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Week 2 NFL Betting; Tailgate Party with Free Side ATS, Player Prop Trends, Public Betting Info

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Here is the Sunday NFL Tailgate Party: everything gamblers need to know to make a bloody fortune in week 2 NFL betting!

Free:

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So many super sharp systems apply here. Combo of going with a team with the much worse delta points allowed and a road underdog that has not overachieved is a sensational 36-6 ATS for about a 60 percent ROI. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. 

The master angle about dogs that have not overachieved based on wins compared to how often they have been a favorite is a stunning 1229-1027-63 for +99.30 units. It hits 63.3 percent in first three weeks, so again overestimating short-term results is massive early season. 

Week 2 is all about square bettors panicking and oddsmakers knowing it. A big bounce back angle about going with teams that loss as a favorite in opening week, under specific situations that apply in this game are 53-29-2 for 23.4 ROI. 

Of our models, simulators, power ratings, BetQL, which tends to shade towards chalk, has this as only a one-point game and a solid bet on the Browns. 

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🏈 Biggest Public Bets for Week 2 NFL:

  • % of Bets: 🏴‍☠️ Tampa, 🐴 Denver, 🗽 NY Giants; 🏴‍☠️ Pittsburgh OVER, 🟦 Seattle OVER
  • % of Money: 🛩️ NY Jets, 🌉 San Francisco
  • Sharp Action: 🛩️ Houston, 🛩️ NY Jets, 🐆 Jacksonville, 🦅 Philadelphia; 🏴‍☠️ New England UNDER
  • Line Moves (Open/Current):
    • 🧀 Green Bay from -5 to +2.5 (Jordan Love injury)
    • 🐏 Rams -2 now +1
    • 🛩️ Houston -3.5 now -6.5
  • OU:
    • 🧀 Green Bay OVER 47 now 40.5 (Love injury)
    • 🐴 Denver 40.5 to 36.5


📊 Top Player Prop Betting Trends:

  • 🏈 Bryce Young: under 13-4 in his career with passing yards
  • 🏈 Daniel Jones: under 17-8 last 25 with passing yards
  • 🏈 Sam Darnold: under 11-3 passing completions
  • 🏈 Jacoby Brissett: over 13-4 passing completions
  • 🏈 Trevor Lawrence: under 36-17 in his career with passing TDs
  • 🏈 Daniel Jones: under 25-11 in his career with passing TDs
  • 🏈 Kirk Cousins: over 28-14 in his career with passing TDs
  • 🏈 Aaron Rodgers: under 21-8 in his career rushing yards
  • 🏈 Miles Sanders: under 25-11 in his career with receiving yards
  • 🏈 Christian Watson: under 17-5 in his career with receiving yards

Happy betting! 📈🏆

💰💰💰Top expert pick:  

💥 Sunday: 3 powerful Wise Guy bets 💡5 Majors 📈 3 player prop bets

🔥 Includes Patrick Mahomes prop!

🚨 Saturday NFL steam move is our strongest football contrarian play of the year to date! 💰

All at OffshoreInsiders.com from Joe Duffy, the top NFL handicapper in world history. 

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Sports Betting News

Delta Points Scored/Allowed a Major Part of Handicapping’s Holy Grail

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Breaking news: delta point margins are a handicapper’s lesser-known weapon, particularly when it comes to forecasting totals. And now the self-evident question, what are delta points? It’s the implied number of points a team will score and allow based on the point spread. Using rounded numbers for streamlining, let’s state a team is favorite by 10 points and the posted total is 30. This means the implied projected points scored by the favorite is 20 and implied points allowed would be 10.

If they scored 27 points, they’d have a plus-7 delta points scored. When applied as season-to-date averages, we can measure overachieving and underachieving offenses and defenses and yet again, use the oddsmakers wisdom against them.

Not shockingly—here we go again—teams regress to the mean. Heavily overachieving offenses are usually good wagers for an under, underachieving offenses a good antes for the over.

Of course, this is especially true when corroborated by both units on both teams or at least when equally compelling numbers aren’t conflicting.

Let’s talk college football for instance. Teams that have a delta points scored of seven or better go under 1083-913-48, a nice 54.3 percent. When their opponent also has a DPS of +6, it goes under nearly 60 percent at 192-131-9.

Sure enough, disappointing offenses incline to be good over plays. A team with a delta points scored of -14 or less goes over 161-135-5-5 for 54.4.

Underachieving defenses? Teams that allow an average of at least 9.5 points per game more than the oddsmakers expected go under 544-460-15. Great defenses…of course go over. Defenses allowing at least 12 fewer points per game than expected go over 243-205-8 for 54.2 percent.

This is another hypothesis that crosses sports. It should as it’s based on a primordial, but ingenious truth. Oddsmakers are not wrong often. That’s bad news for the square player. But delta points scored/allowed essentially disarms them. What the oddsmakers tell us can and will be used against them.

Want delta points and every other sharp edge to be on your side every sports season? Joe Duffy’s premium bets have been winning publicly since June 1, 1988 on the scorephones. Get them now at OffshoreInsiders.com, which is also home to vetted sportsbooks.