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Essential to my handicapping prosperity has been zigging while many gamblers are zagging. However, in this essay, I will hop on the bandwagon in chattering about bad beats.
Consistent with not being part of the echo chamber, I do differentiate between “bad beats” and heartbreaking losses, though they are far from mutually exclusive. My top two criterion for true bad beats:
Irrational happenings ensued in true garbage time. The straight up results was already decided
Overtime/extra inning heartbreak. A big underdog fails to cover in overtime or it takes multiple overtimes to exceed the total
The 2014 Bahamas Bowl is widely deemed one of the ugliest if not the No. 1 bad beat of all-time.
Central Michigan outscored Western Kentucky a breath-taking 34-0 in the fourth quarter, then missed on a two-point conversion to lose by one, getting 3.5 points. Soul-crushing if you were on the downside of the miracle, but because every point mattered in the straight-up outcome, I can’t regard it a top 5 bad beat, though certainly a stunner for the ages.
Also, it was nationally televised, and the only game played that day. Higher-profile games will always be more memorable and bias people.
In the name of full disclosure, of course I recall that game very well and may be partial. It was my all-time miracle cover, though probably not topping “good/bad beat” catalog for reasons nuanced above. But the overwhelming part for me individually is that it occured in the midst of one of my worst declines and bad beat runs ever. In fact, it concluded it. It’s crazy how being on the right side of such truly turns the worm.
Nice to have the Grandmaster Joe Duffy back on fire and hopefully historic number of bad beats covers bad luck for 2015.
Christmas continues to be my favorite holiday and my eldest child was born Christmas Eve. So December 24 (when said game was played) is a joyous time for me. As we were celebrating his birthday at my son’s favorite restaurant, I observed the score-in-progress on my phone and concluded it was clear my almost unheard-of rough patch would endure.
We ventured home and I seized a much-needed mental nap. Several hours later upon waking, I checked my computer and swore I was still asleep and dreaming…or awake and hallucinating. I went to probably 4-5 sites at least before I trusted the score. Yep MyBookie posted it as a winner in my account. In fact, I went to the little boys room, cleared out some cobwebs, reassured myself I was awake and corroborated the final tally one last time. What a great Christmas gift.
If I were on the other side, granted I may not have yet recovered, but for perhaps semantical reasons, some lower profile games were worse beats.
As you are about to observe, I can’t recollect every detail or even the exact teams of my most terrible bad beats. But they were lower-profile games. I long to have the photographic memory of respected capper Jeff Nadu for this assignment.
Twice in 2019, I lost unders that went into overtime more than 25 points below the total. Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern had a posted total of 45 on Oct. 19. No problem, they are tied at 10 at the end of regulation. Oh a mere 37 points in overtime kills me.
I cannot immediately recall the other one, but all but certain, we went into extra period more than 30 points below the total. And lost.
Sunday, June 13, 2004, I made one of my biggest bets ever. It was my IL Total of the Year. Overwhelming evidence all pointed towards the New York Yankees-San Diego UNDER 10.5.
What a call. Or so I thought. San Diego leads 2-0, two outs, bottom 9, nobody on. And then all hell broke loose. Of course Yankees tie and send to extra innings. Then the teams combined for seven runs in the 12thas the Bronx Bombers put it over the total with two outs to end it!
The reason I suck on my bar trivia team is because I battle to recall meticulous particulars, even teams involved. Despite my research acumen, only recalling conferences, not opponents robs me from presenting easily quantifiable nominations. But premise and basic essentials of these are accurate if not slightly imprecise.
Circa 1990, pretty certain it was a Colonial Athletic Conference game on Sports Channel America. Though I don’t swear it was Navy-George Mason, I did unearth that in the ’90-‘91 season Mason beat them 85-79 at a bad Navy team. I could not uncover an archived synopsis nor odds, but it may be said game. Or maybe not.
But the gist is accurate. I had the underdog +5.5 and they are winning outright by one. Favorite has last possession and gets back into front court and calls timeout with seconds remaining. The only realistic scenario I get screwed is if chalk gets fouled, makes 1-of-2 and the game continues into overtime.
But then the impossible took place. Chalk makes a three-pointer to go up by two. Underdog calls a timeout…but they had none. I believe the dead ball technical meant two-shots, plus loss of possession. Yep, chalk hits two free throws. They inbound, get fouled and convert two more free throws.
Presuming I did not fumble a detail, I am pretty certain it was seven-points in seconds to cover by a half.
