Tag Archives: betting odds

Must-See Betting Preview of Patriots vs. Jets Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots at New York Jets Betting Preview For Thursday Night Football Picks

Game Details:

  • Line: Jets -6, Over/Under 38.5 at MYBookie  
  • Moneyline: Jets -260, Patriots +230
  • Opening Line: Jets -7.5, O/U 42; Moneyline: Jets -360
  • Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
  • Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie

The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.

Sharp Money on Jets?

The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.

Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs

For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.

Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season

Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The “honeymoon period” under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.

Key Computer Program Predictions:

  • BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
  • Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
  • Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
  • BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
  • StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15

These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.

Trends to Watch:

  • Patriots’ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
  • Robert Saleh’s September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
  • Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
    • Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
    • Jets: Saleh’s teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
    • Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.

Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI

The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.

Betting Systems Favor the Patriots

Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:

  • Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
  • Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.

Player Prop Bets to Target:

  1. Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
    • Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
  2. Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
    • This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson won’t see many targets in the passing game.
  3. Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
    • The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
  4. Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
    • The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
  5. Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
    • Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgers’ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.

Injury Report:

  • Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley can’t play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
  • Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New England’s defense.

Follow us on Twitter and all socials @OffshoreInsider

Conclusion:

This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.

💰💰💰Top NFL expert pick is from Joe Duffy’s Picks:

💣 Absolute bombshell! Undefeated with named plays in NFLX, CFB, and NFL this season!

🏈 AFC Game of the Year drops Thursday night Patriots vs. Jets!

🔒 Named plays from Joe Duffy are as close to a true lock as it gets in sports!

🏈 Thursday Night Football Total

All at OffshoreInsiders.com

Week 2 NFL, Major Shifts From Lookahead Lines

Each Thursday or Friday, Betonline  releases their look-ahead lines for the following week’s NFL matchups. These lines offer bettors an early glimpse into the spreads, but they are only available for a limited time. They are taken down on Sunday before the games kick off, only to be re-opened once the day’s action concludes.

Injuries and other major developments over the weekend can lead to significant line movements, as demonstrated this week with Jordan Love’s injury. When there’s a major shift between the look-ahead lines and the new lines, these movements are highlighted below. NFL Week 2 spreads are subject to further change at Betonline  

NFL Week 2 Lines:

Thursday, September 12, 2024

  • Bills at Dolphins (-1½)

Sunday, September 15, 2024

  • Saints at Cowboys (-6½)
  • Buccaneers at Lions (-6)
  • Colts (-3) at Packers
    Note: The line opened with the Packers as -4 favorites, but shifted significantly after Jordan Love’s injury.
  • Jets (-4) at Titans
  • 49ers (-5) at Vikings
    Note: Line opened at 49ers -6½.
  • Seahawks (-3½) at Patriots
  • Giants at Commanders (-3)
  • Chargers (-4½) at Panthers
  • Browns at Jaguars (-3)
  • Raiders at Ravens (-8½)
  • Rams (-2½) at Cardinals
  • Steelers (-3) at Broncos
  • Bengals at Chiefs (-6)
    Note: Line opened at Chiefs -4.
  • Bears at Texans (-6½)
    Note: Line opened at Texans -3½.

Monday, September 16, 2024

  • Falcons at Eagles (-6)
    Note: Line opened at Eagles -4.

These lines reflect the latest updates from Betonline as of this writing. Be sure to check back frequently for adjustments, as they can shift based on news, injuries, and public betting patterns.

MyBookieDouble deposit up to $1,000 +$100K
BovadaGreat online casino with 3K welcome bonus!
GT Bets100% bonus on initial deposit, 50% on 2nd
Bet Now100% sign up bonus
BetOnlineHome of the opening line, has a $1,000 welcome bonus
Sports Betting #1 rated sportsbook for live betting. 1K signup bonus

Week 0 College Football Betting Capsules

For Week 0 of the 2024 college football season, here are some key betting odds and insights from OffshoreInsiders.com

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech:

Spread: Florida State is favored by 11.5 to 13 points, depending on the sportsbook. MyBookie review

Total (Over/Under): The total points for this game is set between 52.5 and 56 points.

