Should I go with, against or ignore the public consensus?   What do I do with line moves?  Are they one and the same?  You ask some good questions.

Probably at one time or another you have joked, or maybe were quite serious when you said something to the effect, “Bet against my buddy, JoeBagOfDonuts.  Every game he picks, he loses.”

I knew a old hand sportsbook clerk who maintained fervently that every time some loudmouth came into his sportsbook and bragged that the oddsmakers were giving away money on a particular game or that a line was so far off, then plopped down $25 on such a “sure thing”, the clerk would immediately go to another casino and bet the other side.  He vowed that about 70 percent of the time, the big bragging, small-playing egomaniac would lose.

In actuality, the basic philosophy behind that is very compelling.  Fading public consensus plays can be actually be a very genuine and priceless starting point of handicapping.  A little known fact is that the oddsmakers very much study public betting trends when making the line. That is, in many circumstances, the linesmaker before he even posts a line, knows that recent data shows that the public is going to lean towards betting Team A against Team B, regardless of what the line is.  Hence a team that should be a 14 point favorite is posted as a 16-point chalk. Just an extra half-point here and an extra point there can prove huge over the long run.

The great equalizer would of course to have the exact information of which teams are overpriced because of public perception.  As we like to say, you can use the oddsmakers knowledge against them.

I have heard both first hand and second hand stories about guys who ran parlay card operations (for amusement only of course) who every week would compile a consensus from among their hundreds of participants.

They would then bet against all of biggest consensus plays and do very, very well.  We have found that the public consensus plays as found at contest sites such as Bigguy and Wagerline have been very accurate in measuring public perception.  Generally the top consensus plays at those sites and from outlaw information that we get fairly parallel.

I only consider something above 70-percent to be significant enough for “fading” purposes.  Consensus plays that overwhelming are often few and far between, but just like in everything else that we do, we set the bar very high.

However, so often the public confuses line moves and “public plays”.  Line moves are much more affected by the sharp player than the majority, thus merely tracking line moves does have some value, but is not a foolproof indicator of fade plays.

That’s why I compare the information that I get from my outlaw book acquaintances, offshore contacts and compare them to the Internet contest sites.  When all such information coincides, we have the chance to fade sucker plays.

Schleps can be of great value to smart players.  The more you fade them, the brighter they begin to look.

The author, Joe Duffy has his picks part of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com A long-time veteran of the sports betting industry, Duffy got his start at Dial Sports 976 Dial It service and eventually became the most decorated scorephone handicapper in history.

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Fenway Park in Game 4 of the ALCS.
The Rays will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Andy Sonnanstine in this game. Sonnanstine has a 14-9 record and a 4.34 ERA this season.
The Red Sox will counter Sonnanstine with Tim Wakefield. Righthander Wakefield has a 4.13 ERA to go along with a 10-11 record this season.
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
B.J. Upton went 2-for-5 with a three-run homer as the Rays walked past the Red Sox 9-1 to take a 2-1 lead in the ALCS on Monday.
Tampa Bay cashed as +170 road underdogs as the game played over the 8.5-run total listed by oddsmakers.
Rocco Baldelli also had a three-run jack for the Rays, while winning pitcher Matt Garza allowed one run over six innings for Tampa Bay.
Jacoby Ellsbury drove in the lone run for Boston, as Jon Lester gave up four earned runs over 5 2-3 innings to take the loss for the Red Sox.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 97-65 SU
Boston: 95-67 SU
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Boston are 5-5
After playing Boston are 9-1
After a win are 6-4

Boston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Tampa Bay are 6-4
After playing Tampa Bay are 3-7
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Boston is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Boston home to Tampa Bay, Thursday, October 16

What a day to sit and watch television. No not just to follow the news about the Tommy Bowden firing at Clemson Tigers football and being replaced by Dabo Sweeney, the Tony Romo injury making Brad Johnson the Dallas Cowboys starter, or the Tony Gonzalez rumors, but to watch and win bets.

It’s the ALCS game three (betting preview) between Boston and Tampa, the NLSC between Philadelphia and Los Angeles and Monday Night Football between Cleveland and New York Giants. 

Christopher Columbus may have discovered America, but the power of 620 sports services behind every selection discovered winning bets. Marcia Brady sometimes known as Maureen McCormick may claim she and Eve Plumb has drug addictions, but if you are addicted to winning, here is the objective rundown of the top sports handicapping picks.

