Tag Archives: football betting

NFL Betting Splits: Packers vs. Eagles – Analyzing Where the Smart Money Lies

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling NFL matchup. With Philadelphia currently favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 49 according to MYBookie, this game has already seen interesting movements in betting action. If you’re trying to find an edge in betting this game, examining the betting splits can offer valuable insights into where the sharp money is landing.

Opening Line Movement

The game opened with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total sitting at 49. These numbers have remained steady, but it’s important to look beyond the static odds and examine the betting activity for more context. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie

Betting Splits: Packers Popular, But Not with Big Money

As of now, 67% of all bets are on the Green Bay Packers, indicating that the public favors Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. However, just 32% of the money is backing the Packers, signaling a potential disconnect between public opinion and sharper betting activity.

When we see a high percentage of bets on one side but a lower percentage of money backing the same team, it’s often a sign that larger, more informed bets are coming in on the other side – in this case, the Eagles. Philadelphia, as the home favorite, may be the play of sharper bettors looking to capitalize on public overconfidence in Green Bay.

Over/Under: Public Loves the Over, Sharps Less Certain

On the total, 77% of tickets are on the OVER, yet just 55% of the money is following suit. This is another clear indicator that while casual bettors expect a high-scoring affair, larger wagers are more cautiously optimistic. The smaller percentage of money on the OVER suggests sharper bettors may anticipate a defensive battle or believe that the total line of 49 is a bit too high.

What the Experts Are Saying

💰💰💰 Top expert pick: Betting expert Joe Duffy is among the sharpest minds in NFL wagering, and he’s got a strong opinion on the side for this game. Duffy’s reputation for finding value where others don’t is unmatched, and he’s got his eyes not only on this NFL matchup but also on key college football plays this weekend.

For those looking to bet with confidence, Joe Duffy’s picks can be found at OffshoreInsiders.com, where his track record speaks for itself. From reading between the lines on betting splits to leveraging insider information, Duffy provides a comprehensive approach to maximizing your sports betting outcomes.

Final Thoughts

Betting splits give us insight into the minds of both public and professional bettors. In the Packers vs. Eagles matchup, the public is favoring Green Bay and the OVER, but the money percentages suggest the sharp play may be on Philadelphia and potentially the UNDER. Whether you’re tailing the sharps or following the public, make sure you have the right information to guide your betting decisions.

Football Handicapping

The Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Redskins open up
the NFL preseason in the Hall-of-Fame Game, but as expert football handicapper Mike Godsey of
GodsTips says, “It’s the opening of the regular season for sports bettors”.

OffshoreInsiders.com
will continue to update with more information up until kickoff, but we do have
early news and notes of great interest to the sports betting community.

Though it is a “neutral” game, there is little doubt that
the Redskins will have the partisan crowd. Several thousand faithful Redskin
fans will make the pilgrimage to Canton
as two of their all-time greats Art Monk and Darrell Green are being inducted
into the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame.

The current sportsbooks
odds see Washington as a
six-point favorite with a total of 31.5 or 32.
Totals players will want to note that Redskins head coach Jim Zorn said
that his defense is way ahead of the offense and that his offensive line will
take some time to gel.

Many bettors believe first year head coaches are good to
bet with. Jim Zorn will be coaching his first game as head man anywhere for the
Skins.

Zorn has made various comments that would lead one to
believe he is putting a priority on winning the game.

Indianapolis
will be without injured quarterback Peyton Manning and wide receiver Marvin
Harrison is questionable. “Even if Harrison plays, there
is no doubt (Colts head coach Tony) Dungy will be very cautious,” says Vegas
expert Cy McCormick, head of the online betting
syndicate MasterLockLine.com.

However, perennial backup quarterback Jim Sorgi is expected to get a lot of playing time including a
rare chance with the first-teamers.

Betting trends (all preseason) tell us that the Colts have
gone over 9-1 on grass since 1993.


Beating NFL Odds

Before burying the recently concluded NFL season, savvy
gamblers will want to sift through those decaying bones to determine if the
gridiron carcass left any clues that could be used to uncover a successful NFL
betting strategy when the 2008 campaign kicks off in September.

