Top sports betting podcast with preview of Steelers-Panthers, North Carolina State-Wake Forest, plus betting percentages from offshore and Vegas sportsbooks.
Sports betting headquarters OffshoreInsiders.com and DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts brings you very important and critical gambling info for week 1 of NFL betting. Included is a free pick from Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy.
Duffy is 18-6 NFL and get four winners (at least) including a Wise Guy for opening NFL Sunday at OffshoreInsiders.com
Titans vs. Dolphins
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker is doubtful
57 catches last year
MarQueis Gray, very good blocking TD, is out for Miami
Titans WR Rishard Matthews will likely be on rep count, but will play
53 receptions for 795 yards and 4 TDs
The Dolphins are 42-18 SU in their last 60 games at home in September.
In Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase’s only season together in 2016, the Dolphins went 6-1 SU in Tannehill home starts and averaged 27 points per game.
Marcus Mariota has a 69.1 QB rating on the road in 2017 with 11 interceptions and just five TD passes.
The Dolphins averaged 11.7 more points at home in 2017 than on the road.
The Titans are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games on the road.
The Dolphins are 11-6-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog.
The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins’ last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 48.09)
The Titans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road against the Dolphins.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Titans’ last 13 games on the road against the Dolphins.
Redskins vs. Cardinals
Skins starting RB Derrius Guice is out for year and FA Adrian Peterson gets start
The Redskins are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Cardinals.
The visiting team is 0-6 SU in the last six games in this matchup.
The Cardinals are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games in September.
The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Cardinals’ last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.75)
The Redskins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 1
Washington had a lot of preseason injuries, but come in healthy
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Panthers WR Curtis Samuel is out
Last year’s second round pick had 15 catches before season-ending injury in game 10
Carolina large public bet
The Cowboys are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
Dallas ranked 3rd in net yards per play on the road last season. Carolina ranked 30th in net yards per play at home.
The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Panthers.
The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 52.5)
The Panthers are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games. (Avg combined score: 36.33)
The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road
The Seahawks are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
The Broncos are 40-12 SU in their last 52 games at home.
The Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in September.
The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games in the late afternoon.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks’ last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
Seattle allowed the second-fewest points per game on the road last season (17.2)
Denver all-time top week 1 NFL teams at 38-19-1
High altitude not only helps them at home, but also get more prepared for regular season
Divisional games where wind in single-digits and a total of 44 or lower has gone over 615-499-21
Seattle QB Russell Wilson 14-5-1 underdogs covering by 6.8 points per game
Seattle’s defense in transition with Kam Chanellor and Richard Sherman
Free pick: SEATTLE OVER 42.5
Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers star RB Le’Veon Bell is doubtful as contract holdout
1291 yards rushing last year
Browns NFL’s biggest upgrade at QB with Tyrod Taylor making start
Potential star WR Josh Gordon will be on a “pitch count” after missing a lot of camp time for personal and hamstring injuries
The Steelers are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
The Browns averaged a league-low 12.3 points per game at home last season.
The Browns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
The Browns are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games. (Avg losing margin: 10.53)
The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers’ last 11 games against the Browns. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
The Steelers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games on the road against the Browns.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Browns’ last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.69)
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Steelers’ last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.63)
Winds are expected to exceed 10 mph
When total is 50 or less and wins speed is 10 mph or higher, games have gone under 403-324-8
https://youtu.be/1m5UF9odh-8
49ers vs. Vikings
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is “back to normal” but had two preseason carries since season-ending injury
Look for Latavius Murray and Mike Boone to get extra carries early in season
Jimmy Garoppolo’s teams are averaging 28.3 points per game with him as starter
Faces No. 1 scoring defense from last year
San Francisco without suspended star LB Reuben Foster because of injury
Minnesota very thinned by injuries on OL
The Vikings are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
The Vikings allowed 13.8 points per game at home last season — second-best in the NFL.
The 49ers went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter last season, averaging 28.8 points per game.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last six games against the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 33.17)
The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 14.6)
The Vikings led the league in net yards per play at home last season.
The 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Vikings.
Jimmy Garoppolo went on a date with an adult film actress during the offseason.
The Vikings are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 13.83)
The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road
Vikings HC Mike Zimmer top covering coach in the NFL at 43-21 including 23-9 at home
Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins is 0-3 with a 71.7 passer rating and two touchdowns to five interceptions in Week 1. Only Jets backup Josh McCown (0-8) has a worse rating in season-openers among active quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts).