Moneyline: Florida State is around -490, while Georgia Tech is +365 to +380.

Analysis: This game, played in Dublin, Ireland, is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair. Florida State is heavily favored due to their strong season last year, while Georgia Tech’s potent rushing attack could help them keep it closer than expected.

SMU vs. Nevada:

Spread: SMU is a 21.5 to 27.5-point favorite.

Total (Over/Under): The total is around 56.5 to 57 points. Bovada  

Moneyline: SMU is a massive -1800 favorite, with Nevada as a +920 underdog.

Analysis: SMU is expected to dominate, but Nevada has struggled to cover the spread at home, making SMU a strong pick to cover in college football ATS bet.

Delaware State vs. Hawaii:

Spread: Hawaii is favored by 37.5 to 38 points.

Total (Over/Under): The total is around 55.5 points. 

Analysis: This game is expected to be heavily one-sided, with Hawaii likely to cover due to their powerful passing game against a weaker Delaware State team.

Joe Duffy is the top college football handicapper in the world. Get his bets at OffshoreInsiders.com

College football handicapper

Advanced News and Notes For Preseason NFL Betting

NFL  Information
will be constantly updated!

Thursday, August 10,
2006

 

Browns-Eagles

Tribune Chronicle

Browns coach Crennel doesn’t
plan to play starting quarterback Charlie Frye too long against the Eagles.
Frye is expected to play most of the first quarter before taking a seat on the
bench.

Philly News

The Eagles might have to add a running back before
Thursday’s preseason game at home against the Browns, Reid agreed. He said Ryan
Moats (knee) might be a week away from returning. Correll Buckhalter, trying to
come back from three knee surgeries in 4 years, has seen only limited contact
work in camp and probably isn’t ready to play in a game. Right now, behind
Brian Westbrook, the Birds have Reno Mahe and
fullback Thomas Tapeh, who can move over in a pinch.
That’s not a comfortable situation.

Colts-Rams

Indianapolis Tribune Star

“It’ll be, I think, a good test for us. We have some
defensive guys that aren’t going to play. But that means the younger guys are
going to have to step up. But I’m anxious to see them in those game
conditions,” Colts Coach Tony Dungy said Monday. “Our offense is pretty much
hitting at full strength. And I feel like we’ve got a lot of stuff in and
rolling pretty good. Defensively we’ll just have to see how the young guys do,
but I think we’ll be ready to play well.” Dungy expects the first-team offense
to see limited action at the beginning of the game. The first-team defense may
get a little longer look, though. “Probably about 15 plays,” Dungy said of the
amount of time he expects the Colts’ first-team offense to be in the game.
“Defensively, I’m not sure how we’ll go. We don’t have a lot of substitutes, so
our guys are probably gonna go a little bit more.”
Dominic Rhodes will start the game at running back and is also expected to get
an extended look. Backup quarterback Jim Sorgi, who
has been bothered by a sore right shoulder since late May, should be able to
play against the Rams. Sorgi has been limited to just
one practice per day by team medical personnel. He showed no ill-effects from
the injury, however, in Saturday’s controlled scrimmage and was able to go
through a full workout on Monday morning.

Indy Star

Quarterback Peyton Manning and the No. 1 offense are
expected to be on the field for approximately 15 plays against the Rams.
Veteran Dominic Rhodes likely will start at tailback, but rookie Joseph Addai will shoulder a heavy workload with the No. 1 and No.
2 units. The defense probably will be short-handed. Among the players expected
to miss the game are safeties Bob Sanders (shoulder) and Mike Doss (calf) and
tackles Corey Simon (knee) and Montae Reagor (knee).

 

Keep our information free by using one or more of our APPROVED sportsbooks,
casinos and poker room.
  We’ve
compiled a perfect
combination of sportsbooks
for your line shopping including sharp and slower lines, low juice, free ½
points and more.  Most importantly, all
have been vetted and approved.  Also
remember the objective rundown of
who is hot and who has the big plays
among the nation’s elite sports
services is DAILY on the Handicappers
Sampler.

