8-3 bowls from Grandmaster! The Industry Bowl Game of the Year, side and total on WVU-Army. Two Thursday college football winners. This is not just Joe Duffy’s Bowl Game of the Year. This is the handicapping industry’s biggest bet of bowl season. Four NBA winners led by NBA Total of the Month. Get the picks now 

Free winner comes from NBA:

PHILADELPHIA -3 Orlando

The Magic are 4-0 SU, yet home underdogs. An angle that says to fade hot home underdogs is 446-324-22. Away favorites against undefeated teams a solid 40-32-2 in history of database. The more disappointing offense based on based on delta points scored is 407-306-14. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. 

Orlando is 4-0 ats by 9.4 ppg, while the Sixers are 2-2 -3.5 ats margin. Regression to the mean angle based on ats margin, says go with the much worse spread is 256-196-6. Joel Embid expected back for Sixers, while Terrence Ross is out for Magic. Ross is averaging 28 minutes per game, 11.1 points. Embid, of course, is Philly’s best player. I bet at Bovada

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Strongest bet in gambling, a Wise Guy NBA with some angles that you have won with for decades. NBA side and total Majors and 4 ET college basketball side. Get the picks now 

NBA free pick is:

Atlanta-Brooklyn OVER 239

This is the highest total each team has seen. In fact, last game Atlanta’s total was just 225.5 and Brooklyn’s has just 227.5 and they went under. The teams have gone under a combined 6-of-7. But wait, I said the over. Doesn’t everything I said imply the under? 

Well, we do have an angle that uses the oddsmakers knowledge against them, utilizing some of the numbers I just quoted and create an angle that is a stunning 2250-1898-80, including 430-284-25 since 2015 for 60.2 percent. 

The Nets will get Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back from load management and both are very good offensive players. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate this game going over 67 percent with 248 points projected. Rebuilt Atlanta is gelling on offense. 

I bet at Bovada

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is 7-3 with bowl picks. Wise Guy college football prime time winning side. Seven NBA winners led by four Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Night college basketball winner added. Get the picks now 

Free pick:

OLE MISS +2 Alabama at Bovada

One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 69 percent. Another top model has our side covering 55 percent.  

KenPom has it as a one-point game. Obviously a mild edge, but still mild corroboration is better than cancelling pick. Massey agrees with the one-point contest. 

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has NFL Wise Guy. I went 4-2 NBA yesterday, nailing only Wise Guy. Five NBA Wise Guys, side and four totals. Get the picks now 

NBA free pick is 

DENVER -6.5 Houston

The much more disappointing offense based on delta points scored is 403-306-14. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. Houston covered their only game, while Denver is 0-2 by -9.5 ppg. Regression to the mean angle says go with bad ats team versus a good one that is 252-195-6.

Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has Houston as the public play and public dogs die. It is rare when both our indexes have fairly strong contrarian bets that point towards betting on the favorite. 

Best teams to bet on in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests. 

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Missouri State	3-0	+17
UC Riverside	3-0-1	+14.2
Kent State	3-0	+13.3
Drake	8-0	+13.3
Winthrop	5-0	+12.7
Baylor	6-0	+12.7

Best teams to bet against in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests. 

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Long Beach State	1-2	-14.5
San Jose State	0-4	-13.6
Northern Illinois	0-7	-13.2

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are rolling this season, and have around 50/50 odds to become the fourth team to complete an undefeated season going in to the NCAA Tournament. 

Since 1979, only UNLV, Wichita State and Kentucky have accomplished the flawless feat. 

U.S. sportsbook SportsBetting has made the Zags a small underdog to complete an undefeated season. None of the aforementioned teams went on to win the title, and Gonzaga has 4/1 odds to do so.

Gonzaga is a 39-point favorite tonight against Northern Arizona.

Also below are updated NCAA Championship odds as well as the latest Wooden Award odds, where Iowa’s Luka Garza is an enormous favorite. 

