As this report is filed, Joe Duffy’s Picks a nice 5-1 this week. Big portfolio up at OffshoreInsiders.com

DENVER +4 Las Vegas at Bovada  

• Bad teams off a loss that was not a blowout 254-152-5
  • Denver lost by one possession to Atlanta 
• Road teams off road loss are 323-223-11
• Fading bad defenses off a win is 154-93-5
• Combining first and third systems 11-1 all-time 
  • 8-4 SU even though a dog all 12 games
• Don’t think Carr is as great as his 16 TDs to 2 INTs indicate 

3-0 start to the week for Joe Duffy’s Picks. Friday college football side and total. Saturday, seven college football winners led by AAC Underdog GOY, ESPN+ Total of the Year, Big 12 Total of the Year! I am 28-9 with named plays! Much more coming.  Get the picks now

Free:

OHIO STATE -24.5 Maryland

• Style points? Heisman points for Justin Fields 
  • 11 TDs, 11 incompletions 
• Maryland off stunner winning at Penn State 35-19 getting 27.5
• Teams off wins as big dogs and facing another quality foe are 248-187-9 go against (favors OSU)
• Big favorites in games expected to be high scoring 175-125-12
• That being said only second time in history a team has consecutive wins as dogs of at least 17 in each game
• But sixth time a team off consecutive wins as an underdog of at least 15 and FADING them is 5-0 
  • 21-9 if consecutive wins as double-digit underdogs 
  • Won’t sneak up on Ohio State and may be fat and happy 
• Maryland giving up 4.9 yards per rush teams normally allowing 4.3

The pollsters and oddsmakers don’t always see eye to eye.

The first AP Poll for the upcoming men’s college basketball season was released today, and so were odds for the 2020-21 NCAA National Championship by U.S. sportsbooks. 

The poll has Gonzaga ranked No. 1, followed by Baylor, Villanova, Virginia and Iowa. 

At SportsBetting, the top spot on the betting board belongs to Villanova with 8/1 odds. Gonzaga is second at 9/1 while Iowa (10/1), Kentucky (10/1) and Baylor (12/1) round out the Top 5. 

Duke is No. 9 in the polls, but the Blue Devils have the same odds (15/1) as Virginia. 

Kentucky is 10th in the polls but tied for third in the odds. Kansas is 6th in the polls but tied for ninth in the odds.

Michigan State and Texas Tech are 13th and 14th, respectively, in the AP Poll, but they are tied for the eighth-best title odds overall. 

Below you will find the full list of NCAAM National Championship odds from SportsBetting 

Current odds that will be updated daily: 

National Championship Odds

Villanova 8/1
Gonzaga 9/1
Iowa 10/1
Kentucky 10/1
Baylor 12/1
Duke 15/1
Virginia 15/1
Michigan State 20/1
Texas Tech 20/1
Illinois 22/1
Kansas 22/1
Tennessee 22/1
North Carolina 25/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Florida State 28/1
Oregon 28/1
Creighton 33/1
Houston 33/1
Michigan 33/1
West Virginia 33/1
Arizona State 40/1
Florida 40/1
Indiana 40/1
Louisville 40/1
Ohio State 40/1
Texas 40/1
Arizona 50/1
Connecticut 50/1
Purdue 50/1
UCLA 50/1
Alabama 66/1
Arkansas 66/1
Auburn 66/1
LSU 66/1
San Diego State 66/1
Stanford 66/1
Colorado 80/1
Maryland 80/1
Memphis 80/1
Miami FL 80/1
Richmond 80/1
Rutgers 80/1
Seton Hall 80/1
USC 80/1
Butler 100/1
BYU 100/1
Clemson 100/1
Dayton 100/1
Marquette 100/1
Notre Dame 100/1
Oklahoma 100/1
Ole Miss 100/1
Penn State 100/1
Providence 100/1
SMU 100/1
St. Louis 100/1
Syracuse 100/1
Western Kentucky 100/1
Xavier 100/1
Georgetown 125/1
Iowa State 125/1
Northern Iowa 125/1
Washington 125/1
Wichita State 125/1
Cincinnati 150/1
DePaul 150/1
Georgia Tech 150/1
NC State 150/1
South Carolina 150/1
St. Johns 150/1
St. Mary’s CA 150/1
Texas A&M 150/1
UNLV 150/1
Utah 150/1
Utah State 150/1
Boston College 200/1
Davidson 200/1
Kansas State 200/1
Minnesota 200/1
Mississipi State 200/1
Missouri 200/1
Nebraska 200/1
Rhode Island 200/1
TCU 200/1
VCU 200/1
Virginia Tech 200/1
Boise State 250/1
Georgia 250/1
Pittsburgh 250/1
Temple 250/1
Vanderbilt 250/1
Wake Forest 250/1
California 500/1
Iona 500/1

Notre Dame saw its College Football Playoff championship chances increase after last night’s upset of Clemson.

However, Clemson still has better odds than the Irish in today’s updated CFP odds. The bookies assume if there is a rematch on a neutral field in the ACC title game with Trevor Lawrence under center, the Tigers will prevail. 

Alabama has moved into sole possession of the favorite spot while Ohio State is a close second. Undefeated teams such as BYU, Cincinnati, Liberty, Coastal Carolina and Marshall have also jumped up the list.

In terms of Heisman Trophy, Justin Fields leads the way with Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence not far behind. 

The below odds are from SportsBetting Fractional odds are listed first in parentheses while the +/- American odds are listed second.


