The Washington Redskins and the Indianapolis Colts kick
off the 2008-09 football betting season (official
handicapping preview). Sports
betting offers are rare opportunity for likely dividends during a tough
economic period. Gamblers do their own version of “offshore drilling”.
The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said
that championships are won in the preseason.
Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire
preseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading
to the Super Bowl. But I digress. The
thrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason as well.
I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and
percentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began
handicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.
The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try
to foretell preseason battles. The
belief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many
nameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be
getting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs.
True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based
on fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the
contrary.
The reality is that smart players realize that such
mentioned disadvantages actually apply to the oddsmaker and not the
gambler. With the proliferation of
offshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting
advanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and
more towards the player, well at least to the wise player.
Preseason lines
are made now a week in advance. After
the first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding
contest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.
The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with
a lot more uncertainty that the bettor does.
Of course lines do adjust—sometimes over adjust based on this
information and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still
limited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed
by line shoppers and “middle” players.
“Bette Middlers” is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.
Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason
football. Rarely is there a game in
which coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key
player rotations as well as injuries. It
is not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that
a team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or
many analogous situations.
As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive
schemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr.
Rozelle, that’s what they are). But yet
when teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players
projected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts,
blitzes, etc.
But because the purpose is for the players to learn a
system and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost
never kept secret. However rarely in
preseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research
uncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while
the opponent is going to keep it
straightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.
There are eternal issues that affects how critically each
team approaches a particular preseason game, such as new systems on both or
either side of the ball, the number of established veterans on each team who
will only play some token downs merely for timing and getting in shape, the
number of positions and roster spots up for grabs, individual coaches
philosophies on how to approach a preseason game. The inventory really never ends.
But so often the coaches and key players own comments will
give strong insight into whether or not there is an enormous dichotomy in how
each team is approaching a forthcoming game.
Inevitably a coach especially one of a young or perennially losing team
will flat out state something to the effect, “We need to instill a winning
attitude and habit early. We want to
enter the regular season with some wins under our belt.” Not-so-uncommon annotations like that set off
sirens at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com
The Dallas Cowboys for years were one of the great
preseason go-against plays, especially during the “Triplets” era of Irvin,
Smith and Aikman because most of the key starting positions were already etched
in stone. Whether or not Jimmy Johnson
or Barry Switzer was the coach, the Cowboys played future Arena Football
players using the most basic schemes.
Read those newspapers and you will find that on any given
preseason weekend, there will be several matchups in which one team will be
play key members longer than their opponent or that one team because of
injuries and precautions will be much more shorthanded at kickoff than their
foe.
It is always important to keep a close eye on teams whose
first and second string players were on one side of a dominating
performance. So often such will effect
how much work the key players will get the following week. If a veteran first unit outscored their foe
14-0 one week, there is a good chance that they be given little work the next
week. But do not assume this to be the
case. Hometown newspapers leave little
to speculation by printing coaches’ answers to the obvious questions.
It is a pretty good general rule of thumb that teams off
of humiliating losses will come out with vengeance the following week. But there is a reason that I qualified such
statement with “pretty good” and “general”.
Final scores can be deceptive in any and all sports but such is the case
even more so in preseason football.
If a team loses 28-7 but the first and second teams were
outscored 21-0, while the mop-up guys played evenly, it is a huge difference
than if it were visa versa. The third
and fourth stringers if totally outplayed are digging ditches and contacting
the Barcelona Dragons. But if it were
the primary players who were humiliated, they are the ones who have a fire lit
under them.
It is much more important to look at how the respective
top two units played than the actual final score. However one must very much take into account
all the extenuating factors involved entering the game, as illustrated
above. Perhaps a teams top two units
were shorthanded against an opponent who used complicated schemes breaking in
new systems. But I do love betting on
teams whose first and second units got a good ole fashioned no-excuses butt
whipping to rebound accordingly.
One has to though find that fine line between going with
all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly
so with the public jumping on the same side that you are.
I honestly can not give a definitive scientific
explanation of exactly how my handicapping has been complimented so well by
line moves, other than to know that it defies any laws of probability. But
somewhere there is a congruency amongst my handicapping techniques, the opening
line and public perception that affects the line moves.
I can with full honesty say that in preseason just as I do
during the regular season; I win a lot more than I lose. However so many times if early in the week I
pencil side A as a play only to have the public bet side A so much that the
line moves enough to scare me off of the game, only to have side B cover both
ends of the line move. Somehow there is
a complimentary congruency in my handicapping that increases my winning
percentage even further.
But all factors equal, I very much like going against
preseason line moves of
or more points. When those moves are not justified by the factors outlined
about, I often make selections based about 85% on unjustified line, moves. But line moves that I deem justified more
times than not results in a no-play.
The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and
postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a talented handicapper realizes that, he
has taken first step towards a nice regular season bankroll. But after that, it
still takes research, research, research…
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