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Bengals vs. Colts
Colts QB Andrew Luck makes first regular season appearance since 2016
Colts RB Marlon Mack is questionable
93 carries for 358 yards rushing last year, plus 225 yards receiving and a TD
Bengals star LB Vontaze Burfict is questionable
The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
The Colts ranked last in net yards per play at home last season.
Andy Dalton’s QB rating was 19 points higher in road games last season compared with home games.
The total has gone UNDER in the Colts’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 34.88)
The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Colts. (Avg losing margin: 17.5)
The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals’ last five games on the road against the Colts.
The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
The Bengals are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games as underdog.
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Tampa starting QB Jameis Winston suspended
Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick gets start
Saints QB Drew Brees with 48 career passing TDs to Tampa, most against any opponent
New Orleans big public bet
New Orleans averaged the most points per game at home last season with 30.2. The Bucs allowed the most points per game on the road last season with 29.2.
The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.25).
In two games vs the Bucs last season, Alvin Kamara had 280 total yards and 3 TDs.
The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs their division at home.
The Saints ranked 1st in net yards per play last season. Tampa Bay ranked 26th in net yards per play on the road.
The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints’ last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
The total has gone OVER in seven of the Buccaneers’ last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.67)
The Buccaneers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games as road underdogs.
The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
Saints biggest favorites in week 1 but biggest faves in opening week 12-22 against the spread since 1993
All week 1 underdogs of eight or more since 1995 are 38-19
Bucs Ryan Fitzpatrick worst NFL underdog at 28-41
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Chargers ageing future Hall-of-Famer Antonio Gates is probably
Off career-low 316 yards, 30 catches
Hunter Henry, who had 45 catches for 579 yards last year out
KC QB Patrick Mahomes makes his second career start
First QB since 2008 a QB with 5 or less starts took over for an offense that was Top 5 previous season
The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg winning margin: 12.38)
In two games vs KC last season, Philip Rivers had 1 TD and 6 INTs with a 42.9 QB rating.
The Chiefs ranked 1st overall in net yards per play on the road last season.
The Chiefs are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games vs divisional opponents.
The Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 divisional road games.
The Chargers are 4-16 SU in their last 20 divisional games.
The Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs divisional opponents.
The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Chargers.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs’ last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 39.88)
The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers’ last six games. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
The Chiefs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September
Chiefs HC Andy Reid is 30-19 with more than a week to prepare
Chargers QB Philip Rivers 0-8 to Chiefs DC Bob Sutton with 13 INTs to 6 TDs
We are presenting the latest in a series of a series of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Parlays are Par to Lay Off
We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout.” First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.
But to answer the oft-asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”
This is even truer in baseball, whereby design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet again widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.
We believe there are actual “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self-control and little delusions.
Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often but do so to have a good time first and foremost. Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.
It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him, that is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.
We see no other use for parlays.
No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers
Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the most significant gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually every sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.
He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records, yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore, they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI.”
Stevie Vincent believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports. “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”
Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com, agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well-marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”
The World Keeps Getting Smaller
We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge. That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.
As we’ve said, Internet radio is precious in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few. Finally, the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online.
A real sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices. No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game-time decision.”
The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.
The number of sources for real-time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.
Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at www.joeduffy.net.
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Sharp versus Square FAQ
As clients know, we have had enormous success with sharp versus square plays. That means most of the sharp players are going one way and most of the sucker players the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts.We go with the sharp money. Our article “Sharp Players Don’t Disappear, They Just Fade Away” explains why such data truly works.
It was a question from a loyal client who made us aware we were a bit fallible when we said “money” rather than “players”. Sharp players are almost always high rollers, but they are greatly outnumbered by the square investor, who covers a wide profile ranging from a $5 player to the $5,000 a game degenerate.
It’s “one man, one vote” as far as we are concerned.Contrarian information from a $10 four-team parlay player can be as valuable as, and in most cases arguably more valuable than that from a dime player.Also parlay selections are tabulated the same way individual plays would be.
As enlightened above, parlay players are a contrarian kingpin’s best friend.
Can’t Claim Any Myths in the NHL
We’ve made a lot of money over the years exposing myths in sports betting.Many of the false convictions, as we point out, are examples of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.However in the NHL playoffs, a hot goalie and quality special teams are the big X-factor.The difference between the two elements is that overall not recent performance would be most important when handicapping power play and penalty killing.But the common idea it true, nothing is better than a netminder who enters the postseason “in the zone.”