Will Gonzaga finish the regular season and WCC tournament undefeated?
Yes +100
No -130

Will Gonzaga finish the 2020-21 season undefeated? (Regular season, conference tournament and NCAA Tournament included)
Yes +400
No -625

Will Gonzaga be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -400
No +275

Will Gonzaga be No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -300
No +225

Will Gonzaga reach Final Four in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes -200
No +160


NCAA Championship  

Gonzaga 4/1
Baylor 10/1
Villanova 11/1
Kansas 12/1
Iowa 13/1
Illinois 16/1
Michigan State 20/1
West Virginia 25/1
Texas 25/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Virginia 28/1
Tennessee 28/1
Creighton 28/1
Texas Tech 33/1
Duke 33/1
Indiana 33/1
Florida State 33/1
San Diego State 33/1
Kentucky 40/1
North Carolina 40/1
Michigan 40/1
Ohio State 45/1
Arizona State 45/1
Houston 47/1
NC State 47/1
Florida 50/1
LSU 60/1
Oregon 60/1
Purdue 70/1
Alabama 70/1
SMU 70/1
Xavier 70/1
UCLA 70/1
Penn State 70/1
Auburn 70/1
Missouri 70/1
Stanford 70/1
Louisville 80/1
Arkansas 80/1
Richmond 80/1
Connecticut 80/1
Clemson 80/1
Arizona 80/1
Rutgers 90/1
Colorado 90/1
Memphis 90/1
Butler 90/1
Marquette 100/1
Maryland 100/1
Oklahoma 100/1
Miami 100/1
Virginia Tech 100/1
USC 100/1
Syracuse 100/1
Notre Dame 100/1
Providence 100/1
Georgetown 100/1
Iowa State 100/1
Wichita State 100/1
St. Louis 110/1
Seton Hall 125/1
Washington 125/1
BYU 150/1
Utah 150/1
Cincinnati 150/1
South Carolina 150/1
Texas A&M 150/1
Minnesota 150/1
Georgia 150/1
Georgia Tech 150/1


Wooden Award 

Luka Garza -385
Ayo Dosunmu +440
Corey Kispert +1000
Drew Timme +1200
Jalen Suggs +1200
Cade Cunningham +2500
Jared Butler +2500
Trayce Jackson-Davis +2500
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl +4000
Garrison Brooks +8000
James Bouknight +8000
Marcus Zegarowski +8000
McKinley Wright IV +8000
Ochai Agbaji +8000
Quentin Grimes +8000
Remy Martin +8000
Cam Thomas +10000
Collin Gillespie +10000
Derek Culver +10000
Evan Mobley +10000
Jalen Crutcher +10000
Keyontae Johnson +10000
Nate Reuvers +10000
Sam Hauser +10000
Kofi Cockburn +12000
MaCio Teague +12000
Matt Coleman III +12000
Matthew Hurt +12000
B.J Boston +15000
Chris Smith +15000

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Play the entire year to see Alabama and Clemson play in the National Championship game again? Oddsmakers have given a glimpse into the future of the CFP National Championship game on January 11.

International sportsbook SportsBetting has set odds for the four scenarios that could play out for the CFP title game. 

Alabama vs. Clemson (+4.5)

Alabama vs. Ohio State (+10.5)

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame (+7)

Clemson vs. Notre Dame (+14)

Get the winning bet at OffshoreInsiders.com  

There’s been plenty of criticism with the CFP committee’s rankings this season, and the semifinal odds show a huge disparity between two teams. 

Alabama is listed as a 19-point favorite against Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl, which marks the largest spread in CFP history.

Below are the opening CFP odds, national championship odds and Heisman odds from SportsBetting

Notre Dame +19
Alabama -19
Over/Under: 65.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame +750, Alabama -1200

Ohio State +7
Clemson -7
Over/Under: 65
Moneyline: Ohio State +250, Clemson -300

The previous high for a CFP spread was at the 2019 Orange Bowl where Alabama was a 14.5-point against Oklahoma. 

List of CFP Spreads (sorted by biggest spread)
2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama (-19) vs. Notre Dame
2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma
2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma
2016/17 Peach Bowl: Alabama (-12.5) vs. Washington
2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame
2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State
2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State
2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Florida State
2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-7) vs. Ohio State

– Favorites are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in semifinal history
– Favorites are 10-7 straight up and 8-9 against the spread in CFP history

The totals for this year’s two CFP semis are the fifth and sixth highest, respectively. 