A great beat I had, was possibly the first year of overtime rules in college football, 1995. Either way, mid-to-late 90s. I had the favorite laying about 9.5 in what I am all-but-certain was a late-night Pac-12 game. My team got a touchdown in overtime, but of course their opponent got possession at the “bottom” of overtime. My chalk ends it with a defensive TD to win by 13 in overtime.
If those with more unerring memories can help me fill in the blanks, please let me know!
High-profile games are clearly easier to recall. But after well-over 50,000 bets in my lifetime, I assure you the obscure ones bring every bit as much suffering or sometimes ecstasy.
The legendary Maya Angelou said, “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”
Essentially that theory applies in gambling, but not always in a positive way. I’ve learned I will forget the exact opponents, I will forget the precise details, but I will never forget how those bad beats made me feel.
Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as the best capper in sports gambling history.
The Patriots have been favored in 78 straight games during the regular season. That’s right, the last time they were an underdog was September 20, 2015, at Buffalo.
But according to the the oddsmakers, New England will find itself an underdog more than once this year.
Last week, SportsBetting released spreads for 100 games involving South division teams and their opponents (email me back if you missed them). This week, the AFC and NFC East is on deck.
The Pats are listed as underdogs in seven of their 16 games, including two at home against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Dallas is favored in two historic rivalry games against the 49ers and Steelers.
Bovada has odds posted for 2021 “Comeback Player of the Year.” Three superstars coming back from injury, Ben Roethlisberger, J.J. Watt, and A.J. Green lead the way. Green is tied for third though with no-respect poster child Nick Foles.
Cam Newtown, whose career has been in downward spiral since his MVP season is +750, tied with perennial bust Matt Stafford.
At +10,000 A.J. Rosen is an excellent long shot. Though some may argue he is too young and has not had an injury to have comeback from anything. However, he has already been written off as a bust, despite minimal chance to prove otherwise.
Bovada poker winds down its $6 million Black Diamond Poker open. But their award-winning sportsbook has updated odds on the 2020-21 NFL MVP. Last year’s Super Bowl hero Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +350, while last year’s winner Lamar Jackson is +660. Mr. Consistency, Russell Wilson is next at +750.
Last season, the consensus breakout QB was Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns. How did that work out? This season, oddmakers have Kyler Murray with that…honor. At 10-1 or +1000, clearly Bovada’s assurance is prognostic, not anything that has occured consistently on the field. Speaking of Mayfield, is he undervalued this season at +3300?
Murray is tied with perhaps the most intriguing odds of them all. Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady—did I just say Tampa QB Tom Brady—is also 10-1. Complete odds.
Bones Jones has been caught by the long arm of the law once again, and the oddsmakers are weighing in on how the champ’s latest misstep will impact his UFC future.
Additionally, the folks at SportsBetting.ag have come up with a list of odds for the UFC 249 location, and there are some hilarious options available to wager on.
UFC 249 Location Florida +225 Russia +300 United Arab Emirates +300 Mexico +500 Saudi Arabia +800 South Africa +1000 Nevada +1400 International Waters +2500 Area 51 +8000 North Korea +10000
Will Jon Jones be stripped of title belt before the end of 2020? Yes -550 No +325
Will Jon Jones be arrested again before the end of 2020? Yes -150 No +110
Will Jon Jones spend night in jail before the end of 2020? Yes -140 No +100
Will Jon Jones fight in UFC again before the end of 2020? Yes +300 No -500
We all hope that the college football season won’t be played without fans, but even if it is, there will still be odds for each and every outcome on the field.
On Friday, SportsBetting posted odds for which teams will qualify for the 2020 College Football Playoff, as well as odds for each of the 10 conferences.
Interested to know another yet one of the innumerable keys to me to having been a full-time handicapper for more than three decades? I don’t only scout sports teams, I also observe and absorb other handicappers. I’ve done Evelyn Wood readings, sometimes leading to careful analysis on most sports betting articles, podcasts, and videos that have ever emerged on the internet.
It’s a big echo chamber out there and in countless instances, they are all regurgitating the same sports handicapping urban legends I’ve disproved. Still, searching for a treasure almost always means a lot of research time is invested before stumbling on a gem.
A justifiable cynic based on peer review of countless theorems, my attention was captivated by an article posted on a Reddit betting group of all places. The essay’s affirmations were very consistent with what I’ve sermonized for years—that a majority of winning gambling systems are counterintuitive. And it was pretty well-written and articulated.
Optimistic the author was sharing some jewels; I proceeded to one of my computer programs. Trust but verify and if these angles are true, store them for future use.
Oh snap, every last one of them was rubbish. Need proof?