Jared Lindsey a handicapper out of Sarasota, FL is among the Top 5 handicappers all sports combined since 1995-present. Stats are out of 620 services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per play. We release his 5* plays. He is No. 1 again in MLB from August 1 until today. His 5*s in MLB are now on a 29-10 run. Another 5* Devil Rays/Red Sox

Sports service out of Las Vegas is No.1 for 2008 in MLB. Playoff Best Play Of the Year Dodgers/Phillies

It applies again, the same MNF stat you’ve won with many times. Statmaven Sports is No. 1 all-time on as far as plays that have risen to the level to be re-released. Rankings trace back to the 976-LOCK scorephone. Like all elite sports service, Statmaven considers units won, not deceptive winning percentages to be the say to measure systems. However, the best ROI in sports applies on tonight’s MNF side. A super system that is 22-1 specifically on MNF applies tonight. However extended to all true national TV NFL Games (Sunday Night, Thursday and the late season Saturday games) the angle is a stunning 53-9 against the spread. Giants/Browns side

Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years has now taken over the North American sports scene. His group has now merged with Danny Ying of SuperLockLine fame. Pop’s syndicate is the most requested source of winners in the history of the SuperLockLine and MasterLockLine.  Today get the MNF over/under from the handicapper hotter than Vanessa Hudgens make out pictures with Bobby Bones.  

Get the three big sides for $16 Click now to purchase

GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com added the NLCS winner! We have the side and total for Monday Night Football up now, the Giants-Browns. If long-term profit means anything to you, of course you are already a permanent client of GodsTips. For the rest of you, we are ahead in college football and off a winning preseason, GodsTips is also way ahead in the regular season. Sweep MNF. Click now to purchase the best in the handicapping business for $17 Click now to purchase

The founder of forensic sports handicapping is on a 9-2 run in football. Get the Rays/Red Sox side, Phillies/Dodgers over/under and the Giants/Browns side. The Monday Night Football game is supported by a 100% angle and as always we tell you exactly what it is. Click now to purchase

It’s the Tampa Bay Rays taking on the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALCS. The sportsbooks have Jon Lester and Boston as a 180 favorite over Tampa Bay and Matt Garza with a total of 8.5 under -115.

Tampa has lost 5-of-6 with Garza and they are 5-11 on the road with him -7 units. Boston is a mind-boggling 16-2 at home with Lester +13.8 units. In fact, going back to last year, they are 23-4 at home with him and 41-13 the last 54 with him on grass. They have won 6-of-7 with Lester overall heading into this game.

Tampa is hitting just .252 for the year on grass and a horrid .248 on the road. Boston though is hitting just .234 in their last seven games.

The Rays are 33-67 on the road to left-handed starters and 63-136 on the road against teams with a winning record. Boston is 42-12 at home to teams with a losing road record. Tampa has lost seven straight to Lester. The BoSox are a scary 46-11 at home in the series, yet Tampa has won 8-of-11 overall meetings recently.

Some over/under betting trends tell us that Boston has gone under at a 7-0-1 rate after allowing five or more runs last game.

Who wins? Check out MasterLockLine.com as they are on a typical 20-5 recent tear and even better long-term in football betting, so find out the Giants-Browns victor as well thanks to power of 620 sports services behind every selection.

It’s Christopher Columbus Day 2008 and there are no federal holidays for sports bettors. The Giants and Browns will play in Cleveland on Monday Night Football, and there’s both ALCS and NLCS games on the schedule too as the Red Sox host the Rays and the Phillies again play at Dodger Stadium. Here’s your Daily Sports Roundup.

The Gridiron Spotlight

The Browns were supposed to compete for the AFC North division title this season, but after four games they’re just 1-3 (and 2-2 against-the-spread). Cleveland, though, is at least coming off their first victory of the season – a 20-12 road win over the Bengals. The Browns’ first three matchups were losses to the Cowboys, Steelers, and Ravens.

The Giants, on the other hand, are a perfect 4-0 (and 3-1 against-the-spread) on the season. New York completely crushed the Seahawks last time out, going up 27-6 by halftime and cruising to a 44-6 victory. Eli Manning went 19-of-25 for 267 yards passing in that game, with two TD strikes, while Brandon Jacobs ran for 136 yards and two TDs.