List of CFP Totals (sorted by highest totals)
2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oregon (80.5)
2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma (75)
2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State (74)
2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5)
2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (65.5)
2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (65)
2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (63.5)
2017/18 Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia (62.5)
2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (61.5)

– Overs are 9-8 in CFP history
– Overs are 5-7 in CFP semifinal history

History is not on Notre Dame’s side as the biggest upset in CFP history was just 7.5 points. 

List of CFP Upsets (sorted by biggest upset)
2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama
2016/17 CFP NCG: Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama
2014/15 CFP NCG: Ohio State (+6) vs. Oregon
2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson (+5) over Alabama
2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson (+3.5) over Oklahoma
2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (+1) over Ohio State


In terms of CFP National Championship odds, Alabama is the odds-on favorite. 

Alabama -175 (4/7)
Clemson +200 (2/1)
Ohio State +600 (6/1) 
Notre Dame +1800 (18/1)


Finally, DeVonta Smith is the favorite to become the first non-quarterback since Derrick Henry in 2015 to win the Heisman Trophy. 

A wide receiver hasn’t won the Heisman since 1991 when Desmond Howard took home the honors at Michigan. 

DeVonta Smith -200 (1/2)
Mac Jones +150 (3/2)
Trevor Lawrence +1000 (10/1)
Najee Harris +1600 (16/1)
Kyle Trask +2500 (25/1)

The MasterLockLine is as hot as it has been since restart. If you buy picks elsewhere, you will never experience as 23-4 run. Winning since 1980 on the scorephones, two college basketball and two college football winners tonight. Get the picks now 

Free pick from Joe Duffy is:

Montana State-Washington State UNDER 133.5

Washington State is thinned by injuries with upperclassmen Aljaz Kunc and Tony Miller both likely out. Head coach Kyle Smith has slowed the pace, knowing he can’t go deep into bench. Kunc averages 9.7 ppg and kept defenses honest with his presence down low. 

The Cougars are 12^th in the nation in field goal defense. This will slow down a Montana State offense that will see its toughest test. WSU is 254^th in offensive efficiency based on points per 100 possessions. I bet at Bet Now

I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but nuanced. The devil is in the details. 

I’ve always affirmed that bookmakers and squares loathe uncertainty, but sharps exploit it. But that’s because of the “predictable unpredictability” of sports betting. But in unprecedented times, the unpredictability was…unpredictable for once. The world being upended meant tested and confirmed regression to the mean and other models lacked the normal conditions to apply. 

But why do the biggest slumps I’ve ever had continually, and I do mean always and forever get followed by even greater winning streaks? Do I have a guardian angel? Nope. We stay the course. When squares profit short-term, the books know they will double-down on same techniques—generally favorites and overs, though it is a little more complex than that. Books have to adjust, only strengthening the sharpest pro bettor angles in a freakish decline. 

A great quote from It’s a Wonderful Life “Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why.” Not surprisingly, we have a lot more demonstrated winning systems favoring unders in NFL. If you are a long-term client, you’ve cashed in for many years with us. The first four weeks of NFL 2020 saw all games over 36-22-5 for greater than 62 percent. Books were saying both privately to me and in public articles, they can’t keep getting parched by overs, so they shaded the lines. We didn’t panic and after a 7-7 week 5, 56 percent of NFL games have gone under. That’s not our bets, that’s just overall in the league. 

And our top systems have been hitting over 60 percent since markets righted themselves—again. Just as they always do.

But Joeybagodonuts is still chasing his losses, forever hoping he can replicate the magic of the squares getting the big upper hand early. When we say the winning streaks always have outnumbered and outlasted the rare losing streaks, it’s from decades of experience and wisdom as to why it happens. 

The biggest lesson of 2020 for sports bettors is when you have proven metrics, you need to persevere. Don’t jump off a ship that has scientifically proven it won’t sink. You will only drown by leaping overboard. 

I’ll bet Mr. Potter was a shrewd gambler.

The author, Joe Duffy CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is enjoying punishing the bookies for getting a rare upper hand in the early weeks of football. So are the other services on said site, LateInfo topping the list.