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Free Picks, Betting Notes, Analysis, Pro Bettors Bullet Points Opening Week NFL 2018

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Sports betting headquarters OffshoreInsiders.com and DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts brings you very important and critical gambling info for week 1 of NFL betting. Included is a free pick from Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy.

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Titans vs. Dolphins

  • Dolphins WR DeVante Parker is doubtful
    • 57 catches last year
  • MarQueis Gray, very good blocking TD, is out for Miami
  • Titans WR Rishard Matthews will likely be on rep count, but will play
    • 53 receptions for 795 yards and 4 TDs
  • The Dolphins are 42-18 SU in their last 60 games at home in September.
  • In Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase’s only season together in 2016, the Dolphins went 6-1 SU in Tannehill home starts and averaged 27 points per game.
  • Marcus Mariota has a 69.1 QB rating on the road in 2017 with 11 interceptions and just five TD passes.
  • The Dolphins averaged 11.7 more points at home in 2017 than on the road.
  • The Titans are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 11-6-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins’ last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 48.09)
  • The Titans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Titans’ last 13 games on the road against the Dolphins.

Redskins vs. Cardinals

  • Skins starting RB Derrius Guice is out for year and FA Adrian Peterson gets start
  • The Redskins are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Cardinals.
  • The visiting team is 0-6 SU in the last six games in this matchup.
  • The Cardinals are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games in September.
  • The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Cardinals’ last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.75)
  • The Redskins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 1
  • Washington had a lot of preseason injuries, but come in healthy

Cowboys vs. Panthers

  • Panthers WR Curtis Samuel is out
    • Last year’s second round pick had 15 catches before season-ending injury in game 10
  • Carolina large public bet
  • The Cowboys are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
  • Dallas ranked 3rd in net yards per play on the road last season. Carolina ranked 30th in net yards per play at home.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Panthers.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 52.5)
  • The Panthers are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games. (Avg combined score: 36.33)
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road
  • Both teams banged up on OL

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Seahawks vs. Broncos

  • The Seahawks are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
  • The Broncos are 40-12 SU in their last 52 games at home.
  • The Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in September.
  • The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks’ last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
  • Seattle allowed the second-fewest points per game on the road last season (17.2)
  • Denver all-time top week 1 NFL teams at 38-19-1
  • High altitude not only helps them at home, but also get more prepared for regular season
  • Divisional games where wind in single-digits and a total of 44 or lower has gone over 615-499-21
  • Seattle QB Russell Wilson 14-5-1 underdogs covering by 6.8 points per game
  • Seattle’s defense in transition with Kam Chanellor and Richard Sherman

Free pick: SEATTLE OVER 42.5

Steelers vs. Browns

  • Steelers star RB Le’Veon Bell is doubtful as contract holdout
    • 1291 yards rushing last year
  • Browns NFL’s biggest upgrade at QB with Tyrod Taylor making start
  • Potential star WR Josh Gordon will be on a “pitch count” after missing a lot of camp time for personal and hamstring injuries
  • The Steelers are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Browns averaged a league-low 12.3 points per game at home last season.
  • The Browns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
  • The Browns are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games. (Avg losing margin: 10.53)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers’ last 11 games against the Browns. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Steelers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games on the road against the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Browns’ last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.69)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Steelers’ last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.63)
  • Winds are expected to exceed 10 mph
    • When total is 50 or less and wins speed is 10 mph or higher, games have gone under 403-324-8

https://youtu.be/1m5UF9odh-8

49ers vs. Vikings

  • Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is “back to normal” but had two preseason carries since season-ending injury
    • Look for Latavius Murray and Mike Boone to get extra carries early in season
  • Jimmy Garoppolo’s teams are averaging 28.3 points per game with him as starter
    • Faces No. 1 scoring defense from last year
  • San Francisco without suspended star LB Reuben Foster because of injury
  • Minnesota very thinned by injuries on OL
  • The Vikings are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
  • The Vikings allowed 13.8 points per game at home last season — second-best in the NFL.
  • The 49ers went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter last season, averaging 28.8 points per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last six games against the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 33.17)
  • The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 14.6)
  • The Vikings led the league in net yards per play at home last season.
  • The 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Vikings.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo went on a date with an adult film actress during the offseason.
  • The Vikings are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 13.83)
  • The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road
  • Vikings HC Mike Zimmer top covering coach in the NFL at 43-21 including 23-9 at home
  • Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins is 0-3 with a 71.7 passer rating and two touchdowns to five interceptions in Week 1. Only Jets backup Josh McCown (0-8) has a worse rating in season-openers among active quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts).

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Bengals vs. Colts

  • Colts QB Andrew Luck makes first regular season appearance since 2016
  • Colts RB Marlon Mack is questionable
    • 93 carries for 358 yards rushing last year, plus 225 yards receiving and a TD
  • Bengals star LB Vontaze Burfict is questionable
  • The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
  • The Colts ranked last in net yards per play at home last season.
  • Andy Dalton’s QB rating was 19 points higher in road games last season compared with home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 34.88)
  • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Colts. (Avg losing margin: 17.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals’ last five games on the road against the Colts.
  • The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Bengals are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games as underdog.