The oddsmakers opened the Giants as 7-point road favorites in this contest, but that line has increased to 9 points since the start of the week. The total is pegged at 43.5. If you are depending on Neel Kashkari to turn the economy around, it’s time you turn around your personal finances and invest in the sports betting market. Don’t sell your Jeremy Clarkson Paddington Bear on Swaptree.com, as the world’s best sports handicappers are winning big time. The USPS and bank holidays only mean your check clears a day later.

There is never a better option than GodsTips when it comes to betting Monday Night Football. No handicapper dominates any sport the way Joe Duffy’s GodsTips does the NFL. They clinch yet another winning week with the side and total tonight for just $17. Click now to purchase

Other Notable Events

The Rays/Red Sox series will shift to Boston for Game 3 on Monday, with the set tied at one win apiece. Boston will send Jon Lester to the mound on  Monday; the lefthander has given up just one unearned on 10 hits over 14 innings so far during the postseason. Tampa Bay will counter with Matt Garza; the righthander has had just one playoff start so far in 2008, getting roughed up for five earned runs on seven hits over six innings.

The Phillies and Dodgers will stage Game 4 of the NLCS on Monday. Derek Lowe will get the ball for Los Angeles in that contest; the righthander took the loss in Game 1 of the NLCS, giving up three runs (two earned) on six hits over 5 1-3 innings of work. Countering for Philadelphia will be Joe Blanton; the righthander pitched against the Brewers in the NLDS, allowing just one earned run on five hits over six innings pitched. The power of 620 sports services behind every selection is hotter than Jenna Shea and has both the Rays/Red Sox and Phillies/Dodgers winners. See the home page of OffshoreInsiders.com for more details.

The Rest of the Schedule

The NHL has seven games on its schedule for Monday, including a pair of matinees: St. Louis plays in Toronto at 1:00pm ET, and the Islanders host Buffalo at 2:00pm ET. The other five games are all at night, and include New Jersey at the Rangers, Vancouver at Washington, Detroit at Carolina, and Nashville at Chicago. Also, the Flyers will be looking to shake off an opening-night defeat on Monday when they take on Montreal.

As well, there are three Canadian Football League on the schedule for Monday. Hamilton and Montreal get things started at 1:00pm ET; the Alouettes are 12-point home favorites, but the Tiger-Cats upset the Als 44-38 last week. In the 4:30pm ET game it’s Saskatchewan at Calgary (-5.5). That contest is also a re-match from last week – the Roughriders pulled out a 37-34 win over the Stampeders in that first game.

News from the Wire

LB Antonio Pierce is listed as QUESTIONABLE for the Giants on Monday night, while each of WR Domenik Hixon, DE Jerome McDougle, and T Kareem McKenzie are PROBABLE . . . S Sean  Jones, T Kevin Shaffer, DE Shaun Smith, G Ryan Tucker are all QUESTIONABLE for the Browns. Listed as PROBABLE are S Mike Adams, DT Shaun Rogers, WR Donte‘ Stallworth, and RB Jason Wright. TE Kellen Winslow was pegged as QUESTIONABLE for Monday night on the team’s official injury list, but reports out of Cleveland suggest that he won’t be in uniform when kickoff rolls around.

A Peek at the Future

Game 4 of the ALCS is set for Tuesday night in Boston, while Game 5 of the NLCS is on the schedule for Wednesday night in Los Angeles . . . early college football action this week includes Florida State at North Carolina State and BYU at TCU on Thursday night, and Hawaii at Boise State on Friday night . . . the Sprint Cup Series will return to the track on Sunday afternoon with the TUMS QuikPak 500 at Martinsville Speedway.

Nobel Prize

Did you think Andy Martin would win? Personally, we believe eating champion Joey Chestnut should win the Nobel Prize for Medicine or something.

As expected, the increasingly political Nobel Prize chose Paul Krugman, the New York Times columnist for the Nobel Prize in Economics. Krugman certainly benefited from his constant attacks on Republicans as recent winners, ala the Academy Awards, have had a socially progressive agenda. Krugman’s winning give him cache in his attempt to help Barack Obama defeat John McCain and the political betting odds say that the Republicans chances have all but faded.

Will McCain acknowledge he’s been “my own worst enemy” and swing for the fences in Wednesday’s Presidential Debate? Keep an eye on the odds and see it McCain/Palin can come up with a game changer.