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Week 1 College Football Free Pick Tipped Off By Major Syndicate on This Sharp Intel
Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. The NFL Specialist has just unleashed seven NFL winner led by Wise Guy side. Saturday college football winner is also posted. Get the picks now
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UTSA-Texas State OVER 57 at MYBookie where several high money, low-entry fee football betting contests are up.
With 33 years in the industry, to say the least I’ve developed more than my share of contacts. The leader of a very good syndicate that is probably the tops with “organic handicapping” told me this is their strongest bet of the young season so far. Why, Texas San Antonio will really up the tempo under new coach Jeff Traylor. Depth at WR is a strength for them. Texas State’s defense was lit up by SMU and showed little ability to pressure the QB. Sincere McCormick will keep the defense honest as he is one of the top RBs in the conference.
Texas State’s offense did seem to tire against SMU, but had overall success. Texas State’s offense is upgraded, UTSA’s will play at a faster tempo. One of our models has this game going over 55.7 percent of the time. Overacheiving defenses based on delta points allowed go over 243-205-8. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
College Football Sharp Versus Square Report Week 1 Odds
College football week 1 fade the public, sportsbook betting percentages report on latest betting odds
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Louisville 80, Texas State 79; Kansas UNDER 97
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Florida State 95, Texas 91; Western Kentucky OVER 99, Army UNDER 99
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Army -16 now -21, North Carolina -19 now -23
There are several theories on how to use this information. Percentage of bets counts a $5 bet the same as a $5,000 wager. Many of those who believe in betting against the public assert the most valuable fades are from the person betting $10 on a seven-team parlay.
Some sharps declare that the bookies always win, so root for the same games they are hoping win. Thus, fading the liabilities wins most long-term. The top sports handicapper Joe Duffy explains how the sharpest gamblers exploit contrarian betting, weighing information accordingly.
After scrutinizing and researching the results for more than a year, Joe Duffy’s Picks has resolutely concluded the best picks are further enhanced by adding the top two computer simulation programs to our arsenal. His winners are at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 1 NFL Odds Public Betting Percentages: Fade or Fellow, Contrarian Intel
Fade the public? Here is Week 1 NFL odds contrarian and public betting early look.
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Seattle 72, Buffalo 70; Arizona OVER 86, Tampa OVER 84
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Arizona 92, Miami 82, Las Vegas 82; New England UNDER 99, Buffalo UNDER 99, Minnesota UNDER 93
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Las Vegas P to -3, Pittsburgh -3 to -6
There are several theories on how to use this information. Percentage of bets counts a $5 bet the same as a $5,000 wager. Many of those who believe in betting against the public assert the most valuable fades are from the person betting $10 on a seven-team parlay.
Analysis: The public loving underdog Arizona as an underdog, both in terms of tickets and cash is substantial. Conversely, the public loves road favorites, especially smaller ones. Seattle being the top consensus play is expected, Arizona a definite outlier.
Some sharps declare that the bookies always win, so root for the same games they are hoping win. Thus, fading the liabilities wins most long-term. The top sports handicapper Joe Duffy explains how the sharpest gamblers exploit contrarian betting, weighing information accordingly.
OffshoreInsiders.com is the place to check every day before placing a bet.
Bills vs. Jets Daily Wager Betting Tips Week 1 2020 NFL Season
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills sports gambling preview. Sam Darnold, who is high on the list of sportsbooks “first quarterback to get benched” props, goes against fellow youngster Josh Allen.
Odds: Buffalo is -6.5 -115 at Bovada live NFL lines with low total of 39.5. Last season, totals under 40 went under at a 15-8-1 rate. This has been the case since 2013 as all games since then with totals in the 30s have gone under 61-43-1, 59-40-1 just regular season. The game opened -6 -115.
Public betting percentages: Though 66 percent of bets are on the Bills, 56 percent of money are on the J-E-T-S, implying the dog is the sharp bet thus far. Likewise, there is a massive dichotomy in totals betting with 54% percent of tickets on over, yet 95 of money on the under. Many sharps say this is pro money on the under the total.