Buccaneers vs. Saints

  • Tampa starting QB Jameis Winston suspended
    • Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick gets start
  • Saints QB Drew Brees with 48 career passing TDs to Tampa, most against any opponent
  • New Orleans big public bet
  • New Orleans averaged the most points per game at home last season with 30.2. The Bucs allowed the most points per game on the road last season with 29.2.
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.25).
  • In two games vs the Bucs last season, Alvin Kamara had 280 total yards and 3 TDs.
  • The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs their division at home.
  • The Saints ranked 1st in net yards per play last season. Tampa Bay ranked 26th in net yards per play on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints’ last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Buccaneers’ last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.67)
  • The Buccaneers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
  • Saints biggest favorites in week 1 but biggest faves in opening week 12-22 against the spread since 1993
  • All week 1 underdogs of eight or more since 1995 are 38-19
  • Bucs Ryan Fitzpatrick worst NFL underdog at 28-41

Chiefs vs. Chargers

  • Chargers ageing future Hall-of-Famer Antonio Gates is probably
    • Off career-low 316 yards, 30 catches
    • Hunter Henry, who had 45 catches for 579 yards last year out
  • KC QB Patrick Mahomes makes his second career start
    • First QB since 2008 a QB with 5 or less starts took over for an offense that was Top 5 previous season
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg winning margin: 12.38)
  • In two games vs KC last season, Philip Rivers had 1 TD and 6 INTs with a 42.9 QB rating.
  • The Chiefs ranked 1st overall in net yards per play on the road last season.
  • The Chiefs are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 divisional road games.
  • The Chargers are 4-16 SU in their last 20 divisional games.
  • The Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs’ last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 39.88)
  • The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers’ last six games. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
  • The Chiefs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September
  • Chiefs HC Andy Reid is 30-19 with more than a week to prepare
  • Chargers QB Philip Rivers 0-8 to Chiefs DC Bob Sutton with 13 INTs to 6 TDs

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Texans vs. Patriots

  • DeShaun Watson returns at QB for Texans
    • With him: 35.7 points per game; without him: 13 points per game
  • At home last season including the playoffs, Tom Brady threw 23 TDs and just 2 INTs.
  • The Texans are 0-7 SU in their last seven games against the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 16.14)
  • The Patriots are 19-8-3 ATS in their last 30 regular-season home games.
  • The Patriots ranked second in points per game last season with 28.9. The Texans allowed the most points per game last season with 27.2.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Texans’ last 10 games against the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games against AFC South teams.
  • The Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Texans are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 13.86)
  • When the line moves against Tom Brady, the Pats are 58-36-5
  • Super Bowl losers are 6-13 SU and 4-15 against the spread in week 1, but Pats 2-0 and 1-1 respectively
  • Pats star WR Julian Edelman is suspended
    • 425 career receptions

Jaguars v. Giants

  • Odell Beckham Jr. is back. Manning averages almost 50 more passing yards per game with him in lineup
  • This is just the second time since 2007 that the Giants are a home dog in September (last was 2013 vs Denver).
  • The Giants ranked 29th in net yards per play last season. The Jags ranked 4th.
  • The Giants allowed the second-most points per game at home last season (26.1)
  • The Giants are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
  • The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Giants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Giants’ last 12 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jaguars’ last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs NFC opponents.
  • Jags starting DE Dante Fowler is suspended
  • First time Jacksonville is road favorites since 2008
  • Jags OL is rebuilt and many believe Giants secondary matches up well with Jags wideout

Bills vs. Ravens

  • Ravens biggest public bet
  • Biggest under consensus as well
  • The Ravens are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
    • John Harbaugh takes preseason more seriously than most coaches
  • Ravens 15-5 against the spread off bye or week 1 compared to 62-70-8 playing meaningful games in back-to-back weeks
  • The Ravens are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Bills are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills’ last seven games against the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 34.57)
  • The Bills are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Ravens. (Avg losing margin: 8.75)
  • Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in a game last season and was heavily ridiculed by internet users.
  • The favored team is 11-3 SU in the last 14 games in this matchup.
  • The Bills are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road
  • Winds 12-15 mph expected

Bears vs. Packers

  • The Bears went 0-3 SU in divisional road games last season, losing by an average of 14.6 points.
  • Packers Aaron Rodgers has a 27-17-1 ATS record in prime-time regular-season games
    • League best 35-18 to division AGAINST THE SPREAD
    • 41-18 at home
  • The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against the Packers.
  • The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against the Packers.
  • Mitchell Trubisky had a 68.9 QB rating on the road in 2017.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bears’ last nine games against the Packers. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Packers allowed 7.6 fewer points per game at home last season compared with on the road.
  • The Packers are 25-7-1 SU in their last 33 games against their division at home.
  • The Bears are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 10.11)
  • The Bears are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears’ last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.8)
  • Very underrated RB Aaron Jones is suspended for Pack
    • Averaged 5.5 yards per rush last season

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