One angle that has clicked for several straight years again took the blue
ribbon in 2007: If you want to be an NFL betting winner, bet a winner. Simply,
teams that were straight up (SU) winners on the field also were highly
successful at the windows, against the spread (ATS).

In fact, of the 13 teams that posted regular season winning records, 12 of them
also had winning marks against the spread. The 13th team, the
Washington Redskins, was .500 ATS, meaning that no team with a straight up
winning record had a losing record against the spread. The overall pointspread
log for these 13 teams was 126-77-5, a
62.0 win percentage, a figure for which any NFL betting enthusiast would sell
his throwback jersey.

Yes, hindsight always is 20/20 but was it so difficult to predict that teams
such as the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Seahawks and Cowboys would have straight
up winning records? Some shrewd bettors even allowed the oddsmakers and
bookmakers to do their homework for them, relying on regular season over/under
win total propositions as the basis for their wagers. The above-mentioned teams
all had totals of 10 victories or more entering last season.

On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that had straight up losing records, only
one, the Buffalo Bills, had a winning mark against the spread. Maybe it was the
snow that was the great pointspread equalizer in Buffalo.

Those 15 teams were 92-141-7 against the spread, a cover percentage of .394,
meaning that those who wisely bet against those teams collected on more than 60
percent of their wagers.

Predictably enough, the four teams that finished with straight up .500 records
also were right around that mark against the spread.

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU WINNING RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

New England Patriots

16-0

10-6

Green Bay
Packers

13-3

12-3-1

Indianapolis
Colts

13-3

9-7

Dallas Cowboys

13-3

9-7

Jacksonville
Jaguars

11-5

11-5

San Diego
Chargers

11-5

11-5

Cleveland
Browns

10-6

12-4

New York
Giants

10-6

10-6

Seattle
Seahawks

10-6

9-6-1

Pittsburgh
Steelers

10-6

9-7

Tennessee
Titans

10-6

8-7-1

Tampa Bay
Buccaneers

9-7

9-7

Washington
Redskins

9-7

7-7-2

Total (13 teams)

145-63

126-77-5

 

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU LOSING RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

Miami Dolphins

1-15

5-9-2

St. Louis Rams

3-13

5-11

Oakland
Raiders

4-12

6-10

New York
Jets

4-12

6-9-1

Atlanta
Falcons

4-12

7-8-1

Kansas City
Chiefs

4-12

7-8-1

Baltimore
Ravens

5-11

3-13

San Francisco
49ers

5-11

5-11

New Orleans
Saints

7-9

6-10

Cincinnati

7-9

6-9-1

Detroit

7-9

6-9-1

Chicago

7-9

7-9

Carolina

7-9

8-8

Buffalo

7-9

10-6

Total (15 teams)

79-161

92-141-7

 

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU .500 RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

Houston Texans

8-8

8-8

Philadelphia
Eagles

8-8

8-8

Minnesota
Vikings

8-8

7-7-2

Arizona
Cardinals

8-8

9-7

Total (4 teams)

32-32

32-30-2

So, when it comes to NFL betting, if you want to be a winner, bet a winner.

This article was written on behalf of OffshoreInsiders.com
by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com.

 


Bet On Sports: Yards Per Points in Football Pointspread Betting

Each and every season all sports should be a learning
experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves,
evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations
in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football
season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail
about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was
the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that
was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by
points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided
by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the
ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not
waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful
defensive stands. However, conventional
thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient
teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one
would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was
and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements
I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy
and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go
over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets
more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net
yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing,
rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use
the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to
the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting
strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com,
but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or
underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which
have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected
by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards
per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the
worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by
maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual
production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by
not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated
they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable
than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats.
The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most
part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal
of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet)
the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest
upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially,
it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to
handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net
yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated
each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of
course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward
to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on
sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner,
note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr.
March and the Lord of the Dance.