Tag Archives: NFL picks

Best teams to bet on according to margin of cover. Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Miami	4-2	10.9
Pittsburgh	4-1	7.2
Arizona	4-2	6.7

Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover.

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
NY Jets	0-6	-11.3
Dallas	0-6	-8.9
Jacksonville	2-4	-5.7

Best over teams based on average number of points they’ve gone over by

Team	Over Record	Over-Under margin
New Orleans	5-0	10.8
Dallas	4-2	10.7
Las Vegas	4-0-1	10.6
Tennessee	4-1	10.1

Best under teams based on average number of points they’ve gone under by

Team	Under Record	Over-Under margin
Arizona	6-0	-4.8
LA Rams	4-2	-4.1
NY Giants	5-2	-3.4

Sunday, 10 NFL winners led by Wise Guy from Joe Duffy’s Picks. Oh, last week Detroit wins as NFL GOY and yesterday Oklahoma UNDER as College Football Total of the Year. Get the picks now

ATS Trends

Kansas City 13-2 all
Chargers 0-7 home favorites
Seattle 7-0 road favorites
Detroit 3-12 last 15

Over-Under trends

Pittsburgh under 36-8-2 road
Cleveland over 7-0 favorites

Injuries

Cardinals superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable
- 47 catches, 601 yards, 2 TDs
Jets WR Jamison Crowder is doubtful
- Already 29 catches for 383 yards, 2 TDs
Saints WR Emmanuel Crowder out
- 26 catches, 304 yards, 2 TDs
Buffalo is down to one true TD, Tyler Croft with has 6 catches
Rams WR Robert Woods is probable for Monday
Pats WR Julian Edelman questionable
- 20 catches for 302 yards
Jets QB Sam Darnold is probable
- Another shaky year with 3 TD and 4 INT
- See above, likely to be without top WR

Top consensus plays in terms of percent of bets: Green Bay (69), Dallas (64), Seattle (64) as the usual public love of road favorites keeps rolling along.

Top consensus plays in terms of percent of money: Green Bay (97), Tennessee (88), Seattle (84)

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Free Picks Titans-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs NFL Playoff Picks

January 8, 2020 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

NFL conference semi-final action and free picks from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

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Titans-Ravens

When big underdog playoff team has at least two more loss as a favorite 58-23-2 (Titans)
Going against teams with a margin of +11.5 or better is 24-9 in postseason (Titans)
Tannehill completed more than 70% of his passes for 2,742 yards during his 11 regular-season games. He had 22 touchdown passes and four rushing TDs while throwing only six interceptions. In six of his last seven regular-season games, he had a passer rating of 130.8 or better
Both teams will run with Henry and Jackson
Jackson two weeks off

The pick: UNDER 47

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Texans-Chiefs

Playoff home teams off bye and win under specific circumstances that apply today a go-against of 14-1 (Tennessee)
Big home favorites despite splits saying they are better on the road is 104-69-3 (Kansas)
Teams in playoff revenge of same-season loss is 67-48 including 6-0 laying 9 or more winning by an average of 32.5-16
- Overall revenge however 14-16-2 since 2014
Teams off a playoff comeback win after trailing by 14 or more are a fade of 56-47 (Kansas City)
Reid tends to be more aggressive early

The pick: OVER 9.5 first quarter

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Two NFL Wise Guys Saturday. Sunday, two NFL Majors. Sunday, National Championship side all at OffshoreInsiders.com

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Week 16 NFL Free Winning Picks

December 17, 2019 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

NFL free picks galore. The premium plays will be coming to OffshoreInsiders.com but already a huge bowl season. First bowl drop! I am 69-40 Wise Guy and Major in college football for Friday. Saturday, what a windfall! Pre-Christmas Game and Total of the Year both go among six bowl winners. Monday, another bowl Major. Get the picks now

Texans (-2.5, 51) at Bucs

Going against bad defenses off a win is 144-86-5 (Houston)
Opened a pick but big line moves because of injury updates
Tampa WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin doubtful
- Evans 67 catches
- Godwin 86 catches
Teams that scored 28 or more points in at least six of their last seven (Tampa) are a fade of 79-49 (Houston) and go under 73-54
Houston not officially clinched division but would take a miracle
Small chance J.J. Watt could come back

The pick: Houston

Rams at Niners (-6, 45)

Teams off a loss as large favorite are 101-70 (San Francisco)
Consecutive road games, team off loss is 315-218-11 (Rams)
Late-season regression to the mean angle based on ats margin is 140-96-8 (Rams)
Go against much better running team late in season is 82-50-2 (Rams)
Big dog with defense has spent substantially more time on field is 125-80-3 (Rams)

The pick: LA Rams +6

Ravens (-10) at Browns

Bad spread team to good one is 193-114-13
Browns out of playoffs
Freddie Kitchens likely one and done
Ravens not much to play for and putting reigns on Lamar Jackson makes sense
- Already set record
Home double-digit dogs in week 15 or later 28-15, though admittedly 4-5 since 2014 (Browns)

The pick: Cleveland +10

Saints (-2, 51) at Titans SNF

Small home underdogs off loss as a favorite 69-48-8 for 59 percent

The pick: Titans +2

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Week 6 NFL Injuries, Sharp Moves, Public Consensus, Weather

October 13, 2019 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

In no shock, the public loves road favorites this week, with the only two overwhelming public consensus bets on Atlanta and Arizona. Tennessee is slight road underdog, but opened as a favorite on the Betonline lookahead line. Plus with home field being worth three-points, they are the implied better team playing on the road.