Friday, August 11,
2006

 

Jets-Buccaneers

Orlando Sentinel

The Bucs open the pre- season Friday night against the New
York Jets at Ray mond James Stadium. They’ll spend a
little time during practice this week reviewing the opposition, but Week 1 of
the preseason will be more about getting looks at young players. Rookie draft
choices like OG Davin
Joseph, Trueblood and QB Bruce Gradkowski
can expect a nice share of reps in their pro debuts.

Tampa Bay
Online

Bucs QB Chris
Simms
is expected to start Friday night’s game and play a couple of
series.

Our advanced news and notes are brought to you by the
Greek Sportsbook as they release lines before anyone else. Click here to sign up now.
Welcome Greek to the JoeDuffy.net family of endorsed books
Get a 21
percent bonus on your first deposit.  

Broncos-Lions

Denver Post

In a stunning development, Broncos undrafted
rookie free agent Mike Bell has catapulted into the starting lineup in Monday
morning’s practice. Bell has
leapfrogged Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell. Bell
remains the No. 2 back. Dayne has fallen from No. 1
to No. 3. Bell will start against Detroit
in the preseason opener Friday. Meanwhile, rookie QB Jay Cutler has replaced Bradlee Van Pelt as the No. 2 quarterback. Shanahan said
Cutler will come in after Jake Plummer’s start Friday against the Lions.

Detroit Free Press

Lions running back depth: Even
though he’s healthy and slimmed down, running back Artose
Pinner likely won’t be in a Lions jersey when the
regular season begins. Pinner, the Lions’ fourth-round
pick in 2003, faces an uphill climb in making the roster this season. Kevin
Jones is the established starter. Arlen Harris played for offensive coordinator
Mike Martz in St. Louis. Rookie
Brian Calhoun has had a good camp, and it’s highly unlikely the Lions would cut
a third-round pick. Plus, Shawn Bryson, who will likely back
up starting fullback Cory Schlesinger, can play running back if needed.

Patriots-Falcons

Macon Telegraph

Tight end Alge Crumpler would be surprised if coach
Jim Mora told him to wear a uniform when the Atlanta Falcons open the preseason
against the New England Patriots on Friday night. Without Crumpler,
Dwayne Blakley probably would take most of the snaps
with the first-team offense. Blakley, at 6-foot-4, is
a visible target for quarterback Michael Vick, but starting skill players
rarely play more than the first two or three series in the first preseason
game.

Providence Journal

Belichick said this week will be a mixed week in that the
team will spend part of its time continuing work it needs to do for the regular
season, but also mix in some preparation specifically for the preseason opener
at Atlanta Friday. “The Atlanta
game is an interesting game for us because it will give us a look at a lot of
things we haven’t seen that much from ourselves,” he said. The Falcons play
one-gap defense, do a lot of zone blitzing, run the stretch play offensively,
have a mobile quarterback and do a lot of bootlegs, none of which are featured
with the Patriots.

Bears-49ers

Suburban Chicago News

At the Bears’ current rate of attrition, just fielding a
team for Friday’s preseason opener in San Francisco
might be a bigger challenge for them than playing the game. Wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad and linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer
on Monday joined the growing list of injured, although neither injury is
expected to be serious. Running back remains the biggest worry, with results
due today on the MRI Cedric Benson received for a
shoulder sprain he suffered in practice Friday. Meanwhile, the pulled hamstring
running back Thomas Jones suffered while taking a physical prior to the first
practice could finally be improving. Jones hasn’t practiced yet and a return
date remains uncertain, but finally at Monday’s practice he did something on
the sidelines besides stand. “I can’t say the second preseason (game) or when
he will be back,” Smith said. “I just know that you probably saw him doing some
running earlier here today and that’s a good sign. Besides the backfield, the
Bears have been particularly hard hit at wide receiver and defensive tackle. At
receiver, they were down to their third and fourth receivers Monday because of
Muhammad’s absence and Bernard Berrian is still
nursing a hip flexor strain.

Get the Universal Pass: You can now purchase TOTAL ACCESS
to the top three sites on the Net, the Bet
It Trinity
Stevie’s
Vincent’s Knockout Picks, top
sports service plays at Alliance
Handicapping
, and the world’s greatest sports service God’s Picks for more than 50 percent off
the daily price.  You get access to all
three. Buy here or at
any of the Bet It Trinity sites.