Power ratings: Massey Ratings expects a competitive game, giving the Bills the edge in a projected 21-17 final.
Computer simulations ATS: Strangely enough, the is massive disagreement between the two elite simulation software projections. One has the Jets covering 6.5 at a 68.9 percent to 31 percent ratio. The other has Buffalo model simulations covering a whopping 59 percent, making it a very strong computer play.
Computer simulations OU: Both programs see this game going under. One model has 73.8 percent of the simulations going under. The other agrees, but at a less eye-popping 54 percent.
Against the spread trends: New York Jets are 3-10 to AFC East. Underdog has covered 8-of-10 in the series.
Over-under trends: Buffalo under 6-1 overall. New York Jets under 5-1 overall.
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Ravens vs. Browns Sports Handicapping Breakdown to Beat New Jersey Sportsbooks
NFL Week 1 Betting Daily Wager Dolphins vs. Patriots Preview
Browns vs. Ravens Point Spread Betting Breakdown From Top Gambling Expert
The Cleveland Browns are at divisional rival Baltimore Ravens. Will Browns QB Baker Mayfield rebound from a disappointing season and can Ravens MVP Lamar Jackson follow up his dream season?
Odds: Shop around because odds range from Baltimore -7.5 to -8 and the juice is all over as well. That total is 48 at Bovada NFL odds.
Public betting percentages: Just 54 percent of wagers are on the Ravens, which 59 percent of cash on Browns. The abnormal percentage on the dog indicates a sharp bet on Cleveland.
Power ratings: Massey Power Ratings have Baltimore coming out on top 27-20.
Computer simulations ATS: Exploiting the top two simulation programs, we see the Browns win to the number 54.9 percent to 43 for Baltimore, with the remainders falling on the number of 8. Another high-profile and sought-after simulator has Baltimore cashing on 56 percent, a very significant percentage by said program’s standards. The Ravens are one of said software’s best bets.
Computer simulations OU: Each program has a strong lean towards the over, one at 57.3-42.6 percent at 48.5, though 57.3-38.8 at 48, with quite a few pushes. The other trusted simulator has 56 percent of computer generated final scores going over,
Against the spread trends: Cleveland is 9-19-1 to AFC North, 17-38-1 underdogs. Ravens are 9-2 overall, yet 2-8 home favorites. Road team is 15-5-1 lately, including the Browns 7-3 in the Charm City.
Over-under trends: Cleveland has gone under 8-2 underdogs.
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NFL Lock Pick Betting Breakdown Dolphins vs. Patriots Gambling Tips
The Miami Dolphins take on the New England Patriots week 1 of Sunday NFL betting. The Patriots begin the post-Tom Brady era. Cam Newton makes his debut for New England, while forever young Ryan Fitzpatrick tosses the pigskin for Miami.
Odds: New England is -6.5 -115 with a total of 43 at NFL live lines, latest odds at MyBookie. It opened Pats -7 and -115.
Public betting percentages: Though 52 percent of wagers are on New England, a stunning 65 percent of money on Dolphins. This strongly implies sharp money on the Fins and the public rarely backs underdogs, especially in this price range.
Power ratings: Massey Ratings has New England squeezing out a 24-16 win.
Computer simulations ATS: Our top programs are clashing as one has Miami covering 6.5 58.5-41.6 percent of the time. The other elite simulation has the Pats beating the bookies 58 percent of replications.
Computer simulations OU: One tells us the game goes over 52.9 percent to 44, the remaining games land on 43. The other elite simulator also has a mild 51 percent exceeding the number.
Against the spread trends: Miami is 7-17 on field turf, but 7-2 last nine to AFC. Pats are 1-6-1 on field turf. New England is 7-1 at home in the series as the home team is 13-3 head-to-head.
Over-under trends: Miami has gone over 6-1 underdogs.
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