As one can see below, with top advisor to pro gamblers Joe Duffy in another groove, high rollers are putting a beating on the books.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Atlanta, Arizona

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Atlanta, Tennessee; Atlanta OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Jacksonville

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds. This includes true opening lines over the summer when books had “games of the year” lines posted: Dallas opened -1.5 to Jets now -7; Kansas City -8.5 now -4, Carolina P now -2.5.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from I am 40-24 NFL since preseason. I am 18-7 in college football! Updated: Ten NFL led by Wise Guy side. I swept Wise Guys already with Friday Night GOY on Miami, Big 10 Total of the Year Wisconsin UNDER. Also, Army UNDER was a Wise Guy. Added the ALCS total, plus a side or runline.

Simply put, you never have runs like this on your own. My clients expect it and get it delivered. I am smoking hot. Get the picks now

Two sites have fairly high winds today. Here is the week 6 NFL weather report:

Game	Wind Speed
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18 mph
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns	16 mph

Critical NFL injuries:

Saints star RB Alvin Kamara will play
Rams RB Todd Gurley is out
Cardinals RB David Johnson probable
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is probable
Ravens WR Marquise Brown is doubtful
Dallas is ravaged with injuries with starting ORT La’el Collins out and OLT Tryon Smith doubtful. WR Randall “Tex” Cobb is game-time decision

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Critical Monday Night Football Saints-Panthers Info, NBA, College Basketball

December 17, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Winning info for Monday Night Football. It includes ATS trends info, betting free pick, public betting percentages and much more!

Solid Sunday. We will take 60 percent as the Grandmaster goes 6-4 led by only Wise Guy on Philadelphia. MNF side and now total are up. Three NBA winners up as well. That’s 5-0 from the Grandmaster. Get the picks now http://offshoreinsiders.com

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NFL Sharp Moves, Weather, NBA and NCAAB Pros vs. Joes; Tons of Critical Betting Info

December 9, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Biggest bets NFL is from Joe Duffy’s Picks, as usual. Already in the with Jags and Army UNDER as we 2-0 in football this week, plus 2-1 with added rotation games. 15 Sunday NFL winners led by a Wise Guy. That is an all-time record in my 31^st year of my winners public. Be a part of history! As if that’s not enough, the Grandmaster has added three NBA winning picks. Get the picks now

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New Orleans; Indianapolis OVER, Philadelphia OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: San Francisco (very strong)

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Washington opened -1 now +3, Tampa +7.5 now +10, Kansas City -8.5 to -6 (crosses a key number), Cleveland +2.5 now a pick

Critical weather:

Saints-Buccaneers

50 percent chance of precipitation.

Patriots-Dolphins

15 mph winds

NBA sharp intel

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toronto, Milwaukee OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New York UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp action

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Gonzaga

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Grand Canyon, Gonzaga; Virginia UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Grand Canyon

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Tennessee State opened -10 now -7

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Urgent Overnight Week 10 NFL Sharp Action, Sportsbook Intel

November 11, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

We will update this sensational intel Sunday morning via YouTube, Facebook, Periscope, VK, and OK. You will have a major free pick as well.

NFL sharp action:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Atlanta,

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia, Seattle, Green Bay; New England OVER, Atlanta OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Cleveland

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Chicago opened at -3.5 now -7, Atlanta -2.5 now -5.5, Green Bay -7 now -10.

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Best teams to bet on in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Kansas City 8-1 by 8.6, Chicago 5-2 +6.2

Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Oakland 2-6 by -11, Jacksonville 3-5 by -6.8, Arizona 4-3 by -6.5, Buffalo 3-6 by -6.4

Biggest over teams (over-under record followed by margin; number of OVERS listed first): Tampa over 7-1 by 10.8, New Orleans 4-4 by 9.9, Kansas City 5-3-1 +8.7, Indianapolis and Cincinnati both 5-3 by 7.9

Biggest under teams: (over-under record followed by margin; number of UNDERS listed first): Tennessee under 5-3 by -7.3

Best sports service pick: We win again at Joe Duffy’s Picks. We are 99-60 in football! They have to invent a sport that we cannot dominate!

Sunday, six Majors and two Wise Guys in NFL. Our sports science labs continue to research and discover. Yes, we did unearth totals metrics that apply cross-sports. That is why our totals have exploded in number of releases and winning percentage. Get the picks now

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Falcons-Eagles Odss, Analysis, Spread Info, Preview, Stats

September 5, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Joe Duffy’s Picks 17-6 NFL explosion of yet another big profits of preseason. Thursday night NFL. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. Get the picks now

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Lions-Raiders, Falcons-Jets, Important Info For NFL Gamblers

August 10, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Friday night preseason critical betting intel Lions-Raiders, Falcons-Jets. This includes news and notes for bettors, line moves, free picks, injuries, NFL weather, sharp bets, betting percentages, and more. OffshoreInsiders.comis committed to broadcasting this information during the NFL regular season live at 10 AM ET on various platforms linked at the top of the page at OffshoreInsiders.com

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