SportsBetting is a licensed sportsbook in Colorado —


CFP Odds (11/8/20)

Alabama (2/1) +200
Ohio State (9/4) +225
Clemson (3/1) +300
Notre Dame (10/1) +1000
Florida (14/1) +1400
BYU (35/1) +3500
Cincinnati (35/1) +3500
Wisconsin (40/1) +4000
Texas A&M (40/1) +4000
Oklahoma (50/1) +5000
Georgia (66/1) +6600
Oklahoma State (66/1) +6600
Oregon (66/1) +6600
Texas (66/1) +6600
USC (66/1) +6600
Coastal Carolina (100/1) +10000
Liberty (100/1) +10000
Indiana (100/1) +10000
Miami (FL) (100/1) +10000
Purdue (100/1) +10000
Marshall (150/1) +15000
Auburn (150/1) +15000
Northwestern (150/1) +15000
SMU (150/1) +15000
Iowa State (150/1) +15000
UCF (200/1) +20000
Utah (200/1) +20000
Arizona (250/1) +25000
Colorado (250/1) +25000
Iowa (250/1) +25000
Minnesota (250/1) +25000
North Carolina (250/1) +25000
Washington (250/1) +25000
Washington State (250/1) +25000
Appalachian State (500/1) +50000


Heisman Trophy odds

Justin Fields (3/2) +150
Mac Jones (7/4) +175
Trevor Lawrence (5/2) +250
Kyle Trask (5/1) +500
Zach Wilson (35/1) +3500
Kellen Mond (66/1) +6600

7-2 Wise Guys, 28-9 named plays. Saturday: As CBS Total of the Year has been postponed, we now have 11 winners, four are Wise Guys college football Saturday.  Get the picks now  

PITTSBURGH +2 Florida State

• The turbo-charged version of short road underdogs that you have heard about on satellite radio is 867-627-41
• Pittsburgh winless road, FSU 2-1 SU home
  • Terrible road teams not getting more than 3 to a team good at home is 308-232-10
  • Includes 62 percent if they are on a four-game losing streak
• Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is doubtful
• Backup quarterback Joey Yellen got baptism by fire against Notre Dame and Miami but would face one of the worst secondaries in ACC
• Pitt’s running game has been a bust. Thought they went five-deep but will go top heavy with Vincent Davis and AJ Davis

With the Pac-12 set to begin its 2020 season this Saturday, here are the updated odds for the conference champion, individual team victories and the remaining trio of quarterback battles from SportsBetting  

Additionally, since Steve Addazio won’t reveal a starting QB for Colorado State’s game tonight, SportsBetting, which is located in the Colorado, has also created odds for who will be under center against Wyoming.

Pac-12 Odds: 

Oregon +180
USC +200
Washington +500
Utah +700
Arizona State +850
Cal +2500
Washington State +2500
Stanford +2800
UCLA +2800
Arizona +5000
Oregon State +8000
Colorado +10000

Victory totals: 

Oregon
Over/Under 6 wins

USC
Over/Under 5.5 wins

Washington
Over/Under 4.5 wins

Utah
Over/Under 4.5 wins

Arizona State
Over/Under 4.5 wins

Cal
Over/Under 4.5 wins

Stanford
Over/Under 3.5 wins

UCLA
Over/Under 3.5 wins

Washington State
Over/Under 2 wins

Arizona
Over/Under 1.5 wins

Oregon State
Over/Under 1.5 wins

Colorado
Over/Under 1.5 wins

QB battles: 

Utah starting quarterback vs. Arizona
Jake Bentley -1100
Cameron Rising +675

Oregon starting quarterback vs. Stanford
Tyler Shough -1000
Anthony Brown +650

Washington starting quarterback at Cal
Kevin Thomson -200
Jacob Sirmon +150
Dylan Morris +800
Ethan Garbers +1200

Colorado State starting quarterback vs Wyoming
Todd Centeio +150
Patrick O’Brien -200

OffshoreInsiders.com has all the bets you need. 

Never, ever, ever doubt the greatest handicapper to ever live. It’s been a 2020 hindsight start to the year you could say. But a complete 6-0 sweep of the early card, only the Bengals were a sweat! The entire industry’s NFL Game of the Year on the Lions wins! Were you on the outside looking in? Still time to win! SNF total, plus NLCS Game 7, heavily discounted. See night only option! Get the picks now

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

NFL

Wise Guy

DETROIT -3 Jacksonville 1 ET

NFL Game of the Year

We have an angle that deals with fading struggling home underdogs that is a stunning 33-0 ats since 2012. Go with bad road teams off a loss that was not a blowout is 252-151-5. Road favorites off bye under specific circumstances that apply today are 69-33 for 67.6 percent.

CINCINNATI +7.5 Indianapolis 1 ET

Going with road underdogs off a road game is a very good play. There are many systems that apply to that, but the best one is 89-25-5 for 78.1 percent in the history of our database. However, another that has to do with coming off a rout loss is 57-19-1. One of our simulators has the Bengals covering 57.9 percent, which for NFL sides is a high percentage and in fact the strongest side this week.

Major

ATLANTA +4 Minnesota 1 ET

Many angles about going with bad teams, especially on the road apply. Historically, the NFL is the top regression to the mean sport. One about going with winless underdogs is 114-65. We also preach how it is tough to manufacture emotion. The firing of Dan Quinn will light a fire under this underachieving team.

Cincinnati-Indianapolis OVER 46 1 ET

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The over version goes over at a rate of 750-530-26 including 102-53-6 since 2018. It has never had a losing season. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found nearly 60 percent of simulations going over.

Houston-Tennessee OVER 53.5 1 ET

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The over version goes over at a rate of 750-530-26 including 102-53-6 since 2018. It has never had a losing season.

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