Category Archives: Uncategorized

Pro Gamblers Think the Opposite of Square Gamblers; Jaw-Dropping Examples

Most successful systems fit under umbrella of “counterintuitive.” Here are show notes from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s latest sports betting tutorial. Trapped inside while under quarantine? Check out what this vetted sportsbook has going. Hint: a lot of money to be won!

  • If hotter and better teams were the teams that covered most, no bookies would be around
  • Always regression to mean
  • Best teams would generally have to play better to cover
  • Worst teams would generally have to play even worse

Know exceptions

  • NBA totals, especially recent years with rules having scores skyrocketing
    • Most top over systems with high totals
    • Most to under systems with low totals
  • Reasonable explanation as inflated scores have bettors
    • Terrified of low totals under
    • Even over players get sticker shock at 240

Conclusion

  • In sports handicapping “trusting instincts is bad”
    • Oddsmakers know what common beliefs are
  • Toughest bets to root for are generally better bets
    • Colder, inferior teams

Joe Duffy is a predictive sports modeling pioneer and still the best. His bets are at OffshoreInsiders.com   

Top NBA Pick? Oddsmakers Say Anthony Edwards

With multiple college basketball players declaring for the NBA Draft today, odds are out for each of the top five picks.

According to odds from SportsBetting, Georgia guard Anthony Edwards will be selected No. 1 overall this summer. 

Deni Avdija, an Israeli professional basketball player, is favored to get picked in the No. 2 spot and LaMelo Ball third. Player of the Year, Obi Toppin, and James Wiseman round out the top 5.

1st Overall Pick

Anthony Edwards -150

James Wiseman +175

LaMelo Ball +400

Cole Anthony +600

Deni Avdija +600

2nd Overall Pick

Deni Avdija +125

LaMelo Ball +150

Anthony Edwards +300

James Wiseman +500

Obi Toppin +600  

3rd Overall Pick

LaMelo Ball +150

Deni Avdija +300

James Wiseman +300

Obi Toppin +500

Anthony Edwards +600

Cole Anthony +600

4th Overall Pick

Obi Toppin +200

James Wiseman +250

Deni Avdija +400

LaMelo Ball +400

Cole Anthony +600

Anthony Edwards +800

Onyeka Okongwu +800

5th Overall Pick

James Wiseman +200

Obi Toppin +250

Cole Anthony +400

Deni Avdija +600

Onyeka Okongwu +600

LaMelo Ball +800

RJ Hampton +800

Anthony Edwards +1000

The horrible coronavirus has given Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.comsome time to update podcasts and videos with sports betting secrets with tips on sports gambling strategy.  

BetOnline Offers Stunning Poker, Blackjack Bonuses and More

The horrible coronavirus has most of the world forced indoors. The good news is approved and fully vetted sportsbook Betonline, home of the opening line has massive bonuses on casino and table games.  Poker Reload Bonus Make your next deposit go even further, as we are giving you a 50% Bonus up to $250 with each poker reload when you use promo code KOPOKER250. This extra gift will be released in $10 increments over the course of play and serves as a healthy little surprise every time you take a look at your bankroll.
$750K Tournament Series  We have committed to over $750,000 in total prize money where players will have access to daily events that run all the way through our $150K Main Event. Adding to the excitement, most of our buildup tournaments will run as Knockout Events where you will get cold, hard cash in your pockets every time you bounce another player from contention. 
March Blackjack Tournament Series With $225,000 in total prize money available, this three-round tournament series brings the fast paced excitement over to the card tables. Round 1: 50K Prize Pool, running from Thursday March 19th to Sunday March 22nd. Round 2: 75K Prize Pool, running from Thursday March 26th to Sunday March 29th.Round 3: 100K Prize Pool, running from Thursday April 2nd to Sunday April 5th.

Sports Gambling Podcast: Exploiting Splits

Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits. 

Listen to the full podcast here

What are splits?

  • How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy 
  • Most common usage is home/away stats

Sharp versus square usage 

  • Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
    • False, such stats rarely hold up
  • Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage 
    • Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
    • “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is

Why do anti-splits do so well?

  • Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
  • Splits regress to the mean
  • SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
  • Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
    • Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”

Conclusion

  • Don’t outsmart yourself
  • Think outside the box
    • Zig while square zag
  • If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell

Why Are Computer Programs the Ultimate Betting Sports Weapon?