WHIP it Real Good Baseball Handicapper
We had written an article that many of you raved about as being enlightening on ERA versus WHIP in baseball handicapping. Add one of the sharpest minds in sports handicapping history, Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com to list of sharp players who believe WHIP is the most underutilized tool in handicapping.
Vincent, a veteran actually uses walks/hits per game as his official stat.It’s the same statistic just calculated over a full game rather than by inning. Vincent was using it before WHIP became chic by the roto geeks. Hence the slight difference which is nothing more than semantics.
Vincent in fact believes “picking baseball totals is now the easiest way to win in any type of gambling: horses, craps, poker, blackjack, you name it.” Vincent weighs walks/hits per game first with each starter, using last three starts, last seven starts, year to date both overall and home/away, and then he utilizes each starter’s career stats in the game day ballpark.Like us, he prefers bestowing a pitcher’s cumulative batting average against to the opposing team’s current players much more than the more widely used pitcher’s career stats against that team.
“That way if an AL pitcher came from the NL and faced Gary Sheffield when he played for the Braves, Dodgers, Florida, San Diego and Milwaukee, those stats are factored in.”As Vincent points out, when lesser handicappers would instead simply use a pitcher’s career stats against the Yankees, it may take into consideration players who are no longer on the Bronx Bombers.
He acknowledges that can be the case when he uses ballpark stats, but as he points out “that’s what I want to measure, if a certain park caters to a pitcher’s strengths or exploits his weaknesses.”
Vincent says otherwise the ballpark stats would in many ways simply overlap with a pitcher’s lifetime stats against an opponent. “Gamblers’ double jeopardy” he calls it. Vincent than says that bullpen must be considered, but reading the boxscore from the night before is mandatory in knowing the availability of relief pitchers for the next day.
Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Get his exclusive news and notes from his own clipboard at JoeDuffy.Net home of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown of top sports service plays.
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Granddaddy of Them All Still Worthwhile Despite Long Nap
Over the years, we’ve reviewed some of our favorite information sites.Computer Sports World and I go back a long time.Before this fancy thing called the Internet, I was subscribing to them in the dinosaur days of dial-up BBS.
If you remember Procomm DOS software, you like me are probably middle aged or older.
Baseball is the last remaining sport I use CSW, only because I think their baseball match-ups, the “516” file as we old timers know it, is very succinct. The file focuses on the primary information we use to weed out games before digging deeper with other sources.
The one thing that baffles me is why they persist on not updating the current year’s data until 7-10 games into the year. They instead insist on just posting the static data from last year.Earth to Computer Sports World, last year’s data will not change.
I did make the mistake of calling and asking and was simply told the in house writers asked for them to not update until there is more data. One could argue limited year to date statistics has limited value.But again, considering last year’s stats could be put into a permanent file for the writers, the customer could then not have the decision made for him that the first week’s worth of games has no handicapping value, but somehow what happened the previous season does.
Buyer beware that CSW is essentially worthless until a week or so into the season.
All in all, even now a good source, but the relative Johnny-come-lately sites have diminished Computer Sports World’s value even after once they get around to acknowledging a new year has started.
Score One for ESPN
One of the most commonly asked questions on the posting boards is “what is your favorite site for scores?”Though sometimes there are some technical glitches, ESPN’s “Real Time Scoreboard” (part of ESPN Insider) is unbelievable.Just to give you an idea, sometimes I will be listening to the game on my satellite radio and the slight radio delay is behind “watching” the play-by-play on my computer.
Sadly ESPN must kowtow to the hypocrisy that exists in America about gambling. Otherwise it would be nice in college sports to have a scoreboard that is close to real time without having to sift through worthless games that are not in the offshore rotation.
Dynamics Change in the Postseason
I know there is one handicapper out there who most of his handicapping is based on the home/road variances.That’s been a part of our handicapping for years.But the key for a quality handicapper is one who knows when and how to make proper adjustments.
One of the great examples is how the considerations must be adjusted for the NBA playoffs when it comes to weighing home and road performance. On one hand, the fair to middling teams often will have much larger attendance and for all teams generally more enthusiastic home crowds.
However during the regular season, the travel schedule disproportionately benefits the home team. Teams playing their fifth game in five nights or third in four nights are usually the road team. Depth isn’t as much of an issue as teams shorten their bench during the postseason.
Of course this would apply to both home and road games, but a deep bench paid dividends the most was during the regular season was in the midst of long road trips, a situation that does not apply to the playoffs.
