Preseason results are worthless in
predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12
straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became
the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.

While in the NBA and
MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come
out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy
pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL.
The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three
Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in
those years was 7-12-1.

While appearing in
four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In
practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All
he did after that was–in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom
Brady fashion–efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl
victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes
from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those
who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player
rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the
regular season NFL odds. Even the
Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in
false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is
a good example. Arizona
is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how
far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports
wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
is enemy No. 1 at the sports books.
His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports
service GodsPicks.