Show notes from the top sports betting podcast on earth. Joe’s Duffy’s podcast traces roots back to 1980 on the scorephones.  

Eliminates Biases

Most love favorites, some dogs; over/under

Road favorites sucker plays in NFL, yet very good NBA

Underdogs, especially big ones, generally good bet; but not college football

Facts first

Situations where I’ve gone with big favorites in MLB, which I hate

Takes advantage of biases!

Thousands of Man Hours; Never Miss

Computer software stores the system and tells you when it applies

Old days with unranked favorites to ranked teams

So many of the best opportunities are small college football totals

Don’t let coronavirus slow down your winnings. Still ways to win! Bovada has Black Diamond poker tournament!

MYBookie is the place to bet the ponies!

5 Dimes has CoronaBonus to use with Casinos, Live Dealer, Mini Games, Lottery and even the Poker room. 15 percent cash reward!

Jeopardy Betting Takes Off During Coronavirus Lockdown

Super sportsbook Bovada has casino games, live dealers, and poker going on to keep us occupied during the coronavirus lockdown. In front of the TV watching Jeopardy? You can get on that too at Bovada

Jeopardy! March 23 – How Many Daily Doubles Will Be Correctly Answered? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • 2 EVEN 
  • 3 +225 
  • 1 +250 
  • 0 +1500 

Jeopardy! March 23 – What Percentage Of Player’s Balance Will Be Risked On The First Daily Double? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Over 77.5%-130 
  • Under 77.5%EVEN 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Who Will Win Tonight’s Episode? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Michonne (Left Contestant)+135 
  • Far Right Contestant+175 
  • Middle Contestant+175 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will All Three Competitors Advance To Final Jeopardy! ? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Yes-1400 
  • No+650 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will All Three Competitors Answer Final Jeopardy! Correctly? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • No-500 
  • Yes+300 

If all three do not advance to Final Jeopardy! then No is the winner

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will Someone Forget To Answer In The Form Of A Question? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • No-700 
  • Yes+400 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Winning Competitor’s Balance 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Over $18,000-115 
  • Under $18,000-115

Contrarian Sports Betting Secrets Revealed

The pre-show notes about the effectiveness of contrarian betting. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com reveals why this handicapping tool is making a comeback and how to exploit it. Beat sportsbooks like MyBookie with this intel.

What is Contrarian Betting

  • Betting against the public
  • Uses basic rule of oddsmaking: odds not a prediction, but to get balanced action
  • Lines shaded to public biases
  • Betting percentages reveal public biases

How to Calculate Contrarian Betting

  • Most effected based on percentage of bets not money
    • $5 bet counts same as $5,000
  • Smaller bettors best for contrarian info
  • Public loves favorites and overs
    • Sliding scale to consider that
  • 55 percent on 6.5-point dog roughly equal to 70 percent on 6.5-point favorite

Public Sources of Contrarian Betting

Making Big Comeback

  • Legalization means media sites large and small making picks
  • Hire entry level writers who know nothing about gambling and post quintessential square plays
    • Tailed by gamblers
    • More neophyte gamblers than ever 

Conclusion 

  • Best as corroborating but gaining traction as percentage of tenderfoot cappers increase
  • Get Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com exploiting all proven weapons

Western Sydney Wanderers vs. Sydney FC Odds

Soccer Odds: Western Sydney Wanderers vs. Sydney FC The reigning champions of Australian men’s soccer will be in action this Saturday when Sydney FC (15 wins, two losses, two draws) head to Bankwest Stadium to play Western Sydney Wanderers (seven wins, nine losses, four draws) in A-League action. Coverage is available on ESPN+ beginning at 4:30 AM ET. 

At press time, Sydney FC are +105 favorites on the three-way moneyline, with Wanderers at +240 and the draw pegged at +255. Bet on soccer at Bodog and get a free 50% bonus. In the face of the coronavirus epidemic, the A-League is taking unprecedented measures to finish out their regular season, which began in October. Reports say they will play virtually all their remaining matches at empty stadiums in Sydney and Melbourne. However, Wednesday’s match between Sydney FC and Wellington Phoenix FC was postponed when the Phoenix players were put under two weeks of isolation. Virus concerns aside, it’s been another strong season for the defending champs. Sydney FC are first on the A-League table after 19 of their 26 matches, 10 points clear of second-place Melbourne City FC. 

