Fantasy WRs
By Chris Goudey
Inspin.com Contributing Writer
Now that you have my quarterback and running back rankings for the upcoming season, it’s time to give you my rankings for the last really important position in fantasy football, the wide receivers. Most leagues require that you start at least two WR and sometimes as many as four, so knowing which guys are going to produce is crucial to your success.
If you read my past two articles, you know I think RB is the most important position to fill, followed by QB. WR is then the third-most important position, but the problem with the WR position is these players are very inconsistent for the most part. A good RB is going to be much more reliable week-in and week-out, while even the top WR might get 150 yards one week and 20 the next. A good pass defense can really stifle a WR’s numbers, so while it is important to get 1-2 top WRs, you can also play matchups every week by picking up guys who will be facing poor pass defenses.
Another reason I don’t focus on WR as much during the draft is because every year there are guys who come out of nowhere to become good players. You can almost always pick up at least one really good WR on waivers during the season, while that is almost never the case with QBs and RBs. Anyway, now that you know my rationale on the position, on to the rankings.
The Top 12:
These are the guys you should focus on getting in the first 5 rounds. As I’ve said before, by the end of Round 5 you should have your 2 RBs, your QB, and your top 2 WRs. You should be able to get at least 1 of these top 12 and probably 2. These are ranked in order of preference.
Steve Smith, Carolina – Assuming his preseason hamstring injury is healed by opening day, Smith is the clear No. 1 guy, in my opinion. He is the most intense WR in the game and is a huge producer because his QB, Jake Delhomme, trusts him implicitly. Smith will get more balls thrown to him than any other WR, and assuming he stays healthy should put up another dominant season.
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati – If Carson Palmer is healthy to start the year, Johnson is my No. 2 guy. He is the face of the franchise, and because Cincy has a great second WR in T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Johnson cannot always have double coverage. Look for Johnson to continue his consistent dominance.
Torry Holt, St. Louis – Holt has really become the most consistent WR in the game the past 2-3 years. He is QB Marc Bulger’s favorite target, and even though Mike Martz has left town, new coach Scott Linehan knows what he has in the Bulger-Holt connection.
Terrell Owens, Dallas – Yes, T.O. is a pain in the you-know-what. Yes, T.O. has many off-field issues. Does it affect his on-field performance? Umm, no. The one thing any of T.O.’s coaches will tell you is the guy takes enormous pride in his ability and is a very hard worker on the field. Look for Owens to really try and make amends for his past discretions and be the good soldier. He knows Bill Parcells isn’t going to put up with any of his antics, and while Drew Bledsoe is an old QB, he still has a great arm and the ability to make T.O. the No. 1 WR in the game again.
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis — Harrison just keeps doing what he does, which is consistent excellence. He does have a stinker of a game every now and then, but he is rarely injured and by the end of the year, always has the same great numbers. With the defection of Edgerrin James to Arizona, look for the Colts to throw even more, and for Harrison and running-mate Reggie Wayne to reap the benefits.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona – This is my breakout candidate of the year. Fitzgerald has all the tools to be the No. 1 guy, and now that he will have a good running game to take the pressure off him and QB Kurt Warner, he should really take a quantum leap up the rankings this season.
Randy Moss, Oakland – This could be the lowest Moss has ever been ranked going into a season. This is a make-or-break year for him. He’s not getting any younger, and now that he has a strong-armed and mobile QB again in Aaron Brooks, he could very well return to being the Randy Moss from 2-3 years ago. Moss has been injured off and on, so if he can stay healthy and with the Raiders’ penchant to throw the deep ball, he might just be a bit undervalued.
Hines Ward, Pittsburgh – Ward has always been underrated, but with last year’s Super Bowl performance I’m guessing he might actually be a bit overvalued this year. He is probably going to see more double-coverage than ever, and if Ben Roethlisberger shows any ill effects from his offseason accident, it could be a bit of a down year for Hines. On the flip side, he is Big Ben’s favorite target, and with the departure of Jerome Bettis, the Steelers should throw more near the end zone so he could have a few more TDs than he has had previously.
Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis – As I stated above with Harrison, Indy is going to have to throw more this season, so Wayne’s numbers should hit new career-highs. Harrison is also getting older, so Peyton Manning might try to establish more of a connection with the guy who will be his No. 1 in the near future.
Chris Chambers, Miami – There was no more productive WR in the 2nd half of last season, and that was with Gus Frerotte as his QB. Imagine what he can do with the talent of Daunte Culpepper taking over the job this year! Chambers is the clear #1 WR in Miami, so look him to become Culpepper’s next Randy Moss.
Anquan Boldin, Arizona — Boldin is going to get a ton of yards this year, as teams will have to focus on James and Fitzgerald. The only question on Boldin is how many TDs will he score? Now that the Edge is in the backfield and Fitzgerald is becoming a star, Boldin might only see a handful. He is the ideal guy to target as your 2nd WR, but you might have problems if he’s your #1 guy.
Roy Williams, Detroit – Well, we know how much success Torry Holt has had the last few years. A lot of that was due to the offense designed by so-called genius Mike Martz, and Martz is now the offensive coordinator in D-Town. He will want Williams to play the Holt role in the offense, and if he can get decent QB play from Jon Kitna/Josh McCown, will have a career year.
2nd/3rd WR:
None of these guys should be targeted as anything but a 2nd or 3rd WR. They are all good players but not at the elite level. I wouldn’t draft any of these guys before Round 6.
Deion Branch, New England
Andre Johnson, Houston
Donald Driver, Green Bay
Santana Moss, Washington
Plaxico Burress, NY Giants
Darrell Jackson, Seattle
Joe Horn, New Orleans
Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati
Sleepers:
All of these guys have some huge upside this year and will move to new heights with solid QB play and a lot of balls thrown to them. These players will be undervalued, so you might try and wait until later rounds to pick them up:
Lee Evans, Buffalo
Reggie Brown, Philadelphia
Matt Jones, Jacksonville
Drew Bennett, Tennessee
Nate Burleson, Seattle
Mark Clayton, Baltimore
Roddy White, Atlanta
Senior Citizens:
These are all veterans of the league who will be more reliable and should do well as a 3rd WR for you. All of these guys will still have plenty of passes thrown their way:
Muhsin Muhammad, Chicago
Derrick Mason, Baltimore
Rod Smith, Denver
Laveraneus Coles, NY Jets
Isaac Bruce, St. Louis
Eddie Kennison, Kansas City
Keenan McCardell, San Diego
Terry Glenn, Dallas
Eric Moulds, Houston
Question Marks:
These players could be huge or could be total busts, depending on their situation. If you’re a risk taker, target these guys ahead of the Senior Citizens above:
Javon Walker, Denver
Donte’ Stallworth, New Orleans
Antonio Bryant, San Francisco
Jerry Porter, Oakland
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
Antwaan Randle-El, Washington
Rookies:
None of the rookies drafted this year will make much of an impact fantasy-wise, but here they are:
Chad Jackson, New England – Should be the best of the rookie class, might end up with the starting job and is probably not a bad pick in the late rounds.
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh – Has had off-field issues and is the #3 WR in Pittsburgh, at best.
Sinorice Moss, NY Giants – Santana’s little brother will be the #3 guy. With Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey at TE, and Tiki Barber catching passes out of the backfield, he will not have many opportunities.
Super Sleepers:
These are the guys to target in the late rounds and might be those “players who seem to come out of nowhere” that I was discussing earlier:
Ernest Wilford, Jacksonville
Eric Parker, San Diego
Samie Parker, Kansas City
Mark Bradley, Chicago
Cedrick Wilson, Pittsburgh
Doug Gabriel, Oakland
Arnaz Battle, San Francisco
Charles Rogers, Detroit
Troy Williamson, Minnesota
Roscoe Parrish, Buffalo
Rod Gardner, Green Bay
Bryant Johnson, Arizona
Tyrone Calico, Tennessee
Hopefully you now have a better handle on this important position, but as I said don’t freak out if you don’t get 2 top WRs. All you have to do is pay attention to the box scores and your waiver wire each week and you should be fine. I guarantee there will be at least one guy that I haven’t even mentioned that will be starting on someone’s team at the end of the year. That’s just the way the WRs roll. Good luck!