Don’t get me wrong, home and road records are still huge in our analysis during the postseason, but we balance with total awareness that tweaks must be made on a team-to-team basis.
Check out Joe Duffy’s new and notes for the sports gambler, compiled from hometown newspapers at JoeDuffy.net.Also check out the Handicapper’s Sampler, which is the daily rundown of top sports service plays.
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Professor Wolfers’ Response
Our previous article “Bad Conclusions about Fixing Need to Get Fixed” took to task University of Pennsylvania professor Justin Wolfers’ contention about college basketball games having a shocking number of games involving point shaving.Here on the Duffy Factor, we let the guests have the last word, so here is the good professor’s:
Thanks for sending me your article. I must admit that I’m a bit puzzled by some of your criticisms – some are obviously fair, and some seem to me to be off the mark. I’m not sure if you have read the underlying research paper, but if you do go and read it carefully, I think you will get a stronger sense of precisely what the argument is, and hence which of your criticisms are more and less valid.
Specifically, the evidence about whether long favorites cover, is less relevant than the asymmetry – just covering versus just failing to cover. And your interesting discussion about strong favorites being overbet is also explicitly discussed in the paper. The argument is essentially that if it is simply an artifact of the Duke’s of the world being overbet (thereby making 14 point favorites 16 point favorites), then one should expect 16 point favorites to win less often than one might expect for a team this heavily favorite. Figure 4 in the paper suggests that this isn’t true.
Our Wise Guy winner on Florida over George Mason in the 2006 Final 4 is far from the only example, but certainly as high profile as any, of a theory we’ve ridden for years. Teams that have the glass slipper for a variety of reasons will fall prey to the law of diminishing return and in fact reach a point of negative return.
When a team (or in baseball a pitcher as well) is playing above their head, chances are they will return to their level, but their value will be much higher on the betting line. Furthermore, they face the burden of high expectations.
Ironic, we just spoke of the University of Pennsylvania, because in 1979 they opened our eyes to this.Once a team goes from dark horse to contender, we red flag them as possible go-against teams, pending other factors.
In college sports, a team that enters the Top 25 either for the first time ever or the first time in decades is the epitome of such team. The mid major college team that pulls off a few upsets in pre conference play (remember Gary Trent) is another commonplace occurrence.Perhaps the archetype is the several-times-a-year-example of a MLB pitcher who comes out of nowhere to look like the second coming of Cy Young in his first four or five starts.
Handicappers should never forget the adage, “It’s easier to get to the top than to stay on top”.
It’s Right for Some Stats to be Left Behind
In 2005, Cleveland was 42-20 on the road to right-handed starters but 8-12 to lefthanders.So they obviously were better against right handers.
Or then again, no. At home they were .500 to righties and five games above to southpaws. The Cubs were much better on the road to lefties in 2005, but at home, significantly more successful to right handers. Washington was the exact same way.
In fact the number of teams that statistically were much better on the road to one type of pitcher and just the opposite at home greatly outnumbers those teams that showed a clear tendency both at home and on the road.
My point is that one of the most overrated stats in baseball handicapping is lefty/righty stats. First of all, most teams will face left handed starters roughly 38-52 times a year.So with such an unbalanced number anyway, stats can get distorted and many other factors including random chance enter the equation when explaining right/left fluctuation.
By no means are we suggesting such stats should be ignored.Lord knows there are many managers in the Hall-of-Fame that are so-called “situational” managers.But then again that’s what they do—adjust to the situation and counteract any imbalance that existed in the starting line-up.
If for example one handicaps that the Cubs are much better against left-handed pitching and the team they are facing is starting a left-hander, what happens if the top three relief pitchers on the team they are facing happen to be right handed pitchers? Those stats go out the window in a tie game late once the other team goes to the bullpen and can make mid-course corrections.In fact, the stats can then go polar opposite.
Randy Johnson has been facing top-heavy right handed line-ups his entire career. Here’s a secret: he mows them down too. Need I say more? Unless a team or pitcher both home and away has demonstrated beyond doubt to be significantly better to righties or lefties, let the handicapper beware.
Even if a true angle is uncovered, it’s the job of the “situation manager” to adjust.We use such numbers, but do so with caution. It’s the “right” thing to do.
JoeDuffy.net has become the ultimate source for daily free gaming news and notes both daily and advanced, top sports service plays and more. America’s greatest sports service is OffshoreInsiders.com.
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