Wanderers are another 12 points back in eighth place; the top six teams in this 11-team league would normally qualify for the playoffs, although this year’s format may have to change. Get your soccer odds at Bovada today.

Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas at Bovada Sportsbook, 100% Bonus

UFC Odds from Bovada: Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas at Barclays Center With most of the major league team sports cancelled due to COIVID-19, UFC is now in the sports betting spotlight. 

A showdown between the No. 1 women’s strawweight fighter Jessica Andrade (20-7) and No. 2 Rose Namajunas (8-4) will serve as the co-main main event at UFC 249 on Saturday, April 18. Andrade will be looking to bounce back after her latest bout; her brief stint as the women’s strawweight champion came to an end against Weili “Magnum” Zhang in a fight that went the distance.

Bet on MMA at Bovada and get a free 100% bonus. This fight will essentially be a rematch of UFC 237 when Andrade beat Namajunas for the belt. Namajunas entered that event on a three-fight winning streak, including two victories over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217 and 223. Standing three inches taller with nearly a three-inch reach advantage over Andrade, Namajunas is a —170 favorite to return to the win column and deliver Andrade back-to-back losses. 

Tank For Trevor? Odds on Pats Starting QB for 2021, Yes 2021 Opening Day

The oddsmakers are really digging deep with their latest set of Patriots-related props at SportsBetting

Not only have they projected who will be New England’s quarterback this coming season, but there’s a list for the 2021 campaign as well. 

This was likely prompted by the chatter that the Patriots will try to tank in order to draft Trevor Lawrence after he finishes his college career. 

There are some interesting names on it, particularly at the top where Deshaun Watson sits. The Texans just traded away DeAndre Hopkins for a bag of balls, which has drawn mass criticism for the head coach and the GM-less organization. 

A Bill Belichick-Deshaun Watson marriage could set the stage for another dynasty.

Lawrence and other notable college QBs are on the list, a few NFL free agents to be and Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, albeit with long odds. 

Patriots starting quarterback in Week 1 of 2021 regular season

Deshaun Watson +300

Trevor Lawrence +500

Jarrett Stidham +500

Kyle Trask +700

Dak Prescott +900

Jacoby Brissett +1100

Andy Dalton +1200

Derek Carr +1200

Taysom Hill +1200

Cam Newton +1200

Matthew Stafford +1200

Mac Jones +1600

Ryan Fitzpatrick +2000

Sam Ehlinger +2500

JT Daniels +3300

Aaron Rodgers +5000

Patrick Mahomes +10000

In other NFL odds, Nick Foles is projected to beat out Mitchell Trubisky for the starting job in Chicago. 

Bears starting quarterback in Week 1 of 2020 reg. Season

Mitchell Trubisky +110

Nick Foles -150

And here are updated free agent/trade odds for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Melvin Gordon. 

Cam Newton team in Week 1 of 2020 regular season

Washington Redskins +150

New England Patriots +200

Miami Dolphins +250

Jacksonville Jaguars +900

Denver Broncos +1600

Las Vegas Raiders +1600

Pittsburgh Steelers +2800

Cincinnati Bengals +4000

Andy Dalton team in Week 1 of 2020 regular season

Miami Dolphins +175

Washington Redskins +225

New England Patriots +600

Carolina Panthers +900

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +900

Dallas Cowboys +1000

Los Angeles Chargers +1200

Jacksonville Jaguars +1600

New Orleans Saints +1600

Jameis Winston team in Week 1 of 2020 regular season

Miami Dolphins +100

Washington Redskins +300

Los Angeles Chargers +700

New England Patriots +700

Jacksonville Jaguars +800

New Orleans Saints +1400

Dallas Cowboys +2000

Melvin Gordon team in Week 1 of 2020 regular season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +250

Miami Dolphins +300

Atlanta Falcons +350

Arizona Cardinals +800

Indianapolis Colts +900

Philadelphia Eagles +900

Denver Broncos +1000

Pittsburgh Steelers +1000

Chicago Bears +1400

Get the best picks in the world led by Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO at OffshoreInsiders.com