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Must-See Betting Preview of Patriots vs. Jets Thursday Night Football

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New England Patriots at New York Jets Betting Preview For Thursday Night Football Picks

Game Details:

  • Line: Jets -6, Over/Under 38.5 at MYBookie  
  • Moneyline: Jets -260, Patriots +230
  • Opening Line: Jets -7.5, O/U 42; Moneyline: Jets -360
  • Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
  • Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie

The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.

Sharp Money on Jets?

The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.

Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs

For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.

Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season

Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The “honeymoon period” under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.

Key Computer Program Predictions:

  • BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
  • Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
  • Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
  • BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
  • StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15

These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.

Trends to Watch:

  • Patriots’ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
  • Robert Saleh’s September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
  • Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
    • Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
    • Jets: Saleh’s teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
    • Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.

Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI

The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.

Betting Systems Favor the Patriots

Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:

  • Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
  • Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.

Player Prop Bets to Target:

  1. Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
    • Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
  2. Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
    • This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson won’t see many targets in the passing game.
  3. Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
    • The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
  4. Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
    • The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
  5. Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
    • Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgers’ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.

Injury Report:

  • Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley can’t play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
  • Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New England’s defense.

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Conclusion:

This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.

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🏈 Thursday Night Football Total

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Week 2 College Football Betting Odds, Breakdowns Released

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Week 2 of the 2024 college football season brings an array of intriguing matchups that are sure to capture the attention of bettors. As always, lines for games involving FBS teams versus FCS opponents will typically emerge later in the week, but several key games already have odds set. Here’s a look at the lines and some early thoughts on what to watch for from OffshoreInsiders.com

Friday, September 6, 2024

  • BYU at SMU (-10½): SMU is favored by double digits at home against BYU. This matchup could hinge on how well SMU’s explosive offense performs against a traditionally tough BYU defense.
  • Duke at Northwestern (-3): A narrow line here reflects the expected competitiveness of this game. Northwestern, playing at home, gets the slight edge, but Duke’s rising program under Coach Mike Elko could present a serious challenge.

