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Many handicappers have
authored various articles on March Madness.
Frankly
Godspicks.com we think tops the list.
However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in the conference
tournaments.
Here is an inventory of
parameters to look for:
New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90
percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late
in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination
time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the regular
season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked off
the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the
differentiation. Teams like
occasion.
Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference
playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no
real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the
capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.
Read the previous day’s boxscores: Every
now and then the obvious is true. When
teams are playing two, three or even four consecutive days, depth and how many
minutes their key players have played is inestimable enlightenment. Nagging
injuries are magnified.
Go against top seeds
that need rest more than wins: As
Godspicks clients remember one of our biggest plays all of last year was UCLA
over
announced he would just as soon lose early in the Pac 10 playoffs so his
players could get rested for the Big Dance, wiseguys were laughing when
everyone else called it a huge upset.
Sharp players listened. This is a major intangible that local newspapers
will shed light on—which coaches admit they won’t play their star players 38
minutes per game just to get the official automatic bid when a high seed is
already clinched regardless.
Recent shooting
percentages: The single most
foretelling statistic may surprise some people, but it’s the shooting
percentage by a team in their previous five games relative to the cumulative
defensive average of their opponents in that span. Foxsheets is the best
database for this. Squads in a shooting groove are the toughest opponents in
the postseason. It’s chic to preach
teams playing great defense and riding such teams is important too, but a
red-hot shooting team can exploit the best defenses more than visa versa.
Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your business, sportsbooks
are posting lines earlier and earlier and in fact are handicapped in that they
can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when making the line. Hence key overlooked information comes in the
morning papers, on Sportingnews and ESPN Radio and on
the teams’ own sites. Sharp information
is much more prevalent in the conference celebrations than the regular season
or Big Dance.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and
respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular
guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou
Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and
Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron
Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. Get daily free news and notes, including
advanced notes at www.joeduffy.net