God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 19
Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Granddaddy of Them All Still Worthwhile Despite Long Nap
Over the years, we’ve reviewed some of our favorite information sites. Computer Sports World and I go back a long time. Before this fancy thing called the Internet, I was subscribing to them in the dinosaur days of dial-up BBS.
If you remember Procomm DOS software, you like me are probably middle aged or older.
Baseball is the last remaining sport I use CSW, only because I think their baseball match-ups, the “516” file as we old timers know it, is very succinct. The file focuses on the primary information we use to weed out games before digging deeper with other sources.
The one thing that baffles me is why they persist on not updating the current year’s data until 7-10 games into the year. They instead insist on just posting the static data from last year. Earth to Computer Sports World, last year’s data will not change.
I did make the mistake of calling and asking and was simply told the in house writers asked for them to not update until there is more data. One could argue limited year to date statistics has limited value. But again, considering last year’s stats could be put into a permanent file for the writers, the customer could then not have the decision made for him that the first week’s worth of games has no handicapping value, but somehow what happened the previous season does.
Buyer beware that CSW is essentially worthless until a week or so into the season.
All in all, even now a good source, but the relative Johnny-come-lately sites have diminished Computer Sports World’s value even after once they get around to acknowledging a new year has started.
Score One for ESPN
One of the most commonly asked questions on the posting boards is “what is your favorite site for scores?” Though sometimes there are some technical glitches, ESPN’s “Real Time Scoreboard” (part of ESPN Insider) is unbelievable. Just to give you an idea, sometimes I will be listening to the game on my satellite radio and the slight radio delay is behind “watching” the play-by-play on my computer.
Sadly ESPN must kowtow to the hypocrisy that exists in America about gambling. Otherwise it would be nice in college sports to have a scoreboard that is close to real time without having to sift through worthless games that are not in the offshore rotation.
Dynamics Change in the Postseason
I know there is one handicapper out there who most of his handicapping is based on the home/road variances. That’s been a part of our handicapping for years. But the key for a quality handicapper is one who knows when and how to make proper adjustments.
One of the great examples is how the considerations must be adjusted for the NBA playoffs when it comes to weighing home and road performance. On one hand, the fair to middling teams often will have much larger attendance and for all teams generally more enthusiastic home crowds.
However during the regular season, the travel schedule disproportionately benefits the home team. Teams playing their fifth game in five nights or third in four nights are usually the road team. Depth isn’t as much of an issue as teams shorten their bench during the postseason.
Of course this would apply to both home and road games, but a deep bench paid dividends the most was during the regular season was in the midst of long road trips, a situation that does not apply to the playoffs.
Don’t get me wrong, home and road records are still huge in our analysis during the postseason, but we balance with total awareness that tweaks must be made on a team-to-team basis.
Check out Joe Duffy’s new and notes for the sports gambler, compiled from hometown newspapers at JoeDuffy.net. Also check out the Handicapper’s
Sampler, which is the daily rundown of top sports service plays.
