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NFL

Wise Guy…

MINNESOTA +2 Green Bay

Minnesota
has the league’s best run defense and a great one-two punch at running back
with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Yes Taylor
is expected to play and start. Who starts at QB for Minnesota,
really isn’t as important because there is no edge in the raw quarterback of
the future versus the journey of Kelly Holcomb.

We are sold on Green Bay
being a good team, but not on the verge of being 4-0 squad. Going with any team
on the moneyline after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more
points in two straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

NY GIANTS +3 Philadelphia

The Eagles personify both ends of one of our gambling
Golden Rules: each week there are 3-5 teams that are not nearly as good as they
looked and 3-5 teams that are not nearly as bad as they’ve looked.

Remember, Philly put it all together after looking abysmal
in Weeks one and two. Philly’s Brian Westbrook is a gametime
decision, but we don’t expect him to be 100 percent even if he plays. He is
huge for Philly. He did not practice this week. Meanwhile, our sources tell us
key Giants weapons Plaxico Burress will start.

Major…

SEATTLE -2 San Francisco

Shaun Alexander will wear down the league’s No. 25 run
defense. Though we are actually sold on
the 49ers being a team on the verge of breaking out, they are without key chain
mover tight end Vernon Davis.

Seattle can
also move the ball in the air as they average 7.4 passing yards per attempt
against teams normally allowing 6.4. Seattle’s
domination of San Francisco
suffered a setback last year when they were swept.

To be sure, the formula for beating Seattle
will be more complicated than it was last season. In both games, the 49ers kept
pounding running back Frank Gore into the line and when he broke into the
secondary, the Seahawks safeties tackled – or rather, didn’t tackle – like Chickenhawks. Holmgren didn’t
mess around. He dumped both of the old safeties last winter and signed two new
ones, Deon Grant (from Jacksonville)
and Brian Russell (from Cleveland).

Grant and Russell can tackle. With Alexander and Hasselbeck both in the
line-up, which was not the case last year, they are one of the top teams in the
NFC. They get the win today.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -115 Denver

The last two times Denver
has come to Indianapolis, the Colts
scored 90 points. This is a competitor consensus. If we do not have a lean towards one side but
it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or
consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a
“competitor consensus”.

ARIZONA +230 (Moneyline) Pittsburgh

Arizona’s
head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm know the Steelers
as well as their current coaching staff. Going with any team on the moneyline
after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more points in two
straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

ATLANTA +3 Houston

Houston’s best
weapons Ahman Green is likely out and Andre Johnson
is out. Houston may be without
three of their top five receivers. Atlanta
has a very winnable game. While we
singled out Houston as a dark horse
team before the year, it was because of several weapons they will be without
today.

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