Saturday, August 12,
2006

Steelers-Cardinals

Beaver County
Times

Still no word on Ben Roethlisberger’s
chances of playing in the preseason opener.
But it looks more and more
like two other Pittsburgh Steelers stars won’t play. Joey Porter, a Pro Bowl
linebacker, definitely won’t play Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals. He’s
yet to take part in a training camp practice because of a knee injury that
needed off-season surgery. Hines Ward, a Pro Bowl wide receiver and MVP of
Super Bowl XL, probably won’t play either. On Monday, Ward missed his second
straight day of practice with a tender hamstring.

Verdein Independent

Now with healthy bodies reporting to training camp along
with a couple new faces, including a new defensive line coach, the Cardinals
are looking better than ever and feeling energized for the new season. The only
snag so far is the broken hand of King, who will sit out the next four to six
weeks while he recovers. The new defensive line coach is Larry Brooks, who
enters his 21st season as an NFL assistant coach and his first with
the Cardinals. Brooks worked the past 12 seasons as a defensive line coach
including the previous two seasons with the Detroit Lions. The offensive line
was really the Cardinals weak spot last year. This year’s changes which include
a new offensive line coach, the Cardinals are looking to up their performance
and protection of first-string quarterback Kurt Warner, who took a beating last
year and ended up on the injured list. Steve Loney
takes over as offensive line coach for the Cardinals. The Cardinals still look
very strong in their passing game with the return of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, who are prepped to
have another stellar season. Both wide-receivers caught over 100 passes last
year for over 1400 yards apiece. With the new addition of Loney,
the offensive line looks to be whipping into shape so that they can have more
of a running game, which is the goal of Cardinals’ third-year head coach Dennis
Green.

Jaguars-Dolphins

Boston Globe

Quarterback Daunte Culpepper has progressed so well in his recovery
from knee surgery that he could play in the Miami Dolphins’ exhibition opener
Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Cowboys-Seahawks

Boston Globe

Terrell Owens said
yesterday that his nagging hamstring injury likely will keep him out of the
Dallas Cowboys’ exhibition opener Saturday night in Seattle.

Chiefs-Texans

Wichita Eagle

When the Chiefs failed one of their first offensive tests
of training camp Tuesday,
coach Herm Edwards—that famed defender of the defense—wasn’t happy about it. The
Chiefs couldn’t generate a first down when running the so-called four-minute
offense, a term for the mode used when a team is leading late in a game and
wants to control the ball and run out the clock. In what was an even bigger
crime to Edwards, they stopped the clock by throwing an incomplete pass on
third down. The situation was yet another sign of the transition the Chiefs
face as they move from the continual attack mode of the Dick Vermeil-Al Saunders
era to the conservative, ball-control philosophy favored by Edwards. The Chiefs
were using mostly backups at the time. Green, Gonzalez, fullback Ronnie Cruz
and guards Will Shields and Brian Waters were either sitting out the morning
practice or injured. The series ended when Casey Printers threw a wild,
incomplete pass on third down and eight after
two
unsuccessful running plays.That the
Chiefs used backups mattered little to Edwards.”The
backups will have to play Saturday,” Edwards said, referring to the preseason
opener against the Texans in Houston.
“I’m not going to change the game plan because they’re going in there, and I’m
not going to say, ‘Now we’ve got to throw passes because we’ve got a new left
tackle or a new guard.’ Are you kidding me?

Bellview News Democrat

Jonathan Quinn might start demanding the Kansas City
Chiefs bring him in for all of training camp. The journeyman quarterback’s name
was among those tossed around by coach Herman Edwards
on Wednesday, as injuries force the Chiefs to go searching for a last-minute
signal-caller for the second straight year. Backup Damon Huard
did not practice during Wednesday’s morning session after spraining an ankle,
and third-round draft pick Brodie Croyle
has been practicing only in running drills while he works his way back from a
shoulder injury. That leaves Trent Green and Casey Printers – who missed
Tuesday afternoon’s practice after taking a hit in the morning – healthy enough
to take snaps in Saturday’s exhibition game against the Houston Texans.