Saturday, September 7, 2024

  • Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse: Georgia Tech is a slight road favorite against Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets’ improvement under Coach Brent Key is evident, but the Carrier Dome is always a tough venue for visiting teams. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
  • Kansas State (-10) at Tulane: Kansas State is favored by ten points in what could be a tricky road game against Tulane. The Green Wave have been known to pull off upsets, so this line might see movement as the week progresses.
  • Bowling Green at Penn State (-33): Penn State is heavily favored by 33 points against Bowling Green. This should be a straightforward win for the Nittany Lions, but the spread could test the resolve of bettors.
  • Troy at Memphis (-17): Memphis is expected to cover a 17-point spread at home against Troy. Memphis’ high-powered offense should give them the edge, but Troy’s defense could keep it closer than expected.
  • Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-1): A virtual toss-up with Cincinnati favored by just a single point. This could be one of the closest and most exciting games of the week.
  • Akron at Rutgers (-23): Rutgers is favored to win comfortably at home against Akron. The Scarlet Knights will look to dominate early and cover the sizable spread.
  • Army at Florida Atlantic (-2½): Florida Atlantic is a slight favorite at home against Army, but the Black Knights’ triple-option offense could present challenges for FAU’s defense.
  • Texas (-7) at Michigan: This line opened with Texas as a 3-point favorite, but it’s already moved to -7. The Longhorns will be looking to prove themselves against a Michigan team that is always tough at home.
  • Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-7½): Oklahoma State is favored at home by just over a touchdown. Arkansas, however, has the potential to make this a close contest.
  • California at Auburn (-14): Auburn is a two-touchdown favorite against Cal. The Tigers’ SEC pedigree should see them through, but Cal’s defense could keep the margin in check.
  • Jacksonville State at Louisville (-28): Louisville is expected to win big against Jacksonville State. A 28-point spread reflects the disparity between these programs.
  • Temple at Navy (-13): Navy is a 13-point favorite at home against Temple. The Midshipmen’s option offense is tough to prepare for, which could make it difficult for Temple to stay within the spread.
  • Baylor at Utah (-15): Utah is favored by 15 points against Baylor in a matchup that could see defensive battles on both sides. Utah’s home-field advantage is significant in this one.
  • South Carolina at Kentucky (-9½): Kentucky is favored at home by just under ten points. South Carolina’s offense will need to step up to stay in this game.
  • Charlotte at North Carolina (-21½): North Carolina is heavily favored against Charlotte, with a spread of 21½ points. The Tar Heels’ potent offense should be too much for Charlotte to handle.
  • Northern Illinois at Notre Dame (-29½): Notre Dame is a near 30-point favorite at home against Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish will aim to dominate early and put this game out of reach.
  • Eastern Michigan at Washington (-25): Washington is expected to cruise past Eastern Michigan with a 25-point spread in their favor.
  • Massachusetts at Toledo (-19½): Toledo is favored by nearly three touchdowns against UMass. The Rockets should be able to cover, but UMass could fight to keep it closer.
  • Iowa State at Iowa (-3): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy is expected to be close, with Iowa favored by a field goal. This rivalry game often comes down to the wire.
  • Michigan State at Maryland (-10): Maryland is favored by ten points at home against Michigan State. The Terrapins’ offense will be key to covering this spread.
  • UTSA at Texas State (-2½): Texas State is a slight favorite at home against UTSA. This line reflects the anticipated tight nature of the contest.
  • Middle Tennessee State at Mississippi (-41½): Ole Miss is a massive 41½-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State. The Rebels should win comfortably, but covering this large spread could be a challenge.
  • Marshall at Virginia Tech (-17): Virginia Tech is favored by 17 points at home against Marshall. The Hokies’ defense will need to shine to cover this spread.
  • Central Michigan (-4) at Florida International: Central Michigan is a 4-point favorite on the road. This line suggests a closer game than one might expect.
  • East Carolina (-1) at Old Dominion: East Carolina is barely favored by a single point in what is expected to be a closely contested game.
  • South Alabama (-1½) at Ohio: South Alabama is slightly favored on the road, indicating a potential nail-biter in Ohio.
  • Sam Houston St at Central Florida (-23½): UCF is favored by more than three touchdowns against Sam Houston State. The Knights should cover, but Sam Houston State’s defense could keep it interesting.
  • South Florida at Alabama (-31): Alabama is heavily favored by 31 points at home against South Florida. The Crimson Tide should have no trouble, but the spread is sizable.
  • Buffalo at Missouri (-34): Missouri is a 34-point favorite at home against Buffalo. This line reflects the Tigers’ dominance.
  • Virginia at Wake Forest (-2): Wake Forest is a slight favorite in this ACC matchup, suggesting a potentially close contest.
  • Kansas (-5½) at Illinois: Kansas is favored by less than a touchdown on the road. The Jayhawks will need to perform well to cover this spread.
  • Georgia Southern (-2½) at Nevada: Georgia Southern is a narrow favorite on the road against Nevada. This could be a tough game to call.
  • San Jose State at Air Force (-6½): Air Force is favored by just under a touchdown at home against San Jose State. The Falcons’ unique offense will be key.
  • UAB (-12) at UL Monroe: UAB is a 12-point favorite on the road, which indicates confidence in their ability to handle UL Monroe.
  • Tulsa at Arkansas State (-7): Arkansas State is favored by a touchdown at home. This game could be closer than the line suggests.
  • UL Lafayette (-14½) at Kennesaw State: UL Lafayette is favored by two touchdowns plus a half-point against Kennesaw State. This line shows confidence in the Ragin’ Cajuns.
  • Western Michigan at Ohio State (-39): Ohio State is a 39-point favorite against Western Michigan. The Buckeyes should dominate, but covering nearly 40 points is a tall order.
  • Colorado at Nebraska (-7½): Nebraska is favored by more than a touchdown at home against Colorado. This rivalry game could be closer than the spread indicates.
  • Tennessee (-7½) at NC State: Tennessee is a slight favorite on a neutral field in Charlotte. This game has potential to be one of the weekend’s best matchups.
  • Houston at Oklahoma (-29½): Oklahoma is nearly a 30-point favorite at home against Houston. The Sooners should win big, but the spread is large.
  • Appalachian State at Clemson (-17): Clemson is favored by 17 points at home against Appalachian State. The Tigers should cover, but App State is known for putting up a fight.
  • Boise State at Oregon (-18): Oregon is an 18-point favorite at home against Boise State. The Ducks’ offense will be key to covering this spread.
  • Texas Tech at Washington State (-1): Washington State is favored by just a single point in what is expected to be a close game against Texas Tech.
  • Liberty (-22) at New Mexico State: Liberty is favored by 22 points on the road. The Flames should cover, but New Mexico State’s home field could factor in.
  • Oregon State (-4) at San Diego State: Oregon State is favored by 4 points on the road. The Beavers will need to play well to cover this spread.
  • Mississippi State at Arizona State (-4): Arizona State is favored by 4 points at home against Mississippi State. This could be one of the tighter games of the weekend.
  • Utah State at USC (-28): USC is favored by 28 points at home against Utah State. The Trojans should cover, but a blowout isn’t guaranteed.

Final Thoughts

As the week progresses, expect these lines to move as bettors weigh in with their wagers. Factors like injuries, weather conditions, and public perception will play a significant role in how these lines shift.

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