 

Free winner on 

DALLAS -4 Charlotte 

Road favorites that shoot substantially more three-pointers than league average are 1316-1073-54. Charlotte has won and covered four straight. We use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Fading hot underdogs 448-324-22. Fade home underdogs off win under specific situations are 61-23-1. Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 682-544-19. 

So why not a premium pick? Though this is premium level intel insofar as super systems, our top simulation software likes the home underdog. You have seen my with outsourced picks from the short-list of very entrusted experts. One of the better and one who can sway bet on Charlotte. But yet he used flawed logic expressing surprise that a team that won 118-99 at Dallas as an eight-point underdog would be such a large underdog at home here. 

Away favorites of -3.5 or more in same season revenge of a 19 point or more loss are 33-16-1 for 67.3 percent. I bet at Bovada  

JDP’s new wave of super systems has been a goldmine. We are 41-25 NBA in 2021. Wise Guy among four NBA, plus a college basketball winner. Joe Duffy’s exclusive proprietary information continues to lap the industry. Get the picks now 

Free NBA pick:

Cleveland-Utah OVER 205

The Cavs are the top UNDER team in the name going under 9-2 by an average of -13.2 points per game. Utah is under 6-4 by -4.2 points per game. Under bet, right? Nope. Two cumulative under teams regress to the mean and go over at a rate of 769-556-25. One of our top simulators has this going over 67 percent of the time.