Lie #1: When an NBA team wins by 15 or more points, you might think that they’ve got momentum and will win their next game by double-digits as well. When you see a home favorite of ten points or more who are fresh off of 15-point win they only beat the spread just 42.5% of the time. The truth is, they cover 48 percent of the time. Perhaps he meant recently. Nope, in fact in recent years, they’ve covered at a higher rate, especially in 2018.
Playing the ultimate devil’s advocate, in the preface he alleged, “or more.” In the quoted system he left that out. True, at exactly 15, it’s closer to being accurate but what’s the objective of exactly 15 points? That’s clear cherry picking with no sensible rationale.
Lie #2: Look for any team that shot below their season average from the field and 3pt range and look over the total in their next game. Fake news yet again. This not-so-uncommon occurrence goes over 50.3 percent.
The fabrication was plausible because NBA teams do tend to bounce back. I attempted numerous combinations of if a team shot well below their season ratio in both categories and the best fusion to see the light of day was a 32-18 angle.
No need to waste our time refuting every prevarication. Not one, not even by potluck, comes close to holding up. The article got 221 upvotes, until I gave it its first downvote. Facts matter. A lot of people got hoodwinked by the fraudster. Shock, he encouraged people to message him for more info.
Oh gosh, then he quotes a ridiculous chase system. No professional sports bettors squander time and money with this crap.
The wolves in sheep’s clothing can be the lowest of the low. Neither honest and good nor dishonest and bad are synonymous.
Once upon a time, a notorious boiler room tout had a genuine handicapper, a guy who still sells picks on a high-volume network site, make picks for him. Unfortunately, his Long Island snake oil phone room peddlers found that high-profile national TV coin flips were easier to swindle a fool from his money, than a legitimate pick from MAC.
The valid capper “Cap” as we will refer to him, was re-assigned. For a short period of time, the charlatan tout was selling well-researched picks. On the other hand, there are genuine cappers, who will never lie about their records nor claim they have inside info, yet their picks aren’t worth squat.
Yes, the countless articles around the net regurgitating the warnings to stay away from the hard-sell touts are correct. Be just as worried about sweet talking swindler such as the ass clown on Reddit.
Joe Duffy actually has been a full-time pro handicapper and gambler since 1988 and part-time two years before that. Currently CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, his articles, sports betting podcasts, and videos are the industry standard.
When will the Masters golf tournament 2020 be played? Nobody knows, but odds gamblers can bet now are posted at 5 Dimes, home of the high rollers. There is no clear-cut favorite with Rory McIlroy a not-so-prohibitive +650 or 13-2. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1.
Rory McIlroy +650
Jon Rahm +1100
Justin Thomas +1200
Tiger Woods +1200
Brooks Koepka +1400
Dustin Johnson +1600
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Patrick Reed +2200
Adam Scott +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Jordan Spieth +2800
Justin Rose +2800
Rickie Fowler +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Tony Finau +3000
Bubba Watson +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Jason Day +4000
Phil Mickelson +4000
Webb Simpson +4000
Louis Oosthuizen +5000
Marc Leishman +5000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Paul Casey +5000
Collin Morikawa +5500
Gary Woodland +5500
Henrik Stenson +6000
Tyrrell Hatton +6000
Sergio Garcia +6600
Shane Lowry +6600
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Cameron Smith +8000
Francesco Molinari +8000
Lee Westwood +8000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +8000
Viktor Hovland +8000
Branden Grace +10000
Cameron Champ +10000
Charl Schwartzel +10000
Danny Willett +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Scottie Scheffler +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Abraham Ancer +12500
Bernd Wiesberger +12500
Graeme McDowell +12500
Joaquin Niemann +12500
Matthew Wolff +12500
Alex Noren +14000
Billy Horschel +15000
Brendon Todd +15000
Byeong Hun An +15000
Corey Conners +15000
Erik Van Rooyen +15000
Hao Tong Li +15000
Jim Furyk +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Max Homa +15000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello +15000
Robert MacIntyre +15000
Thorbjorn Olesen +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Charles Howell III +17500
Charley Hoffman +17500
Eddie Pepperell +17500
J.B. Holmes +17500
Jazz Janewattananond +17500
Keegan Bradley +17500
Victor Perez +17500
Adam Hadwin +17500
Aaron Wise +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
Jimmy Walker +20000
Kevin Na +20000
Kyle Stanley +20000
Lanto Griffin +22500
Martin Kaymer +22500
C.T. Pan +25000
Jason Kokrak +25000
Justin Harding +25000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +25000
Si Woo Kim +25000
Paul Waring +27500
Lucas Bjerregaard +30000
Fred Couples +50000
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