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Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Are Parlays Good Bets? No, Plus More Sports Gambling Info

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We are presenting the latest in a series of a series of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout.” First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.

But to answer the oft-asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”

This is even truer in baseball, whereby design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet again widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.

We believe there are actual “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self-control and little delusions.

Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often but do so to have a good time first and foremost.  Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.

It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him, that is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.

We see no other use for parlays.  

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the most significant gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually every sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.

He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records,  yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore, they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI.”

Stevie Vincent believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports.  “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”  

Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com, agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well-marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge.  That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.

As we’ve said, Internet radio is precious in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few.  Finally, the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online.

A real sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices.  No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game-time decision.”

The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.  

The number of sources for real-time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.

Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at www.joeduffy.net.

 

 

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Sharp vs. Square Betting, WHIP, NHL Betting Myths

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This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Sharp versus Square FAQ

As clients know, we have had enormous success with sharp versus square plays. That means most of the sharp players are going one way and most of the sucker players the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts.  We go with the sharp money.  Our article “Sharp Players Don’t Disappear, They Just Fade Away” explains why such data truly works. 

It was a question from a loyal client who made us aware we were a bit fallible when we said “money” rather than “players”. Sharp players are almost always high rollers, but they are greatly outnumbered by the square investor, who covers a wide profile ranging from a $5 player to the $5,000 a game degenerate.

It’s “one man, one vote” as far as we are concerned.  Contrarian information from a $10 four-team parlay player can be as valuable as, and in most cases arguably more valuable than that from a dime player.  Also parlay selections are tabulated the same way individual plays would be.

As enlightened above, parlay players are a contrarian kingpin’s best friend. 

Can’t Claim Any Myths in the NHL

We’ve made a lot of money over the years exposing myths in sports betting.  Many of the false convictions, as we point out, are examples of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.  However in the NHL playoffs, a hot goalie and quality special teams are the big X-factor.  The difference between the two elements is that overall not recent performance would be most important when handicapping power play and penalty killing.  But the common idea it true, nothing is better than a netminder who enters the postseason “in the zone.”

WHIP it Real Good Baseball Handicapper

We had written an article that many of you raved about as being enlightening on ERA versus WHIP in baseball handicapping. Add one of the sharpest minds in sports handicapping history, Stevie
Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com to list of sharp players who believe WHIP is the most underutilized tool in handicapping.

Vincent, a veteran actually uses walks/hits per game as his official stat.  It’s the same statistic just calculated over a full game rather than by inning. Vincent was using it before WHIP became chic by the roto geeks. Hence the slight difference which is nothing more than semantics. 

Vincent in fact believes “picking baseball totals is now the easiest way to win in any type of gambling: horses, craps, poker, blackjack, you name it.” Vincent weighs walks/hits per game first with each starter, using last three starts, last seven starts, year to date both overall and home/away, and then he utilizes each starter’s career stats in the game day ballpark.  Like us, he prefers bestowing a pitcher’s cumulative batting average against to the opposing team’s current players much more than the more widely used pitcher’s career stats against that team.

“That way if an AL pitcher came from the NL and faced Gary Sheffield when he played for the Braves, Dodgers, Florida, San Diego and Milwaukee, those stats are factored in.”  As Vincent points out, when lesser handicappers would instead simply use a pitcher’s career stats against the Yankees, it may take into consideration players who are no longer on the Bronx Bombers.

He acknowledges that can be the case when he uses ballpark stats, but as he points out “that’s what I want to measure, if a certain park caters to a pitcher’s strengths or exploits his weaknesses.”

Vincent says otherwise the ballpark stats would in many ways simply overlap with a pitcher’s lifetime stats against an opponent. “Gamblers’ double jeopardy” he calls it. Vincent than says that bullpen must be considered, but reading the boxscore from the night before is mandatory in knowing the availability of relief pitchers for the next day. 

Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Get his exclusive news and notes from his own clipboard at JoeDuffy.Net home of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown of top sports service plays. 

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 19

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God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 19

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Granddaddy of Them All Still Worthwhile Despite Long Nap

Over the years, we’ve reviewed some of our favorite information sites.  Computer Sports World and I go back a long time.  Before this fancy thing called the Internet, I was subscribing to them in the dinosaur days of dial-up BBS. 

If you remember Procomm DOS software, you like me are probably middle aged or older.

Baseball is the last remaining sport I use CSW, only because I think their baseball match-ups, the “516” file as we old timers know it, is very succinct.  The file focuses on the primary information we use to weed out games before digging deeper with other sources.

The one thing that baffles me is why they persist on not updating the current year’s data until 7-10 games into the year. They instead insist on just posting the static data from last year.  Earth to Computer Sports World, last year’s data will not change.

I did make the mistake of calling and asking and was simply told the in house writers asked for them to not update until there is more data. One could argue limited year to date statistics has limited value.  But again, considering last year’s stats could be put into a permanent file for the writers, the customer could then not have the decision made for him that the first week’s worth of games has no handicapping value, but somehow what happened the previous season does.

Buyer beware that CSW is essentially worthless until a week or so into the season.

All in all, even now a good source, but the relative Johnny-come-lately sites have diminished Computer Sports World’s value even after once they get around to acknowledging a new year has started.

Score One for ESPN

One of the most commonly asked questions on the posting boards is “what is your favorite site for scores?”  Though sometimes there are some technical glitches, ESPN’s “Real Time Scoreboard” (part of ESPN Insider) is unbelievable.  Just to give you an idea, sometimes I will be listening to the game on my satellite radio and the slight radio delay is behind “watching” the play-by-play on my computer.

Sadly ESPN must kowtow to the hypocrisy that exists in America about gambling. Otherwise it would be nice in college sports to have a scoreboard that is close to real time without having to sift through worthless games that are not in the offshore rotation.

 

Dynamics Change in the Postseason

I know there is one handicapper out there who most of his handicapping is based on the home/road variances.  That’s been a part of our handicapping for years.  But the key for a quality handicapper is one who knows when and how to make proper adjustments.

One of the great examples is how the considerations must be adjusted for the NBA playoffs when it comes to weighing home and road performance. On one hand, the fair to middling teams often will have much larger attendance and for all teams generally more enthusiastic home crowds.

However during the regular season, the travel schedule disproportionately benefits the home team. Teams playing their fifth game in five nights or third in four nights are usually the road team. Depth isn’t as much of an issue as teams shorten their bench during the postseason.

Of course this would apply to both home and road games, but a deep bench paid dividends the most was during the regular season was in the midst of long road trips, a situation that does not apply to the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong, home and road records are still huge in our analysis during the postseason, but we balance with total awareness that tweaks must be made on a team-to-team basis.

Check out Joe Duffy’s new and notes for the sports gambler, compiled from hometown newspapers at JoeDuffy.net.  Also check out the Handicapper’s
Sampler, which is the daily rundown of top sports service plays.