New England Patriots at New York Jets Betting Preview For Thursday Night Football Picks
Game Details:
- Line: Jets -6, Over/Under 38.5 at MYBookie
- Moneyline: Jets -260, Patriots +230
- Opening Line: Jets -7.5, O/U 42; Moneyline: Jets -360
- Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
- Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie
The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.
Sharp Money on Jets?
The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.
Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs
For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.
Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season
Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The “honeymoon period” under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.
Key Computer Program Predictions:
- BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
- Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
- Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
- BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
- StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15
These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.
Trends to Watch:
- Patriots’ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
- Robert Saleh’s September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
- Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
- Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
- Jets: Saleh’s teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
- Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.
Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI
The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.
Betting Systems Favor the Patriots
Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:
- Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
- Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.
Player Prop Bets to Target:
- Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
- Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
- Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
- This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson won’t see many targets in the passing game.
- Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
- The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
- Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
- The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
- Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgers’ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.
Injury Report:
- Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley can’t play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
- Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New England’s defense.
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Conclusion:
This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.
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